Recruiting Mailbag: Roster Balance, On-Field Success, Five-Stars
Under Harbaugh's watch, Michigan is taking more versatile prospects like QB-turned-TE Zach Gentry. [Fuller]
This question was posted in the comments of Kai-Leon Herbert's commitment post, and I've been meaning to get around to it ever since:
It seems to me that right from the start, the Harbaugh staff hasn't been primarily focused on "roster balance" but instead--at least in the short term--focused on making 100% sure that they have solid players in key position groups.
What I mean is--they seem to be adopting a "surge" strategy wherein they almost over-recruit certain spots to guarantee good performances. QB and perhaps RB came to mind last year, and now perhaps this year OL and TE.
The theory I guess being that a few of the recruits will turn into diamonds under the pressure. Meanwhile the rest will either transfer (thus opening up roster slots to "surge" the next position group) or (more preferably) if they are athletic & amenable to it, switch to a different position group to help balance out the roster that way.
Is this a known strategy that they're following? Or or is this just a wrong-headed & faulty observation on my part?
I believe the "surge" recruiting at certain positions reflects two things: first and foremost roster imbalance that Harbaugh is trying to fix, and second a change in emphasis in how this staff recruits.
There's one position where Harbaugh's recruiting stands in stark contrast to Hoke's: quarterback. Hoke took one per year and infamously skipped taking one in 2012 because he had Shane Morris in the fold for 2013—instead of promoting competition, Hoke seemingly wanted to avoid it. Michigan got only Russell Bellomy in 2011 and put a non-elite prospect (Wilton Speight, a three-star) on top of their board for 2014. This approach required the coaches to have an exceptional hit rate with their QB recruits; that obviously didn't happen.
Harbaugh, on the other hand, doubled up on QBs in his first class, adding Zach Gentry—a prospect versatile enough to shift to tight end, which he's since done—to holdover Alex Malzone. Instead of easing back after landing a top-tier QB in 2016 (Brandon Peters), Harbaugh grabbed another for 2017 (Dylan McCaffrey), and M's top targets for 2018 (Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Artur Sitkowski, Cameron Rising) are also of the high-four-star variety.
Hoke seemed to fear that his quarterbacks would leave if they felt they weren't preordained as The Guy. Harbaugh has no such fear; he recruits with future attrition in mind and, as mentioned, takes more position-versatile players than Hoke did—just look at Gentry for evidence. At certain positions, especially quarterback, I think Michigan is utilizing the strategy outlined in the question, and that general mentality drives how they recruit.
Other surges are more the coaches patching up holes in the roster. With Freddy Canteen's status in doubt, Michigan was set to have only three scholarship receivers back in 2017 (Ways, Harris, and Perry), so taking five receiver-types in the 2016 class made a lot of sense, especially since a couple can potentially play in the defensive backfield. After fixing the imbalance, the coaches are being much more selective at receiver in 2017.
Tight end recruiting, which spawned this question, is a combination of Harbaugh patching a hole—Khalid Hill, who's now a fullback, and Ian Bunting will be the only two scholarship upperclassman TE/H-backs in 2017—and putting together his preferred personnel. Harbaugh wants blocky/catchy guys of all shapes and sizes in his offense, and he had to jump-start that in the last couple classes; things should even out over the next couple classes as Harbaugh shapes the roster to his liking.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]
@AceAnbender (1/2) How much influence do you see our on-field results having on our top uncommitted targets this fall? #mgomailbag
— Brendan Warren (@Brendan_Warren) July 22, 2016
@AceAnbender (2/2) And do you think said results (good/bad) would be more or less influential for in-state kids vs out of state? #mgomailbag
— Brendan Warren (@Brendan_Warren) July 22, 2016
We learned the hard way with Hoke that on-field results matter, especially when it comes to closing on top prospects late in the cycle. While Michigan doesn't need to win a national title to close on their remaining top uncommitted targets, they need to show they're headed in that direction—there's no other option when trying to convince prospects to choose Michigan over the likes of Alabama and Ohio State. Recruits would probably understand a loss at Ohio State—single-game outcomes tend to matter less to recruits than people think—but there'd be some explaining to do if the game is as lopsided as it was last year.
As for part two, I think this has more of an effect on out-of-state prospects, who are obviously less inclined to commit to Michigan because of loyalty, personal connection to the program, and the like. For out-of-state prospects, Michigan has to prove they're a better option than the who's-who of power programs also pursuing the Baron Brownings and Isaiah Wilsons out there. Meanwhile, Michigan has already convinced several of the top-level in-state recruits that they're the program of choice locally—they're the current favorite to sweep the top five:
If the result of the Michigan-MSU game was paramount to these guys, I think we'd see a little more green on that board.
