Question for those who have watched MSU this year: have they looked bored?

Submitted by Erik_in_Dayton on

I'm asking this because MSU has been doing the sort of winning the last couple of years that often leads to complacency.  OSU looks to me like they suffer from champions' malaise* this year.  Florida State looked like that last year to me at times too.  I wouldn't be surprised if MSU is plagued by that this season. 

I know MSU has had some injuries this year, but have they also looked like they're waiting to turn it on, so to speak, when they play Michigan (and whomever else they consider worthy of their full attention)?  Or do their flaws seem to be more about their injuries, the loss of Narduzzi, losses to graduation, etc.? 

Any insight you can provide on this (as well as unrelated gifs, snarky comments, jokes about koalas, questions about the heath of my mother - she's fine, by the way) would be greatly appreciated.  Spasibo.

 

 

 

*Yes, the sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament.

4EverBlueGirl

October 14th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^

Bored?  No.  Bad?  Yes.

 

They have been outplayed a lot of the time.  Special teams are awful. Secondary is depleted and like a sieve.  Defense misses Narduzzi. Cook has been decent, but he doesn't seem to get the respect from the team that a 5th year Senior should get--and their offensive play calling hasn't been terribly exciting.  Price was good when healthy.  Their stable of backs look decent. They have had very few turnovers this season.  Oh, and their coach is still an ass.

 

 

BornInAA

October 14th, 2015 at 4:21 PM ^

injuries, the loss of Narduzzi, losses to graduation

yes these

their secondary is thin same with the OL

So they have A-level QB, B receivers, B DL, C OL, D secondary

I really think we will see a lot of sacks on Cook and a lot of long ball success

Tuebor

October 14th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^

I don't know about bored. 

They ran out to some pretty big leads (20+) in 3 of their games.

WMU they were up 20 at half time and up 24 in the third quarter

AFA they were up by 28 points in the 3rd quarter before giving up 14 points to end the game.

Purdue they were up by 21 points at half time

Against Oregon they were up by 10 twice. Both times in the 3rd and 4th quarter

Against CMU they were only up by 7 going into the 4th quarter but scored two TDs in the final quarter to win it by 20

Against Rutgers they were down 4 at halftime but built up a 10 point lead in the third quarter before allowing rutgers back in it and requiring a game winning drive with 4 minutes left.

 

The clearly have the ability to be a dominant team but I don't think they have played a full 60 minutes of their best football.  Calling it bored I don't know but I'm worried that playing UM might be the kick in the pants MSU needs to get thier act together.  If they play at 100% for a full 60 minutes this game will be closer than anticipated.

I think the Rutgers performance was likely due to some shock at the UM score and resulting focus issues.

Newton Gimmick

October 14th, 2015 at 10:47 PM ^

All truly horrible teams.  As in, all ranked in the bottom half of FBS by every analytics metric I've seen.  On the other hand, we've played three teams ranked in the Top 30.

They have big-play ability on offense and will get a few sacks.  They will probably get a long pass or two that might score points.  If Michigan doesn't turn the ball over multiple times, we've taken away their only shot.

It's possible that they just haven't "put a whole game together."

It's just as likely that they'll play an entirely bad game.

Drailok

October 14th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^

I think the opposite is true.
MSU has been playing for their lives every game this season.
I believe this has caused the increase in injuries, as they have had their best players giving 100% every single down this year.
They're going to run out of gas soon.

SF Wolverine

October 14th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^

Good talent, staff develops that talent, but for three years now they have gone relatively uninjured.  That worm has turned, and they are both without some of the high-end talent in the seconary that graduated, and playing depth guys all over.  I don't think they are bored at all; just struggling.  At 6-0 with those struggles, they ought to feel pretty good.  I do not think they will feel that good Saturday evening.

alum96

October 14th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

Yep their advanced stats almost mirror Neb who is 2-4.  Neb has lost on last drive 3 of those games and has 4 losses by a combined 11 pts.

Meanwhile MSU had an overthrow from Adams, a doofus play by rutgers QB, and a purdue failed 4th down at midfield.

Small things but they could be 3-3 and be Nebraska of the north if they had faced a Mangum instead of whatever Purdue rolled out or Adams finger wasnt broken etc.

To their credit they found ways to win and not derp those games despite making them very close.  That annoys me.

uncleFred

October 15th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^

Alum96 is a great contributor and one of our every fewer voices of sanity, so I picked a reply here to make a point. 

There is an aspect of winning where a team learns to win. I'm not talking about toughness or heart or desire, but what happens when a team refuses to lose. It's not tangible, but it's real none the less. 

Michigan is arguably a better overall team than MSU. They are playing at home, and there is no question that Michigan's coaching is far better than MSU's. Had these teams been trading wins, I'd say MIchigan stomps MSU, but MSU is used to winning, not just against us but in general. 

