Michigan stays 3rd in SP+
Now just 2.3 points behind OSU, meaning The Game will likely be a 5-6 pt spread.
The offense is down to 20th but the D is up to 3rd. Not what most of us expected preseason!
November 13th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
Thank you for this!!
I’m not an ESPN+ guy, and the shift-to-proprietary for S&P+ has been borderline-tragic for my CFB wonkiness.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
I'm still a little skeptical about our D ratings. We have played some wretched offenses who have not put full-game pressure on our D.
In fairness to us, I am also skeptical about OUS's D ratings too. They have played the same pathetic offenses we have. Ohio State does NOT have the 5th best defense in the country.
But it's all self-solving I guess. We won't have that issue in 2 weeks. The OSU game will empirically reveal how good or not good our D is (and theirs too).
November 13th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
Well, Bill is trying to account for that.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
Sure, but it can still be hard to extrapolate. If you extrapolated RR offenses from September, you would not expect them to struggle mightily against good Ds like they usually did.
November 13th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
It's opponent adjusted and overall I almost always find myself defending SP+ against dumb criticisms, but I do definitely think you can't really extrapolate very well from facing bad teams to very good ones. Case in point, the 2018 game where we were murdered by crossing routes. OSU and maybe a couple other teams were the only ones who could exploit Michigan like that because they had 4, 5 guys who could all outrun Watson. Don Brown's defenses overall were ones that usually killed lesser teams, but, especially the game moved towards more passing, were too simple for high-powered attacks.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
I think this takes opponent into account.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
Yes but it still has to rely on limited data points of ours and our opponents out of conference results, and their opponents results, and so on.
We know our defense is dominant against the weak QB-challenged Big Ten offenses we have played. We don't know how well it would do against QB-proficient offenses like in the Big 12 or Pac 12. There have been few cross-conference OOC games like that to analyze across the Big Ten.
With the nine game conference schedule the Big Ten has, we (and all Big Ten teams) are still being analyzed against a predominately Big Ten bubble.
But time will tell in 2 weeks.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Gotcha!
November 13th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
I agree. I'd like to see how the defense would do against a team like Washington who throw it all over the place. We really haven't played a team like that
November 13th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Yes, we have yet to see anything like that. Nothing even close.
Maybe Maryland comes the closest, but Taulia did not even finish that game.
But we will see it in 2 weeks. Fingers crossed.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
It’s really too bad that Michigan (despite it’s less than challenging OOC schedule this season) didn’t actually play an FCS school.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
U-Conn going bowling!
November 13th, 2022 at 10:56 PM ^
We beat a 6-5 UCONN with a win over liberty - “Michigan has killed their chances at a quality win with this trash OOC schedule”
Notre Dame beats 3-7 Navy by 3 at home “Nicely done lets move you up 6 spots”
Honestly you cant make this shit up.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:18 PM ^
I agree with both your comments. Neither team has an identifiable character on defense. Michigan by design with the amoeba defense and an across-the-board team defense. I think OSU defense is based on bend-don't-break which hides weaknesses that better teams should be able to exploit.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
Wouldn't you say we have a terrifying pash rush if your O-line isn't up to snuff? We have a number of guys who can terrorize the QB.
November 13th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
You could definitely say that with the total number of sacks. I am a little concerned that the sacks early in the season were mostly after the game was decided although I am glad to see that some are coming earlier of late. Mike Morris is impressive.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
I kinda think our offense is better than the numbers. Just a hunch
November 13th, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
Not if our passing game continues to be mediocre.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
Truly. I expected the offense to carry the team. Way wrong.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
It may yet need to . . .
