Recruiting with the Heavyweights (300+ final class rankings on 24/7)
First time as OP. I’d say “Be gentle”, but I know this board well enough by now to know that if you find this post worthwhile I won’t need the admonition and if you don’t… well… no amount of pleading will save me.
Since 2002 only 14 teams have finished with a final class rating over 300, an average of one a year. In 6 of those 14 years NO team cracked 300. So historically, that’s a relatively high bar to clear and a good sign of recruiting at the highest level.
I was spending some time this morning looking at how good our 2017 class might be when all is said and done. If we get all of the kids we expect to get (Singleton, Anthony, Collins, Filiaga) and a handful of others we’re not sure about (Harris, Solomon, Tufele, Gay, Slaton), we’ll finish with a 24/7 composite class ranking over 300.
Obviously Alabama and Ohio State are killing it this year and both are pretty much guaranteed to finish 300+ as well.
That got me to wondering how many times three teams have finished 300+ and the answer is… zero. It’s never happened in the 24/7 composite era which extends back to 2002 (I'm ignoring 2000-2001 because the numbers don't seem comparable).
What’s also interesting is that there is a fourth team, Georgia, who could join that particular party this year as well.
Below is the projection I saw using the 24/7 class calculator based on recruits with heavy Crystal Ball leans to each given school:
OSU: 318.52 (adding Jeffrey Okudah, Darnay Holmes and Jaylen Harris)
Alabama: 313.64 (adding Labryan Ray, Jarez Parks, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs… losing Najee Harris)
Georgia: 301.43 (adding DeAngelo Gibbs, Nate McBride, Tray Bishop, Leonard Weaver)
Michigan: 300.43 (adding Harris, Solomon, Singleton, Filiaga, Collins, Anthony)
Michigan is also in the thick of it for Jay Tufele, Willie Gay and Tedarrell Slaton. Adding any one of those would leapfrog us over Georgia.
Also of note… a lot has been made of OSU’s class this year. If they finish according to the projection above, that will make for the fourth best class ever (behind 2010 Florida, 2014 Alabama and 2013 Alabama). The Class Calculator doesn't give average player rating, but I suspect that's where OSU would be the top class in history. Right now they're at 95.72 which is well above the previous high of 93 and change.
While I recognize that cracking 300 would take a lot of things falling our way, I think the fact that we have a realistic shot at it two years into Harbaugh's tenure speaks eloquently about how firmly the trajectory of the program has changed under his leadership and how bright the future is for our beloved Wolverines.
Go Blue!
December 22nd, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
Source?
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
Sam has said it several times in the RR.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^
Everything is true! Trust the posts.
December 22nd, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
That first paragraph, man...
December 22nd, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
289.15 in 2013.
That was the class with Green, Kugler, Lewis, Morris, Charlton, Butt, et al.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
True, but you're also seeing middle-of-the-pack guys in that class being stars (Stribling, Smith, Hurts, D. Hill, K. Hill).
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^
Let's recruit more middle of the pack guys then.
/devil's advocate
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:40 PM ^
So that's a good benchmark for a successful or even great class. And people wonder why MSU had a 3-9 year? Low 200's or even a 147 like this year indicate a pretty blah level of recruiting.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 10:55 AM ^
Especially crazy to think Harbaugh is getting these top 25 guys to consider UofM even though he hasn't been able to recruit them for the full cycle.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
fewer 3-stars
the 3-stars we do have are all rated a 4-star on at least 1 site except Taylor
we should get as many 4 & 5 stars as anyone - that is what I look at as DCaff has been a 4 or 5 star all throughout
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
Yeah, I get that it's an uphill climb. If we get Najee Harris, it's very realistic. If we get Najee and Solomon both, it's very likely.
We'll just have to see how things play out, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
Even if we don't end up cracking 300, though, it will almost certainly be the best recruiting class we've had in the 24/7 era with many more comparable (or better) classes to come.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
Honestly, I think that 10-100 should almost be viewed the same. (NOTE: This is based on no actual data of any sort and could very well be the most inaccurate statement ever made on MGoBlog).