Maybe Harbaugh will surprise them for a quick 14-21 points and the defense will throttle MSU. More likely MSU will go on a rampage and it will be touch and go to the very end. I think that Michigan will win. God knows I want Michigan to win. But I have no expectations for this game. Can't. To many intangibles. I'll just yell at the TV and pull for my team and hope for the best.

BlueinLansing

October 14th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^

bored as hell against Purdue, led 21-0.  

 

Howeva'  they are not as big, fast or physical on defense as they have been in recent years.  They have been susceptable to cut back runs against the pursuit with their safeties being late.  Coverage wise, they're still good except it seems like you can get behind and in front of them more than before, not seeing the great speed they had a couple years ago.

 

Offense, well the OL injuries have taken their toll.  They still run hard and pound out yards but if they really needed a long drive and couldn't throw the ball I'm not sure they would get very far just running the ball.  What makes this team go is their collection of excellent WR's.  They don't drop balls and catch everything thrown at them.  Connor Cook is at least two steps better than any QB we've faced.  The real question is if we can get to him.  He's not a great thrower under presure like most QB's but he's much more likely to put one on the money in those tight windows than anyone we've played so far.

Special teams is a disaster waiting to happen against what appears to be a very good Michigan special teams unit.  Kick coverages have been mediocre at best

 

I expect State to play really well and we'll get their best shot, but for the first time in a couple years I see a few places where Michigan probably has an advantage and can take advantage.

 

won't be anything like the last 3 weeks.

UMProud

October 14th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^

MSU plays to the level of the competitor for some odd reason.  But Dantonio has a body of work that shows he knows how to win.  While I'm cautiously optimistic about winning I think Sparty is going to be a helluva competitor.

Mr. Yost

October 14th, 2015 at 4:32 PM ^

They're just not an elite team.

I just don't know how bad...are they like Michigan a couple of years back who squeaked by Akron and UConn? I believe it was Akron...but you remember that year, unfortunately.

or are they just a regular ol 8-4/9-3 type team?

They did bea better than average Oregon team. Not elite. Not OREGON. But a decent team...better than Akron (I believe it was Akron) and UConn is my point.

I'll call them a good 9-win Pelini Nebraska type team.

Newton Gimmick

October 14th, 2015 at 10:55 PM ^

They are an absolute awful defensive team -- check the advanced stats, whichever you want, they are ranked in the 120s.  Utah spent the whole game laughing and giving them noogies -- in their own stadium.

I'm curious -- did anyone here watch that MSU/Oregon game start to finish and think those teams were really good, Top 10 teams?  They did not look that way to me at all.  Inaccurate passes, undisciplined defense, mistake-prone special teams, guys left wide open but still unable or barely able to catch errant passes.

Burbridge is the only guy that could win the game for them -- he could be their Braylon. But he will have Jourdan Lewis shadowing him.  I feel good about this.  People are praising Connor Cook for his performance against Rutgers but those DBs were flailing around cluelessly.  Cook can't do much if guys aren't open.

MichiganWolverine'14

October 14th, 2015 at 4:37 PM ^

I don't think it's boredom or the fact that they're bad, they just have no depth. Yeah, they're injured, but that's no excuse. If we have a couple of guys in our secondary go down, yeah it's going to hurt us, but we're not going to become completely porous. Schematically, we have the guys who are versatile enough to compensate. They have good starters but not much behind them, and I think that's why they're struggling more this year. The depth of their Rose Bowl team was not tested.



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Eye of the Tiger

October 14th, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^

I would say "hesitant," "cautious," "slow," "distracted," etc.

The defense just isn't the same without Narduzzi calling the plays, and the talent is really lacking in the secondary. On offense, the passing attack is quite good but the running game is in transition--something they haven't really dealt with for a while, having had the luxury of going from Baker to Bell to Langford (all now in the NFL). It isn't bad, per se, but it's just not up to their recent standards, and without that, the offense has a tendency to stall.

They look pretty good, as a whole. Just not "really good" like they have the past two years.

I'm guessing we beat them and so does OSU. The rest of their schedule is a cakewalk, unless Nebraska manages to un-Riley themselves in that game. So finishing 10-2 (6-2) seems likely, with 9-3 (5-3) less likely but not unimaginable. 

Hill Street Blue

October 14th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^

Watched WMU (w/a really good QB) have some surprising success against Sparty's defense.  Thought it was just opening game rust.  Looking now over the season, I wonder if two things are happening;

1) Offenses are figuring out how to attack the Sparty D, and

2) With Narduzzi gone, the Sparty D has stopped evolving (see #1).

MGoBlue Eeyore

October 14th, 2015 at 4:42 PM ^

It's easy to grade State lower this year given our respective performances, but they've still found a way to win thus far. I remember Ace discussing the tire fire that was State's offense at the beginning of the season a couple years ago, and they figured it out, and I can still remember Michigan's lackluster game against Ball State in '06 (which was one of Michigan's best years of the decade). Bored? No. But work in progress? Check.

