Analysis of Recruiting Classes
I admit, this current stage of the program sucks. I hate losing. I hate losing close games. I hate losing to rivals.
With that said, It is interesting to look at the effectiveness of Harbaugh's first recruting classes:
2013 (Hokes Second to Last Class) 27 Commits, 14 Reasonably Contributing (Just 5 available as RS Seniors)
2014: (Hokes Last Class) 16 Commits, 8 reasonably contributing (This years true seniors)
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2015: 14 Commits, 7 reasonably contributing (and he had a couple weeks to pull this class together)
2016: 29 Commits, 23 reasonably contributing
2017: 30 Commits, 12 Already making some contribution as true freshman. (Jury is out because of redshirting)
Let's put this in context -- More true freshman are seeing the field then true seniors. There are more members of the 2016 class contributing, then 2013-2014 combined. In a game where experience and age/development matters... that is heavily skewed against our favor.
Lots of young guys are gaining valuable game experience. Next year, the 2016 group will be Juniors with 23 of them having experienced significant game time. I know the sky is dark now, but I think we will "turn the corner" next year behind a killer running attack and smothering defense, and DPJ/Black/Gentry/McKeon making things interesting in the passing game. I like the direction the DNA is pointing.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:00 AM ^
OP, I appreciate the anaysis, but out of context, it's meaningless. It needs to be compared to OSU, MSU, PSU. More freshmen playing than seniors may just be indicative of the fact that the seniors had their chance and didn't pan out or they transfered or they went to the NFL or any number of reasons.
The problem is that when we have Hoke or RR, it's about the coach but when we have Harbaugh, it's about the players.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:12 AM ^
Since you seem to not like Harbaugh, and may well want him fired (like GordonG), maybe you should just go follow another team? Because he isn't going anywhere. Just something you need to deal with...
November 20th, 2017 at 8:33 AM ^
I would, but my only 2 degrees are from Michigan, so while Harbaugh may go someplace else, I will not.
Also, it would be nice if you had some facts, data, evidence in your posts instead of just being an asshole.
EDIT: I don't think Harbaugh should be fired, because I don't think there are any good replacements, but so far, Harbaugh has not been a below average Head Coach (money aside).
November 20th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^
"Harbaugh needs to make serious changes on O or needs to be fired."
-- jblaze, just two posts up...
I don't know what your definition of "serious changes on O" are, but it's probably something that won't happen. Taking a guess, it probably means firing some combination of Drevno/Hamilton/Frey/JBaugh.
I do think that someone on the staff will move along, but I don't think it will be a 'firing'. Probably some mutual change with a good landing spot - nothing that hurts a reputation. If you're also talking about offensive philosophy, you're going to be disappointed. We both know that the Harbaughffense is a heavy run-first deal, and it's going to continue being that. We also both know that Harbaugh will continue being the top guy deciding offensive direction. He wants to establish a pro-style passing spread - todays equivalent of what used to be the West Coast. If you're looking for something like Leach's Fast Break, or Swinney's version of college spread, it isn't going to happen.
Clearly, the choice is yours - get behind Harbaugh and the team, or find someone else that satisfies what you want in a team.
As for myself, I was solidly in the 'fire RR' and 'fire Hoke' camps (before my MGoBlog days) when it was clear they were going nowhere. But what I still see in this Harbaugh-led program is something that not even 2011 came close to - a team playing a team game, doing team things. The program is so much better now, even looking at 8-4, than it was then...
November 20th, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:07 AM ^
Can you name 1 game where Michigan upset our opponent while Harbaugh was coach? Perhaps MSU last year when they won 3 games? I'm not sure there is any other example.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:25 AM ^
the B1G champ
and before people whine "they had injuries on defense", it still doesn't explain PSU's offense only scoring 10 points
November 20th, 2017 at 8:30 AM ^
Michigan was a 15 point favorite in that game.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:38 AM ^
defines being a good coach, then Meyer and Saban suck because they are never the underdog
kind of a dumb way to evaluate a coach
November 20th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
Yup, so Harbaugh, Meyer and Saban are all the same, except one of the 3 has never won a championship and 1 of the 3 isn't the favorit 99.9% of the time.
My point is simply, when has Michigan won a game we were not expected to win?
November 20th, 2017 at 9:21 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
If JH had not turned the careers of so many Hoke guys around, and say the team had gone 7-6 in 2015 and 8-5 last year, with only a few guys drafted rather, nobody could really be all that disappointed with being 8-3 right now and having two shots at getting to 9 wins.
Instead, JH turns the team around immediately in 2015, comes inches short of a CFP appearance last season, and now he's suddenly terrible because we're probably going 8-4 in a season full of bad breaks?
