Postseason Expectations
Tonight sucked, no doubt about it. But for those complaining our offense isn't good enough to make a run, our kenpom offensive efficiency is actually about the same as last year (and our d is much better). So what do people think happens in the tourneys? My predictions:
BTT: neutral court, (hopefully) neutral refs, Matthews back, angry team. I think we win it.
NCAA: Always matchup dependent. We should at least make the sweet 16. I think we bow out in the elite 8.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:58 AM ^
We either beat Iowa, Purdue, and MSU for the title or we lose on Friday. No in between. I can almost promise you that.
Have no idea for the NCAA tourney. Playing in Iowa is gonna suck, and obviously you can go 0-100 from three and the other team can go 100-100, but I will say that if you're basing it on average performance vs average performance, there are probably two or three teams that will beat Michigan if everything is normal, MSU just happens to be one of them.
Only a sith deals in absolutes.
All generalizations are bad.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
This is Ron Burgundy?
Am I the only one who thinks that the Jedi are stupid and nonsensical in Star Wars?
We’d all be Sith bc we have emotions and care about shit. Jedi just mentally masturbate and sit around while the world collapses around them. Sith would do something.
The old Star Wars lore that Disney made non-canon was so good at explaining this stuff. The new shit sucks something fierce
Just a thought. Side rant over
Whoa, you are thinking about this way too much!
First of all I’m thrilled that Kathleen Kennedy and Disney in general made what constitutes cannon clear. Having random books count as cannon in the past was always silly.
As for your Jedi comments, yes they needed to change. It’s seems Rey is the first of a new Jedi, spurred on by Luke and Yoda.
The random books made the Star Wars universe actually feel like a universe rather than a Skywalker fairy tale.
The Old Republic and ancient Sith/Jedi arch’s are amazing if not better than the actual movies
It’s not just a “sky walker fairy tale”. There are the two stand alone movies now, clone wars and rebels animated series, and many books that deal with a variety of stories.
You do make a good point about the old republic. And I believe Disney will make a new trilogy based on the old republic. Probably include ancient sith.
What the fuck is a sith?
yeah, Disney ruined Star Wars worse than GL did.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:59 AM ^
I had to be reminded that it’s a building year which.. it is. It sucks to lose to State twice no doubt but, idk, we are alright
All the BTT championships am belong to Michigan.
National title.
My prediction:
After any and every loss, people will claim there is a conspiracy by refs against us, and only us.
After every questionable call in favor of Michigan, those same people will say nothing.
Don't call 30 FTA vs. 7 against us and we'll shut up.
I mean it honestly depends on the draw. Last year's team played poorly offensively in every tournament game besides one but got a good draw. The other question would is this team capable of playing at the level they did against UNC and Villanova earlier in the season. I don't think we have seen the level of consistent ball movement we saw in those games since then. I mean something like Simpsons shooting will be a consistent flaw with this team, but they really get bogged down when guys try and do much and the ball stops moving. When this team was playing at their absolute best they were playing as a team that was greater than the sum of their parts. Hopefully they can find that for the tourney.
This would be a very logical argument if things did not change significantly over the course of a season. This team certainly was a thing of beauty when they were greater than the sum of their parts. They are no longer this and may, in fact, be on the negative side of this equation. It would be disingenuous to ignore the fact that the opposition has learned how to relegate this team to a dysfunctional offensive hell. Here, I wonder if Michigan's otherwise outstanding coaching staff is too close to the issues-and cannot see the forest for the trees...this happens...these quips come into being for a reason. This team, who in their opening season run knew how to find a way to win, now seems more adept at finding a way to lose.
I am presently lost between knowing they could win it all while at the same time knowing that they may not win any more games this season. This is a very strange, unfamiliar, uncomfortable place to be with regards to a Beilein coached team.
If you recall the last time we toyed with being #1 for a while followed by a late Big Ten fade and lost a conference title on the last day of the regular season, we should have won the national title with competent officiating. So let's get that.
True and that team was also flawed just on the defensive and rebounding side instead. I mean I don't think the odds are great to get to another final four or title game, but I think it is crazy for people to think a flawed team can't ride their strength to a deep run potentially, at least until you run into truly elite team offensively.
March 10th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
But last night everyone said we’ll lose our first game in the BTT and the Dance and Beilein should resign tomorrow!!!1!1
Every damn loss.
Second weekend
Throw out the Kenpom efficiency ratings. Last years team didn't go on offensive lulls for an entire halfs because Duncan, Mo, and Rahk were reliable jump shooters who could spread the defense. This team simply doesn't have enough shooters.
I don't see us winning the Big Ten Tourney because we have to go through high powered offenses in Iowa and Sparty to get there.
Eliminated in the 2nd weekend is my guess for the tournament.
Overall, it's amazing they went 26-5 while shooting so poorly.
Ok I'll throw out the actual statistics and just take your word for it. We've had problems with scoring droughts for years. It's not just this year.
Those teams were the best 3 point shooting teams in the Fucking conference.
This years team is in the bottom 4 of the big ten in shooting 3s.
If you can’t shoot 3s in Beileins offense, you can’t do shit
I would definitely recommend watching some of last year's games before saying they never went on long offensive lulls. Just off the top of my head: @OSU, @UNC, @Nebraska, both games vs NW, and against FSU.
Ceiling is Sweet 16. Had high hopes, just don’t see it with this team anymore.
