Angelique S. Chengelis has Michigan 10-2
link:
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140501/SPORTS0201/305010001/Angeli…
I tend to agree, however the ND and Northwestern games need to be mistake free to win on the road. We could just as easily lose those two.
Last year's game ended up 42-41, so are you predicting a tie?
Picking Michigan to beat everyone except OSU and MSU is DIFFERENT than picking them to go 10-2. For Example, If I thought Michigan had a 65% chance to win each game, I'd still pick them on a game-by-game basis but then overall I'd expect them to go 8-4. You see how probabilities work?
I'm sure if you forced Angelique to set probabilities and then did the math, she'd be more at 9-3 or even 8-4. That's just not how the media has ever done predictions because its easier to think in black and white (either X is true or Y is true, the truth is usually in between).
A correct method for picking an overall record is to use the Mathelete's technique.
But you do realize that if you do that, you don't set the MSU or OSU games to 0%, right? It cuts both ways.
There's a difference between binomial distribution and predicting a set of outcomes. You can make the math work out such that you can predict a team to go 10-2 with three predicted losses (9 games at 99% win probability + 3 games at 33% win probability). Which is fine (KenPom does that). But if someone says "Michigan will beat everyone but ND, MSU, and OSU," that DOES equal a 9-3 record.
Yes, I do understand that the MSU and OSU games would not be 0%. Maybe 25% for each of them.
But the point is that if you think we're favored in 10 games of 12, there is a lot more downside in games where we're favored but may lose anyways (see Akron, UCONN and PSU last season) than there is upside in games we're undogs in but may pull out a win. There are 10 opportunities to underperform vs. 2 to overperform.
My only point is that the thread title is misleading, because no where in the article does it state that a 10-2 record is being predicted. All that we learn from the article is who is favored in the writer's mind on a game by game basis. If you did the correct math, this could actually be anything from 5-7 (assuming 50.1% in each game she has us winning, 0% in others) to 11-1 (assume 100% in the games she has us winning and 49.9% in the other 2).
Any reasonable math mapping her statements (predicting close wins against ND, PSU, IU) to probabilities nets out with 8-4 or 9-3.
"FINAL RECORD: 10-2." On the OH slide. I get what you're saying, and likely Angelique would too, but the article does say 10-2.
Aren't you an attorney? What are you doing at the Math table?
/Collects things, eats lunch in closet.
I think the whole season rests on how well the O-line comes together. The defense is just loaded with talent. I just have a sneaky suspicion they will be elite this year. We have a 5th year senior QB leading the offense. There are certainly hard games on the schedule but I think MSU takes a step back. They lost a lot on defense from last year. Losing space eater D-tackles can't be understated. Those guys kept the LB's clean all season long which contributed to their success. I think 10-2 would be a good season, but I really just want to see the team take steps forward. There is just too much talent for Michigan to field a mediocre team.
I think our D definitely has the potential to be elite, but all of that determination is going to come down on the D line. If we're getting pressure on the QB and can eat enough space that our LBs can shut down the run game up the middle, we're not gonna give up more than a TD or two per game.
will prevent us from losing 6 or 7 games. May be the O line will come around during the 2nd half of the season?
2014 is not going to be about winning the division or the Big Ten or even beating rivals (although any of these would be nice). 2014 will be about getting this program back on it's feet, establish a winning and physical way and getting rid of the shit storm of negativity that surrounds it. That's all I want to see.
Until we show competence on the road, players and coaches, we will be a 7-8 win program. We will need to have a top 3 D in the B1G.
House money: 10-2
My money: 8-4
Until we improve our fundamentals and develop a couple of more impact players (offensive and defensive) it is 8-4 and second tier bowl games.
I really don't see it. At this point, I have no reason to believe the team will be any better than last season. I desperately want to be terribly wrong, but I am not going to lie and convince myself that we'll have 10+ wins like I do every other off season.
Still hoping...
Or, it is the difference between being realistic and living in fantasy land.
My prediction 15-0, national champs bitches
Michigan will have to win 2 of the three big road games against ND, MSU and OSU to go 10-2. You know they will lose a close game to a middling team like PSU or NU. The worse case would be 6 wins but that would be difficult to do unless the OL turns out to be a real tire fire! Realist 8-4 with 9-3 or 7-5 possible.
2-10 with wins over MSU and OSU and our recruiting goes completely down the toilet.
10-2 with losses to MSU and OSU and we can pull in a heck of a class in 2015 and 2016.
2013 went 13-1
Well, that is the expectation at Michigan at a minimum.