Everyone around here is disappointed that things haven't gone our way this season. But the trajectory of the program is still fantastic.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:09 AM ^
Any reason to bitch, right?
November 20th, 2017 at 9:13 AM ^
sure the bowl win against Florida was an upset. Talking heads and bettors thought Florida was going to win.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:06 AM ^
next season if Peters gets hurt McCaffrey should be able to fill in
QB is the most important position - we looked SO much better against Wisconsin with Peters in there rather than O'Korn
Harbaugh did a great job bridging the QB situation from Hoke to his guys - got Ruddock and O'Korn to compete with guys here to make sure he had options
we lose so little and our depth will be soooo much better next year do that when someone like Lavert gets hurt we aren't throwing true freshman in the line-up
28-9 during the 3-years of transition and roster turnover - I think Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Florida, etc. would have killed for that.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:27 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:48 AM ^
Michigan needs to place a premium on recruiting QBs that can take thier head being repeatedly slammed into the turf or targeted by a 300 lb. defensive lineman and not miss a single down.
November 20th, 2017 at 9:23 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 9:42 AM ^
I totally agree that this is not Harbaugh's fault. The major problem we have right now is youth on the offensive side of the ball. But here's the problem that will remain. Many of our best players on defense are either sophomores or juniors. Most of the sophomores probabably won't matter except Gary, who likely leaves for the draft after his junior year. The offensive however is a year behind the defense. So when we start to rebuild the defense the offense should be just coming into their own. Ufortunately, the roster is not yet in a place to have both sides of the ball at a high level at the same time yet. Next year is probably our best bet, but I'm not sure how good the offense will be. They will surely improve, but they still probably won't be the sort of offense that will win you games. They will still have holes at RT, who knows what the QB will be like, and the WRs are still yet uproven. The defense hopefully will be lights out. Then, the following year the offense may become really good, but the defense will be rebuilding. We just aren't in the place where we're reloading yet. This is also where IMO burning RSs hurts us.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
I'll disagree with your analysis because of todays defense. Using your justification, this year's defense should not be very good becuase it's dominated by 1st and 2nd year players. But it's pretty damn good. As time moves forward, today's players gain experience and get even better. The guys coming in behind them (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, etc) will get time to learn the system, see some game action without being overly relied on, and be ready to step in when the experience in front of them departs. I don't see a dropoff here. The same will happen for the offense, but it might take another year before its reliable - as you also stated.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
the starting defensive line was all in the 2-deep last year
2 of the 3 LB played a lot last year
the safeties played some last year
going into the season, CB was the big concern, but they have played well
having an experienced DL helped a lot
the only true freshman contributing significantly on defense is Solomon, a 5-star
November 20th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
This is exactly my point! Today's guys all saw time last year as backups, mostly not a lot of time, either. But they got some experience. And the same will be true for the new guys (ie: young guys) next year - they'll get time on the field in a backup role to be ready to step in. Most of todays starters were last years backups. This is how depth is built - backups get experienced so they can step in as starters...
November 20th, 2017 at 11:34 AM ^
a defense rotates in more players - the offense not as much
our WR and TE's that were here last year hardly played - but the TE's are doing OK, with Black even the WR were getting there
the 2 young OL that did play are doing decent/ok (Onwenu, Bredeson)
QB - we were bringing along Peters this year and were doing well against Wisconsin with him
FB - Mason is playing to replace the senior FB
but we are young AND inexperienced on offense
we all knew 2017 would be our bad year - by comparison it is - when our bad years aqre 8 win seasons life has recovered from the disastrous RR/Hoke era
November 20th, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
We agree, I think we're just saying things a little differently. But yes, I completely agree with this. Even though offensive backups dont' see as much PT as the defensive guys, they still get time working with the 1's and 2's, and with the coaches, in practice. The redshirts and 3-4 strings guys don't get that level of time (during the season). Peters' only started working directly with Pep, and with the 1's and 2's, when Speight's neck was broken.
It'll be okay moving forward, but this season has been a worst case come true.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
Using your justification, this year's defense should not be very good because it's dominated by 1st and 2nd year players.No, this year's defense is dominated by mostly sophomores and juniors. The sophomores will probably be back for the senior years minus Gary. But, we'll lose Winovich, Mone, Kinnell, & Gary. Maybe a guy like Hill would go after his junior year, but I doubt it. So, what does our starting defense look like in 2019? SDE - Kemp DT - Dwumfour? NT - Solomon WDE - Villain/Paye MLB - Bush OLB - Uche Viper - Hudson CB - Hill CB - Long SS - Woods FS - Metellus Taking Gary off the line really hurst us unless Kemp gets much better at pass rushing or we find a suitable replacement. Maybe Villain can bulk up and play there?
