Projecting Kevin Hogan as a Big 10 QB
TL; DR - Kevn Hogan? Yes please.
I have neither a cart nor a horse ... but do have some free time as I no longer have to do CC diaries, so I thought I'd talk some Kevin Hogan. Yesterday a thread popped up on a potential transfer of Hogan who is Stanford's QB. As a 5th year senior he would not have to sit out, and as a Harbaugh recruit the relationship is obvious, as is the need. The gist of the article is David Shaw is so conservative and run oriented he makes Mike Debord's Michigan offenses look progressive. And Hogan - a potential mid round NFL draft pick - is balking against that.
So I thought how Kevin Hogan would stack up in the Big 10 vs the Pac 12. Now we should preface this analysis with the fact the Big 10 QB sitution is ludicrously bad. It's awful, pathetic, sad, wimpy, crappy, stinky. Gary Nova of Rutgers is statistically the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 - if you only watched him vs UM you'd believe that; if you watched him vs every other team you'd LOL but again, on paper, it's true. With Hackenberg in a Devin Gardner state of PTSD in 2014, behind an OL that looked like Michigan 2013, and Devin being a shell of him former self there were basically 2 good QBs in the league - anyone from Barrett down to the 8th string waterboy at OSU, and Cook at MSU.
Which brings up an interesting comparison - Hogan and Cook are pretty similar statistically except in the completion % category. But not year on year - as Hogan took a step back in 2014 while Cook took a step forward. So without many good choices in the Big 10 to compare him to the best I can parallel him to in 2014 was Connor Cook of 2013. While Hogan of 2013 was more like Cook of 2014 (again excluding completion %). Hogan is also going to give you a bit more on the ground as he rushes for about 300 yards (net of sacks) a year.
QBR | Comp % | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Sack | |
2014 Hogan | 66.7 | 65.9 | 2792 | 7.9 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
2013 Cook | 68.9 | 58.7 | 2755 | 7.3 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
QBR | Comp % | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Sack | |
2013 Hogan | 80.5 | 61 | 2630 | 8.9 | 20 | 10 | 14 |
2014 Cook | 77.5 | 58.2 | 2900 | 9 | 22 | 6 | 10 |
Cook benefited from (sigh) excellent pass protection; better than Hogan's. And he turns the ball over less. But throws with less accuracy. But they are in the same neighborhoods of each other. You'd hope with the QB whisperer here, Hogan would return at least to his 2013 form.
Now let's look at how his stats compare in the Pac 12 vs the Big 10. Again, the caveat here is the Big 10 is a graveyard of QBs whereas a 3000 yard passer who completes 63% of his passes in the Pac 12 just falls off a tree.
2014 | Pac 12 | Big 10 | ||
Stats | Rank | Rank | Behind | |
Pass Completions | 232 | 9 | 2 | Hackenberg |
Pass Attempts | 352 | 9 | 4 | Hack, Siemian, Brown |
Completion % | 65.9 | 6 | 1 | |
Pass Yards | 2792 | 9 | 5 | Hack, Cook, Nova, Barrett |
Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 4 | 4 | Barrett, Cook, Nova |
TD | 19 | 9 | 5 | Barrett, Cook, Nova, Armstrong |
INT | 8 | T3 | T9 | Just about everyone not named Cook |
Efficiency Rating | 145.8 | 5 | 3 | Barrett, Cook |
Again let me reiterate the Big 10 QB situation is complete garbage (which is why Big 10 defenses look so damn awesome statistically). The Pac 12 has guys 90% of non Pac 12 fans have never heard of such as Sefo Liufau of CO and Jared Goff of Cal who throw for 3000+ yards and 65%+ completion % and would immediately be the best QB (on paper) in the Big 10. And I am not even discussing the video game #s that Washington State's QB puts up since Mike Leach doesnt know what a RB is. So Hogan in comparison looks below average in their conference.
