SI's Ellis Predicts Records for New Head Coaches (Harbaugh predicted 6-6)
I think it's on the low half of 1st standard deviation events, and it's likely done to generate a reaction from a large and active fanbase.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^
Fuck Ellis.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:51 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 8:47 PM ^
probably the very bottom of our likely record this year.
I'm actually very optimistic. I can see us being competitive in every game this year. So much hinges on two things - our QB and OL. If our QB and OL are decent and we avoid silly turnovers and sacks, we should have a good year. And I am confident that Harbaugh and his staff have an approach that will produce at least a decent QB and OL. So the sky's the limit. But it's hard to say whether we will win or lose close games in Harbaugh's first year. So we might lose a few games but Michigan football should be fun to watch every Saturday.
August 11th, 2015 at 8:51 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 8:58 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^
We have not won a big road game since ND in 2010. I think it's time (at Utah or PSU) to put an end to that.
August 11th, 2015 at 9:00 PM ^
I'd bet the farm that Harbaugh delivers AT LEAST 7 wins!
August 11th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 9:45 PM ^
"moran" (sic) is a different term
August 11th, 2015 at 9:07 PM ^
This should give the players more incentive to prove people wrong. I am looking for one that says we are going to finish 5-7. It will be a perfect poster for the locker room.
August 11th, 2015 at 9:08 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:10 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^
Eh. This team went 5-7 last year and could have gone 3-9 (PSU, NW) or 7-5 (Rutgers, Maryland) or anything between. 6-6 is certainly a possibility, but I consider it the lower end of likelihood (my "window" is 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4) so I would pick it if I were trying to be provocative. I can't speak to Mr Ellis' motivations.
August 11th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
[edit: whatt are sprecial teams? Sorry for the mistaken double post].
Whenever you are replacing a punter and a field goal kicker, it is hard to say that special teams will be better.
I get what you are saying. We now have a top shelf special teams coach, and will always see 11 guys on the field, better punt formations, etc.
O'Neil will very likely be a fine punter to repalce Hagarup. Still, I want to see some field goals kicked before I conclude that our special teams will be better.
With the question marks on offense, even if the rest of the special teams play is better, having a shaky field goal kicker could cost a couple of games. It means locsing close games. And it means a head coach who has to go for it on 4th a 6 at the 32 lard line.
August 11th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
Whenever you are replacing a punter and a field goal kicker, it is hard to say that special teams will be better.
I get what you are saying. We now have a top shelf special teams coach, and will always see 11 guys on the field, better punt formations, etc.
O'Neil will very likely be a fine punter to repalce Hagarup. Still, I want to see some field goals kicked before I conclude that our special teams will be better.
With the question marks on offense, even if the rest of the special teams play is better, having a shaky field goal kicker could cost a couple of games. It means locsing close games. And it means a head coach who has to go for it on 4th a 6 at the 32 lard line.
August 12th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:24 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
the writer is on our side, he just wants to make Harbaugh look all the better at the end of the season...
August 11th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^
Not expecting any miracles next year, but I think 8-4, maybe 9-3 is very reasonable.
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August 11th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^
Is it really that unreasonable?
Last year's oline was pure shit.
What has Michigan done against tOSU and Moo U lately?
Michigan has lots of ??? at DB, RB, and QB -- nobody distanced themselves from the pack in spring camp either.
6-6 could very well be Michigan's record this year -- better than JH's first at Stanford. Dude can clearly coach but is it enough to be able to take over all this raw and undeveloped talent?!
August 11th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
Looking at this kid's predictions he almost looks like he took the Vegas over/under and subtracted 1 on many of them.
Predictions are dumb not sure why anyone would want to stick their neck out like that.
August 11th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^
8-4 or 9-3 seems much more likely that 6-6.
Still, a disappointing record in Harbaugh's first rebuilding year would not be uprecedented...
Saban's first year at Alabama: 7-6.
Pete Carrol's first year at USC: 6-6.
Strong's first year at Texas: 6-7.
Saban and Carroll got in going in year 2. Strong is probably a very good coach, but not a good as Harbaugh.
