It is very simple and I just can't understand why people who should know football just turn a blind eye to there problem. They have no............defense.
They lost to Pitt, who beat Clemson.
They got SMOKED by Michigan.
then..they played Maryland...Minnesota, and lucked into a win vs OSU. Don't kid yourself, Ohio State is miles better than Penn State. They had 276 yards vs Ohio State in that game. Then they finished by giving up 31 points to Wisconsin, and 52 to USC. They gave up 30 or more points 5 times. And Trace McSorley was a 58% passer last year with an NFL caliber WR who hasn't been replaced.
They do have an easy schedule though...so they are likely to have a good record whether they are a top 5 level team or a top 25 level team.
Being in Happy Valley at night for a white out game is a complicating factor (Harbaugh still hasn't instilled in me faith that he can win important road games at Michigan), however, last year we held Barkley to 59 yards on 15 attempts (3.9 ypc) and 0 TDs and in 2015 we held him to 68 yards on 15 carries (4.5 ypc) BUT 56 yards of those came on 1 carry (also no TDs). The long run removed, he went for less than a yard each carry.
Harbaugh seems to have an answer for Franklin's use of Barkley. Hopefully, that continues. Barkley has been under constant distress when he's played against us.
having an incredible 2 deep d-line on 2015 and 2016. Pretty simple.
Hopefully 2017 d-line two deep ends up just as good.
For the reasons you mentioned, even though Barkley is a threat on every touch. Much more worried about our inexperienced DBs going against their very experienced passing game (gonna need to apply a lot of pressure on McSorley) and about our ability to move the ball with an inexperienced O line playing in a very tough atmosphere that will almost certainly have their defense flying around.
on the part of the fanbase. That single game, because it is so available in our memories has completely and irrationally outweighed their other outcomes last year and the circumstances of that game aren't being considered (at Mich, tons of injuries).
Funny because we got absolutely blasted by OSU the previous year, and we discounted it because of our full body of work and we knew we'd be good in 2016 based on all the other overwhelming evidence. What we're doing with PSU is like if OSU fans thought we were way overrated coming into 2016 because of that one outcome, which would have been wrong, obviously.
But also OSU was ranked #1 to start that season, and was coming off a national championship..and lost pretty much no one in the offseason.
Also, James Franklin is their coach.
August 5th, 2017 at 12:29 AM ^
One game can definitely impact how fans feel about a particular team or player. The 49-10 game is rather meaningless given how much better they got by the end of the season and also other circumstances about that game.
First of all, they were missing 7 starters. WR Blacknall, DT Cothran, DE Schwan, LB Cabinda, LB Wartman, LB Bell, and CB Haley. Also, both back-up middle LB's didn't make it through the first half (one thrown out for targeting and then his replacement tears his ACL 5 minutes later). They had to burn a LB's redshirt in the middle of the game. That game was so easy for us offensively cause they were so depleted up front and they were already replacing a lot of guys in the front 7 coming into the season. We just ran the ball all day long and wore them down.
They were also in month 1 of a new offense and a new QB. Pretty young team vs. arguably the most experienced, oldest team in CFB last year on the road in their stadium.
I also don't think Barkley not running for many yards against us means anything for future match ups either. We've dominated them in the trenches the last 2 years. And he still made a number of big plays against us last year even with no help. I like our D-line heading into the season, but they will be better on the O-line, and we will not have the same depth.
I'm curious to see if they can build on last seasons momentum and how they handle heightened expectations, but nonetheless, this is an infinitely tougher match up than years past.
August 3rd, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
part of me thinks theyre getting this year's ND / USC / Georgia treatment where This Is Their Year TM, but part of me knows Moorhead is pretty good as well.
Then again, they are coached by Field Goal Franklin...
It's why they play the games
did anyone pick psu to win the big 10 last year? no. didnt most figure michigan would? yes. so in other words alot of people were wrong. every year people think they have it all figured out, but are wrong. i cant buy into psu either. just look at the lucky shit they had happen to them at important times in so many of their games. what is amazing is they didnt win the rose bowl too.
two plays and michigan is undefeated and playing in the championship game. i just find it difficult to give psu that much credit when michigan destroyed them, minny had them beat the next week at happy valley, and both osu and wisconsin were on the verge of blowing them out.
all seasons for great teams hinge on a few plays every year. why would this year be any different? and dont forget who had clemson crowned after pitt, a 5-4 team beat them at home.
How could OSU, who lost to PSU, have been on the verge of blowing them out? I'll hang up and listen.
a very one sided game, with OSU dominating.
But OSU never fully put it out of reach and PSU got some (1) incredible luck and (2) the benefit of some terrible officiting to somehow win late.
Age old lesson: If you let a lesser team hang around, weird things can happen. Gotta put the dagger in when you have the chance.
on the obvious pass interference late in the 4th was also a necessary condition to PSU win.
PSU was down 21-7, but they drove 90 yards for the TD to make it 21-14. That TD drive was not preceded by a blocked punt.
It was simply the case of the OSU defense being unable to stop PSU's offense from going nearly the entire field for a TD, thus making it a close game again.
