Can a one-loss, non-Big Ten champion Michigan make the CFP?

Submitted by M-Dog on
 
First let me start off by saying that if we win out, it does not matter what anybody else does.  We will have beaten likely Top 5 Ohio State and likely Top 10 Wisconsin.  We will be no worse than #2.
 
Even if we have one loss but still win the Big Ten, we are also in.  For the same reason Ohio State will be in if they win out. 
 
But can a one-loss, non-Big Ten champion Michigan make the CFP?
 
That road has actually gotten easier and more clearer, but certain specific things need to happen:
 
1) The fourth slot needs to open up by having two two-loss P5 conference champions out of the five conferences.  Despite the committee's window dressing in early November, a one loss P5 conference champion is getting in over any one-loss non-conference champion not named Alabama.  Root for Oklahoma over WVU in the Big 12, and Wash State or the Pac12 South winner over Washington.
 
2) Our one loss needs to be a close loss against Ohio State, and Ohio State needs to go on and win the Big Ten.  Imagine our cognitive dissonance in having to root hard for Ohio State to win the Big Ten the week after losing to them in Columbus.  But that's the world we live in.
 
3) Alabama needs to win out.  A one-loss Alabama that is not the SEC champion is going to steal a spot.  Because SEC bias is a real thing.  It was hard, but I was rooting for Alabama over LSU for this reason.
 
If those three things happen, we have a very good shot as a one-loss non-Big Ten champion.
 
Here is our competition in that scenario.  The list is very short, but very real.
 
- A one loss Louisville.  They scare me the most.  The influential media loves Louisville much more than they should, because they love Lamar Jackson.  But Hey media, that's what the Heisman vote is for.  Louisville's biggest "win" was a loss to Clemson.
 
- A one loss Clemson that does not win the ACC.  I think an ACC loss at this point kills them because it will be to a marginal ACC team, but they are still a threat.
 
- And that's pretty much it.  A one-loss Washington that does not win the Pac 12 is out versus us.  Just compare our games against common-opponent Rutgers and quickly move on.  A one-loss WVU that somehow does not win the Big 12 is out.  A one-loss Boise State is out.  
 
If the scenario above happens, it comes down to a beauty contest between us and Louisville.  In a rational world it should be no contest, but you never know.
 
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Perkis-Size Me

November 6th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

I doubt it'll happen until I actually see it happen. Washington will need to lose, Louisville will need to lose again, and we'll need to lose by no more than 3 against OSU in a back and forth, equal affair that even the most biased OSU fan would say could've gone either way.

Wisconsin and PSU will also need to win out, and even then, this all might not be enough.



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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^

Why would Louisville need to lose again?

They have no wins over the Top 20, and FSU can easily lose again to Florida giving them no wins over any Top 25 team.

Their biggest "win" is a loss to Clemson.

If you love Lamar Jackson's accomplishments, then vote for him for Heisman.  But the Louisville team's "accomplishments" are a different story.

 

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Outsidelookingin

November 6th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^

2 big things to watch early, Our dbs get away with allot of touching and grabbing if they start calling dpi early that's a bad sign, And watch and see how they're playing Barret/samuels...I think utilizing peppers as a qb spy will take care of barret running the ball. I'm hoping they keep strib on samuels most of the game

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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 4:21 PM ^

Big Ten Refs seem to be on a campaign recently against our DBs "handsy" play.  Someone must have gotten in their ears.

OK, fine.  Call it both ways then.  

Our WRs should not have to be fighting off the affectionate hugs they've been getting lately, especially like they got against MSU.

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Outsidelookingin

November 6th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^

2 big things to watch early, Our dbs get away with allot of touching and grabbing if they start calling dpi early that's a bad sign, And watch and see how they're playing Barret/samuels...I think utilizing peppers as a qb spy will take care of barret running the ball. I'm hoping they keep strib on samuels most of the game

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Outsidelookingin

November 6th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^

2 big things to watch early, Our dbs get away with allot of touching and grabbing if they start calling dpi early that's a bad sign, And watch and see how they're playing Barret/samuels...I think utilizing peppers as a qb spy will take care of barret running the ball. I'm hoping they keep strib on samuels most of the game

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LSAClassOf2000

November 6th, 2016 at 4:16 PM ^

Our one loss needs to be a close loss against Ohio State, and Ohio State needs to go on and win the Big Ten. Imagine our cognitive dissonance in having to root hard for Ohio State to win the Big Ten the week after losing to them in Columbus. But that's the world we live in.

Imagine how much drinking most of us would have to do first to make undo the barriers which would make this less painful and hopefully not remembered? I don't know that my wife would even want to deal with me for a few days if it came to this. 

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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^

You say that now in bravado, but if it does happen you'll be all over the what if scenarios.

There are 4 teams getting in no matter what.  None of them will say "we shouldn't be in unless we win our conference" if that's indeed how they get in.