@AceAnbender #mgomailbag Has Harbaugh gotten more visits from 5*s than his predecessors? Seems like we are in on more elites than w Hoke/RR
— Russell Muir (@OC_ATC) July 22, 2016
There's maybe been a slight uptick, though Hoke was no slouch in this department. Hoke only closed on two five-stars (Jabrill Peppers and Derrick Green), however, while Harbaugh has already landed the top overall prospect in his first full class and has Michigan as the favorite to land Donovan Peoples-Jones this year. Michigan also has realistic shots at Browning and Wilson, Nico Collins is a five-star to Rivals, and Dylan McCaffrey is still within striking distance of a fifth star after his recent drop.
With ample supporting evidence, Harbaugh can sell five-stars on his ability to turn them into future stars in a way Hoke couldn't, and his team's success should enable him to turn more of those visits into commitments.
Maybe this isn’t a realistic question at this point but what the heck;
What do you think a realistic ceiling is for this class for the Wolverines?
As always, thanks for considering the q and for the great work, love the coverage.
Dana
If the team is a playoff contender, I could see this ending up as a top-three class, though it'll be tough to catch Ohio State and Alabama. They'll have the volume—it's not hard to project this class up to around 30(!) commits with normal attrition. They're the favorites to pick up Peoples-Jones, Ambry Thomas, and Jaylen Kelly-Powell, and they're running at or near the top for the likes of Collins, Wilson, Drew Singleton, Cesar Ruiz, TJ Slaton, and so on. Plus, as we saw last year with Devin Asiasi, this coaching staff can pull high-level prospects seemingly out of the blue; you never know who's going to emerge late in the cycle.
Let's review just how unlikely this *IF* is -- you are saying that Hoke agreed in May 2011 (when Shane committed) to take just one QB in two classes (2012 and 2013).
In his Hello From The Future post, Tim did write, "He probably committed to Michigan with the knowledge that the coaching staff will not pursue a highly-rated passer for next February."
It's definitely possible that Michigan told Morris that none of their top 2012 offers were happening: Zeke Pike (Auburn all the way), Gunner Kiel (early Oklahoma, Alabama offers, ended up at ND), Bennie Coney (ND, FSU, LSU, but ended up at Cincinnati), and since you mentioned him: 3-star Maty Mauk (ND, ended up washing out at Missouri).
It's true that Hoke did not pursue another Bellomy-like substance (late flip from Purdue) in the 2012 class when their QB offers didn't pan out. But Michigan was still pursuing 3-star Devin Fuller (an early Michigan offer who ended up at UCLA) as late as October 2011 (when Fuller dropped Michigan from his list).
To sum up, then: Hoke did not stop recruiting QBs when Morris commited. Thus, you are wrong. This is a classic bullshit, conspiracy-theory rumor that emerges to fit the facts in hindsight.
Does Board #5 have some special process that means everything posted there must be true? It looks like a pretty standard Internet hodgepodge of people posting about whatever floats their boat. Like I said, there is no evidence for the theory, and there is some evidence against it -- here's Tim's recruiting update from July 2011:
http://mgoblog.com/content/thursday-recruitin-invades-ohio
Basically, Mauk, Coney, and Kiel were pro-style prospects still very much being pursued that month -- two months AFTER Shane's commitment. As I noted, Fuller was in the mix until October.
For your rumor to be true, then this would all have to be wrong. I mean, even after Mauk and Coney went elsewhere in July, Michigan was supposedly still in on Kiel, a top recruit who had not yet shown himself to be a trainwreck (later commiting to Indiana, then LSU, and then jumping to ND on signing day, IIRC) and Fuller was still planning a visit.
I think that's the fourm where it's rumored a couple of individuals who are deeply connected to the program post. But those claims exist in many forums everywhere, so who really knows.
What is wrong with you that you don't get this 93?!?!?!?
*IF* Shane and family did indeed require this, that should be rejected outright and in fact be seen as a Red Flag!
JH will never allow this, so the topic will never come up again as long as he and his hand-picked successor are in charge. Let's hope that takes us to 2026 and beyond...
Don't try to wiggle out of this. Here is what you said to Ace above:
don't diss hoke on qb competition...Morris And father would only commit if they were promised no competition. This is on morris, not hoke
You stated it like it was a fact, which implies you "agreed with the notion."
Just say "my bad" and move on.
His father made Carr promise he wouldn't recruit another QB for at least a year, so the precedent was definitely already set for Hoke. I agree it's bad for the team, and it seems quite clear that Harbaugh has no intention of making those kinds of deals.
So you were talking out of your ass before. Thanks for posting.
Half the reason I'm posting is to lock in this special bit of stupidity.
I follow recruiting pretty close, but never heard that before. I'm not doubting you, just wondering where that information came from.
Next I would ask you why don't you blame Hoke for taking the commitment? If some 17-18 year old kid is dictating how and who a team like Michigan recruits....maybe Hoke needs to think about who is in charge.
