Midseason Expectations Revamp: Offensive Backfield Comment Count

Brian

QUARTERBACK

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[Bryan Fuller]

SEASON PREVIEW TAKE: Some concern generally overridden by Harbaugh's flawless track record as a QB coach and developer:

On one level, "who is the starting quarterback?" is the single most critical question about the 2016 Michigan Wolverines. On another level, eh, it'll be fine.

By the time the preview was published Speight was expected to start, and he has indeed started. The "expectations" section pointed out that Speight had just as much experience in Harbaugh's system as Rudock did even then, so a repeat of Early Rudock was probably not on the cards. On the other hand:

It's probably irrational to believe that the starter will be late-season Rudock. Despite Rudock's early struggles this is a guy who was a solid two-year starter at Iowa prior to his arrival. Speight has about two quarters of on-field experience, and O'Korn's season and a half ended in disaster.

...The end result should be somewhere near last year's outcome: 60% completions, 8 YPA, 2:1 TD-INT. The ride there should be far less turbulent.

I offered some clarification as I projected a new starter would be one of the most efficient QBs in the league: the Big Ten has no quarterbacks.

NUMBERS AT THE HALFWAY MARK: Close to preseason projections. He's at 62%, 7.5 YPA, and an 11-2 TD-INT ratio. The YPA is a bit off the target mark, but Speight's done a good job avoiding interceptions. He's also been fortunate that a number of throws against Wisconsin didn't get picked off. S&P+ has an "expected turnover margin" metric; Michigan is +6 on the season but expected to be +3; I'd imagine most of this is a gap between the number of PBUs the other team has gotten without picking the ball off.

Otherwise, fancystats are oddly enthusiastic, with S&P+ declaring Michigan the #26 passing offense thus far despite peripheral numbers that are mediocre. They do capture Speight's tendency to start slow:

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Michigan has a spate of average-or-worse P5 passing defenses coming up (Illinois, MSU, Indiana, and Iowa are all in a band between 46th and 68th in S&P+, with Indiana(!!!) leading the way at 46) along with a good Maryland outfit (that is terrible at run defense, surprise) and the looming monstrosity that is Ohio State. The schedule doesn't uptick until the Game and whatever postseason Michigan arrives at; Speight should reach the end of the regular season with numbers at least equal to his current production.

FEELINGSBALL: It's hard to tell if we're genuinely disappointed in Speight's performance as a redshirt sophomore first-year starter or if we just don't have anything else to complain about. UFRs and PFF suggest the former, however. Speight's shown a couple of nice attributes—he's got excellent pocket presence and will find second and third reads—that are offset by spates of iffy accuracy, especially early.

This certainly doesn't feel like a passing offense on the verge of the top 25 nationally, and Speight stands out as the single biggest fixable problem Michigan has.

UP OR DOWN OR EH: I'd say this is a slight downgrade, because Speight's actually gone slightly backward from a strong start. The trajectory has been flat over the past few games, and he's increasingly unlikely to take off a la Rudock.

RUNNING BACK

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[Eric Upchurch]

SEASON PREVIEW TAKE: De'Veon Smith was projected as the main man, flanked by Ty Isaac and Drake Johnson, the two veteran options. Smith was "a good bet to be Michigan's first 1,000 yard back since Fitz Toussaint" after a second half surge in 2015, but I did use "plurality" instead of "majority" when describing his workload.

Ty Isaac was expected to emerge after a rough 2015 largely based on practice hype and Harbaugh press conference pronouncements; I expected him to be the clear #2 and heir apparent. Chris Evans actually got quite a lot of airtime for someone listed as a backup to Jabrill Peppers at the "spread H" position I made up so I could shoehorn Peppers into the RB post, because the practice chatter about him had been nonstop.

Karan Higdon, on the other hand, was shoved in with the freshmen and mostly forgotten about.

NUMBERS AT THE HALFWAY MARK: Drake Johnson's recovery from the forklift thing was apparently exaggerated; he has not played. Smith has gotten the plurality of carries and might have a slight majority of snaps but it's a lot more even than we thought it would be preseason. This is partially because Michigan's been on the friendly end of a lot of blowouts; it is partially because the top four backs are all producing. The four milkmen:

  • Smith: 61 carries, 5.5 YPC
  • Ty Isaac: 53 carries, 5.5 YPC
  • Evans: 48 carries, 8.3(!) YPC
  • Higdon: 35 carries, 7.4 YPC

This is, how you say, unsustainable. Higdon in particular has been handed multiple offset draw touchdowns so easy that most readers of this blog could have picked up a first down on them. The fancystats that ignore garbage time have Michigan 21st as a rush offense.

FEELINGSBALL: Along with the linebackers this unit is the most pleasant surprise of the season. Smith has mostly picked up where he left off in the bowl game. There have been a few iffy cuts but those are the exceptions rather than the rule; he seems to have learned to press the hole and put himself in another gap. His pass protection may have fallen off a bit and he fumbled against Rutgers; otherwise he's been close to the best version of himself.

