Rudock, O'Korn, & QB Roster Management
I don't know about you guys, but I am tired of talking and thinking about the game this weekend.
So, I wanted to get a discussion going about the "ideal situation" that the Michigan program has brewing in its QB roster, and in doing so, discuss the pivotal roles that Rudock is playing this season -- despite his limitatons -- and that O'Korn (likely) will play in 2016 and 2017.
While discussing freshmen playing Coach Harbaugh commented on QB's and OLinemen benefitting from a first year redshirt. Discussions concerning the starting of freshmen QB's primarily focus upon their propensity to make "freshmen mistakes," i.e., inexperience. While true, the "roster management" ramifications of starting a freshmen QB are not as readily apparent, but can be far more damaging long term.
Early playing time for a QB, more so than any other position, has a tendency to scare off other potential QB recruits -- they don't want to potentially sit behind the guy for three years and only get one year at the helm. The results are multi-class talents gaps, with the results being not only a shallow depth chart, but also a higher likelihood that the next top QB will also be a freshmen starter, thus perpetuating the issue.
Much of the discussion concering Rudock is about his liabilities versus is assets. While I think those are important, I think far more important is what his, and O'Korn next year, presence on the team does for Michigan's QB developmental cycle going forward. Basically, Michigan's QB roster is shaping up to have a nice consistent flow from redshirt, developmental 3rd string, back up, and starter for two seasons.
Below is the current Michigan QB roster. Obviously, Rudock is gone, and guys like Cleary, Moores, and Thompson are not likely to factor into the equation, but you never know.
- Jake Rudock 5th
- Brian Cleary Sr
- Garrett Moores Jr
- Shane Morris Jr
- John O'Korn Jr
- Wilton Speight So
- Matt Thompson So
- Zach Gentry Fr
- Alex Malzone Fr
Harbaugh has spoken about the desire to get Morris a RS (hopefully he gets it), and O'Korn effectively redshirted this season. Assuming Shane's redshirt works out, both Gentry and Malzone redshirt this season, and incoming QB's redshirt, next year the QB roster will be as follows (years of eligibility):
- Shane Morris ('16, '17*)
- John O'Korn ('16, '17)
- Wilton Speight ('16, '17, '18*)
- Zach Gentry ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Alex Malzone ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Brandon Peters ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
-
Vic Viramontes ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
* assuming 5th year given
From the sounds of things next year's starting QB competition is O'Korn's to lose. At this point, many find it hard to believe Morris is ever going to be a starter at Michigan, so he's either going to stay and be a back up, or decide to transfer. Either way, I'm guessing O'Korn starts '16 and '17, with Morris, Speight, Malzone, and Gentry competing for the back-up spot.
Obviously projecting forward is hard, but I think it's clear that Michigan's QB roster is not going to have huge gaps in it, and the possibilty of having to start a true freshmen -- or even a RS freshmen -- is extremely remote.
As we're seeing this season, a team usually only goes as far as their QB can take them. The prize for winning the QB competition should be two seasons as the starter, and if there is to be three year starter it almost guaranteed that his ascension is one of overwhelming talent, and not necessiry.
To me, this bodes very well for the reestablishment of Michigan as a national power, and is EXTREMELY exciting.
Thoughts?
October 18th, 2015 at 9:10 PM ^
DISCUSS
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October 18th, 2015 at 10:07 PM ^
I think O'Korn wins the job next year. I really won't be surprised if Brandon Peters ends up being the second best QB on the team, even if he ends up with a redshirt. AFAIC, the QB position is going to be in great hands next year. Safeties won't be able to play the run and the short pass by default because Michigan will have someone who is naturally predisposed to hit deep passes.
This is not an indictment of Rudock. He and Harbaugh have teamed to get a lot out of his talent base. He just doesn't have the accuracy on the deep ball to keep defenses honest. It's to both Rudock's and Harbaugh's credit that the offense has done as well as it has, considering they are allowing the other man to cover Michgan's best receivers man to man without consequences for getting beaten deep.
Different QB's have different talents. Rudock is great at managing a game and hitting short passes without a lot of risk. He has every talent a QB needs except one. Sometimes, that's just the way it goes. He is better than everyone else on the roster, so he must be doing something right.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^
Didn't O'Korn transfer from Houston because he lost his position? That's usually not a good sign.
October 19th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
Houston's coaches messed with O'Korn's throwing mechanics to make him fit their system. Harbaugh wants to restore him back to his natural method of throwing, which should give him a better chance of success than Houston's methods of "coaching him down."
October 18th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^
Stay tuned...
October 18th, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^
Why would he leave BYU and why would Harbaugh take another 5th year guy when he has already has a promising collection of young QBs?
October 18th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
I thought that until I read this.
www.vanquishthefoe.com/2015/9/16/9323935/byu-football-taysom-hill-michigan-stanford-duke-who-knows
October 18th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^
The fact is that he is a Mormon and is from the West Coast. Plus, you have no idea if Harbaugh even wants him. He isn't a great passer and is fragile.
Just because someone writes a post suggesting that something COULD occur that does not mean it will or is even likely to happen.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:21 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:25 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
I'm pretty sure Harbaugh would take a Heisman trophy candidate QB if he wanted to come here.