The blocked punt happened on the NEXT OSU drive. PSU got a field goal off the short field. The EXACT same thing, of course, happened in the 1st half --- OSU getting a FG off a short field on their own blocked punt.
drive depend on a McSorley jump ball long pass?
It was a 5-play drive:
1) wide-open 16 yard pass to Geiscki. OSU was lucky Geiscki fell down upon catching the ball, given there wasn't a Buckeye within 10 yards of him. OSU was lucky the play didn't go for 30-40 instead of 16.
2) Barkley run for 37. Good read-option by McSorley, froze Bosa for the necessary split-second to get Barkley into space.
3) The "jump ball" pass to Blacknall. Call it a "jump ball" if you want - what I saw was Blacknall beating Lattimore to a spot, Lattimore had (uncharacteristic, for him) poor coverage. Lattimore barely even had his head turned around when the ball arrived.
4-5) 2 plays to get it in from the OSU 2.
but as your are a PSU fan I am sure that your recollection is better.
But the larger point remains. OSU had controlled PSU for much if the game and held a 2 TD lead in the 4th quarter. I got that much correct, right?
PSU's comback win did involve a string of improbable events. Several big plays in the 5 play TD drive. The blocked punt (or was it a blocked FG?). Plus, there as a non-call on pass interference on a longer OSU pass that probaby would have put OSU in position to score, right?
PSU won. But I would say that OSU was the better team overall in 2016. I mean I see it sort of like the Michigan-Iowa game. Michigan was the better team, but lost anyway. It happens.
Yeah, I get that PSU fans will see it differently.
Bill Connelly's put the odds (based on the play-by-play of the game) of a PSU victory at 36%.
That's lower than 50%, of course, but victories in such games aren't that rare. PSU was at 35% odds (Connelly's numbers) of beating Pittsburgh. Consider the Pitt & OSU games as 2 independent events, and it's a 58.4% chance PSU wins at least one. As did actually occur.
Given the head-to-head win, it's a reasonable opinion to have them better OSU for 2016 as a whole. The converse is a reasonable opinion too. S&P+ had U-M at #4, OSU at #5, and PSU at #8 FWIW. The OSU/PSU spread isn't that enormous - neither in the individual game or for the season as a whole.
At least PSU finished reasonably well --- nice win over Wisconsin and a respectable Rose Bowl performance (Connelly's odds of PSU winning were 53%).
Compare vs. the way OSU ended 2016: 2 consecutive very fortunate victories vs. the Michigan teams (17% chance of winning each per Connelly, OSU literally rolled snake eyes), then the Clemson train wreck. There's nothing good about that at all! They STUNK! I honestly don't understand why more folk don't talk about that this off-season.
you make a very solid case for the proposition that PSU was actually slightly better than OSU late in the year (or at least that it is a toos up). PSU ended strong, and OSU ended sort weak (big Clemson blow out and close/fortunate wins over M and MSU).
But I doubt your argument can get a fair hearing in this board. M fans, myself included, simply have that 49-10 game burned in our minds. We look at that game and then start with the strong presumption that PSU's good record and end of season play was more a good team rolling double 6s several times over (until the very last minutes of the Rose Bowl) than a genuine top 5 team.
But the national writers are with you it seems.
the team with the below-average OL (e.g., PSU 2016 vs. Michigan 2016) is in an extremely tough spot. Perhaps the most important battle of units in a game. U-M was simply a very tough match-up for PSU in 2016, and I think U-M would have defeated 2016 PSU in almost all scenarios -- no matter what the time in season/place/injured PSU LB situation/et cetera.
OSU, conversely, was a much more favorable match-up for PSU in 2016.
IMO the Michigan fans have reason to be confident about the PSU game. No doubt. I don't think the DL vs. OL match-up will be quite the scale of mismatch in 2017. But it's still should be "edge U-M" there. And winning that battle can make up for a whole lot of other negatives (road game/night game/who matches up against Geisicki, et cetera).
It sounds a bit crazy - but I honestly think home vs. U-M will prove tougher for PSU in 2017 than OSU in the Horseshoe.
Good posts and conversation!
August 4th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
Even 11Warrors disagrees with you. PSU targeted Arnette on the play before the TD, and he got burned.
Then the TD pass --- 11Warriors calls McSorley's pass "perfect."
Also --- why did Godwin get wide open on 3rd-and-8 earlier in the drive? Stop that play and the subsequent TD never happens! Stop that and it's OSU 12-0 at the half and a different game. In retrospect, a key play in the game where OSU simply came up short. Nobody to blame there but the Buckeye defenders.
What I don't understand --- given that OSU had TWO cornerbacks who were drafted in the 1st Round, why weren't THEY making plays in this game? Godwin beats Conley on 1-on-1 on the 1st PSU TD. Lattimore gets turned around on the big play to Blacknall that set up PSU's 2nd TD.
All this "PSU only beat OSU because of jump balls" is a bit of revisionist history. Your best defensive backs simply came up short that evening.
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2016/10/75742/five-t…
you didnt see osu with a 2 td lead late in the game and psu looking dead?
