Speight vs Rudock: a statistical comparison through 6 games
With the bye week coming up and us having reached the half-way point in the season, I thought this would be a good time to stop and reflect over our quarterback's progression so far. During the Rutgers game, Speight was referred to as a "game manager" a number of times, despite having some impressive games this season statistically. There's also been a lot of talk on this board regarding where he is at this point relative to where Rudock was at after the 1st half of last season. Below is a comparison of their stats, as well as our opponent's records and our strength of our schedule over 6 weeks:
| RUDOCK | ||||||||||
| 2015 | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rat | |
| 1 | Utah | 27 | 43 | 62.8 | 279 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 118.7 |
| 2 | OR St | 18 | 26 | 69.2 | 180 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 0 | 1 | 119.7 |
| 3 | UNLV | 14 | 22 | 63.6 | 123 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 116.5 |
| 4 | BYU | 14 | 25 | 56 | 194 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 1 | 0 | 134.4 |
| 5 | Maryland | 16 | 32 | 50 | 180 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | 101.3 |
| 6 | NW | 17 | 23 | 73.9 | 179 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 139.3 |
| 106 | 171 | 62.0 | 1135 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 | 120.4 | ||
| season | 249 | 389 | 64.0 | 3017 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 20 | 9 | 141.5 | |
| W-L thru 6 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||
| SOS thru 6 | 22nd | |||||||||
| opp W-L | 20 | 14 | ||||||||
| SPEIGHT | ||||||||||
| 2016 | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rat | |
| 1 | Hawaii | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 145 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 3 | 1 | 231.4 |
| 2 | UCF | 25 | 37 | 67.6 | 312 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 4 | 0 | 174.1 |
| 3 | Colorado | 16 | 30 | 53.3 | 229 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 128.5 |
| 4 | Penn St | 21 | 34 | 61.8 | 189 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 1 | 0 | 118.2 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 20 | 32 | 62.5 | 219 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1 | 1 | 124.1 |
| 6 | Rutgers | 6 | 13 | 46.2 | 100 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 1 | 0 | 136.2 |
| 98 | 159 | 61.6 | 1194 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 11 | 2 | 145.0 | ||
| W-L thru 6 | 6 | 0 | ||||||||
| SOS thru 6 | 18th | |||||||||
| opp W-L | 20 | 14 |
First off, I was surprised to see that our strength of schedule ranked 22nd in the nation after 6 weeks last season, and 18th this year after 6 weeks (I thought it would have been much higher last year). Our opponents' records at this point in the season are an identical 20-14.
Rudock made impressive improvement over the course of the season, but it's interesting to note that Speight's stats are closer to Rudock's overall 2015 season stats than they are to his 6 week stats, which I think says a lot about where we're at and his command of the offense.
October 10th, 2016 at 3:32 PM ^
Not only does the bye give him a chance to work on skills - it also gives him a week to heal. I suspect that part of his problem throwing is that his arm is still sore from the hit in the Colorado game.
October 10th, 2016 at 3:36 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
I think this bye week will help Speight settle down and focus on the things that gave him success against UCF. I'm not Harbaugh, so I don't know what he sees or knows, but I've been satifisfied with Speight. He isn't the best QB in the nation and he won't be this season or next, but he is solid, and thats what this team needs.
I really feel that Michigan doesn't rely much on Speight because the defense is so good. Honestly, Michigan scored 14 points to beat Wisconsin. I think most serious observers knew that once that second touchdown was scored it was probably a win for Michigan. The coaches essentially dialed back the passing game and ran the ball to eat up clock. I understand that Speight will need to use his arm against teams like Ohio State, but the coaching staff knows that game isn't until November. Harbaugh and staff seem to be coaching towards the strength of their team, which as we all can see is the defense. I think the pressure of being a QB at a top 5 school is great, and by taking responsibilities off of Speight's shoulders they are creating a system where they can win and really prepare for the future.
