ESPN: PSU has 81% chance to beat M, 22% chance to beat OSU

Submitted by WichitanWolverine on
Title pretty much sums it up. Saw that this morning on Sportscenter. This is according to the FPI algorithm. I guess the FPI doesn't account for the fact that we beat them by 39 last year while OSU lost to them. /disrespekt
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MGlobules

October 1st, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^

we're looking closer than most. All of us would likely admit, though, that we have yet to play to that potential on offense, despite a host of great players. Believe this team can do it--and that the bye week was a godsend--but gotta improve to win out. 

On a slightly different note, do you think Don Brown and Jimmy are devoting a little extra time to how to solve PSU? I'd exchange less comfortable wins next week and at Indiana for a PSU win!

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 47659

funkywolve

October 1st, 2017 at 3:03 PM ^

UM doesn't have any great players on offense. In a year or two some of these players will probably be great but right now, no. There's now way the UM staff is looking ahead to PSU. Every game UM has played has been tight on the scoreboard late into the 3rd quarter, if not into the 4th quarter. They aren't taking any teams for granted, especially a rivalry game.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20232

RedRum

October 1st, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^

MSU. Beat state, go Blue! I expect a close game but secretly desire for a blood letting. Let's put little brother where they feel most comfortable, a second rate Big Ten team complaining about Ann Arbor.

Joined: 08/20/2017

MGoPoints: 21512

mgogogadget

October 1st, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^

since when are any points less relevant than others? That's a unique argument. I believe the goal is still to score as many of them as possible, by any means possible. I'd say PSU accomplished all they needed to against IU, and there's no reason for their fanbase to worry about the quality of that win.

Joined: 08/22/2017

MGoPoints: 1388

gbdub

October 1st, 2017 at 5:10 PM ^

IU limited Barkley to 39 yards running. You dismissed the relevance of this, because they scored 45 points anyway. But if half their points weren't created organically by the offense, then IU's ability to limit Saquon is indeed relevant.

Joined: 02/16/2010

MGoPoints: 26761

mgogogadget

October 1st, 2017 at 5:34 PM ^

I didn't dismiss anything. Are you really saying that if Michigan beats MSU by 31 next week, you'll lament any particular area of the team the Spartans may "shut down"? If Michigan loses to PSU the same way Indiana did, nobody will celebrate the moral victory of holding Barkley to 39 yards. This is all just another way for a contingent of mgobloggers to downplay how good the Nittany Lions are. They've won with Barkley getting numbers and without. The only game that was close was Iowa, and that game was statistically dominated by PSU.

Joined: 08/22/2017

MGoPoints: 1388

AmayzNblue

October 1st, 2017 at 7:07 PM ^

He's trying to help you learn (with great sarcasm) that it's "couldn't care less," which would indicate that you care so little, there's no care left to give.

"Could care less" indicates that you care some or a lot and there's room to care less than how much you currently care.

Just here to help.

Joined: 01/10/2015

MGoPoints: 5016

MGoCombs

October 1st, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^

I don't even mean this to even be a criticism of Franklin, but he's gaming all of the metrics after what happened last year, and I don't blame him (note, I don't think they should have made the playoff either way). He's not letting some numbers and perceptions keep them out of the playoff in the event of a loss, so they are going balls to the wall for four quarters and running up scores against bad teams. This really throws off measures like FPI.

Like I said, can't blame him after him and many others feel like they were kept out for this reason.

Joined: 08/13/2009

MGoPoints: 3849

Perkis-Size Me

October 1st, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^

Not unreasonable. On the road at night in Happy Valley. Extremely difficult place for any team to win a game. PSU also has arguably the best player in America on its team. And he’ll be running with a vengeance after Michigan shut him down the last two years.

The defense will keep Michigan in the game, but the offense has to step the fuck up and do it’s part. Long drives ending in TDs that keep Barkley off the field.

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105744

BoCanHam15

October 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^

To beat App State at home. Hmmmm... Who cares about % it is just a guess and a metric that just doesn't weigh human participation. It's so important FEI, ABC, BBD, the East Coast Family. Thanks for the posting I'll tell McCray personally about the guarantee of a 81% chance to lose so that he can put it into his practice regimen for Happy Valley.

Joined: 07/08/2016

MGoPoints: 16100

gbdub

October 1st, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

Remember what happened to Michigan's 2010 offense when they ran into teams with the talent and coaching skills to limit Denard without selling out on him? That's what will happen when the all-Saquon offense meets Don Brown.

Joined: 02/16/2010

MGoPoints: 26761

socalwolverine1

October 1st, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

We beat Penn State pretty convincingly at Happy Valley two years ago. No it's not the same team (much worse with Hackenburg), but my point is we actually play pretty well historically in their stadium, which we can't say the same about at Iowa.

Joined: 10/08/2012

MGoPoints: 1235

victors2000

October 1st, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^

We've beaten them 3 straight; we gotta be doing SOMETHING right. If O'Korn has grown as a QB and what we saw in West Lafayette wasn't because the coach that benched him was on the other sideline, we stand a much higher chance of beating the Nittanies than 20%. I actually can't believe someone wrote that.

Joined: 03/21/2009

MGoPoints: 12912

SD Larry

October 1st, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^

some reason it was, I would head there and take quite a bit of that bet with glee.  Our defense gives us a reasonable chance to win any game PSU can play.

Joined: 10/05/2014

MGoPoints: 40986

PurpleBeaverEater

October 1st, 2017 at 6:17 PM ^

Isn’t there a stat out there where Barkley hasn’t gone for over 100 yards on the ground against us in his career?

Joined: 10/20/2016

MGoPoints: 522

AmayzNblue

October 1st, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^

3 weeks away from that game. A LOT can happen in that time frame. I find it hilarious considering PSU has beaten...no one. they scraped by Iowa and their best win of the season is against Indiana. Cumong man!

Joined: 01/10/2015

MGoPoints: 5016

SC Wolverine

October 1st, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^

There's a lot of assumptions behind those numbers.  We are soon going to find out which assumptions are right.  I'm looking forward to a momentous October.  If we can get the offense going, watch out about those assumptions.

Joined: 08/18/2010

MGoPoints: 7794

pwnwulf

October 1st, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^

They’re 6-7 in white out games so the white out really doesn’t intimidate anyone. They barely beat Iowa and Saquon Barkley rushed for a whopping 56 yards on 23 carries against a bad Indiana defense. We will smash them in their house just like we did in 1997. Penn State isn’t that good and the media just hates Michigan until they prove everyone wrong.

Joined: 09/20/2009

MGoPoints: 61