PAC12 Championship was an opportunity for USC to jump in seeding and avoid Georgia
Haven't seen a thread about it and unable to dig into all the threads to see if this was already discussed.
Pre championship games, there was some discussion about how the PAC12 Championship was all downside for USC - winning doesn't change anything, but losing would be punishing them for playing an extra game while OSU got to sit at home and do nothing.
But the PAC12 championship game was also an opportunity to improve their position - I'm a homer, but I think most teams would rather face Michigan in the playoff than Georgia. And imagine if USC won, and all the other teams lost - isn't there a good chance USC would have jumped up to 1 (everyone has same numerical record, USC the only one with a Conference Championship), and then even gotten to face TCU (which I assume everyone thinks is easier than Georgia or Michigan).
Pretty unlikely yes, but the PAC12 championship game offered that opportunity to improve their seeding - maybe not worth the chance of losing and dropping out, but not worthless either.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
Welcome to College Football for Dummies!
December 4th, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
Haven't seen a thread about it and unable to dig into all the threads to see if this was already discussed.
Because USC was already #4 and would have been #4 if they won.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
You don't think USC would have jumped 12-1 TCU?
December 4th, 2022 at 9:31 PM ^
By what objective measure would they have?
TCU went undefeated over their schedule -- which was 27 places higher than USC's.
USC did not.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^
At the risk of getting eviscerated over the Internet...
In this (totally pointless) hypothetical, TCU is not undefeated. TCU has a loss. Actually, they have a loss in real life! But in the alternate universe USC also only has 1 loss, and has ended the year as their conference champion (unlike TCU) which I believe the committee has said they definitely take into account.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
TCU is not undefeated.
That's odd... I just checked online and as I wrote, that website shows TCU went 12-0 over their schedule.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
Snark, but I just checked and the version I see shows TCU went 12-1 over their games
December 5th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Conference championship game is not a part of the season schedule. So for the 3rd time TCU went 12-0 over their schedule.
USC did not.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:37 PM ^
The link you included literally has a red "L" included on their game results. Which you already know. Because you already know they lost their last game and are 12-1.
You're trying to score points on some kind of semantics? Why? It has nothing to do with the debate. Obviously the conference championship outcomes are factored in to the final CFP rankings, which you also already know.
My apologies. I mistook you for someone who was actually trying to make a serious argument.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
The link you included literally has a red "L" included on their game results
Which was the CCG.
You're trying to score points on some kind of semantics? Why? It has nothing to do with the debate.
Not at all and your reading comprehension sucks.
I said TCU went 12-0 over their schedule. <-- meaning their season. That's not semantics. That's a clear and complete point. CCGs are not part of the "season" schedule.
USC did not. They lost to Utah on 15 October... during the season.
My apologies. I mistook you for someone who was actually trying to make a serious argument.
And apparently the CFP uses this logic by not punishing TCU for their CCG loss.
December 6th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
TCU and OSU both have one loss. TCU has an extra win. USC has 2 losses. None of them are conference champions. There was no one to jump TCU.
Obviously conference championship games count and are considered since USC was punished for losing it.
But if USC was also 12-1 and a conference champion, they could have jumped TCU. That seems plausible if not probable. Not sure why you won’t acknowledge that.
You’ve been completely disingenuous in this whole exchange.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:21 PM ^
Now do this hypothetical: what if Oregon beat Georgia back in September?
December 4th, 2022 at 9:24 PM ^
All else the same? Looks to me it would just be Michigan/Georgia flipped, as I'm sure they'd put 12-1 Georgia ahead of TCU and OSU.
Maybe the committee would do the right thing and flip TCU/OSU too to avoid the 1st round rematch, which then just makes it the same games as we actually have?
December 4th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
I think that definitely changes the argument about PAC 12 perception.
Whether that hypothetical gives USC more cachet is doubtful considering USC didn't have the chance to play OU this season.
December 5th, 2022 at 4:55 AM ^
Another hypothetical - what if Michigan State beats Indiana rather than losing in 2OT. They'd be playing Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
Program win.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
I love to ponder “what-ifs” myself, its a type of critical thinking. some people may think its dumb and a waste of time, maybe it is, or maybe its way ahead of everybody else (in terms of evaluating the motivation in playing a conference championship). Probably not but you do you.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
some people may think its dumb and a waste of time
It's got to be plausible to warrant further discussion. That's why OP is getting some pushback. It's not that great of a post and self-admittedly driven by bias in the first place.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:51 PM ^
Most people didnt think it was plausible for michigan to beat osu last year, same thing this year….its been a crazy season, anything can happen, scenarios the OP suggested may not be relevant right now but im sure conferences will evaluate championship games and risk/reward with greater understanding after USCs loss. Just my take…
December 4th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
Was a great opportunity for USC to not shit the bed. But shit it they did.
Embarrasing...
December 4th, 2022 at 9:25 PM ^
I felt the PAC 12 wouldn't have a chance of rising even with a USC win. The committee painted itself in a corner and gave hope to Alabama and Tennessee when there really was none to be had. USC is the Tennessee of the PAC 12. Offense off the charts with no defense to be found.