On a semi-unrelated note, Rudock stepped up production last season during the B1G play because he absolutely had to for Michigan to win. Against Minnesota (before he was injured) and Indiana, Rudock played exceptionally well in my opinion. He wasn't perfect, but he was good. Michigan doesn't win those games without his play. I think this team is exponentially better than last years team because the defense is far better. I could be proven wrong, but does anyone see Michigan giving up over 40 to Indiana this year? If we played Minnesota do you think Leidner would run the ball many times successfully? Michigan beat Penn State last year by a lot smaller margin than this season, and we stopped Barkley easily. That sort of thing wasn't happening last year.
October 10th, 2016 at 10:57 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
I think that as long as he keeps winning games, I see no reason to worry about Speight. If we beat Ohio St., are we really going to spend the next week complaining about Speight's throwing motion or that he underthrew Darboh a couple times? No.
When he actually loses a game for us, then I'll get all "put in O'Korn!" But as long as he's winning games and making big throws (which he is), who cares?
People can complain that "he'll lose us games against better competition" all they want. But they've been saying that since the 1st game. Hasn't happened yet. Relax.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
Does anyone doubt that if Coach Jim thought O'Korn would give M a better chance of winning than would Speight that O'Korn would be starting now? The fact that Coach Jim continues to believe that Speight is M's best available option is pretty much EOS. Go Wilton.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:18 PM ^
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October 10th, 2016 at 4:43 PM ^
And when you consider that Harbaugh brought in O'Korn while Speight was a Hoke recruit, it's pretty hard to argue that Speight didn't earn his job.
October 10th, 2016 at 11:11 PM ^
I don't like to pile on Hoke. Can't ignore that QBs did not fare well during his tenure.
Rudock did not come to us as damaged goods plus he had experience.
Speight doesn't have the experience, and.... there may be damage to repair which takes more time. Harbaugh has an eye for talent and potential, so if he says WS is our starter, not for any of us to question really.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:29 PM ^
Outside of Barrett, Kizer and Watson, who you got? Or let's play the game with any previous Michigan QB: Outside of Harbaugh, Grbac, and Brady, who you got? Speight is pretty good and I would not trade him for Ruddddock, Navarre, Henne, Collins, Griese, Franklin, Robinson or Gardner. There are 128 teams in the FBS and probably less than 10 have a QB as good as Speight is right now. This guy wins for us and has at least another year to get better. I like what we have.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^
Are you joking? I love this team more than anything and I think Speight has done a really nice job, but if you don't think there are 10 other FBS QB's out there that are better than him, IMO that's really delusional.
October 10th, 2016 at 9:17 PM ^
October 11th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
Speight is a first time starter... here are the 1st time starters in CFB ranked by QBR:
#4 Sam Darnold - USC
#9 Stephen Montez - CO
#11 Jerod Evans - VT
#12 Brandon Dawkins - AZ
#17 Austin Allen - AR
#18 Deondre Francois - FSU
#20 Nick Fitzgerald - Miss. St.
#25 Wilton Speight
October 10th, 2016 at 4:39 PM ^
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October 10th, 2016 at 9:21 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 4:59 PM ^
Most people were figuring he was going to be a high first round draft pick, if not the first draft pick, had he not signed with the Yankees.
October 11th, 2016 at 2:30 AM ^
I mean, I think that's a litte much. With Henne or Denard we would be #1 in the polls. Those were excellent QBs as seniors.
October 11th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
Outside of Barrett, Kizer and Watson, who you got?
Lamar Jackson
Jake Browning
Mitch Trubisky
Pat Mahomes
Greg Ward
October 10th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^
Rudock showed a lot more in the first six games than Speight, no question. Speight has the benefit of an excellent defense and running game that Rudock didn't. Still, Speight is good enough to take us all the way with the team we have. Low interception rate is huge.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^
Rudock showed a lot more in the first six games than Speight, no question
Actually there is a definitely a question about that. Take another look at those numbers. He had one 200-yard game in the first six, and more INTs than TDs.
I'm not sure how you can say we didn't have excellent defense at this point a year ago, when we were coming off three shutouts in a row (BYU, Md, NW).
October 11th, 2016 at 2:27 AM ^
For sure Speight has better stats, I was talking more about the eye test. Concretely, Rudock was asked to do so much more. Speight knows there is absolutely no problem punting for us because our defense is so good and has given us so many leads. Our defense was excellent last year as well, true -- I think this year is a step up, and regardless we still have had much bigger and more numerous leads.