Meanwhile the other three guys are revelations. And yes, three. Since Isaac did little last year and nothing after his fumbles against Maryland this is actually three players bursting onto the scene, not two. And burst they have. Each guy brings a slightly different package of skills to the table. Isaac is huge and can weave from one hole to the next, stiffarming the first DB he meets into a pile of sludge. Evans is lightning quick and will turn five yards into 50 more consistently than other options—he's averaging 10.3(!) yards a play after he gets those first five, which is a bonkers number. Higdon is the best guy for a power play, a shifty guy who runs low to the ground and bounces off tackles.

All of them have looked like capable feature backs. Ty Wheatley's found some traction with his charges this year.

UP OR DOWN OR EH: Major upgrade. Michigan entered the season still a little suspicious of Smith and uncertain if there was anything high-quality behind him. Six games into this season Michigan appears to have four good to very good backs.

Comments

dragonchild

October 14th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

Who the hell are you arguing with that's supposedly so down on Speight?  He's fine.  He's just not elite.

What perspective do you want, exactly?  That anyone who's not gushing effusive gushy praise of Speight is a Debbie Downer who'd throw him overboard with concrete boots just to get O'Korn on the field?  Has anyone in this entire thread been like that?

Speight's fine.  WTF else do you want people to say; that a guy who went 6/13 against Rutgers is elite?

Whole Milk

October 14th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^

I'm not saying you specifically because I don't know, and don't really care enough to go look, but there were people on this thread who were throwing him under the bus for next year already, saying that he is almost suredly going to be replaced by a guy who has never played a college snap.

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 14th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

My favorite position to watch has always been running back, and my favorite running back so far is definitely Evans.  He's got the quickest quicks, and he breaks tackles he shouldn't.  I'm mega-excited about what he's gonna show us these next few years.

Ziff72

October 14th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

I'm not a huge fan of how Speight has performed so far, but I don't see any basis for saying he is "increasingly unlikely to take off a la Rudock last year".   

1. At this point last season Rudock was much worse and we had no reason to believe he was going to take off.

2. Speight obviously has far less experience so in theory he should have much more room to improve.

3. Speight could  have an injury as his play has dipped right after the Colorado hit..   Bye week could prove helpful.

4. Illinois.   Lol

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

October 14th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^

Brian's point I think is that Rudock had a track record of high-level competence, and the only problem was needing a little bit more of a settling-in time.  New system, new coaching, new receivers, etc. I would say we did have reason to believe he'd take off (or at least get better) because he'd done it before.   Speight has no such track record, so his improvement trend is likely to be more of a slower upward slope than a sudden high-jump from suck to great.

Alumnus93

October 14th, 2016 at 12:55 PM ^

That all four RBs  appear to all be vastly better, tells me that it is actually the improved OL.  Now, if only say one of the four RBs were much improved, only then can you say its that RB.

gbdub

October 14th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^

So I've seen a lot of comments on Speight that are something like "I know his stats are fine, but he doesn't pass the eye test". Well, maybe our eye test is too harsh - on the stats, Speight is a decent to good QB, especially for a young first year starter. But, you say, look at the bad reads, the inaccurate easy throws, the near interceptions...

How many non-Michigan games are we watching with the level of scrutiny we apply to Speight? Because when I watch a college football game, almost every time, I see some bad reads, missed easy throws, and balls that coulda shoulda been picked off. So maybe the reason Speight's stats look decent are that his flaws are actually pretty common in college football. This isn't the NFL - not every ball is going to be on target, not every signal caller can reliably make 3 or 4 reads, and not every WR is going to make his QB look good.

Brian predicted 60% completion, ~8YPA, and 2:1 TD:INT. Well, that's about where he is. How exactly did you expect him to get there? 60% means a lot of throws are going to be missed or dropped. 8YPA means not every pass is going to be a DO bomb. 2:1 TD:INT means... well actually it means Speight would have to put up several more balls for grabs than he has.

Speight is not robo-Henne. It would be nice if he were, but it's not really fair to expect him to be. For the most part we didn't preseason, but now we're faulting him for basically meeting our middling prediction.

gbdub

October 14th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^

Huh. Based on the criticism of Speight I figured Henne made 90% of his throws and never stalled a drive with an inopportune miss.

Then again, Henne did have Tacopants on the team...

M Ascending

October 14th, 2016 at 1:19 PM ^

I'm surprised that there are so few comments relating to Speight's obvious problems with mechanics. He has an inordinately long windup, similar to Tebow's, which allows defenders to close in on receivers he is targeting. He also tends to aim and guide the ball, as if he's thinking too much about the throw, also very similar to Tebow. I think this is the reason that he has virtually no completions into tight spaces this year, preferring to target an open Jake Butt crossing or trying to go over the top to Darboh or Chesson, or hitting a back on a swing pattern.

Blue Balls Afire

October 14th, 2016 at 1:55 PM ^

The thing with his mechanics that I find curious, is that I can't get a read on what they are.  Sometimes his wind-up is long. Sometimes he short-arms it.  Sometimes he's over the top.  Sometimes he's sidearm.  I don't know what I'm looking at from throw to throw.  I'm no QB guru, so maybe it's just me.