November 13th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
November 13th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
The way the offense controls the ball is a big part of the defensive success. They defend for 20-25 minutes per game, while our opponents are defending for 35-40 minutes per game. The beauty of this team is that no one unit carries the team. They are really solid in all three phases. I prefer this ball control offense to a quick strike offense. Seems to make for a better overall team in my opinion.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
It is only better if you make sure you get points out of those ball-control drives. They can't just be ball-control "body blows" drives with no points. You can't just eat up time, punt, turn the ball over to the opponent, and play defense, ala the 1980s. A modern quick-strike opponent's offense will eat you up.
This is the difference between the current (successful) Harbaugh offense of the 2020's and the old Harbaugh under-center offense of the 2010's. Those time-eating ball-control drives are now consistently making it to the red zone and scoring points. (Although more TDs and less FGs would be desirable.)
November 13th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
Amen. We saw it yesterday. If it's the end of the first quarter and you have held the ball for all but two minutes and the score is 7-0, a couple of fumbles can put a very inferior team ahead of you. Is what it is and I am not necessarily opposed--you gotta have a philosophy. But the question of whether you should have openly rehearsed your other options more may or may not loom large in two weeks.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Considering that so much of our offensive power has been kinda. . . latent all season long, this is encouraging, I suppose. And if defense wins championships, I suppose that's promising, too. It's going to be less about hitting the long ball, I feel, than the power of surprise on offense. Not having everyone here freak out after the first half. :)
November 13th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
Need to get some guys back healthy. Schoon and Morris are huge literally and figuratively.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Alabama #4? Huh, quite the list.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Bama scores well in fancy stats. It appears that they have played well in their losses.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Well the formula for SP+ was norm-referenced against Alabama so they’ll mathematically always be top-4.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
Can someone explain how the rankings relate to actual point projections? Why is 2.3 behind OSU a 5-6 point spread, not a 2.5 point spread?
November 13th, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
Neutral stadium. OSU being at home is worth 2-4 points for them.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
Home field advantage is generally 3 points, so that would go into OSU’s favor. The 2.3 pt spread is on a neutral field
November 13th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
Michigan offense is genius
1. Control ball forever - eat clock
2. Low risk run game to TD
3. Opposing defense gives up by 3-4 quarter
4. Keeps the BBall on grass offenses off-field and frustrated.
Hope they run over OSU
November 13th, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^
We’ve only played one team with anything resembling a pulse.
November 13th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
A ball control offense does have some big upsides in using up the clock and keeping the other team's offense off the field and wearing out their defense. If you told me I was guaranteed a TD and would I like it via a ball control drive or a quick strike drive, I would say ball control drive every time.
But a ball control offense does have some significant risks. It has more potential points of failure per drive than a quick strike offense does.
Where as a quick strike offense (ala OSU) may need 2 or 3 successful 3rd down conversions per drive to reach the red zone, a ball control offense (ala Michigan) may need 5 or 6 successful 3rd down conversions per drive to reach the red zone. More than twice as many potential points of failure per drive.
Any failure takes you off the field or puts you in higher-risk 4th down conversion scenarios.
Michigan vs OSU will be a red zone battle . . . who can get there the most and get TDs when they are there? We are keeping them off the field when we have our ball control drives, but we have to have more consistent success on more 3rd downs than they do.
This is where I am the most impressed and pleased with Blake Corum. He is a 3rd down success machine. Third and three or less is almost automatic. I thought it would be almost impossible to replace Haskins who was outstanding on third down, but Corum is doing it. He is not quite the pile-mover the Haskins was, but he is slippery and finds smaller piles. And then he moves those piles for first downs.
Given the way that Harbaugh wants to play, we will go as far as Blake Corum takes us.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
I appreciate how this team has defied my expectations at 10-0, and the various ways in which they have done it, including great defense and a punishing running game. This team is about the beat down! So it is!
November 13th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
OSU defense has put more emphasis on not giving up big plays this year. They give up yards but not points against the lower-level teams. It gets real in two weeks. It would take someone more knowledgeable than me to make an accurate prediction for the game, but their pass defense is their strength and while the OSU D-line is good they are not great. Their scheme may be hiding something Jim can exploit.