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you seem to know so much about what drew henson and lloyd carr were thinking.you shouldnt just spout off about something you know nothing about.
tom brady still had two years remaining and the next year they brought in john navarro. so i dont see how what you claim to be fact is accurate.
but pearl mixed it up a little. Carr agreed not to take a QB in the class before Henson, not after. That's the story. I don't know if it's true. If you think about it, why would Henson be more concerned about recruits following him to AA? Looking at it another way, what QB would want to be in the class before Henson? He was the most heralded recruit in AA for decades. Only Gary rivals the attention he got.
stating something as fact because you heard it or read about, is the biggest problem with social media now days. if im not sure of something why even bring it up? everyday on any site you see things stated as if these people know what is going on.
i know it feels good to act like you have information that others may not, or just to sound smart. but how about having real facts to back up your statement?
I thought this was so well known that i didnt need to show proof. Here is a link and a quote from Henson's dad.
http://www.espn.com/colleges/michigan/football/story/_/id/9344977/drew-…
Dan Henson: At that point, he talked to Lloyd and he said if you commit as a junior, I won't recruit another guy after you. Some people made a big deal about that but the fact of the matter is that wasn't that big of an issue. It really wasn't.
Carr: I didn't have any major concerns that we wouldn't be able to recruit a guy in the next class. So that wasn't a big issue for me.
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Even if he isn't confident, he has to project it. In a scenario like that, you tell Shane - and father - I am sorry. I only want qbs who are confident enough to believe they'll emerge as the top man. You know we are extrememly short at that spot right now. I need a starter and two to groom. I'm taking at least two this year and another one this year. You can be a part of something great, possibly the leader, or you can get that assurance from an Eastern Michigan or someone of that caliber. I simply won't have player that demands the position be given to him.
Let me know w/in 48 hrs so I can move accoringly. And actually that type of demand should have been a red flag for Hoke right there. He is well aware of what happened when Carr did this with Henson, and we know -although he was decent - what the next three years brought.
You're either the unquestioned leader or someone the players will question.
And, personally, I think any top rated athlete would love to compete with those considered close to his equal. That spells depth and a quality program rather than desperation.
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don't diss hoke on qb competition...Morris And father would only commit if they were promised no competition. This is on morris, not hoke
If Hoke let himself get bullied like that by a recruit and his father, that's 100% on Hoke. And if it's true, Hoke's acquiesence is totally unsurprising.
Well, thank god Hoke bended over backward for him, seeing how critical Shane has been to the program.
Ka-Ching!!! Oscar wins the thread!
That Minny debacle was the most seminal event of the past decade in achieving our current position...
Only a few more links to Kevin Bacon. Keep it going.
Nothing Hoke could have done to derail that one.
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I'm not sure that Hoke could have followed a Harbaugh-esque QB recruiting strategy even if he wanted to.
Harbaugh is able to sell the University of Michigan - and the University of Harbaugh - to QB recruits. He is arguably the top destination if you are a Pro-style QBs looking to be developed for the NFL, and then connected to the NFL.
QBs are much more likely to take a chance on being on a Harbaugh team, knowing that even if they don't start, or don't start early, they will still be developed for the big prize - the NFL.
All top QBs think they will start, but being on a Harbaugh team is an extra insurance policy. And it is allowing Michigan to stock up on top QBs.
On a Hoke team on the other hand, if you do not have the visability of being the starter, you run the risk being buried on the bench, and subsequently a raw unknown to NFL scouts.
The reason that Hoke feared his QBs would leave (or not come in the first palce) if they were not the preordained guy . . . may have been because they would actually leave.
He could not do the take-it-or-leave-it thing that Harbaugh can do.
Hoke's biggest mistake may have been not bringing Brian Sipe with him from SDSU. I think it would be easier to recruit QBs by telling them, "you get to learn from NFL QB Brian Sipe," as opposed to, "you get to run every trick play from Al Borges' playbook,"
http://www.goaztecs.com/sports/m-footbl/bio-Sipe-Brian.html
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so maybe it was Brandon's mistake in not putting up the coin to make up the difference between living in SoCal and Ann Arbor. Hoke should have asked Brandon to pay for Sipe to come with him. Quarterback is sort of an important position, or so I'm told, and Borges just isn't a QB coach.
If he just takes a Speight-level recruit in 2012, then he has another option when Gardner was broken. The 2014 Minnesota game laid that mistake bare.
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The "surge" question was great. I hadn't considered that. Also a good, thought out response.
On a completely unrelated note: Notice how the 2 Ann Arbor prospects are the top 2 propsects in Michigan to currently NOT pick the Wolverines? I wonder if its one of those things where you are surrounded by Michigan your whole life, are a teenager, and want to "stick it to the man", so to speak. "I'll show everyone around me that nobody writes my future, I'm going to rival school X instead." Just curious if there is a mentality thing at play here. It would be interesting to see how we've done on previous Ann Arbor prospects. Wasn't Norfleet from Ann Arbor?
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No, MLK in Detroit
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