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
I keep asking myself what the attraction is for OSU/Urban Meyer to have this continuous extreme high level of recruiting success. It doesn't totally make sense to me and makes me wonder what the difference is between Meyer and Harbaugh and Saban for recruiting. No doubt they are all 3 great recruiters and coaches, but for OSU/Meyer especially to be this far ahead of UM/Harbaugh still doesn't add up - unless the key differentiator is that Meyer had some of these 2017 guys locked up pre-Harbaugh. Basically, I'm wondering if Meyer is "cheating", or if OSU's standards are lower, or if it's something else. Just seems to me that OSU (and Bama) are able to lock up 5 star and 4 star recruits much earlier in the cycle that UM/Harbaugh.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
I mean, he's not wrong.. He is putting guys in the pros at a great rate and they are competing for NCs each year. Not hard to see why a HS recruit would want to go there.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^
UF was when Meyer left. Despite what many may think UF has a strong and increasing academic reputation (No, not nearly in UM's league, but well respected. UF is an AAU member school). Gainesville attorney, Huntley Johnson, was Urban's MVP while he was at UF and helped keep significant off the field legal issues in check to keep players on the field. Muschamp inherited Meyer's mess and was told to clean it up, which is partially why he struggled. I am thinking though that Meyer is being more careful at OSU this time around, but their recruiting success suggests otherwise. Just doesn't quite pass the smell test to me.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^
"academics optional" too.
December 22nd, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
This. It's well know over the years from Katzenmoyer to Adulphus Washington to Cardale Jones that you don't have to do any academic work at Ohio State. Somebody will take care of it for you.
If you want to spend a few easy years until you turn pro, OSU is the place you go.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^
I think it's all about past success. They have the rings. Recruits know that those two programs will be in the thick of every title hunt for the foreseeable future.
Michigan has yet to prove that they are at the same level.
I think that Harbaugh will have us there in the next 3-5 years, though.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^
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December 22nd, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^
I haven't seen this referred to often, but we may look back to the Speight fumble as a turning point in the OSU dominance. If we score there, the game is over in a dominating way. OSU/Meyer's aura of invincibility is over (after just 2 years of Harbaugh). Will alter the recruiting balance in our favor, especially since Columbus is a crap town and OSU doesn't have the prestige of a UM degree. That loss delays our progress 2-4 years. I think a win strongly influences guys like Wilson, Harris, Browning, Solomon,etc to head our way, and makes us immediately dominant in the OSU matchup.
December 22nd, 2016 at 7:04 PM ^
If we scored there was still plenty of time left on the clock, so there is no "the game was over in a dominating way".
Got the ball right back off a turnover & scored anyway, so there really is no butterfly effect with this 2-4 year delay nonsense.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
No question, past success at BG, Utah, and Florida, and current success at OSU means a lot to recruits. He promises them championships and they compete for championships every year. Past that, Urbz is a very down to earth, likeable guy. I've met him through common acquaintances in Columbus area. He comes off as very humble, unassuming, and genuine. This has to play well with parents of recruits who are looking for a fatherly figure. Sustained sucess and "good guy" combined is a great formula for recruiting.
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
What is the attraction for recruits at OSU? They're 61-5 with a national title under Meyer. This shouldn't be hard to see what the attraction is.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:00 PM ^
is Jim Harbaugh's hugely successful record BOTH as a college coach and as an NFL coach. If I am a high school recruit those credentials surpass Urban Meyer's. But, I guess to each his own. Meyer does appear to have a good living room presents, which parents would like.
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^
That is a good take but what you're missing is that most of these guys getting recruited have confidence in themselves to be great wherever they are. They aren't depending on guys like Harbaugh to make them great all the time. So if I am great already and I am going to help whatever program I am in, do I want to win on top of that and get the glory of a NC as well? Michigan will be right there going forward too but if you take off the homer glasses it's pretty easy to understand why someone would go to OSU or Alabama. For me personally, if I was a recruit I would love to wear the winged helmet as I think our uniforms are badass and I have never like the stupid Alabama number on the helmet look as it reminds me of Indiana basketball where the personality is taken out of it.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^
Not having to play school could be a factor to some.