So if Michigan plays their best basketball of the season (definition of ceiling), you are guaranteeing that they will lose to a 3 seed in the sweet sixteen, as that would be the highest possible matchup. Even though we've already seen them dominate a 1 seed (UNC), a 4 seed (Nova), a 3 seed (Purdue) and two wins over a 5 seed (Maryland). That seems kinda pessimistic
The UNC, Villanova, and Purdue teams U of M played are not even close to the same when we played them. We aren’t the same team either, we are probably a little better defensively now than in November, but our offense just isn’t there. Look I love Zavier Simpson, I’ve been a fan for the last two years, but he’s lack of shooting puts us at a ceiling. Last year we got away with it because MAAR was the tough jump shot maker and clutch time performer. Moe could create and shoot too. Z and Teske have their strengths, but their weaknesses just can’t be compensated for with the supporting cast. Teams did not have much film on us at the beginning of the year, it was hard to scout us, now their is a huge sample size of every one and teams can exploit our weaknesses. A sweet 16 is a good accomplishment too, just not quite what we had hoped for once we started rolling (and since stopped).
March 10th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
You have a point about UNC being better now
Purdue just lost to Mn and Nova is probably going to drop out of the top 25 again, just lost to Seton Hall.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Northernmich, I think you will be surprised at how good Michigan looks when we get to a nuetral court and out of the BIG grind. I was actually encouraged by a lot of what I saw last night in a lot of areas. 1) Iggy has developed into the unquestioned alpha and will be a go-to scorer, 2) Poole is settling down into a more defined role, 3) We have a bench.
We lost, but still answered some questions. Winston got cooking, it was a ref show and Breslin was up for grabs. The outcome bears little in this team’s post season outlook.
Thoughtful post. Totally agree with what you said. It’s early but I’m liking what I see out of DD
Izzo/Xavier neutralized Teske in the two meetings with MSU and that was a big part of them winning, I believe anyways.
But, Teske stoned Maryland's NBA first round draft pick, on Maryland's home court. I dunno, maybe Izzo is a better in-game coach than I thought.
March 10th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
A Sweet 16 appearance could be considered a successful season. Not enough depth or pure shooting to grind it out for a deep tounament run. I wouldn't be surprised if they go down in round 2. Starters will get wore out in close games. Or John B. will keep them out during crucial moments.
Is this literally the longest season in history? Is it me or is the tournament much later than usual? Aren't the conference tournaments usually held this weekend and then the NCAA tourney would start next week? I remember the 1st/2nd round always being around St. Patrick's Day. I can't tell if something changed and they bumped it back or if this is just the latest possible date it can be. Either way, I'm tired of waiting for it - watched every game this year and I want to see Michigan conquer it already! GO BLUE!
March 10th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Last year the BTT was held a week early because of a concert or something like that in the venue they were going to use.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
It was moved up because Delaney wanted to play the B1G tournament in Madison Square Garden for some reason, even though the Big East owns that tournament site, all the branding and mystique around it, and also (of course) the usual weekend. So Delaney made like a second-class conference and took the earlier week just so he could play in MSG, like Chicago or Indy or anywhere in Big Ten country just aren't good enough. Will be glad when he's gone.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
The tournament was a week early because the Big East Tournament has the following week at MSG, and has had it for about 30 years.
Delaney was so desperate to play in MSG that he accepted playing a week early. Which was great for me as a New Yorker, I got to go to the semis against State and the final against Purdue.
I am generally more concerned about the second (or third) game in a weekend, as depth has been a worry, and they seem to run out of gas sometimes.
But honestly I think this Michigan squad could win or lose any game at any stage of the tournaments this year, against just about any opponent. It mostly depends on how well they play, especially mininimizing the damage of those 5-10 minute cold spells they always seem to go through; the particular matchups and managing the bench; how the officials are calling the games. A very high degree of variablity, so I will not be surprised no matter what happens.
I just don’t see this team winning the BTT or doing anything special in the ncaa. Hope I’m wrong but too many shortcomings.
Sweet 16. Virginia wins out.
Same as they were at the beginning of the season. Same as every season for every Michigan sport. They're going to win it all.
I think they lose the BTT final.
And I too think they lose in the Elite Eight.
Not enough depth or rebounding to make it to Minneapolis.
Farther than sparty. That’s honestly all I want at this point; in either tournament.
Honestly depends on the draw and what region we get into. Should make it past the round of 64, but after that it’s all a crapshoot.
If we end up in Duke’s region and Zion is back for the tourney, I don’t see any reasonable way past the Elite Eight. Hell, we could bow out in the first weekend if we run into a mid-major that simply has a hot shooting night. This team’s offense just is what it is at this point, and I can’t reasonably expect them to go back to the way they played in December. This really isn’t like your older brother’s Beilein team that can come back from big scoring deficits.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^
You really think it would be a crap shoot in the round of 32? Presently Mich is on the 2 line (including the Sparty loss) while the 7s are Lousville, Nova, Cincinatti, and Wofford.
Of course, upsets do occur, but I think we'd be a significant favorite in the round of 32 and a slight favorite in the Sweet 16. If chalk holds, we'd be a dog thereafter, but last year all of the high seeds fell before they got to Michigan (except Nova).
We will struggle to make it to the sweet 16. No way we get any farther than that. What happened to the team that played in November? That was a National championship team.
Got swept by a Top 10 rival, lost the last game of the year on the road
Rival gets to celebrate a share of the conference championship after the game
3 seed in the conference tourney
26-5 overall record to show for it
Duke has a lot to be proud of....?and so does Michigan.....season is not over yet.....
Yeah except Duke beat #2 UVA twice. We beat....Wisconsin @ home?