Postseason Expectations
Tonight sucked, no doubt about it. But for those complaining our offense isn't good enough to make a run, our kenpom offensive efficiency is actually about the same as last year (and our d is much better). So what do people think happens in the tourneys? My predictions:
BTT: neutral court, (hopefully) neutral refs, Matthews back, angry team. I think we win it.
NCAA: Always matchup dependent. We should at least make the sweet 16. I think we bow out in the elite 8.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
For the Big Ten Tournament they are going to bow out to either the Spartans, the Hawkeyes, or even the NIttany Lions. This team is skittish; they are going to have scoring droughts and what's more, they know it.
For the Final Four Tournament, seeding is going to be a big deal. Defense travels; it's going to be the reason they get to the Sweet Sixteen at least, but I'd be surprised if they make it to the Elite Eight, let alone past it.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
Well, with the first win in the Big Ten tournament on Friday, Michigan will set a new record for consecutive Big Ten tournament victories at 9. They are currently tied with Ohio State. I expect that to be the first thing to happen.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
Lose in the first game.
March 10th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
Win it ALL
March 10th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
It’s hard to expect much more than BTT runner up and sweet 16 appearance. They are capable of more but a whole lot would have to go right to get a BTT crown on past the sweet 16. It’s doable but I’m not expecting either to happen
Didn't get to watch the game last night, but I've read all the comments, saw the highlights, etc.
I only needed to see one stat.... 3 points in 9 minutes - let me say that again, "3 (THREE!) fucking points in 9 fucking minutes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You don't win SHIT when these type of droughts continue to exist. Save me the referee bullshit excuses. NOTHING excuses scoring 3 effing points in nearly an entire half (of a half) of a D1 college basketball game.
I literally had to look at the box score real close to make sure I was seeing things correctly.
This team will bow out in both tourneys because of their pathetic offense. I love Z, but his inability to be even a modest threat to hit a jump shot is killing the offense. The D just sags off of him and it becomes a "defensive power play" (hockey reference) for the opposition.
I see others saying we need to push tempo more...really? During the highlights, that's all I saw was MSU pushing the play...WHY? Because we have NO FUCKING BENCH!!! We run our offense at a snail's pace because we have to keep guys fresh. If we get into a running match with someone, the legs will be gone during the middle of the second half (honestly, I think that's what MSU was able to do in both games...we had decent leads with roughly 12ish minutes to go in both --- and, then...we fell apart.
Just getting fucking sick of losing to our rivals, more times than not, in both football and basketball (I know, I know...last year we got MSU twice in basketball).
I think my football frustration has me putting more pressure (probably unfairly so) on our basketball program than it deserves.
Thanks for letting me vent...
Strange substitution patterns in the game those should have been done in earlier games had a chance at the end of the half to widen the lead but let one guy play dribble dribble throw up a long 3, with no offensive flow! I love JB but his coaching in both State games were well strange, but the scoring droughts are a killer I don’t care what kind of defense you play you can’t have scoring droughts and win big games and the mentality will be ok when the refs let us play is not going to fly the plan is out there on how to defend Michigan it started in the loss to Wisconsin when we fired in 54 points!
Lol at everyone predicting doom in the tournament. So because we lost twice to a top 10 sparty team we are going to lose to a 15 seed? Or a 7 seed? Obviously anything can happen but this is still a good team.
I'll say we lose in the BTT final and make the elite 8. That's about how good this team is, a top 5-10 team. +/- 1 game for March madness occuring.
I sure hope you’re right but I see to many flaws offensively, bench wise, and any kind of foul trouble and we are not sure if Matthews is a go??
Well, we certainly need to rebound the ball better than against MSU. They had multiple possessions numerous times, and eventually would score. I have felt all year that the team lacks a reliable scorer. Plenty of guys can score, but there is no one guy you can rely on game in and game out, it seems. Without that, I think a couple NCAA wins is the ceiling, but I hope I am wrong.
we win 2 games each in both remaining tournaments
Depends on the matchup but, typical of Michigan, they’ll tease you just to let you down in the end.
This has not been Michigan's recent basketball history. But the last 1/3+ of this season certainly leaves one apprehensive. But do understand, this team could get its act together and make a very deep run-maybe even more than that.
Just win the first weekend. Everything is a wacky-fun crapshoot after that.
