Basketbullets: Penn State 2018-19 Part Two
2/12/2019 – Michigan 69, Penn State 75 – 22-3, 11-3 Big Ten
I muted the TV and went to go get something to eat at halftime, so I didn't realize what had happened until my eye slid to the chryon at the bottom of the screen some ten minutes later: John Beilein, ejected from the game. The replay followed:
That is how Tom Izzo greets his grandmother. That is how Fran McCaffrey orders coffee. It appears for all the world that the thing that got John Beilein ejected for the first time since he had rad sideburns was putting his fingers up to indicate the number of missed calls that he was incensed about. Maybe he said "dangit" in there somewhere.
And… I guess everyone's got a breaking point, but I thought that was a weird one. If Beilein had blown up after watching Ethan Happ's 63rd foul on Saturday that would have made all the sense in the world. Here an admittedly pretty awful missed moving screen call seemed to punctuate a first half with little in the way of officiating controversy.
I was more concerned with the fact that Michigan was playing like they'd all hit themselves in the head with frying pans before the game. Maybe Beilein was too, and was on his last nerve when Simpson got blasted into next week. Or maybe the cumulative effect of road losses to Iowa and Wisconsin in which Michigan got boned, to use a technical term, had worn down Beilein's tolerance for dumb stuff.
Whatever the reason Beilein got an unprecedented ejection, here's a crossroads: the nicest guy in college basketball just got fed up. We know referees are susceptible to everything they seem to be. They favor home teams, and trailing teams, and especially teams that have committed more fouls than the opponent. There's no way to quantify how much yellin' impacts them, but it probably does.
At the very least we'll get to see how the people complaining about people complaining about refs handle the fact that Beilein's lost his marbles about the whistle he's getting.
[After THE JUMP: ELON DUNKS]
"Emotionally drunk," the stat. Penn State won this game largely because Myles Dread went 5/8 on high quality threes. That's a baffling thing to have happen. Michigan is extraordinarily good at sticking to shooters and Dread is Just A Shooter at this juncture of his career—some 80% of his shots come from outside the arc and he has 19 FTAs on the season.
Dread's open looks didn't come after clever screens or Villanova ball movement. They just happened. This wasn't Michigan doubling and not managing to scramble back. It was as if Tommy Amaker had momentarily possessed the mind of whoever was supposed to be in Dread's face.
The rest of PSU went 1/7 from three, and even though the announcers kept talking about how Stevens was "giving it to" Jon Teske he had 20 points on 24 shot equivalents before 10 FTAs in the dying minutes. Michigan inexplicably losing Dread is the only reason PSU crept above a PPP.
1-2-2 is death. I have no idea why everyone doesn't do the half-ass three-quarter-court press against Michigan. It cost Penn State exactly one basket when Simpson was able to break it and get an and-one to Teske. When not doing that it hampered Michigan's offensive flow. Michigan frequently didn't even run an action until there were ten seconds left on the shot clock.
Michigan ended up scoring 1.05 PPP thanks to a 62% shooting night on twos and acceptable numbers from three but it feels like the TOs (12) and lack of OREBs (4) were in part because Michigan was scrambling for shots and either got in trouble or just jacked something up with no penetration to draw OREB-generating help defense.
In which late fouling makes things seem very different. Penn State FTs in the last 2:34: 18. There were four from the techs, and a total of twelve in the other 37 minutes and change.
The silver lining: Chucky Charlie Charles. Matthews put up a 145 ORTG, hit some more midrange stuff I hated until it went down, hit 3/4 threes, and generally looked like good Matthews from last year's postseason instead of the Struggle Bus Matthews we've gotten most of the year.
Poole shot selection. It's bad much of the time, but in this game it didn't really jump out aside from one very bad idea NBA three in the second half. Much of the time it's a goofy Poole shot… or the same thing later.
ELON DUNKS!!! Thanks to Nick Malish for reminding me of the most important ongoing story in college basketball: the Elon Fightin' Musks Quest For Just One Dunk. The quest has come to a satisfactory conclusion:
I hope the basket melted like the One Ring in Mount Doom when Steven Santa Ana thundered home Elon's first dunk of the year in a 72-60 OT loss to Northeastern.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
Yeah brah - arguing is more fun when there is no data involved.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Teske's defense looked really soft in the first half, giving significant ground on what seemed like every possession.
I think he's still got the jitters about the fouls he racked up against Iowa. Beilein can talk about finding a better balance, as he spoke after Wisconsin, but Teske seems very sensitive to fouling right now. And there is good reason for it, since Iggy's autobench meant that Michigan had to rely on Livers at the 4. Two fouls on Teske and you're putting Johns in there for significant time, and the rest of the guys get zero rest.
