CFP Rankings DIscussion Thread: Week 4
Use this thread for your thoughts, predictions, and analysis of tonight's college football playoff rankings which are set to be released at 7pm.
Here are my predictions:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Iowa (more impressive than ND this week)
4. Notre Dame (needs an impressive win Saturday night to stay in it)
5. Michigan State (biggest jump of the week going ON the ROAD with a backup QB)
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Ohio State (as much as I hate to say it they are still in it)
9. Florida (unimpressive again)
10. Michigan (top 2 loss team, the NW common opponent common sense takes over)
November 24th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
I'm not big on the whole "good loss" out-weighs "good win" argument for ND.
OK, they have a great loss. But they don't have any really good wins at this point. They would not be in my top 4 right now.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
has ND ranked 6th in SOS. The next closest playoff contender is Alabama whose SOS is ranked 26th.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
to a team's single worst day out of 13 is rather myopic.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
Iowa, Oklahoma/ND...
November 24th, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^
If we don't make the B1G championship game, I'd like to see Iowa go all the way. I mean, they have to live in Iowa. They deserve to have something nice once in a while.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
Thisx1000. I DO NOT want Sparty to even make the playoffs. Iowa fans, while annoying the few times they're relevant, are better than having little brother and Ohio State having success.
Still rooting for PSU to embarass Sparty, preferably on a last-second TD of some sort (and controversial, to boot!). I always want Michigan to have a shot at the B1G Championship.
I do feel that if we somehow get this scenario (win vs. OSU and MSU loses) then we will be battling Iowa AND the refs again for the B1G title. The B1G knows a 2-loss Michigan is somewhat of a longshot, but an undefeated Iowa should be a lock. Conspiracy theory? Yes. Does it make it wrong? No.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Based on some of these predictions if we are #10 tonight and possibly even #11 I like our chances if we are able to make the Big Ten Championship game.
The big thing would be for Notre Dame to lose to Stanford.
It's been said many times but basically the playoff teams should come from the below list of teams:
ACC Champion, SEC Champion, Big 12 Champion, Big Ten Champion, Pac-12 Champion, and Notre Dame.
If Stanford beats Notre Dame, the Irish are out and I believe that the Pac-12 would have a hard time getting in above any Big Ten challenger based on conference head-to-head results.
If we get a Michigan win, an MSU loss, and a ND loss I think we'd have a decent shot with the Big Ten championship game especially against an undefeated Iowa. If Iowa loses to Nebraska then I think the Big Ten champ could be in trouble.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^
The Big Ten champ is in over any body with an equal number of losses.
Like it or not, one thing OSU did by winning the NC last year is prove that the B1G champ belongs in the Playoff.
If Michigan is the B1G champ, we are in over a 2-loss Pac 12 team. ND has to lose, but Iowa does not have to be undefeated when we play them.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
This is where I'm at. If we're not able to do it, I'm a huge Herky fan.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
For whatever reason I think Iowa will still be left out.
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Oklahoma
5 Iowa
6 MSU
7. Ohio State
8. Baylor
9 Florida
10 Stanford
November 24th, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Notre Dame
4) Oklahoma
B1G gets left out if MSU beats Iowa and Michigan beats Ohio State. Nebraska loss looks just as bad as a Texas loss and a big over 1-loss Baylor looks a whole lot better than a sketchy win over 2-loss Ohio State or an even sketchier win over 2-loss Michigan. Obviously there's still a lot of football to be played but Thai seems most likely to me.
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November 24th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
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November 25th, 2015 at 12:03 AM ^
Why would MSU get left out for ND? MSU would have beaten OSU, Iowa, and Michigan. And Oregon. ND does not have a bunch of big wins, only a "good" loss.
Wins need to matter more than just losing close.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
If we're not ahead of Florida their one loss to our two be damned then this whole thing is bullshit. When you struggle with a 2-8 Florida Atlantic you better be dropping.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
If I had to guess the top four right now:
Clemson, Notre Dame, Iowa, Alabama - not necessarily in order - and that Iowa could be in that picture despite having an SOS that probably is the statistical outlier among the four is interesting.
Next four -
Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma - big guess there. Bedlam is going to be a huge game for relative final position, I assume.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
I don't see Michigan jumping anybody that won, and the two OSUs that lost won't fall behind Michigan.