I really like our chances in two phases of the game, but the offense is the one question mark that precludes me from feeling comfortable about a win.

Mr Miggle

October 14th, 2015 at 8:04 PM ^

That made a huge difference. I don't think there are comparable solutions to the problems they've had this season. With a QB like Cook, they're always capable of having a big game, but I don't expect them to show improvement consistently. .

123blue

October 14th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^

They've played a soft schedule (somewhere between 80-90th in the nation) and they don't look good.  Their team stats, during the dark years in A2, were good on both sides of the ball (and great on D).  This year, their team stats range from mediocre on offense to bad on defense.  Given the soft schedule that looks even worse.

As for theories, I've got a tin hat one for you:
-They suffered (it seems, unless I'm mistaken) very few injuries during our dark years.  Their DC bolts and suddenly, they're plagued with injuries.  Maybe it was Narduzzi providing "supplements"; maybe they cycled off to avoid tests; maybe it's just a giant coincidence.  In any event, they're like a football version of Pudge Rodriguez.  Suddenly, so different.

CRISPed in the DIAG

October 14th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^

How has Malik McDowell played this year? I remember seeing him shove an OLineman into the backfield on a play against Oregon and being afraid.  Should I be afraid of him?  Has he done anything since this singular play?  

MDot

October 14th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^

It does feel like this year's MSU team is the type to play up or down to the level of it's competition. With the exception of thier last game, they had complete control of pretty much every game with the chance to blow it open, and just let the opposing team hang around.

 

That offense can make plays when it needs to. Feels like Cook is capable of doing what he did last week (350+) whenever they need him to.

 

There is no "on/off" switch for that defense, though. They've lost their most constant player of Defense before the season started (Davis), most athletic CB (Copeland), most experienced DB (Williamson), and the player who was getting potential All-American hype has been a bust for them (Montae N.). And they don't recruit at an elite level, so the depth isn't there to overcome that type of shit.

 

The Narduzzi thing is overplayed, that defense fell off big time last year (they won because their offense averaged 45pts a game). Narduzzi is/was a great coach, but those Defense's were great because they unearthed some gems. They ran out of gems. It was going to happen eventually...

 

Biggest concern is: MSU's biggest weakness is in that horrible secondary. They can be beat deep. The biggest flaw in Ruddock's play so far? Exactly. He'll have the exact same players breaking free in the secondary as he did in the Utah game. He has to make those plays for UM to win.

A State Fan

October 14th, 2015 at 5:00 PM ^

As someone who's watched every minute of every game: Yes they have looked bored at times. No that's not the reason these games have been close.

MSU has run out be good leads in every game except for Rutgers, and from that point has just tried to end the game as quickly as possible. Against Purdue it made some sense. We were down to our center playing RT, didn't want to have many passing situations where Cook could be killed. Against other teams it didn't make much sense.

Our play calling seems to be based on the fact that our defense can hold a lead, which so far hasn't been the case. Injuries and youth have contribued to a bad defensive backfield and giving up points. ST has put us in a hole a few times.

I'm looking for MSU to attack for a full 4 quarters like it does in the first 25 minutes of games. It had to against Rutgers, and we ended up with 31 points and left a few points on the field. Against Michigan we can't afford to settle because we're not going to be able to get up 21 points in the first 4 drives of the game.

SalvatoreQuattro

October 14th, 2015 at 5:38 PM ^

goal shocked me. Did it shock you? A Narduzzi defense would not have allowed that(much less  the early bomb and long run by Rutgers) Rutgers to do that. Rutgers was actually moving the ball again when they imploded at the end.(Because Rutgers)

It seems to me that MSU has some serious problems that go beyond motivational and inury issues and into schematic/coaching. No way should Rutgers have been able to move the ball 90 yards against you. Not with Chris Leviano at the helm.

The points you left on the field were due to errors. Errors that won't necessarily go away. The special teams in particular have to be a grave concern for Dantonio.

Eye of the Tiger

October 14th, 2015 at 5:54 PM ^

It's gone from lights-out and near impossible to out-scheme (2012-13) to very good with an exploitable flaw that allows some offenses to out-scheme it (2014) to pretty good but also much easier to out-scheme (2015).

Offenses have figured it out, the roster isn't as balanced as it was, and it's also not being run as well as it was.

Meanwhile the offense isn't as balanced either--the run game is solid but a major step down from the Baker/Bell/Langford years.

In the end, MSU is a good team and a dangeous team, but not a great team anymore.

charblue.

October 14th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^

than saying bored. This team responds to the challenge their opponent presents.