He wouldn't be under the same amount pressure to run here like he was at BYU.
It beats playing a true freshman and it gives you a possibility of playing senior QBs for the next TWO years.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:30 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:32 PM ^
but his injury is very difficult to come back from and still play football at a high level. He is more than likely done with football.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:34 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^
I think the bigger issue would be recruiting. Who wants to go somewhere, where they are consistently bringing in a 5th year to start. Why bother?
October 18th, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^
offense that is very different from what BYU is running. He is not going to come here. Not when UM already has a QB with plenty of playing experience AND a year of tutelage under Harbaugh.
You should stop it with the Hill fantasy.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:47 PM ^
I'm having flashbacks to when people told me and swore up and down a year ago on here that Harbaugh would never come here.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
So you're the Michigan transfer whisperer now?
October 18th, 2015 at 11:24 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:26 AM ^
Since we're completely speculating on something that is not going to happen and does not need to happen, why not bring him in here to be an H-Back that can actually throw the ball just to really have some fun with defenses.
Both FB's will be gone, after all.
October 19th, 2015 at 6:41 AM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:31 AM ^
"Just because someone writes a post suggesting that something COULD occur that does not mean it will or is even likely to happen."
You shut your mouth. It does too.
Sources: Kate Upton to sleep with M-Dog.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:22 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^
I mentioned Gentry, but I really think he needs a couple of years before he's ready to start/better than O'Korn. My point in my OP is that the future roster situation looks good as we should be seeing 2-3 years of development before starting.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
How would you know how much time Gentry needs?
October 18th, 2015 at 11:06 PM ^
this thread is about how the current roster lines up for QBs (as listed by the OP) in the next two or more years, not about possible 5th year transfers.
But given the hijack, I think Taysome Hill's injury is not compatible with playing anywhere next year.
October 18th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^
See everyone, it's a sign he's coming here! People are already misspelling his name.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
Direct quote from the Hill article:
We're all just speculating right now.
October 19th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
, which we're short on and could play several positions, not just QB, There's always room for a versatile and smart player. All heresay to this point of course.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:32 PM ^
Do you really take up a scholarship for a team struggling to find spots for 2016 recruits for a guy who has lasted 1-4 games on ave the past few yrs?
On the hope he can last a even half a year? It seems doubtful.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
I doubt he comes, but if he did, he would be a one year player.
If he would be the best QB on the roster, than yes absolutely you take him.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:23 PM ^
Easy to say but this is a roster bursting at the seams esp if we land about 50% of the guys we are "favorite or top 2" for. Even assuming some of the 5th year seniors "try out" and fail, and a QB (or 2) transfers. We have a ton of guys on scholarship and committed and want to get another 6 more (to 28) it sounds like. Not everyone can be here. And then people want 5th year grad transfer LBs on top of it all.
After the 2016 season we lose a ton of players and we'll have room all over the place for this but not after this season. Every scholarship is going to matter and this guy can't last 2-3 games.
October 19th, 2015 at 3:18 AM ^
Yes, but you can't treat QB like just any other position on the field. The first and foremost question is, do you have a QB that you can win with right now?
If that answer is yes, then fine. But if the answer is 'no' then holding a scholarship open for a freshman not your top priority.
With the right QB, this team is easily a playoff contender in 2016. Most people assume that O'Korn is the best QB on the roster, but by your own analysis, the variance of likely outcomes for O'Korn could very well turn out to be a reprise of what we got out of Jake Rudock this year.
With Jake Rudock 2.0, we will probably look an awful lot like this year - able to dominate poor teams, but coming up just short against Top 10 teams.
Obviously you can't take him if you don't believe he can stay healthy. But if you think he can play, then I dont see how you turn down a high upside QB and make due with Rudock 2.0, just so you can make room for a true freshman who may or may not work out somewhere down the line.
I mean, I would love to land Rashan Gary, but if I had to chose between Gary and 1-year QB with enough talent to get us into the playoff next year, than I take that QB and hope for the best.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^
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October 19th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
TING!!
Everyone will buy it when you first come in to a depleted roster, but not if this becomes your mode of operation.
At some point you have to get your own guys and develop them, not somebody else's.
I would not assume that the Rudock situation was something Harbaugh wanted to do as opposed to something he felt he had to do.
Given Harbaugh's history and background, I would expect that he wants to develop his own guys over multiple years, and not keep renting somebody else's.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:30 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 11:01 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:20 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:21 PM ^
Retired from football forever. Dude is too injury prone plus he'll be graduating this year and he's already got a wife. Why uproot yourself for a year of football when a pro career clearly won't happen?
October 19th, 2015 at 1:46 PM ^
If you knew that you only had one year of football left, would you quit or try to make the most of the short time you had left?
If I had one last year to play football and I had a choice between playing for a playoff contender or quiting early so that I could hang out with my wife, I'm pretty sure I know which one I would choose (with apologies to the wife).
October 19th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^
Russell Wilson has totally warped many peoples' sense of reality regarding value and effectiveness of 5th year transfers.
The stable of guys who will have worked with Harbaugh for all of this year are the best and most likely possibilities.
October 19th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
Those three quarter he would end up playing for Michigan would be glorious, I'll give you that.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:14 PM ^
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