That's a very good point. I think for a lot of us though, last year's domination is obviously fresh in our minds, but if you go back two years ago to @PSU, we handled them pretty well then too. Crushed Hackenberg and Barkley only had 68 yards rushing. Even before that Hoke beat Franklin in his worst season. Factor in that most of McSorley's success last year seemed to come from 50/50 balls and hopefully those should average back out.
So I guess for me, until proven otherwise, I'm gonna assume Harbaugh will best Franklin. I also just find it hard to respect Penn State in general.
I think we will lose there. It's really hard to win on the road at night.
I still think they will lose a couple as well though.
@ Iowa
@OSU
are likely losses for them IMO.
That Nebraska game might be a game too.
They're ranked pretty high for a 2-3 loss team.
Sure, it's hard to lose on the road at night...unless you have Alan Branch and friends
They will lose to northwestern.
For reference, 2015 OSU beat Michigan 42-13 and not a single person here thought it was unrealstic Michigan could beat OSU in 2016. Especially when Michigan returned most everyone and OSU lost most everyone. I don't know why the exact opposite logic applies here with PSU, but it does. As a neutral observer to PSU v. U-M, it's funny.
The 2015 DL was hurt badly by injuries. A healthy DL and Uofm plays OSU close. I think there is a diffrence between thinking UofM is better than PSU, and thinking UofM will dominate PSU again. Only reason i'm worried is being on the road at night.
...if you push on it just a little it falls apart.
True, OSU had a lopsided win over M in 2015. But that game was not really comparable to M's lopsided win over PSU in 2016.
In the former, M-OSU was actually a competitive game in the first half. OSU really pulled away in the second half (spurred by a dumb M penalty late in the 2nd on an OSU punt from their own endzone). The final score was more lopsided than the actual contest.
In the latter, M dominated PSU from the opening kick and the score could have been a lot worse. The athletic contest was actually more lopsided than the final score.
Moreover, you are using a straw man argument. Simply not true that "not a single person" in this thread thinks PSU can beat M in 2017. Some posters think PSU should be favored. Some think it will be close. And some think M should be favored. That is not the same as (or even remotely comparable to) "not a single person" posting on MGoBlog thought that M beating OSU in 2016 was "unrealistic."
Nonetheless, the general point that M's lopsided win over PSU in 2016 is less relevant to predicting the 2017 outcome than some (not all) posters here think is probably a valid argument.
I felt pretty good going into your game in 2015 and 2016. Durkin mailing in his defensive gameplan from Maryland played a little bit of a role, but we had no way of knowing at the time. OSU pulled away convincingly. Congrats.
Last year we got completely fucked.
Make no mistake Meyer tried to score as many points as he could and the announcers even commented on it. As far as this comparison there is one big difference and I and many others have mentioned it and that is psu defense is not all that good this year. Teams will move the ball easily on them. Know if psu gets the officiating that osu got last year that will make the game much more difficult. By the time this game is played psu will have a loss and out of the top ten. Michigan will be favored by at least a touchdown.
As discussed above, your memory isn't great (at least w/r/t PSU game) so who knows? But what's your point? Running the ball near the goal line is showing compassion?
Urbz could easily have been trying to prove a point by running "Zeke" multiple times inside the five ("Vaunted defenses my ASS. We just rammed it down their throats!"). Again, congrats. A similar approach in 2016 resulted in our DL spending the day in your backfield.
August 4th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
Well, congrats on your moral win against PSU. Yay! Moral victories!
OSU was indeed able to move the ball in the 1st half. But Michigan also had some success on offense. It was 14-10 at the half.
Ruddock got injured. Durkin had a terrible defensive game plan (and no adjustments at half time!). OSU played well. Result: Blowout in the 2nd half.
But consider the box score.
OSU had 25 first downs (a lot). However, M had 20 first downs (and that includes most of the 2nd half w/out Rudock). Time of possession was almost even. Yardage favored OSU 482-364.
Now consider M-PSU in 2016.
M lead 28-0 at the half. Yardage: 515-191 favoring M. Time of possesion: 36 to 24 minutes favoring M.
Two different types of games.
agree more than disagree.
I am not arguing that the 2015 Game was a close contest.
Only disagreement is that I do not think that it could be considered similar to or fairly comparable to the M-PSU 2016 game.
The latter was much more lopsided than the former. Again, compare the first downs, time of possession, halftime scores, etc. etc. of the two games. Not really the same. At all.
Your original point was that some posters here are being hypocritical becasue they were arguing that (1) PSU has little chance to beat M in 2017 b/c M won 49-10 in 2016, but (2) failed to apply "exactly the same logic" to conclude that M had little chance to beat OSU in 2016 despite losing 42-13 in 2015.
If the 2015 M-OSU game is not really similar to the 2016 M-PSU game, then there is no inherent contradiction and no case for applying "the exact same logic."
M played OSU at home in 2015. PSU played us on the road. That matters quite a bit. Playing in front of the home crowd we were able to hang for a quarter and a half, but they completely shredded us after that. Both games were blowouts. The fact we kept it close for a little bit, is mostly outweighed by us playing at home.
But yes, your last paragraph is spot on.