But if we project Hogan to the Big 10 he'd essentially immediately be the 4th best QB behind any of the 19 guys who could start for Urban Meyer and thrive, Cook, and one assumes a Hackenberg who is playing for early entry status in 2015. All those guys are projected 1st round draft picks. Is he going to tear the league apart ala Drew Brees or (for you older folks) Chuck Long? No. But he'd be an experienced, efficient, known quantity who brings stability to the most unknown part of the team. You plug this kind of QB in to 2014's OSU game and UM has a great chance to win even with the LOL coaching.
Other details - Hogan is from D.C. so a transfer to Michigan would bring him closer to his parents at least for a year, give him a chance to play in cold weather as he prepares for the NFL, and reuinites him with you know who. His major is "Science, Tech, and Society" - that is broad enough that I am sure he could find a grad program that fits that Stanford does not offer.
January 1st, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
or no QB can succeed. The line looked a little like this last year:
January 1st, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
For the first time in 3 years I am not that worried about the OL - I see the floor as average. That doesn't mean it will be great but we have a floor of average now. You bring back 5 starters + Magnuson. Your LT goes from fresh faced freshman to a year in the S&C program and on is way to becoming All Conference down the road. You have multiple upperclassmen starting and a guy like Magnuson can now push Braden. And you have guys who sat for multiple years like Kugler and Dawson pushing from behind, not to mention I assume Bosch.
And other the OSU game the pass protect was generally "ok" in the last 4 games of last year. There were signs of improvement with the caveat of Big Teeeeeeen defenses. But guess what - they play Big 10 defenses 75% of the year. And excluding MSU and OSU (and Minn) most we face suck.
My top worries in 2015 move from OL to: QB, WR, DE, and 2nd S next to Wilson.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
...because we have better coaching and a new scheme.
But returning crap doesn't all of a sudden mean it'll turn to gold. Just doesn't work like that and we see it all the time at other positions, OL is no different.
The part that I DO like is that individually we weren't that bad the past couple of years. I mean 2 years ago we had a 1st and 3rd round draft pick, last year, we were pretty good individually.
The problem has always been chemistry and playing as a unit. 4 guys doing one thing and 1 guy doing something totally different.
That seems correctable. So we'll see. But I'm not just giving them an automatic +5 improvement points like the video games.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
"Returning crap" is not fair to say. The production with Drake Johnson in the game showed the progress that the line made over the year. They ran the ball essentially at will against Ohio State, something Wisconsin couldn't even pretend to do a week later. If you can get a QB to get rid of the ball in a reasonable amount of time this offensive line would've looked just fine last year in pass protection.
January 1st, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
far fewer sacks and negative plays, and obvious even to the naked eye in the running game. They deserve credit, and will be even better next year. The OL may even be one of the strengths next year, since almost everyone returns.
January 1st, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
I'd be fine if Hogan came here and played because he would absolutely be the best QB on this team, but I guess I just caught a couple of his bad games (@ND, @Arizona St., Utah) on TV because what I saw a guy who dinks and dunks his way down the field, so his completion percentage is high but it also felt a bit misleading. Admittedly his 2013 was better, though he had 10 TDs in the first 4 weeks and then 10 (including 5 against a terrible Cal team) the rest of the way, and you'd hope he'd get back there, but his swings in performance are a little extreme.
Honestly, I wouldn't complain if he came, but I'm down on 2015 being some amazing year regardless, and so I'm not against Michigan seeing what they have with the guys on the roster and going from there. Harbaugh seems capable of pulling out good performances from a variety of QBs, and 2 years of Morris or 4 from Sepight or Malzone are appealing to me as much as one year of Hogan.
January 1st, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
he could bring is mindset he possesses. Since he was recruited by Harbaugh, he would understand the culture that Harbaugh wants to instill. The value of that contribution alone would be invaluable since none of the senior leadership was part of the winning tradition that Michigan had.
Plus a Stanford degree and Master's degree from Michigan would be incredible for the young man. . .
January 1st, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
Hogan is never played for Harbaugh. You are assuming that the culture Shaw promotes is the same as the culture that Harbaugh promotes.
For all we know, adapting to Harbaugh and new team mates could be a big adjustment for Hogan.