If they change the rules to say only conference champions get in, fine.  Until then . . . 

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grumbler

November 6th, 2016 at 7:19 PM ^

Yeah, I've never understood why people call the explortion of hypotheses a "loser mentality."  It might just be anti-intellectualism, or it might be magical thinking ("no one can think aboout this because such thoughts will magically taint our team").  Either way, it is kinda funny in samll doses, but not at the levels we see on this board.

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GWUWolverineFan

November 6th, 2016 at 10:54 PM ^

I do enjoy the remarks saying it's "anti-intellectualism", but no.

I don't care about going to the CFP as much as I care about beating OSU. Period.

If we won the national title and still lost to OSU, sure I'd be happy we won the national title but it would be so hollow without beating that scum from Columbus.

Sorry for having convictions regarding a rivalry, and frankly, if we can't beat OSU on the road, we won't beat Alabama.



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Hitman

November 6th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^

No. The CFP committee values the conference championship above ALL other tie-breakers. If you don't win your conference, you have no chance of getting in. It would be unprecedented, given its third year of existence, for a non-conference champion to enter the CFP. There's a first time for everything though. Hopefully we don't have to play this card.



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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

This will be interesting to see.  

I hope we win out so that it does not matter to us.  And then I want to see a 2-loss conference champion like Oklahoma competing with a one-loss - but elite - non-conference champion like an Alabama or Clemson ot Louisville.

I'd like to see where the committee's heart really is at on this topic.

 

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I dumped the Dope

November 6th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

Sitting home praying for the dice to fall a certain way on Conf Champ Saturday is not a recipe for success.  

In my mind, it would almost be a better shot for a runner-up Conf Champ to have a path in over a team that couldn't make it. (i.o.w the 1 & 2 in the conf just played, the #3 in the conf is sitting @ home)

The absolute best scenario is to go out and knock off the remaining teams with T2 (Terminator 2) good-guy efficiency and businesslike ruthlessness.

Every single team (Iowa, Ind, OSU) are going to be headhunting us looking for a season-defining win (not even needed to say but OSU can wipe up all of their maladies and pave their way to the CFP with a win), and the things that have had success against M are well-defined at this point.  Thankfully Doc Brown and the Offensive Braintrust have shown unprecedented ability to adjust and innovate better than the teams across from us.  I have been to (& watched) way too many games now in the history books where we tried to jam it between the tackles for *entire halves* and then in desperation came out looking like another team.  I'm all for striving for success for the entire 60 minutes!

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Durham Blue

November 6th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^

I think both Alabama and Clemson will win out which will secure two of the four spots.  If Washington (vs USC or at WSU) and Louisville (at Houston) both drop one more game, which is certainly possible, and we lose to OSU in a close affair then I believe we would be the fourth team in behind OSU.  There would be no remaining 0- or 1-loss teams outside of WVU, Boise St or Western Michigan that could jump us.  Boise St is just too far down in the rankings right now.  I seriously doubt any of those three teams would jump us.

The wild card is Louisville.  Their game at Houston on Nov. 17 is a big one to give us a CFP buffer.

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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^

If we have a single loss as a non-conference champion and Louisville has a single loss as a non-conference champion, why is their record suddenly better than ours?

Their list of actual "accomplishments" other than losing to Clemson is pretty much nill.  

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Michansas Wolverback

November 6th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

I think so and I think it's pretty simple. Assuming a competitive loss at OSU, there is no way we drop lower than 5/6. Thus, all we need is a UW loss to climb back to 4. (And UW still has 3 possible Ls on the schedule: USC, @WSU and P12CG).

The only other team in the conversation would be Louisville. If you compare UM's resume to L'Ville's, as the committee will have to do, there is no objective basis for having them ahead of us. Both will have a competitive loss to a Top 5 team, but ours will have been on road where theirs was at home. Both will have blown out a ranked team at home, but ours will be against a higher ranked opponent (PSU v FSU). From there, Louisville has no other Top 25 wins whereas we will also have wins against #7 Wisconsin and at least Top 20 (possible Top 10) Colorado. It should not be close btwn a 1-loss UM and UL.



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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

I posted this thread when I saw this morning how easily it could happen, perhaps even likely that it would happen.

I was shocked.  I thought until recently that there was no way it could happen.

Now it looks like it could happen simply if Washington loses once and does not win the Pac 12.  That's not really that big of a long shot.  They still have to play USC, Wash State, and the Pac 12 South opponent.

If they do win the Pac 12, then yes, we're out unless we win the Big ten.

 

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sdogg1m

November 6th, 2016 at 4:45 PM ^

Could not care less about us making it in the CFP with one loss if that one loss is against Ohio State. We must starting beating that school again. If Michigan losses then they will be out and the likely participants will be Alabama, Washington, Clemson, and OSU.