November 20th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
That already looks like a pretty strong group of starters. But Donovan Jeter will likely be in the mix to start at SDE or 3T, and possibly James Hudson if he doesn't stick at OT. It's also possible M lands one of its better DT targets in the 2018 cycle.
At linebacker we just signed a ridiculous class (Ross, SIngleton, Anthony), with McGrone coming in 2018. I'd expect at least one if not multiple guys from that group to make it into the starting lineup, with Uche remaining a pass rush specialist.
Safety is probably anyone's guess. I would expect Metellus to stay at SS and then look for a guy like JKP or Hawkins to start at FS. But there will be a ton of competition back there and a lot of these guys are very young so who knows.
November 20th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
All the guys that are starting now we saw a decent amount of. We all knew Gary, Bush, Hill, and Hudson had potential as they saw action last year. We've never seen the LBs before. I for one am not ready to annount anyone that I've never seen compete in college. DPJ was the #1 WR coming out of HS and he's OK, but not exactly an all conference player or anything. If that's the #1 guy at his position, I don't have a ton of confidence in the #5, 8, or 9 guy at his position in his first college action. So, until I see some of the LBs play, I'll assume they are not ready yet. And, Gary's pass rush will really be missed. I don't know how we're going to replace his production. Solomon will be good. He's proven he has ability. But, Kemp I haven't seen much from yet and Hudson and Jeter haven't played at all. So, all that unknown is not confidence inspiring.
November 20th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
Your points are valid and I think most reasonable fans understand there was a significant gap in contributing talent and those reasons have been gone over ad nauseum.
But, even given that it is reasonable to expect that Harbaugh would be able to beat at least 1 of MSU, UW, PSU or OSU on coaching alone. I think that is where the dissapointment lies. Three years in and UM keeps finding new ways to lose close games. I think that will change but it is still frustrating.
My only real gripe is Pep. He has done nothing as an OC to warrant being at UM. He is there because he knows Harbaugh. That is not a meritocracy. His long developing passing game gets QBs hurt as we have seen this year. I hope if he stays he proves me wrong.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
we are 2-1 vs. PSU
1-1 vs. UW
1-2 vs. MSU - 2 losses, a fluke play and 5 turnovers
0-2 vs. OSU - one loss in double OT
we are on par with these teams despite 2 recruiting classes with huge holes in them
November 20th, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
win one of those four games and the frustrations with the rebuilding year are eased a bit. They still have a chance with OSU.
You can rationalize losses all you want but the fact is the only close win against a top team is UW last year. I think that changes but to act like UM is on par with teams they cant beat because they take them to OT or because they turned it over 5 times just makes no sense.
My original point was if one or two of those close losses went the other way the whole narrative changes. They didn't and I think that is where the frustration comes from. But I dont think that has much affect on the long term trajectory of the program which is overall still headed in the right direction. Just the way I see it.
November 20th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
we are a combined 4-4
how is that not "on par" with them
and that is despite the fumbled snap, 5 turnover game, etc.
OSU is the only team we need to beat, but I'll argue OSU isn't nearly as formidable as when JH came to Michigan - they have been blown out twice this year - once at home - with a 5th year senior QB
I believe we are on the same page as in believing the future looks good and disagree as to how "bad" things are night now
November 20th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^
Not on par was harsh. I think I was thinking more in terms of perception but maybe I am a little harsh with perception because of putting more weight on the MSU, OSU games and the way those were lost being so hard. It makes me overlook the PSU and UW wins.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^
In my opinion, it's the pass protection of the O-line.
If that single issue were not an issue, this season may have unfolded drasticly better.
> Perhaps QB X doesn't get injured or rattled. (X can be any of our QBs this year.)
> We actually pass the ball successfully more, resulting in a more unpredictable and balanced offense. O scores more points. Also, less fumbles perhaps.
> Because we pass the ball more, our running backs don't get dinged up (Higdon, Issac).
> Because our offense can sustain more drives, our defense isn't on the field as much and doesn't get as dinged up (Hill, Gary, etc). D gives up less points.
The only injury this season I see that doesn't directly or indirectly result from the poor pass protection of the O-line is Black (WR). Of course another injury or two could still happen. Maybe Perry's injury is unrelated to the O-line and of course there would be others in this parrallel universe. But it would've had to have been better than what we had.
Man, I wonder what this season would've been like had Newsome been available. Or heck, if JBB started at RT and was even medicore at pass protection.
Summary: I don't blame Harbaugh for this year's crappy O-line pass protection, since the Newsome injury and poor O-line recruiting put him in a tough spot. I feel he mitigated the issue best he could this season.