The one advanatge that Hogan does have over our current QB's is in-game experience.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
NC State coaches wanted Wilson to focus on football. Wilson wanted to play pro baseball in the summer. That led to a parting of the ways. Plus, as Yogi Berra would say, Russell Wilson wasn't Russell Wilson at that time, otherwise they would have kept him.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
In Detroit? yes.
At Iowa? no.
Dude was a 1st round draft choice for a reason. He went to a franchise that kills QBs.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
the very first pass he threw for the lions?
touchdown!
unfortunately it was downhill from there.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
Long was the Heisman runner-up in 1985. He also QB'd the Iowa team that gave Michigan its only loss that year. I wouldn't say that Long sucked.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
I think this is a very valid point. The "potential" Hogan transfer would be huge in terms of instant impact but even more so in order to allow Shane to get that extra year under his belt with JH and have 2 years of eligibility left. Is this something that has been done before? RS a player in his 3rd year with a program for non-medical reasons?
January 1st, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
A player can red shirt at any time during their college career. The rule is that a college athlete has five years to complete four years of eligibility. Most athletes red shirt in their freshman year to learn the system and to let their bodies mature.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
But it isn't going to happen. Has there even been a QB that did this?
January 1st, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
Those aren't mutually exclusive. Having the "one year rental" allows our recruits to develop and play in Harbaugh's new system.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
So wait, the question is (against the backdrop of our questionable QB situation and coaching transition, mind you), whether we should use a 1-year scholarship to add a 5th year senior QB to our depth chart who went 25-8 as a starter in the Pac 12?
January 1st, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
Blake Sims waited 4 years to be the starter at Bama.
He was going into his RS Senior season, the team was his, Nick Saban brings in a transfer Jacob Coker from FSU. He was supposed to be Saban's guy and the starter.
BLAKE SIMS WENT OUT AND WON THE JOB!
Nothing was handed. He didn't even officially become the starter until the 4th game of the season.
Now look at Bama. Now look at Sims. He has had one of the best years in Alabama QB history.
...no one should ever worry about competition in sports, not at this level.
Go earn your spot, earn your playing time, go meet the expectation for the position. It's as simple as that.
I don't care if you're Shane Morris, Wilton Speight, Alex Malzone, Kevin Hogan, Brian Cleary or anyone else. Go win the job.
January 1st, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
I agree 100% Yost, but I'm missing where you think anyone on this board is saying the job belongs to X or Y. Nobody thinks that. We will have a comptetition and the best guy will play. Period.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
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January 1st, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
If we do get Hogan could Morris be in line for a RS? I think he would have greatly benefited from a redshirt during his freshman season... One next season might be even better for him under JH and the rest of the coaching staff.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Morris redshirting his junior year? How would that work exactly?
January 1st, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
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January 1st, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
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January 3rd, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^
That's not how it works. He'd have to either be injurued or successfully fake an injury, like Gardner's "back cramp" thing.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
BUT IT MIGHT HURT SHANE'S FEELINGS SINCE BEING MICHIGAN'S QB IS HIS BIRTHRIGHT!!
January 1st, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
No. It was too late in the year.
January 1st, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^
I hope it's more useful than your Kevin Sumlin circa 2 years ago CC.
On that note, will you also be projecting Jake Loker's potential in the Big10?
I kid because I care.
January 1st, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
Good analysis and post ....but did Hogan actually say or indicate he's thinking about a transfer in general? Any legit sources indicating he might? If not, we're def putting the cart before the horse on this one if he hasn't. He would be a coup and an awesome boost to our OL. It would be great exposure for Hogan but does he want to leave?
I think a transfer would be a great option but at this point, I think most of those QBs out there who actually want to transfer are either 1.) not worth our time for various reasons or 2.) Would never consider Michigan for various reasons of their own
January 1st, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
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January 1st, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
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January 1st, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^
January 1st, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
I know, that's exactly what I'm trying to figure out. Seems to be a lot of chatter with no rumors or sources that I can pin down
January 1st, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^