Week 11 Polls & Ratings: AP #15, Coaches #15
Your Week 11 Thread for all polls, rankings, and computer ratings discussion. Will update as they come in.
AP Poll #15: http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches Poll #15: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
F/+ #4: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
S&P+ #3: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
FEI #12: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Massey Ratings #18: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FBS
Sagarin Ratings #13 (#9 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI #16: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Michigan's team statistical profile:
Football Study Hall: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-michigan-advanced-statistical-profile
ESPN FPI: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2015
Massey Ratings: http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=279541
November 8th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
I think the CFP committee will put Michigan above TCU. They were willing to put Bama and ND over an undefeated TCU and their loss might boost their SOS a little bit, but they still have 1 loss with a weak SOS and no key wins.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
The committee may also treat Michigan differently from your typical 2 loss team since the loss to MSU came on a fluke play. I would not be surprised to see Michigan over TCU or other 1 loss teams.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
That means they would also treat MSU's loss differently in that it came via a blown call.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^
True. But that is a 3-6 team. You don't lose to a 3-6 team...
November 8th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^
A blown call is not as statistical an outlier as a twice dropped then gifted to punt blocker with 6-man convoy, with no time left on the clock.
MSU was up 12 points with 4 minutes left. Nebraska drove twice on them. The stopped them at the end when they idiotically ran out their own clock, despite being in field-goal range for the win.
Nebraska was also a 2-6 team heading into this.
Bottom line, MSU was riding last year's hype train (a la Auburn and MANY others), and was cutting it too close all year against mediocre teams.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
The CFP ranking doesn't matter anymore. We need OSU to beat MSU and then we beat OSU. That is the only conceivable scenario where we win the Big 10 and have a shot at the playoff.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^
In fairness, the CFP rankings outside the top 4 are irrelevant in general.
If MSU won out before Nebraska, they would have gone to the playoffs. If they win out now, they go to the Rose Bowl. That's all that matters.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^
EDIT: double
November 8th, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^
There's no reason why Maryland or Penn State might not hand MSU defeats. I mean,they did just lose to Nebraska...and narrowly escaped Rutgers and Purdue...and have relied pretty heavily on luck this season.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
Fact is the voters have just been waiting for MSU to lose a game all season long. They've looked like crap since opening against Western. If they had played like a undefeated team is supposed to in a decent (at best) conference, they might've been in the top 4 going into the Nebraska game.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
So many rankings...
/head spins
November 8th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
I'd take that.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
9-1.5 actually.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Seriously. Coaches poll is horses***. OSU is still #1 and Clemson is #2? And Wisconsin is ranked above NU? That should tell you how much they watch Football. Alabama just demolished LSU.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
They haven't beaten anyone. All Northwestern's done is beat a top 10 Stanford team.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
Proof that the coaches poll is a joke?
Roll back to MSMoo's three point win over Purdue--PURDUE!--at East Lansing, after being favored by over three scores. The coaches poll comes out after that weekend and MooU gets ONE first place vote!!?? The person who cast that vote? Pitt's Pat Narduzzi.
I rest my case.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
There is a slight chance for Alabama to be above OSU.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
I don't think they care much about last year. Last year Alabama was 12-1 and lost to a 9-3 Ole Miss and was #1 when FSU was defending national champ and 13-0. I think Bama taked the 2 spot and Clemson and OSU stay were they are.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:56 PM ^
You also have to consider that the Ole Miss loss looks a lot worse today after they lost to Arkansas and Memphis lost.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 6:18 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
I understand your point, but Indiana gave up 55 points to Rutgers and even RR and Hoke never lost to them. I fully expect Harbaugh and his staff to be able to exploit their weaknesses on defense. Also, Mattison has seen their hurry up offense plenty of times and should be able to handle it.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
I totally agree with this. Everything else does not matter. Indiana is actually a dangerous team that we could lose to if we look ahead. Week by week. If we win the Big 10 championship I;m pretty sure we are in the playoff.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^
Updated in OP now.
November 8th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
I don't even care if we get left out of the playoff. I'll be more than happy with a Big Ten championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl in year one of the Harbaugh era.
November 8th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
I don't think we're ready yet to take on the likes of Alabama and win, but a trip to the Rose Bowl against maybe Stanford, or hell, exercising some demons against USC or Utah, would be pretty darn sweet in year one of the Harbaugh era.
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November 8th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
let them join a health club. Otherwise, let's just exorcise them.
/s
November 8th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^
Yeah, the polls only mattered in the event of a 3-way tie breaker in the Big Ten. Now, that can't happen.
If we win out and OSU beats MSU, then it's just between Michigan and Ohio State, as God intended.
If we win out and MSU beats OSU then it's just between Michigan and MSU, and we are SOL unless Penn State can take down Sparty.
But it can't be a three way tie no matter what (unless we all have 2 losses and that's just too weird to talk about.
November 8th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
If we win out and OSU beats MSU, then it's just between Michigan and Ohio State, as God intended.
It's been a while since the last time that happened (2007 to be exact).
November 8th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
Using Massey projections on winning probabilities, we currently have an estimated 22.85% chance of winning out and a combined 48.44% estimated probability of going 2-1, with the most likely scenario among those three a loss to OSU, a scenario currently estimated at 31.55%. If you had asked me if we'd be looking at projections like that in August, I probably would have said "no".
November 8th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
To play this out a little further, our clearest path to the BTCG is winning out and having MSU lose at least one more game. These probabilities aren't independent, so this is a little off, but here's roughly what Massey would say:
UM beats Indiana: 85%
UM beats PSU: 64%
UM beats OSU: 42%
MSU loses at least one more game: 85%
Probability of all of those things happening: 19%
November 8th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^