Because they have a senior quarterback who has an incredible winning record, this team possesses an incredible confidence about itself. But at times that confidence can lead to complacency. This and the fact that it has had injuries at key posiitons has led, I believe, to lesser efficiency in their offensive and defensive game.

What I have also noticed is that their coach looks more pained than usual when watching his team perform, as if his anxiety about their success is greater because there is a thinner line for failure to reach the goals he and his team have set. The Spartans are formidable challenge for any team, especially Michigan.

But for the first time since the Carr years, Michigan has the coaching answer to supress the motivational hate that drives the Spartan cause against the Wolverines. Michigan isn't bad-mouthing the program; it's praising it. It's left the rivalry motivation for Dantonio to stir up, using his patented Rodney Dangerfield card: We get no respect from the media and or the football pundits, who lately have been singing the praises of Michigan without any word from Harbaugh suggesting anything other than a lunch pail perspective: We've won some games, good for us, we got another this week, we're getting ready for it. That is all. See ya.

Dantonio is left to square dance with music from that old time religion chorus of little brother where art thou. See ya Saturday, We'll be ready -- to kick your Spartan ass.

bronxblue

October 14th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

They were weakening on defense last year, but they didn't play a whole lot of teams who were any good to really exploit it, and they still had a first-down DB and an all-conference safety.  Now, though, they have a pretty bad secondary (at least compared to past years) even when guys like Hicks and Williamson weren't hurt, and they aren't consistently getting enough pressure with their front 7 to cover that up.  I think their defensive line is still pretty good, but the LBs seem a step off from last year (Davis was a big loss regardless of what anyone says), so guys are getting to the second level and not getting stopped immediately, and then said secondary has to make tackles.  They aren't getting blown off the ball or anything, but MAC teams are either beating their yardage or nearly doing so on the regular.

As for the offense, it's pretty good, though their running game has struggled even when the OL was healthy.  Scott and London are good backs (Scott is better), but they are very boom-or-bust; like, London had a 60+ TD run against Oregon and then 40-ish yards on the other 17 carries.  Burdbridge is a very good receiver though I also think he's played the easier corners on their schedule.  Price is a good TE, but he's been hurt and who knows.  Cook is a very good QB until he gets some pressure, then he can struggle (which is true for most QBs).  He played better against Rutgers and their pressure, but he also was bailed out by some nice grabs by his receivers.  With better coverage, some of those don't happen.  He is very accurate, though, on longer throws, and can move.  He does feel like a slightly better Cousins with a better arm, so he can kill you or he can be a bit too cowboy and try to muscle a ball in there when he shouldn't.  

In general, I do think they play a bit down to their competition due to disinterest, but they also REALLY cared about Oregon and nearly blew that game to a mediocre outfit.  They have had an easy schedule thus far (their game against Rutgers was the first time they left the state this year) and haven't looked all that good doing it.  They're probably still the 2nd/3rd best team in the conference depending on this weekend's results, but don't less MSU fans telling you this was always a "rebuilding year" fool you - they were poised to be better than they look thus far.

UMForLife

October 14th, 2015 at 5:32 PM ^

They played well on Defense last year, but not that good. They were not elite last year. They regressed further this year due to graduation and injuries. Their main issue is that they don't have the talented depth that other elite teams have. I would not say that they are bored. I think they were over confident in their abilities in each of those games that they were up. I personally believe it is because of lack of talented depth or talent that is not developed yet. Rutgers game was different. They did not look like a good team because their starters on offense were not full strength and they don't have good second stringers. But I want to point out that we have injuries, players left the program, a borrowed QB, graduation, departure to NFL. A lot of them are key starters that could have played solid minutes as starters. So, I don't buy into the idea that they are not great because of injuries. I think they are not great because they have injuries and not enough talented depth. We are better because we have better depth.

LSAClassOf2000

October 14th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^

I suppose you could make an argument that they are complacent to a certain extent with nearly a decade of relative success, but they are feeling a few graduations too, if you will, and I wonder if we're seeing just how well-coordinated that defense was under Narduzzi, or rather, how much he might have mattered to the overall quality of play at Michigan State. Their numbers on defense definitely are at un-Spartan levels on several metrics. On the team and on the staff, there has definitely been a talent drain, I think - I wonder if it came with a chemistry change too. 

snarling wolverine

October 14th, 2015 at 5:54 PM ^

There is some beautiful feelingsball in this thread.

My take: MSU hasn't looked very good because they aren't very good.  No psychoanalysis needed.  Their run game is mediocre, their pass defense is bad, and their special teams are bad.  Meanwhile their strengths (pass offense and rush defense) aren't nearly as much so as last year.  They're an 8-4-level team that has played a terrible schedule to date.  They will be exposed.  

DoubleYost

October 14th, 2015 at 6:01 PM ^

Why was it ok for Sparty to pound their chests going into last year's game knowing they'd win handily, but God forbid Michigan fans have an attitude of confidence and assurance..?



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