Not trying to hate on Speight at all, he's been good and I believe he can take us all the way -- but I really appreciate Rudock coming in to this team and helping our coaching transition get off to a great start.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:35 PM ^
One note of caution: Rudock had a previous track record of performance (at Iowa) that suggested he could raise his game. We were frustrated at this point a year ago that we weren't getting the Iowa version of Rudock.
Speight's upside is more unknown.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 6:50 PM ^
I'm not sure 128 yards in six games (21.3 per game) is really enough to keep defenses honest.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^
Rudock Pros:
- Excellent accuracy on short to medium length passes
- Excellent pocket presence
- Doesn't stare down receivers
Speight Pros:
- Physicality (height, weight advantage, reminds me of Big Ben)
- Slightly better mobility
- Excellent long ball
- Able to throw accurately on the run
Rudock Cons:
- Prone to more turnovers
- Long ball is mediocre at best
- Sacked more easily
Speight Cons:
- Stares down receivers
- Misses many no-brainer short / medium passes
- Seems to get somewhat easily flustered in the pocket
Now, with that in mind, it still amazes me to think that Speight is only a Sophomore. If he hasn't hit his ceiling yet, I think we may have ourselves a Big Wilt Speightilsberger.
October 10th, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^
Think you have to give Speight the nod on this one for 2 primary reasons. 1) TD to turnover ratio, and 2) He had relatively no game experience before this year, compared to Rudock who played at Iowa for a few full years. That's a huge difference.
Ijust hope Speight can continue to improve on a weekly basis the way Rudock seemingly did last year. While we love to ground and pound, it was evident we need a QB who can make some plays in the air when the run defense is stout... That is exactly what Speight did against Wisconsin on his beautiful deep ball to Darboh.
October 10th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
had to learn the offense in 3 months, Speight had an entire season of practicing the offense and exposure to the playbook.
October 10th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
That's a great point. Cannot argue with that, I just think that in-game experience is vital for a QB's success. If Rudock had to sit out a year and could have learned the system, I am sure he wouldn't have been so shaky in the first few games.
October 10th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^
have a game where Harbaugh took him aside for the 2nd half and said, Nah?
October 11th, 2016 at 9:28 AM ^
No; Speight went in after Rudock was injured during the Minnesota game, but he was never pulled for someone else.
October 10th, 2016 at 6:08 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 7:06 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 7:22 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 7:35 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 7:55 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 8:17 PM ^
October 10th, 2016 at 9:20 PM ^
Speight is very accurate on 3 step drop with the quick throws. Routes like quick slants, he hits dead bullseye. We have seen several of these quick hitters go for 1st Downs on 3rd and Medium type of plays. Wilton is very good on these throws, however he thows those HOT...as witnessed by 2 drops by Darboh on HOT balls that were certain 1st Downs. Perhaps he could dial back the hot just a hair on a couple of those where its not needed. The HOT throws tend to ricochet off the WRs and can be a disaster.
Sometimes when on the move in the pocket or breaking it, he either tenses up or his feet get unsettled....maybe both.... on throws that are short to medium. Oddly he seems to be better at long throws on the run than short ones. He has a great touch on Long Throws on the Run...but not so much on the short to mid routes.
He has a good football IQ and the team seems to respond to his leadership well.
I'd like to see him take the next step in terms of getting in a rhythm.
Tom Brady used to be great at that when he was at Michigan and the team got behind. They would go 4 wides and Tom would lead them right down the field. It was beautiful to watch and that was his NFL Future right there if you looked closely enough...he had it at Michigan.
Jake Ruddock showed that in the last drive vs. Utah last year when he took them right down the field in under 2 minutes for a TD pass. I saw that and knew that he would end up being a good QB at Michigan.
We need to see one of those 2 minutes 4 WR drives for Speight....maybe a couple. He did it vs. Minnesota last year....
October 11th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/56sgcl/week_7_fpi_strength_of_rec…
our composite SOS from Sagarin, Massey, and Billingsley is 45, which sounds way more right than 22