The Game was set up as an elimination playoff for the B1G. And Michigan wasn't going to get the same shot that Ohio State got if it had lost to the Buckeyes in Columbus. That's why Alabama was there hanging around. The committee could have blown off Michigan's one convincing win over Penn State because OSU beat the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley.
The committee wanted to reward the SEC but its teams wouldn't cooperate. And Saban's last minute pep talk made no difference looking at the math and past precedent. You can't put in a team with two losses regardless of whether on any given Saturday the Tide might be favored against another team or that past is always prologue, reputation trumps every other metric.
That's like arguing Ohio State would be favored in any other matchup except Georgia because regardless of how the Buckeyes play defensively, their reputation precedes actual performance. So, in the end, the committee got it right --under the circumstances.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:42 PM ^
And Saban's last minute pep talk
Was cringe-worthy for advocating taking into account several factors which are not generally considered in the beauty contest of comparing college football teams.
But I would have put Bama in over ohio in a second.
Bama lost two games:
- On the road
- In the SEC
- Both on the last play of the game
- Both by a grand total of 4 points.
Ohio got destroyed at home.
Bama is the hotter chick in that scenario.
If that was Michigan's resume... this fanbase is screaming bloody murder for Michigan in the playoff.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:25 PM ^
Well now USC can take the opportunity to get a defense in the off-season.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
Only 1 team in the playoff had an extra week of rest and avoided the chance for on field injuries this weekend.
The team that lost their final home game by 22 points, the same game they had been prepping and talking about all year….THE Backdoor Buckeyes
December 4th, 2022 at 10:02 PM ^
There was virtually no chance USC would have jumped any of the other top-3 teams. I guess maybe if TCU had gotten blown out by 30 and USC had won by 30 you might have had an argument, but that's so outside the reasonableness bands it isn't worth considering.
Instead, USC had to play an extra game against a top-10 team for the chance to keep their spot while a team that had gotten blown out by 22 at home was sitting around, waiting for them to stumble. It was all downside for USC with basically no upside; hell, if they had won the game but gotten Williams hurt then they're still suffering.
I don't think conference championship games should matter for playoff seeding. They just shouldn't - it's a bonus game some teams play that can invalidate a full regular season. If the committee thought USC was better than OSU last weekend then nothing OSU did this week sitting on their asses changes that and all USC showed was they weren't great defensively, something we've known since the first week of the season.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:16 PM ^
1-loss USC had no chance of jumping 1-loss TCU? USC being a conference champ unlike TCU? I think that was on the table without huge blowouts being necessary.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:14 PM ^
I had a thought earlier today. I chose not to start a thread, but since you did:
All you clowns who were rooting for everyone and their mother to lose got your wish. Tennessee, TCU, LSU, Clemson, USC. Yep, the path is cleared for us to back into the playoffs with a loss to Ohio State. It actually would have happened. GOOD JOB EVERYONE!
Of course your rooting interests had no actual bearing on any of this, so whatever.
I will bring this up again in the Festivus thread.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^
I was definitely rooting for everyone else to lose just to give us a chance to back into it. And I'm totally ok with OSU backing into it instead.
At least until the result of the playoffs, will revisit those feelings later pending the results.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:18 PM ^
So for the big12, big10, sec, acc, and pac12 games there could be timeline splits for win, win closely, lose closely, and lose for the better teams. Could we please get threads started for the 4^5-1 timelines in the multiverse that we did not experience? 1023 versions of me want to know.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:22 PM ^
It was also an opportunity to prove they had safety play that is better than Ohio State. Unfortunately they failed at even that modest test. USC is barely a football team, it's more like a QB, a few killer wideouts and a bunch of kids that still want to play 7 on 7.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:52 PM ^
you know what you might be onto something
something IMPORTANT
December 4th, 2022 at 11:00 PM ^
This is like debating whether Archduke Franz Ferdinand will make a good Emperor on June 29th 1914.
No matter how good the argument, it's still yesterday's discussion and yesterday's arguments of no importance or merit today or tomorrow.
December 5th, 2022 at 12:07 AM ^
Best thing USC ever did right here... with the Michigan band. This was before the 2004 Rose Bowl and still gives me chills hearing it.
December 5th, 2022 at 2:01 AM ^
It was pretty simple for USC.. win and you’re in.
December 5th, 2022 at 4:52 AM ^
Problem with this is this was never a good opportunity for them.
They had to go against Utah, the only team that beat them. Lose, and you're out which was a very good possibility (at least 40% and is what ended up happening).
Your scenario assumes Georgia, Michigan, and TCU all lose. Even if we assume all of them had just a 50% of winning (which is a very bad assumption) that's still only a 12.5% chance of their dream scenario playing out.
More realistically, the best hope for them was they win and TCU loses and then maybe they move up to #3 to get Michigan who might be the easier opponent.
Hindsight is 20/20 but I'll bet USC wishes they had a "COVID" outbreak that led to them having to cancel the game because there was very, very little advantage to playing in that game.