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^
Let's see, Bama and OSU are in the playoff every year and UM isn't. Nuff said. Once Harbaugh starts winning the B1G (hopefully next year), we will start getting our pick of players earlier in the cycle. Until then, he has to and does work his butt off. It will come, but Meyer and Saban have a big head start.
It sounds cliche, but "just win and recruiting takes care of itself....unless you're MSU"
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:59 PM ^
December 22nd, 2016 at 11:45 AM ^
Then put yourself in the shoes of your average HS recruit and have him look at a career record of 165-28, an OSU record of 61-5, and three National Championships in the last ten years, and fourth very possible this year.
If you're still surprised that Meyer is doing well recruiting then you have unusual notions of what 18-year olds are influenced by.
December 22nd, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
A couple years ago, when we were recruiting Da'Shawn Hand, there was a poster who was a friend of the Hand family and his HS coaches who put up some illuminating posts. Apparently, Meyer is very personable . . . I remember the poster saying how recruit mom's loved him. His track record is undeniable, in terms of National Championships and being a winner. I have heard that he is a pretty high character guy. OSU has put a ton of guys in the NFL, which is a major motivator. For HS students, they look at what a team has done lately, and OSU has done a lot lately, a whole lot more than Michigan. Looking at the last 50 or 100 years, OSU has done very well compared to Michigan. Academically, while OSU is a bit behind Michigan, the gap has narrowed. They are a much better school than they used to be. And let's be honest: a school that is good academically is important, but not critical to many football players. And while Michigan is very good, it certainly doesn't have the same rep as Stanford, let alone Ivy league schools.
You can't automatically assume that someone is "cheating" if they are doing well in recruiting. I think it is entirely possible that there are many players who love the success at OSU, fit well with the current students and the coaching, and want to follow their dream of playing in the NFL.
December 22nd, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^
Cardale Miss Class Jones
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December 22nd, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^
People love to (rightly) bag on that ridiculously stupid comment by Cardale, but two things:
1. He was a carry-over recruit from before Meyer. Likely would not have been brought in otherwise.
2. Meyer punished that mindset and comment immediately.
Another thing about the comment, people seem to always ignore the fact that Cardale was complaining that he was being made to go to class. If OSU was so easily letting him skate by on class, then he would have never complained in the first place.
December 22nd, 2016 at 4:21 PM ^
Try being objective about it.
OSU's brand is stonger than Michigan's to literally anyone who isn't 50+ years old. It's significantly stronger to anyone who is 17 years old, aka all the recruits you're talking about. OSU under Meyer has been to 2/3 of the CFPs, won a national title, is 5-0 vs. Michigan and has lost 5 times in 5 years. To further that point, 'Bama's brand under Saban is somehow significantly stronger than OSU's brand.
Quite frankly, it's more surprising Michigan has pulled itself to within striking distance on the recruiting trail of OSU and Alabama so quickly. That's a credit to Harbaugh.
December 22nd, 2016 at 5:19 PM ^
he has things no other college coach has - NFL success - far more than Saban
turned around a Standford program that was Rutgers-esque
he can speak more to what the NFL wants than any other college coach
and he went from 5-7 to 20-5 the next 2 years to jump start Michigan - he didn't get the recruits until 2016, after the first turnaround season
December 22nd, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^
Taking off my personal fan goggles, if I was a 4/5* player who was open to pretty much everywhere, not growing up a Michigan fan, I'd have a hard time turning down a coach whos lost 5 games in his 5 years coaching at the school, and look at something like 14 players getting drafted this past Spring and think "yeah I could see myself going here".
But I'm not a 4/5* athlete, I did grow up a Michigan fan, stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, and I hate Urban Meyer,