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Iowa
4 Notre Dame
5 Michigan St
6 Oklahoma
7 Ohio St
8 Baylor
9 Florida
10 Oklahoma St
11 Stanford
12 Michigan
These are the only teams with greater than 0% chance of getting into the playoff, with both Stanford and Michigan needing an exceptional amount of outside help to do so.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
Saw a former LSU alum on Mike & Mike this AM who made the comment -- unchallenged by anyone on the program -- to the effect that "of course the SEC is the best conference, so if a 12-1 Florida wins it, of course they will be in the playoff."
I just want to rant. The ESS-EE-SEE sucks this year. Yes, Bama is very good; set them to the side. Who else is good in the SEC? Florida, which went to OT with an FCS team? I count SEVEN B1G TEAMS that would BEAT Florida at a neutral site: MSU, Iowa, UM, OSU, NW, Neb, and even IU! (IU's fab O would score enough on Fla's fab D, around 17-21 points, which is more than Fla's anemic O could score on IU's bad D).
Other than Alabama over Wisconsin, who has the SEC beat this year? Florida will have a shot at FSU. Otherwise, they have no victory of significance. UT lost to OU. Ole Miss lost to Memphis. Arkansas to Toledo.
I'm rooting for FSU over Fla., then for Fla. to upset Bama, and the SEC would get no one into the playoff.
November 25th, 2015 at 12:07 AM ^
The Playoff will go from 4 teams to 8 teams, sooner rather than later.
But before it does, I hope to hell there is a year where the SEC gets completely shut out of it. The south will melt down.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
What about a one loss ND?
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November 24th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
The committee could have the choice of Oklahoma or Michigan State. Leave the Big 12 out again or leave the conference which won the NC last year out of it. And if Nebraska beats Iowa this week, that will make a Big 10 Chapionship game less meaningful.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
What has to happen for us to play Notre Dame in a bowl game?
We have to beat OSU obviously, but beyond that, what needs to happen?
November 24th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
The final four is most likely going to be Clemson, Alabama, MSU and Oklahoma. It's kind of a boring foresome IMHO. Not a lot of interesting characters, storylines or hatred amongst this group. Actually MSU has the most improbable story given their luck. Oh well.
November 24th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
Does anyone else feel that these two schools have extremly similar resumes? The only difference is, Florida is getting hammered by their close wins to inferior opponents and MSU is getting a pass on theirs.
November 24th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^
MSU has wins over Top 10ish OSU & Mich & 20ish Oregon (although Oregon wasn't good when MSU played them)
Fla has a win over 20ish OleMiss & outside Top 25 Georgia & Tennessee.
November 24th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
It's not like the committee isn't susceptible to the week to week bias of the other major polls.
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Iowa
5. Michigan State
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Ohio State
9. Oklahoma State
10. Florida
11. Stanford
12. Michigan
As much as we'd like Michigan to jump into the Top 10, the committee would really have to drop Okie State for losing to #10 Baylor and kill Florida for needing OT to beat FAU. Michigan could still theoretically get in if:
a) beat Ohio State (just do this anyways, please)
b) ND loses to Stanford, Stanford loses to USC/UCLA
c) Iowa beats Nebraksa, Michigan State loses to Penn State
d) Baylor loses to TCU, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State
e) Florida loses to Florida State
f) beat Iowa
At that point, the committee would have undefeated Clemson and 1-loss Alabama as guaranteed playoff teams.
The other contenders would be:
- a 2-loss (Clemson/Stanford) Notre Dame team with one victory (Navy) over a Top 25 team
- a 1-loss OK State team (with wins over TCU/Oklahoma)
- a 1-loss Iowa team (who would've just lost to Michigan)
- a 2-loss Florida team
In that scenario, I'd imagine the 4 teams would be:
1. Clemson (ACC Champ)
2. Alabama (SEC Champ)
3. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)
4. Michigan (Big 10 Champ)
November 24th, 2015 at 4:40 PM ^
Michigan could still theoretically get in if:
a) beat Ohio State (just do this anyways, please)
b) ND loses to Stanford, Stanford loses to USC/UCLA
c) Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan State loses to Penn State
d) beat Iowa
e) Baylor loses to TCU, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State
f) Florida loses to Florida State
Anything that's crossed out does not have to happen. If all the requirements (in black) occur but Stanford wins the PAC12 at two losses, we'd be in close contention w/ them for the last spot.