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KC Wolve

November 6th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^

This is the strangest opinion on this board. I'm not calling you out or anything, but I am baffled by this. I don't see how anyone could say they would rather beat OSU than have a shot at the national championship. I get that beating OSU and winning the big 10 should come first, but I'd take that trade any day of the week and I'm sure the team would too.



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drzoidburg

November 6th, 2016 at 7:51 PM ^

This was reasonably the case for 100 years, because it was a *mythical* national title and it made no difference - you played 1 bowl game against a quality opponent. Now suddenly there's more at stake, potentially two games and less dispute if you win them both. People need time, especially since this would be the first time for us, to adjust to start caring about far flung games against Clemson or whatever, and give up the Rose Bowl permanently

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thisisme08

November 6th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^

No.

Because according to the talking heads only Alabama, Clemson, Louisville and (suddenly) Washington exist.  

I would really like The Game to be one for the ages (with the good guys coming out on top) and for Auburn to smack the shit out of Alabama.  

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ccdevi

November 6th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^

It's very possible a 1 loss Mich, Clemson or Bama could get in. People are acting like there's an endless number of teams competing for the 4 spots. Theres 6 prime contenders and then perhaps a 2nd tier contender like Wisky, Wvu or Auburn could grab a spot if they win out.

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Richard75

November 6th, 2016 at 5:29 PM ^

The one wild card in all of this is Auburn.

If Auburn wins out (thus beating Bama and winning the SEC), there will be a major push for 2 SEC berths. The argument would be that Auburn is a conference champ, Michigan/Louisville aren't and Auburn is the hottest team in the country. Not saying I agree with it, but it's easy to see the South getting their way on that one.



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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

That is exactly what would happen.  Rational or not.

Michigan/Louisville indded would not be conference champions.  But neither would Alabama.  They wouldn't even win their division. 

But there are different rules for Alabama, even though "last year" is not supposed to matter.

Hell, TA&M was given extra credit by the CFP committee just for losing to Alabama.

If Alabama does not win out, the SEC gets two teams in - Alabama and the SEC champion.  Count on it.

That's why I had to hold my nose and root for Alabama against LSU on Saturday night.

 

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Muttley

November 6th, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^

in CCGs to produce a one-hit-wonder "conference champion" that indisputably does not belong in Larry Culpepper's tournament.

The most likely candidate to falter is Washington.  Should that happen, then I think Louisville would be our prime competition for the last slot.

IMO, the teams in bold below have a shot to make the CFP as a non-champion under the right circumstances.

 

Swim Lanes to Larry Culpepper's Tournament

Team Overall Conf Div Notable
B1G        
Mich 9-0 6-0 East @ OSU 11/26
OSU 8-1 5-1 East v Mich 11/26
Wiscy 7-2 4-2 West v Minn 11/26
         
SEC        
Bama 9-0 6-0 West v Aub 11/26
         
ACC        
Clem 9-0 6-0 Atlantic v nobody
Louis 8-1 6-1 Atlantic @ Hou 11/17
         
PAC12        
Wash 9-0 6-0 North v nobody
         
KiddiePool        
Okla 7-2 6-0   @WVU,v OkSt
WVU 7-1 4-1   @Okla 11/19
OkSt 7-2 5-1   @OK 12/3

 

 

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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^

I think OSU as a non-champion would be tough because they would have 2 losses.  I'm not even sure any 2-loss conference champion gets in, much less a 2-loss non-champion.

The others in bold - Michigan, Alabama, Clemson, Louisville - could all get in as non-conference champions if they only have one loss, and the 4th slot opens up by the Pac 12 and Big 12 having 2-loss (or worse) champions.

It could happen.

 

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Muttley

November 6th, 2016 at 8:11 PM ^

get in over Ohio State.  But OSU has victories over Oklahoma, Wisconsin, & Nebraska, two of them being blowouts.  I think a two-loss OSU would likely be the next team up should Washington falter (opening up a non-champion  spot) and then Louisville.  Semi-bold?

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M-Dog

November 6th, 2016 at 6:20 PM ^

Agreed, but the only conference that is strong enough in reputation is the SEC and they have very likely played themselves out of it.

If a conference is going to get 2 teams in, it will be the Big Ten.  No other conference has two viable teams left.  The Big Ten does.

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Blue Durham

November 6th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^

with 1 possible exception. There are so few teams left that are undefeated or have 1 loss (only a total of 6 teams right now), that it is possible that a 2-loss team could make it. If Wisconsin runs the table and beats Michigan in the Big Ten title game, both Michigan and Wisconsin could make it. Wisconsin would likely have the best resume, RPI, FEI, PFF, and ranking of all of the 2-loss teams. The Big Ten may have 3 viable teams.

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drzoidburg

November 6th, 2016 at 7:45 PM ^

Michigan beat Colorado, Wisc beat LSU, and Ohio beat Oklahoma. WTF other conference has had their top teams with such success? I hate this conference association shit especially when it hinges on *past* seasons and what some asshole like Herbstreit thinks. Biggest argument to go independent frankly.

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