NBA experts think Wagner definitely, and Wilson probably, should come back to UM for 1 more year
Obviously most people on the board wish both of them luck either way, but if both come back, with the players that'll be here next year, it could be really special.
There's not a lot of hype around Derrick, but he had an amazing year and there was this quote:
“Kudos to Derrick Walton. He had a monster season and he’s probably likely a D-League player. He shoots the absolute cover off the basketball and when you look at all the guys who are point guards in this draft after the first five, I just watched him give (Oklahoma State’s) Jawun Evans fits.
“Some people think Jawun Evans is a first-rounder and he could not guard Walton.”
Both need to come back. I hate seeing "Players with potential" leave early for the draft and then dissappear into the D-League or at the end of the bench, especially when they are our own.
Wagner and Wilson have potential to be lottery picks. Why not give it one more year and ensure a 1st round pick? Maybe even win a championship or go to a final four
Quite a few Foreign players
Few 4 year college players
or even in the D league, they're making a lot more money than they would in college. And they're getting more opportunity to develop their games. So if they don't make it from there, they almost certainly wouldn't have made it by going back to school. Very selfish to say you hate seeing players make a living.
and I've grown sick of your lousy posts on the topic.
The idea that players can't develop their games on the NCAA level is asinine.
There's a reason that the NBA has moved to favoring players who come in ready to play and contribute over kids who won't contribute at all once you move past the lottery probably and definitely the first round. You don't want to be in the NBDL and you definitely don't want to go there undrafted or from the 2nd round.
If the NBA wants guys who are ready, where do you think those players are coming from - gasp - guys who improved their game in the nurturing environment of college basketball, where, in the better programs, or better coached programs, the coaching is better than in the NBDL.
I'm sick of posting my link to my study, but it suggests getting 4 years of prep in college is the key to a longer career if you're not in the first round. Because, holy shit, what a crazy concept, it gets you ready to contribute.
There are plenty of guys who might not have made it passing through the crapshoot that is the NBDL who most certainly made it coming from the solid base of 4 years in college.
Very counterproductive of you to keep pushing an agenda and an opinion that is not only wrong but also bad for the players and for the university you claim to be true blue to.
Also, Shaka Smart isn't shit compared to Beilein in developing stretch bigs and I'm tired of you running us down on that count, as well. Stop it.
and I'm pretty sure you have the wrong guy, buddy. It looks like your spat was with "bluesalt"? Dunno, but this is hilarious.
1) I never said players can't develop in college. That's ridiculous. Of course they can develop. They get 20 hours of instruction, they play good competition if they're in a top conference, they get high quality instruction on many teams.
But that pales in comparison to the development and quality of instruction they get playing in an NBA system. Looking at your analysis of first rounders in the study you refer to illustrates the point perfectly: If you are being developed by an NBA team, you're much more likely to succeed than if you're not spending your next 2-3 years in an NBA system. We actually had a very reasonable discussion about this topic when you posted two years ago, but they gist of the entire discussion seems to be that 1st round is better than 2nd, which, of course. There is no evidence that staying more years in college is better.
2) To that end, I strongly believe that players who aren't gauranteed to be picked in the first round or to be signed to a deal in the second round (i.e. a team promised to sign them) should come back to school. But the notion that someone that is late first round should come back to try to move up in the first round (which as you illustrated doesn't impact years of service to a large extent) or the notion that someone who left early and sat the bench for a couple years in the NBA would have had a better career outlook by coming back is misguided and wrong.
If DJ is hearing that he'll go in the late first round, I wouldn't fault him for going and would argue that he probably should go, because a bird in the hand. As much as I'd like him to come back, it'd be tough to pass up the chance to go in the first round. And it wouldn't necessarily mean he made the wrong choice if he flames out of the league when his contract ends.
3) The idea that an innocuous five line post by random internet guy (me) could be bad for the university or the players is..I don't even know, man. Again, I'm certain you're thinking of the wrong guy in this battle. I'm actually curious who it is because I'd be fascinated to read what is happening on this blog that you think is so detrimental to the university.
4) No clue what you're talking about re: Shaka Smart. Mo Bamba is crazy to pick Smart over Beilien if he wants to be a stretch big. JB and the Wisconsin coaches come to mind as the best coaches to play for as a stretch big. That's my on-the-record opinion. No idea how you have any impression otherwise. I went back a couple pages of my own posts because you had me worried for a second that I have split personalities. That would not be good.
You seem to be deeply committed to an argument that I consider both wrong and damaging to our program and players. That wears on me. It's in little touches like the constant references to 20 hours of instruction which is a bunch of bull. Any kid who wants to succeed is putting in a lot more than that outside of the regular program. It's probably double that, and I think you know that, and it bugs me that you keep trotting it out: http://www.businessinsider.com/college-student-athletes-spend-40-hours-a-week-practicing-2015-1
It's the constant building up of the NBDL, which I think is pretty crap, not an easy road, and a difficult place to build from if you want to be a league player. The stigma is less than it once was, but it's still there. In the building up of the NBDL, you advance arguments that suggest, like, I don't know, you've never been on a team or gone to college (again, I doubt this is the case). Nothing can compare to playing in games that matter, in games that people actually care about, in a team structure as part of a team's season where you learn to work together and be a useful piece of a larger puzzle playing against highly competitive opposition that is highly motivated to win each of those games and is backed by an actual fanbase that cares about the outcome of the games.