If the officials allow teams to play tough, aggressive defense then we can go far. But we have to stay out of foul trouble because we don't have a strong bench. Matthews coming back will be huge, we need the quality minutes from a senior. He could spark a run.
Wow. For a guy who gets ripped by some here for being negative it looks like im the only one in this thread who remains optimistic. I think we'll lose in the championship game of the B1G but go to the final four in tourny.
Why? For the same reason these players could dismantle Villanova and beat NC. The officials in those games were neutral and so will the officials be in the tourny. I KNOW there arent "B1G officials" but the same dudes from this area show up and officiate the majority of the games for the conference. And those guys will NOT be out west or down south or wherever we get placed. THANK GOD.
I think people will be pleasantly surprised to find out how good we look (and how bad Sparty will look) when freed from officials with a pre-set agenda in place.
I'm with you. Duke also got swept by their rival and didn't miss out on the conference crown by much, but I doubt you'll find anyone here that thinks Duke is nearly as awful as some here are making us out to be right now. We still have a very strong team, and this program has a recent history of performing well on neutral courts.
Also, just look at our recent tournament performances compared to those of Iowa, Wisconsin and MSU. All three teams seem to do pretty well on their home court during B1G play, but blow it big time in the NCAA Tournament. Hmm... it's almost as if it's a lot harder to win when you don't have something like a 30-7 free throw advantage.
I love Michigan hoops more than anything and appreciate the fun and joy they bring during the 5/6 months winter and spring every year
But this team would get smoked by Duke. They would probably lose by 15 IMHO.
MSU has pantsed this team twice with not a single + player outside of CW.
Duke would own this UM team.
The reffing sucked ass and was a factor last night, but the refs weren’t standing around not running any sets and playing hero ball for the entire second half. When all 5 guys literally cannot shoot the ball at a major D1 level, you’re pretty easy to guard.
As a team we have some major flaws - primarily our bench sucks. Matthews needs to get healthy or we are doomed.
The bench may be the primary excuse but it is not the primary flaw.
The ides of March will reveal justice. We don’t lose to losers
Shouldn't Michigan be worried about the Ides of March? Wasn't DeJulius Caesar killed on the Ides of March?
Well, the Ides of March is our wedding anniversary...and one helluva a day-in my favor!!!
I don’t know what to expect.
Could now out early. Could put it all together and go on a rampage. The ceiling is high but we do have weaknesses.
I’m encouraged that Castleton and DeJulius have come along and give us some depth. If we can get Matthews back healthy that would be huge.
I’d love another shot at Sparty in the BTT.
We will go to the finals. I will not comment beyond that.
GO BLUE!!
I say if we go
out west , relax , and play to the comfort from solid michigan fanbase in attendance, we could play well . Must find away to get poole moving off screens in the second half of games . Elite 8 could still happen
Trying to predict the postseason results is a crapshoot because we don’t know any of the matchups yet. Last year we had relatively favorable matchups and made it to the NC game.
This team’s floor is losing in the first game of both tournaments. It could happen, and I’m mentally prepared for it in case it does. There are no guarantees in college basketball no matter how good you are. Look at Virginia losing to a 16 seed by 20 points. This Michigan team has weaknesses and goes cold shooting too often. We are missing one or two elite shooters like Moe, MAAR, and Duncan. So I could see this team losing early if we go cold.
The team’s ceiling is winning it all. We return a point guard who led the team to the NC game last year. That experience is worth a lot, as no other team has it. We also are one of the best defensive teams in the country with a coach who is outstanding in non-conference games. That gives us a fighting chance.
Also, I just looked at Torvik’s site since 1/15/19. We have gone 9-5 since then, good for the number 9 team in the country according to his stats. We haven’t played as well as in the early part of the season but we can still get back there. It will be nice to get out of conference and face teams that aren’t familiar with us.
We’ll have to try to limit the scoring droughts to go far but in most games our defense has carried us and that has the potential to continue to be the case.
Whatever happens it’s been a fun season.
I am not expecting a long run. With our offensive deficiencies, we are at risk to lose to just about any tournament team.
That’s why it’s march madness.
You have your Loyola’s, you have your middle tenn states...
you never know!
I think UM loses to Iowa on Friday night and slips to a 3 seed and maybe even a 4 seed.