Fancy stats don't mean a lot here. With top 10 teams, too much depends on scheme and a few key players and fancy stats do their best, but they can only do so much to adjust for strength of schedule.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
I've read just the opposite on a few OSU sites quoting their new DC Nowles. His defenses are designed to somewhat stop-contain the run and keep the QB in the pocket.
He's actually stated that they expect 3 or 4 big plays against them in a game. They leave their DBs one on one quite and cheat their safeties at the LOS a bit and the big plays against them this year have been the long pass plays and the QB getting out of the pocket and running. They play 3 safeties quite a bit. Both the Indiana and especially the Toledo QB made a few big plays against them with their legs getting out of the pocket, JJ will have a huge say in THE GAME with his legs and especially his arm
November 13th, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
Crap, now I am confused. You are probably right. I just double checked a few more stats. OSU red zone defense is 103 but since teams don't often get to the red zone it is based on a small sample size. Sample sizes are small and sometimes the difference in any particular game is one or two successful or unsuccessful plays.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
If OSU can't stop the Michigan running game, they won't win. That for me is the key to who wins the game. I'm hoping for some really shitty weather come game day. Windy, cold, rainy/sleety kind of shitty weather.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^
A nasty, early winter day will be welcome.
November 13th, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
Agree but I don't think OSU expects to stop the UM running attack. They're goal is to contain it somewhat. Their strength is in numbers - they constantly rotate 7 to 8 DL in the game keeping them fresh. Yesterday they played 11 DL. Many of their fans disagree with the rotation as they argue that their DLs don't stay in long enough to get a feel for the game.
Their one HUGE area of concern this year has been the health of their CBs. I read that in one of their earlier games they only had 3 healthy CBs and was forced to start a true freshman. I believe they're almost back to full strength but they do leave those DBs on an island by themselves sometimes in trying to focus on the LOS. JJ can have a HUGE say in this game with intermediate to long passes
November 13th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
Pretty darn good all in all. Our passing game has room for improvement and a high ceiling imho. With our running game, Jon Jansen noted at the end of Inside Michigan Football we might be more November ready than OSU for the Big Game. Beat Illinois. Always be closing.
Don't know about Bama being #4. What are you gonna do ?
November 13th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
I hate Bama and Saban as much as the next guy, but even in a very down year for them, I don't think there are many teams that would want to line up across from them.
Yeah, they are beatable, but they can also beat any team in the country (besides probably UGA), more often than not.
IE, if UT and Bama or LSU and Bama play 10 times on a neutral field, I'd go with Bama more than 5 out of 10.
They are an underachieving team with some holes right now that finally looks mortal, but they could just as well be undefeated as have 4 losses - like most good but not elite teams in a normal year.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
Only three SEC teams in their Top Five? There must be a problem with their algorithm. It should include LSU and Ole Miss.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
Don't know if it's factored into these offensive rankings, but the methodical, slow-motion bludgeonings our offense is executing don't exactly produce the gaudy stats. A 350 yard offensive game where the opponent barely gets 100 is a more emphatic beatdown than a wizz-bang 500 yard game (where the opponent also gets 400). That's where the complementary football comes in and i guess justifies the comprehensive #3 ranking.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
Waiting for the weather report that Thursday and Friday. If it's a windy, snowy, rainy day, will probably be a pick em
November 13th, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
As we saw in Chicago last week, hope for the winds - especially over 35+ MPH. I read that one of the wind gusts that afternoon measured 76 MPH at O Hare. It completely took the OSU passing game out of the picture.
NU - supposedly - also played out of the wildcat on quite a few plays which accounted for some sizeable rushing yards and surprised OSU. I didn't watch the game so just relaying what I read.
I don't think the wet weather affects them like the wind does. They played in 30-degree temps yesterday with some spitting snow from time to time. We need to keep our fingers crossed for some sizeable wind.