Considering that I'm pretty bearish on this upcoming season (hoping for 8 wins, please don't let there be a second HORROR) you would think I'd be ecstatic if we went 10-2.
But I know that losing to Sparty and Ohio would really eat at me all winter, spring and summer long. The sad part is I will probably not be satisfied unless we beat 2 of our 3 rivals, and that's more important to me than the overall record this season (Most important is no more HORRORs)
Which of these teams we play on the road will be ranked? Looks like 3.
9-3 with PSU and NW being a tossup.
There is a lot of talent on the team. The issue is whether the coaches can get them to play up to the level of their potential.
As Mgo-Bo wrote, "Aanything is possible in college football."
I want to be part of the self-loathing!!! Let's grumble and complain about how disappointed we were with last year. Let's be a part of the fickle fan crowd!!
there is as much optimistic optimism as there is pessimistic pessimism on this thread. I suspect one can rationalize either--and without the latter being considered fickle or self-loathing. What would be your perjoratives for those who may be unrealistically optimistic?
It makes sense to be pessimistic. It's emotional self-defense 101:
1. Higher upside if things turn out well.
2. Less disappointment if things go poorly because "you knew it"
3. Easier to criticize than to support people.
Etc.
People are mostly here to bitch and moan. It's because they have a sad face and don't want to be hurt again.
that's an easy 10-2. I have a feeling they'll screw up at least one other game. Maybe 9-3.
It still won't win the Big Ten Championship, and another loss to OSU and MSU, Hoke's ass should still be on the hot seat in this case.
There's never a great way to do this in May when you don't have any data for the season, of course, but if we wanted to take the Sagarin ratings from this past season and do a little math for the sake of argument, we would possibly be 9-3 if we were to win all games in which the hypothetical margin was positive.
As all wins are not equally likely, consider that the calculated margins for five of those game are between 0 and 10 - Utah (0.78), Minnesota (7.21), Penn State (5.8), Indiana (7.21) and Northwestern (2.15). Rutgers, Maryland and Appalachian State are left as higer confidence wins based on last year's data.
The losses in this hypothetical? Notre Dame (-7.57), Michigan State (-18.53) and OSU (-14.34).
Keep in mind that this is only so useful as it is based on 2013 data and anything could happen this year. I simply find the exercise interesting regardless.
Did you see anything in 2006 that would lead you to believe that the 2007 season would start with the Horror and one of the worst home losses in Michigan history?
The door swings both ways, never forget that!
I do not think we will go 10-2. However, we will be closer to that mark than 2-10. BRIGHT SIDE!
Why do we never include the bowl game in our win/loss projections? Clearly anything over 500 (and nobody so far is THAT pessimistic) results in a bowl game yet none of us (me included) ever include the bowl game results in our annual projections.
Why is that?
I view it as more of a "reward" at the end of the season instead of projecting it within how we do in a season. Besides, a 10-2 record will give you anything from a BCS Bowl down to 3 other possible bowls depening on many factors. Just too hard to predict.
However, I'd say 10-2 gets Michigan to a hypothetical Fiesta Bowl matchup where they lose to UCLA.
The article was only speaking about the known schedule. May predictions are hard enough when you know when, where and who. Not knowing what bowl and what opponent is even tougher.
Having said that, I've seen a lot of posts (including mine) where there'll be a discussion of "how many wins do you need?" and those benefit from inclusion of BTCG and Bowl predictions/discussions.
Just...lol.
I wish...but wow man.
9 and freaking 3. (8-4 worst case).
Now please, you are unfortunately trespassing upon my front terrace premises (translation: get off my lawn!)
But O depends on the quality of last year's experience on the line. There are a decent number of guys coming back with a lot of plays under their belts. Not all of them will be starters, but they will all be involved. The question is, how useful is experience playing on such a bad line? Should be extremely useful, but with the change in coordinators, I'm just not sure.
I think it more likely that 10-2 would come with one win against either MSU or OSU, but also one close loss to somebody else, but not ND -- you don't get to 10-2 after losing to them.
It makes me want to puke that the general consensus is that the OSU and MSU games can be written off in May. And I don't fault anyone who feels that way, that's pretty much how it looks to me, too. I'm not saying Hoke doesn't deserve another chance, but anyone saying he shouldn't even be on the hot seat needs to pause and really give a thought to that point: it is considered a foregone conclusion that Michigan will not beat either OSU or MSU this year, which would drop Brady Hoke's record against them to 2-6. At what point is there SOME accountability?