I think it’s then 50/50 they get upset in the 1st round and if UM wins, 90/10 to lose in the 2nd round.
This team has lost its mojo and has shown it can’t win when the chips are on the table.
Z and Teske were exposed against MSU and when 2/5s of your team are this limited offensively, you are getting bounced immediately.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:47 PM ^
<checks score of @Maryland game, presently a #5 seed>
We won't face a team as good as State until the Elite Eight, and if we make it that far, we're playing with house money.
I wish I had your optimism. Watching high level UM hoops in February and March is the highlight of my sports years.
I am just an old curmudgeon approaching the start of my mid life crisis and I guess I just don’t see any bright spots on this team, in terms of playing the best hoops at the right time.
They just can’t play any semblance of a competent D1 offense, IMO.
Z is a great kid but he is pretty awful at shooting the ball and Teske is useless because this team doesn’t know how to entry pass.
They have already slid to a 3 seed and most likely will be a 4 seed after the BTT and even if this team can somehow beat the 5 seed, they aren’t beating any 1 seed.
Hopefully there are 2-3 shooters on the bench or are incoming freshman that will see the floor next year.
I feel your pain-your assessment has validity...I too am very reserved. However, understand that this team can beat ANY other team in the country.
All I know is if we get a 3 seed and draw a 2 seeded Duke with a healthy Zion I'll be PISSED!
Presuming Duke would be one of the higher 2 seeds, Mich would have to fall to one of the lower 3 seeds for that matchup to occur
This is a nice team. I see a Sweet 16 like two years ago.
Depends on matchups obviously, but I could see either a sweet 16 or an elite 8 appearance and not be surprised. Anything else would surprise me.
But on a neutral court with Beilein coaching who knows, they might make a deeper run.
I’m actually cautiously optimistic after the last few games as we seem to have strengthened our depth (really like the emergence of castelon in particular). Even brooks showed signs yesterday.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:54 PM ^
Agreed, Brooks played really well.
I thought he was supposed to be a good shooter. He stayed while Ibi Watson left, even though Watson was getting more playing time.
Is he underperforming his offensive potential (i.e. is he a practice shooter)? His shooting percentage is not good in games (36.3% overall, 28.9% from three).
Beilein must see something in him, as he keeps giving him minutes.
Looking at brackets now, I like our chances against Purdue rather than Wisconsin. Let Wisconsin beat Sparty or wear them down and then we win the title. I think we beat either on a neutral floor. No Trohl center or Izzo pocket refs
I am afraid of Iowa more than anyone else right now. We do not match up well with them.
March 10th, 2019 at 10:16 PM ^
Just give me Fall & football. I want to see us destroy them in AA. Just destroy Dantonio & the rest of the molesters & couch burners.
March 10th, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
No Offense.. wont go far ..MAYBE 16
BTT upset in first game
While Izzo has worked the B10 officials to the point of having his way with them, he has also figured out this teams weaknesses. They can be out-rebounded, they don't go hard to the basket, and you can let them shoot from outside the arc all day as they just are not very good at it. I'd like to believe differently but the proof is in the pudding. They caught teams off guard early but just as Indiana showed other teams the game plan for beating the defense in football, Izzo has clearly laid the groundwork for shutting down this offense. Clearly JB needs to start emphasizing hitting the glass and guys following their shots as you just cant beat teams with the rebounding disparity of which they showed on Saturday.
March 11th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
My inner self is Yoda. The force is real!
March 11th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
This team doesn't seem to have the depth for a deep run.
Here's the basic gist of over a hundred posts: We played really well early on and lately, not as well.
I wonder what happened. Hmmmm...
THE BIG TEN SEASON! It's not hard to figure out. The B1G is far and away the best conference top to bottom. Penn State lost their first ten conference games but beat top 20 ACC team Virginia Tech. IU lost a boatload of B1G games after beating Big East second best Marquette and Louisville, another ACC NCAA -bound team.
Michigan has wins over the ACC co-champion (by 17), the Big East outright champion (by 27) & the B1G co-champion (by 19)!!
No conference is tougher to play in than the B1G. There are no nights off. The coaches are excellent and they know the other teams inside and out.
Michigan will fare better once they get into the NCAA tournament. Elite 8 at a minimum. Final Four is a realistic possibility.
And we will be even better next year!!
GO BLUE!!