My study didn't just prove that the first round is better than the second round and I get annoyed when it's dismissed as such. My study provided strong evidence that the WHOLE first round was a marked difference between that and getting stuck in the 2nd round. The non-lottery slots were of great value, and I even ran a comparison to show the disparity of outcomes between the last 5 of the 1st Rd and the first 5 of the 2d. You don't want to chance ending up in the second. It's bad for your career. You also fudge things like "2-3 years in an NBA system" which is not the same as "2-3 years with, at minimum, some time with and a real commited connection to the big club." Frankly, most of these guys don't have to see the NBDL.
And if the NBA is a place where they don't care a lot about your continued development as a person, in the NBDL, you are surely on your own on that count. You're expected to be a professional, deal with personal development on your own time.
What my study also showed was that the one type of guy who flourishes from the 2nd round draft slot is a senior, who exits college a man and enters the NBA with a more developed game and as something approximating a man ready for the rigors of professional life. More research needs to be done, but the numbers I ran yielded dramatic results: a similarly situated set of 2nd round seniors served 37.63% of the possible years of service in the period studied, while their similarly situated 2nd round early entry counterparts served 24.92% of all possible years of service in the period covered by the study. That's a massive difference.
Because the 1st rd is such a big deal (and all that comes w/ being a 1st rd pick), I have a very hard time telling a kid with a *guaranteed* spot in the 1st rd to stay. That has never wavered from my initial assessment to today. I think both our kids are not likely to have guaranteed 1st Rd slots and I think in either instance, it is more likely than not that they will end up in the 2d round. At which point, enjoy long rides between shit city A and shit city B, playing for crowds that are more interested in balloon prizes and free seat cushions than the basketball being played on the floor.
My full response is longer, but that's all I have time for right now. I will cover why it's destructive for our program and why I find myself greatly envying schools like Wisconsin with their "4 year ethos" and the fact that this always seems to benefit both the player and the school in the long run.
Do D league players make more than Michigan graduates?
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Did you have that conversation with them?
hire agents, you know that they think they're ready? Whomever invited them to the combine thinks they're at least close, which is right in line with what they're thinking as they're getting evaluated but not hiring agents.
I think so too!!!
It's clear to me that Moe isn't ready. There's potential there (hello, Louisville) but he disappears in too many games and has a lot of holes.
Wilson just oozes potential, and I think he's a better prospect at this point, but he's also pretty raw. And I think he has the potential to put together his tools (distance shooting, explosiveness, basket protection) and become an absolute monster next year. It sounds like he's only a "maybe" for the first round this season, which makes coming back a good choice in my view, because I think he can be a top ten type if he blows up.
will help either player's draft stock that much. neither guys are going to be high draft picks. nba teams don't really care about production, they just care about potential, and they have already had enough film to determine neither player has potential worthy of a high draft pick.
imo, any decision they make won't really change their nba outlook, so it really comes down to whether or not they want to play another year of college basketball and live the college life, or start their professional careers (in whatever avenue that takes them...)
Wagner has SO much to learn about playing with consistency and at a high level. He'll get 20 one game, 3 the next.
Wilson needs to add about 35 lbs and prove he can handle post players, because that's who he will be guarding in the NBA.
He's listed at 240 everywhere I've seen. There is no f-ing WAY he should be be playing at 275, man. He just need to get more aggressive on offense and not try to avoid contact the way he does, get a little better at ball-handling and avoid the periodic mental lapses on defense and he could be an NBA All-star.
Weights of other top NBA stretch 4s, all of whom are 6'9 - 6'11 as well:
Kevin Durant: 240
Ersan Ilysova: 235
Nikola Mirotic: 238
Ryan Anderson: 240
Chris Bosh: 235
Kevin Love at 251 is the only NBA stretch 4 I could find that plays higher than DJ's current weight. And these guys have had a lot more years to add that old man strength.
There's a reason why NBA scouts are drooling over his size and athleticism. He is the prototypical NBA stretch four. I don't think they'd want him to gain any weight, certainly no more than 5-10 pounds and that'll happen naturally. Keep that quickness and bounciness. He'll very rarely guard post players in the NBA as a stretch four, and he held his own just fine against the likes of Caleb Swanigan and Ethan Happ to be servicable when he has to.
Was an emblishment, but dude needs to pack on some serious muscle to handle the NBA play.
And NBA scouts are "drooling over his size and athleticism?" Where? Everything I've read from NBA mocks and the recent reports say he's not ready.
Not ready does not equal "drooling over size and athleticism." Unless he develops a consistent game and understands how to play defense, he''ll be another guy that has all the raw athletic ability in the world but cannot stay on the court, ie Tony Mitchell.
