SI's Ellis Predicts Records for New Head Coaches (Harbaugh predicted 6-6)
I think it's on the low half of 1st standard deviation events, and it's likely done to generate a reaction from a large and active fanbase.
August 12th, 2015 at 3:59 AM ^
I'm concerned about their progress, though. They've seen enough systems and schemes, that I'm wondering how screwed up their development is at this point.
August 12th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
We also add Isaac. Big addition, figuratively and literally.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:19 PM ^
Do we really only have 11 returning starters? I thought we had more like 15 or 16.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:25 PM ^
On defense we just lose Ryan, Clark, Countess, and Beyer I believe.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:19 PM ^
"The Wolverines return just 11 starters, including five on an offense that finished eighth or worse in the Big Ten in every major category last fall"
We return 8 on offense; the only losses were Gardner, Funchess, and Miller.
and don't we return 7 on defense too?
August 11th, 2015 at 7:21 PM ^
Don't know why these guys are so low on us. The 6-6 and 7-5 everybody is predicting aren't really much better than Hoke's last year. Good thing games are won on the field and not on SI or ESPN.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:27 PM ^
Well considering the trend of Hoke's tenure 4-8 would be what was expected if he were still coach. So 7-5 is a 3 win improvement.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:24 PM ^
7-5 is my prediction as well.
Not hope obviously, but prediction.
Michigan was on a downward slide and i think it will take time for any "Harbaugh Effect" to kick in fully.
This team barely had a pulse most games last year and while I'm confident that Harbaugh won't ineptly fuck a game away like Hoke did last year, we are still an unlucky bounce away from a couple extra losses.
Remember, apart from the understandable losses to ND, MSU, & OSU, we also lost to Utah, Maryland, Minnesota & Rutgers. Oh yeah, we did squeak by NW & PSU.
This season I will care MUCH less about actual wins & losses than how competitive Michigan actually looks.
August 11th, 2015 at 10:01 PM ^
This season (and Harbaugh) is all about wins. Compete was the Hoke era (all 4 years of it) - if this team doesn't win 8 - 9 this season it will be hugely disappointing. Harbaugh and staff will get us points and stops that Hoke never had a clue about. This Michigan team has some talent - but was never coached to win ... that all changed in less than 4 weeks!
Go Blue!
August 12th, 2015 at 1:56 AM ^
blog were predicting 2015 as the year Hoke would win the B1G, since all his young recruits would become Junior and Seniors. I bet Harbaugh has no youth excuses!
August 11th, 2015 at 7:23 PM ^
Pay no mind. Embrace the bunker and get ready for us to beat the shit out of the Utes with a vastly improved Morris at the helm of our Harbaughffense.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:27 PM ^
Why you gotta make it so controversial?
August 11th, 2015 at 7:31 PM ^
I don't think he's controversial. I don't care who we roll out there as long as they're good. Moores Cleary etc.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:04 PM ^
I don't care who it is either. But acting like it's cut and dry who the qb is at this stage is premature.
August 11th, 2015 at 9:00 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:12 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:25 PM ^
23 days.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:26 PM ^
I say closer to 25-2, assuming implementation of Leach's 100 team playoff system.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:26 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:03 PM ^
year
August 11th, 2015 at 7:28 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:29 PM ^
If you can't even get the number of returning starters correct, your opinion is worthless.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:08 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:45 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:46 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:51 PM ^
Painting in very broad strokes, let's say the odds of U-M winning each game are:
10% for OSU, MSU
50% for PSU, Minnesota, Utah
75% for BYU, Maryland, Northwestern
90% for Oregon State, Rutgers, Indiana
100% for UNLV
Expected number of victories = 7.65
Standard Deviation in number of victories = 1.33
z-score on a 6-6 season = -1.24
(I love Excel, it literally took 2 minutes to simulate all of that)
August 11th, 2015 at 7:57 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:03 PM ^
Expected (average number of) wins = 7.9
Standard Deviation of wins = 1.37
z-score on a 6-6 season = -1.39
August 11th, 2015 at 8:21 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:48 PM ^
or north american?
August 12th, 2015 at 12:55 AM ^
I think you're overrating Minnesota and underrating BYU, but those balance out.
August 11th, 2015 at 7:51 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:04 PM ^
National writers are usually dipshits in regards to Michigan. Uninformed outsiders.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^
Really?....what M product lately were they uninformed about?
August 11th, 2015 at 8:08 PM ^
I hope he is not getting paid a whole heck of a lot, because WD, myself, and others on this board could have come up with a better analysis than that.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:13 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:15 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:15 PM ^
Great analysis /s
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August 11th, 2015 at 8:18 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:18 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:33 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:49 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 8:35 PM ^
if any of these so called experts knew as much as they pretend to, im quite sure they would be cleaning up in vegas each year not writing for a worthless sports outlet.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:37 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^
1) Harbaugh vs Carroll, round 1
2) Peppers as a roaming where-will-he-appear-next nickel could be the key to stopping their offense