Edit: I'm not the one who downvoted you, by the way.  I like your comment.

MGlobules

October 14th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

in Michigan's pursuit of an NC. But I'm not nearly as down on him as most of you. The reason? He gets better as games progress; the guy still has serious potential for better. In the first couple of games he got rattled a few times; since then, whether throwing well or not, I have seen nothing from him but calm.

Buncha games for him to really find a groove now.

readyourguard

October 14th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

Major upgrade at RB but slightly downgrade at QB?

Do not agree. 

Feelingsball and all, but 62% completion, 11:2 ratio, escapability, and a couple long balls on the mark is a hell of an upgrade to last year's first six games. Meanwhile, our running backs are knifing through dead seals behind an OL comprised of THREE(!) 5th year seniors, a 3 year starter, and a guy who was so good he played as a true freshman. 

I'm firmly entrenched in the Team Speight and think you nailed it on the head when you said we're just looking for things to nitpick since there's little else to choose from.

 

Space Coyote

October 14th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

I thnk the "slight downgrade at QB" is more with the range of performance from play-to-play. I think more people thought Speight would be more steady. I think the overall performance is about on par of what was expected, with a little more really good and a little more really bad, and the really bad sticks in the mind.

I think the RBs are an upgrade and have been good. Brian hasn't yet touched on the OL yet, and I think the Major upgrade comes from the combination of the RBs being an upgrade along with the OL in run blocking. The OL, in my opinion, has been in general a bit better at "winning" assignments across the board, and significantly better in not busting assignments, at least in the run game (pass pro has probably taken a slight step back).

readyourguard

October 14th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^

I think the overall performance is about on par of what was expected, with a little more really good and a little more really bad, and the really bad sticks in the mind.

 

See, I'm not seeing "a little more really bad".  I would categorize his perfomance as steady.  If you want to consider the NEAR picks, then ya, you might conclude he's average at best.  But if ifs were fifths we would have got that punt off last year.  He's human. He's not going to connect 70% of the time and he's not a threat to bust off a 30 yard run.  I'm fine with that as long as he's not throwing picks.  At 60%, he's more likely to make the throws than not. 

RE: OL - The biggest thing I've noticed is less pulls/traps that result in total whiffs (although we still have entirely too many, imo). And, we're mauling DL with double teams at the point of attack.  We have a ways to go, but if Devin Asiasi's effort and production is any indication, the future looks bright for our blocking.

 

Space Coyote

October 14th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^

Is that he's a very average QB in a program that has had a lot of good QBs. So most Michigan fans have seen other good Michigan QBs and when they watch other games, typically are watching good games, which likely means they are seeing a lot of other good QBs.

Speight isn't at that level right now. He's very average. He makes some great throws, he makes some really bad throws, and he makes a bunch of throws that are somewhere between good and good enough. That's who he is right now. An average college QB. He's within the one-sigma of college QBs.

And that's fine for the vast majority of games. What I've seen from him shows the capability of being a good QB (though I don't know if he has the tools/potential from what I've seen to be truly great), he can improve consistently to be a good QB, and certainly has the capability right now to have single games where he is in that "good" category.

So I agree with Brian's take. It's a bit disapointing that he isn't better, I'd say, but he's pretty close to what is expected, with maybe a bit more swing in his game that most thought would happen. And the RBs are certainly looking at worst solid to good, with very good depth. I don't think any of them have been great, and all have strengths and weaknesses, but it's hard not to see them as being a strong component of the team right now.

Blue in PA

October 14th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^

QB for a team that is 6-0, 11TD to 2 ints, 60%+ comp. 

I doubt he will lose the starting job unless he starts costing the team games.  Wilt missed open receivers, it happens, remember Chad Henne?

 

As long as Wilt isn't costing the team games and is moving the ball, its his job to lose.  Injuries happen, hopfully O'Korn does as well if he gets his shot.  I imagine if he was as good or better, Jim would probably be starting him.

 

 

DK81

October 14th, 2016 at 2:14 PM ^

but man do I like Higdon. That dude looks like a different back this year. He has a great combination on running with power and speed. He breaks tackles and can run away from defenders.

jsquigg

October 14th, 2016 at 2:14 PM ^

I'm actually optimistic about the running game and think that could be the key to the season ending up special.  While the offense had to rely on the pass last year, seeing improvements in a running game that's already been borderline impressive could allow Speight to be even more efficient and allow Harbaugh to put him in better situations.  I actuallhy thought we got away from the running game on a few critical series against Wisconsin.

Moonlight Graham

October 14th, 2016 at 2:29 PM ^

that O'Korn and Morris have both looked pretty ok in their playing time. Not enough to pull Speight but if things degraded severely or if Speight got hurt, it would not be an extincltion level event for the offense. In fact, I thought that Morris has looked a bit better than O'Korn. That assessment would probably also fit the staff's preseason expectations, that there would not be much of a drop off. 

autodrip4-1968

October 15th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^

could run through those holes. Sure. It would take awhile. Wilton will be fine. For a guy who hadn't seen much game action. I think that he has handled himself quite well. He is not perfect. He will improve.