And you are really, really underselling how physical Durant and Bosh are. If Wilson tries to guard them, they'll make him look silly both inside and out.
that he needs to play more physically, but that's (ironically) just about having the right mentality. He can't shy away from contact like he does too often. He still plays like a 210 lb twig sometimes and forgets that he's actually a 240 lb (sort of) beast.
Even still, you don't need to have muscle on muscle to play aggressively and Durant is exhibit A, B and C. Durant was an absolute twig when he came into the league and still mostly is. How physical you think he is has nothing to do with his size. It has everything to do with his metality and the way he plays the game.
Yes, scouts love DJs size and athleticism. Sam Webb has talked numerous times about how scouts rave about that. All the scouting reports are about how he's the prototypcial stretch four.
That isn't sufficient for them to think he's ready though (if that indeed is what they think). To suggest that being not ready means he's too small is wrong. The knock has always been that he plays soft and timid at times, which is true. He's nowhere near a lock to have a long NBA career but if he doesn't make it, it'll be for not having the right mentality, not for lack of physical ability.
I'm certainly not saying DJ is anywhere near the skill level of Bosh, Durant, et al, but his size is comparable to both. He needs toughness yes, not necessarily more weight.
You love talking about Tony Mitchell and I never know which one you're talking about. Alabama Tony Mitchell or North Texas Tony Mitchell? Either way, there are plenty of players that have all the physical tools and don't make it. Key here being that he does have the physical tools.
First, Durant is going to go down as one of the best players to play the game. To your point, even though he is not the most muscular guy in the world, he plays like it when he has to.
Chris Bosh is a bad example. He's almost 250. He's pretty damn built. Early in his career before he became Rashard Lewis, he could bully people in the post.
Maybe so, but scouts love a lot of player's athletic ability. That whole "drooling over his athleticism" thing is such a tired line. For the most part, everyone in the top 25-30 is going to be athletic specimens, unless they are those pure shooters, which there aren't many of in this draft so you are getting a lot of the same type of player.
He does need to put on some more muscle. He's a string bean, and putting on more muscle will hopefully give him confidence to be a bully down low.
Tony Mitchell= North Texas. That's my favorite example every time I hear about how scouts are "drooling" over someone's athletic talent. I can go back and find dozens upon dozens of guys that fit a similar mold, players who can jump out of a gym but that's about it. DJ has some range (needs to be consistent with it), and has the ability, but there's a ton more of his game that needs to be ironed out. He'll sink a few threes, and then he'll smash some off the side of the backboard.
Neither guy is ready, but my whole point in this is that unless he becomes a consistent threat and doesn't get bullied in the post, he'll end up being just like every other guy that has that athletic prowess but can't make a career.
Really? Wilson can definitely move into the lottery if he plays like he did in the BTT and NCAAT all year. Wagner can also move solidly into the first round with a good year at the 5. The money in the second round probably isn't worth the risk of coming out this year for both players.
cakes.
"and they have already had enough film to determine neither player has potential worthy of a high draft pick."
This is just fucking nonsense and I'll bet you based it on jack and shit.
People post such trash on this topic.
And teams cared enough about production to elevate Buddy Hield, who is doing fine.
Most importantly, another year could most certainly be the difference between the first round and not the first round, which is a crucial difference.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19343807/nba-execs-stay-draft-return-school
Wagner: "His is a small sample size, though."
Wilson: "They love his length and ability to be a versatile defender but are concerned that he has only done it for one year."
But yeah, I'll take mgoposter's word that they've seen all the film they want to see on both of our kids. Even though that hot take is directly controverted by the ESPN article that involves talking to actual NBA execs.
Couldnt be more wrong
They'll gain more expierence. Become better defensively. Bulk up. And the biggest factor is next years draft class wont as good as this years.
They'll be surefire 1st rounders next year. DJ WIlson could even be a top 10 pick with his size, handles for his size, and athleticism if he has a really good year. Right now both most likely arent even 1st rounders so how WOULDNT it help them to return another year?
From reading different sources it sounds like Wilson is looking for a reason to stay while Wagner is looking for a reason to go. Just my read anyhow.
Hopefully this is Wilson's reason to stay
but both would be better off after another year of getting stronger and refining their craft. I think that McGary would have been better served to go that route as well, but for the herb issue.
Wilson's gone, Wagner comes back.
I'd be amazed if both left. I'd be slightly less amazed if Wilson left.
News. So Bama is coming to take part in the championship run then right???
I still believe that the NBA combine could change things as it is made for both of these players.
ESPN thinks they both should return to school. I skimmed thread quickly so if this was already posted I apologize.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19343807/nba-exe…
further develop their skills and get a lot more consistent. They had flashes last season, but not enough to be drafted in the first round. But if they do come back, Michigan could be very, very good - especially by the 2nd half of the season when all the new guys are playing well together.
an NBA expert because I thought this from the very beginning.
I really like the players Beilein is in on for 18. I hope, selfishly, that Moe and DJ come back so that we get out to a strong start, especially in conference play. Some of these guys, Nance and Brazdeikis especially, are going to rocket up the rankings and a shaky conference start could doom us with them.