Why Wisconsin will probably win the West Division

Submitted by blueblue on

I’d much rather face Nebraska than Wisconsin if we manage to beat Ohio State and make it to the Big Ten Championship Game. S&P+ gives Nebraska a mode of 7 wins and Wisconsin a mode of 6, but damn the statistics it still looks to me like we’re going to have to play Wisconsin again.

To get Nebraska instead of Wisconsin in the championship game:

A. If Nebraska wins the head-to-head on Oct 29, they’ve won the West (unless they lose all four remaining games—@Ohio State, Maryland, Minnesota, @Iowa—and Wisconsin wins out). But S&P+ only gives Nebraska a 33.6% chance of beating Wisconsin.

B. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and all its other games, Nebraska has to win out—including Ohio State on Oct 29. Wisconsin is a 2:1 favorite or better in each of its remaining games; Nebraska only has a 14.3% chance of beating Ohio State and only a 1.5% chance of winning out.

C. If Wisconsin wins the head-to-head and Nebraska loses to Ohio State, then Wisconsin would have to lose at least one more game. The greatest chance is Oct 22 @Iowa (34.5% chance of losing), next greatest vs. Minnesota Nov 26 (24.1% chance).

Looks to me like the most likely thing is that Wisconsin wins the head-to-head on Oct 29 pretty easily and wins out, Nebraska loses to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, and Wisconsin goes to the championship game for a rematch with either Michigan or Ohio State.

 

Ohio State needs to lose 2 of these to make the Game irrelevant in determining the Big Ten Champion:

@Penn State 10/22 (25.6%), Northwestern 10/29 (3.5%), Nebraska 11/05 (14.3%), @Maryland 11/12 (7.7%), @MSU 11/19 (4.8%)

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Brhino

October 21st, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^

With the East composed of a couple national powerhouses, a couple basement dwellers, and the rest in between, it becomes really important in West who has what crossover games.

Wisconsin had to play MSU, OSU, and us.  Nebraska only has to play OSU.  It doesn't seem so bad because MSU is imploding, but imagine if they were still a top 15 team like they've been recently.

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swan flu

October 21st, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^

I mean, your approach is weird because you give SOME win probabilities, but you don't calculate the total probabilities that each team wins the West based on the current FPI numbers.

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Perkis-Size Me

October 21st, 2016 at 7:08 PM ^

Wisconsin just needs to watch for an emotional letdown tomorrow at Iowa after two games against top-5 opponents they could've won. Kinnick is a tough place to play.

If they can get past tomorrow, they are going to ROLL through the rest of their schedule. Yes they have Nebraska, but Wisconsin has a history of not just beating Nebraska, but pummeling them into the ground until there's nothing left but humiliation and shame. And Nebraska is nowhere close to as good as their ranking. Wisconsin will handle Nebraska at home.

If they get past tomorrow, they're getting another shot at either us or OSU in December.



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lhglrkwg

October 21st, 2016 at 7:33 PM ^

I feel like Wisconsin is likely to drop one vs Iowa, Nebraska, or Minnesota. Their offense is so weak that I feel like they'll run into a 17-14 loss in one of those

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Mr. Elbel

October 21st, 2016 at 7:46 PM ^

I think the dream scenario would be playing Minnesota since we didn't get to play them this year. if they win out and the best teams in the league beat the not as good teams in the league, its possible.

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LSBlue

October 21st, 2016 at 8:34 PM ^

I'm hoping Nebraska wins out...until they lose to UM in the B1G championship of course. Sure, it will devalue the Wiscy win and it means OSU has a loss before The Game, however, it also means OSU is out of the playoffs at that point. Lastly, to me, and I'm sure many others as well who are still bitter about Tom Osborne's timely retirement announcement, there'll be something poetic about UM beating an undefeated Nebraska team, squashing their hopes at a national title.

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rock7413

October 22nd, 2016 at 9:43 AM ^

It's nice to see the B1G West carrying some weight this year for the conference. Wisconsin is a legit top 10 team, and should they'll stay the favorites in the B1G West for the forseeable future. Paul Chryst really has that program heading into the right direction, He found a gem in Hornibrook, who's the real deal. Add a legit QB to their usual dominant run game & defense, and you really got something.

Im also a big fan of redshirt Freshmen Bradick Shaw. He'll start next year and be the guy for the next 2/3 years. He can be every bit as good as Clement.

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