August 11th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^
and I would take $10K on the over. Assuming push is 6-6, I think my money would be safe. What a dope.
August 11th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^
Most of the national, uninformed media is a little confused about the situation at Michigan. They see Harbaugh coming in and the failed past with Hoke and believe that this is a total rebuild. However, we all know here that there is a plethora of talent on this roster. Harbaugh and his excellent staff will really surprise these people. 10-3 with a bowl victory. The defense will be excellent, the offense will be functional, special teams will no longer be a severe liability, and a very motivated and intense team will be taking out a lot of past frustrations on this years' opponents.
August 11th, 2015 at 11:17 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^
August 11th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^
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August 11th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^
Wins don't just happen, people. I can't believe that everybody hasn't learned this over the last 7 years. Everybody seems to think it's unfathomable that Michigan could lose to Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland, or Minnesota. We barely escaped Northwestern, lost to Rutgers, lost to Maryland, and got shredded by Minnesota last year at home, but despite this people seem to think that there is no way it happens this year.
8/9 wins was the standard under Carr, and Moeller but you all seem to think we're right back where we were in the 90s despite the lack of returning talent on offense. If Michigan wins 8 or 9, that is a great first year under a new coach and shouldn't be considered the floor for this year. They're missing some big pieces and are going to be adjusting to new schemes. The media isn't trolling you. You just need to take off your maize glasses and realize that there are plenty of games that could end up in the loss column.
August 12th, 2015 at 7:21 AM ^
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August 12th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
Putting 8 wins as the floor is either incredibly pompous or you and I are considering the "floor" as different things.
August 12th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^
August 12th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
Michigan didn't play Wisconsin last year either so that doesn't factor into the schedule being "easier" at all.
If you're saying that Michigan could have been 7-5 last year if a couple of those games go just a little differently, well, they also won 2 games by less than a touchdown so you could just as easily say that they could have been 3-9.
6 to 8 wins is what I see as being in the scope of reasonable expectations with 8 falling into the realm of a good season. 7 is par. 6 likely means that they couldn't find their offense, which given the lack of big playmakers, could happen.
August 12th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
except for the continually discussed QB question. It's the lack of experience in a stable established offense. The offensive line has to play as a unit at speed against defenses that are used to selling out to penetration. Until the Oline can at least consistently prevent opponents getting into the back field and open holes with some frequency, opponents are going to bring it on every down. Admittedly a better passing game that burns them for selling out would help slow the defense down, but that requires solid pass blocking. It's a brand new offense and the coaches have only a very few weeks to get those guys up to speed to play a serious opponent away in the opener.
Comments on media day from the defensive players indicate that the defense is at least similar to last season, although they also talk about it being different in technique and style etc. So it's unclear how similar it really is. Still we can hope that prior defensive experience transfers to this season.
Momentum is a strange beast. Beat Utah, sweep the OOC portion of the season and man the lights will be looking bright. Lose to Utah stumble against BYU and the attitude at the start of the conference portion of the season has a whole different frame. The players need proof that they can win tough games, especially tough away games.
Then there is luck. Luck played a big part in the results in 2011. Yes Mattison rejuvenating the defense by midseason was critical, but the TO margin was huge too. I'd like to believe that our 2015 team will be able to win despite bad breaks, calls, and bounces, but I know that in close games luck is going to be disproportionately important.
So while my heart wants 15-0, and I'll hold on to that dream as long as it's mathematically possible, my head says 7-5 or 8-4 is likely, with 6-6 or 10-2 about equally possible. With a new coach, no matter how gifted, new schemes all around, and a tough OOC schedule, 6-6 may be unlikely but it's not implausible.
Go Blue win it all!
August 11th, 2015 at 11:51 PM ^
August 12th, 2015 at 12:38 AM ^
August 12th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
I feel like moving to a spread punt scheme has to be worth at least 2 wins all by itself, just from the improved field position.
August 12th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
I am not the type of fan that thinks we will run the table or win 10-11 games but I dont see 6-6. I see more like 8-4 with one of those wins against MSU or OSU.
Hail,