The complete inability to develop another guard who can operate on offense has really hamstrung the team. A team with a 6-man rotation really can't afford any kind of foul trouble. That hurts on defense quite a bit.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
PSU was holding the entire 1st half. JB was complaining about that and other no calls on every commercial break. He took the opportunity to express his extreme displeasure but there wasn't one word of profanity that I heard. 1st T was given because JB was not letting it go. Fine, everyone gets 2 and sometimes you need to use one.
From where I sat, it appeared that Rob Riley got involved for no other reason than to be involved. JB was already being walked back by Saadi and everyone could have cooled off in the locker room. Instead, he throws 2nd at JB.
Do they have history?
February 13th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
Riley didn't give either T. Szelc gave both. When Beilein gave the parting shot that included holding up 3 fingers, it was Szelc that blew the whistle and signaled the T. Riley also did, but after Szelc. Interestingly, Garrison, who was standing right there (and whom the conspiracy theorists are blaming for everything) is the only ref who didn't react to whatever Beilein said.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
Thanks. I was going from memory and Riley/Szelc look enough alike that I had them confused. I had to google them for images to see who the refs were.
Take everything I said about those two and swap the names.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^
Steve in PA, If I recall, you had seats right behind the Michigan bench, right? Appreciate your insight and unique perspective here.
February 13th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
Yes. My daughter's legs and mine are in the tv shots. We were no more than 10' away. Nothing I heard merited ejection.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^
"the people complaining about people complaining about refs"
This group of people on the boards, and facebooks, and twitters drive me insane. It is hard enough going out and defeating another team in athletic competition. To also have to defeat the officials makes the task doubly hard.
Yeah, do your damnedest to win the game despite awful calls by the refs if you are a part of the team. But, Christ forbid that fans use the "excuse" of feeling that the team got jobbed by the refs.
If you are an individual that feels that officiating is an "excuse", don't reply to that suggestion by complaining about those that feel the officiating was poor. Respond by explaining how the officiating was not a "cause" of the loss (rather than "excuse"). Don't be a meathead that feels that no matter the officiating, the team in question should be able to overcome it and win. The team is tasked with defeating the opponent, not defeating the opponent plus a one-sided officiating job.
/rant
February 13th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
Game was absolutely there for the taking just like it was in Iowa at one point. Poole's shot selections halted the comeback. It was also Washington taking out Matthews when he was on fire.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^
Agreed. I thought Poole was pretty bad last night. Really hoping a light goes off at some point and he makes the late season leap a number of our players have made under JB, but it is getting late for that.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
I agree, I thought Poole's shot selection was bad. He was practically at half court shooting 3's.
February 13th, 2019 at 9:17 PM ^
he's been off for a while. Seeming to take a bad shot at pivotal moments. I remember him taking a lousy shot when we were only down four.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
i...didn't think he played all that poorly
/ducks, pops back up...
he was 1/8 from three, but i have to say - at the time i didn't think the looks were all that bad, even the deeper ones.
February 14th, 2019 at 7:50 AM ^
They were all decent looks but just didn't go in.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
There's a better video of the double technical somewhere that shows this more clearly, but if you look at this video at (43-44 sec) JB is done talking and the ref gives JB a technical. JB turns and walks away (45 sec) The ref leans in toward JB and yells something additional (after he has already had the last word/given the technical) at JB in apparent anger (46-47sec). So of course JB turns around.
That ref should have gotten thrown out of the game by the other 3 refs right there. I've literally never seen something as unprofessional as that at even a middle school game. I have to believe the ref who threw the 2nd t heard the other ref and thought it was JB talking smack. JB was 20 yards away in a stadium going nuts, there's no way even if he did say something uncouth that they heard it... Though the refs could likely hear each other.
February 14th, 2019 at 1:14 AM ^
There was no stadium going nuts. It's an illusion TV uses to make BJC seem more alive than it is. Same with the PA and pumped in music. Since I was there last, they started hanging black curtains in the 200-level so you can't see how empty the place really is.
The #6 team in the nation is visiting and this all the fuller it gets!
This is a panorama I took at ~10 minutes into the game. I wanted to give them a chance to filter in because it did snow ~4 inches. This is how full BJC has been everytime I visit. Clearly more Michigan fans than PSU.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
So college refs are the equivalent of the giant bullet power up in Mario Kart?
February 13th, 2019 at 3:51 PM ^
I'd say the blue shell is more appropriate.
Especially in the Big Ten. Holy hell, you do NOT want to be in first place.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
I have a feeling Beilein has an answer to the 1-2-2 but didn't want to show it in a semi-meaningless game against a last place team. Here's hoping at least.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
Beilein has but one answer to any kind of defense that is played against his team right now. His team needs to make shots. I think his exasperation directed at the refs last night was partly misdirected frustration with our inability to make outside shots. If you have watched him on the bench, Beilein has done so many facepalms over our shooting and general offensive execution in the last month that I am guess both his face and his palm are getting sore. Our starting backcourt was 1 for 12 from three. It is just not happening if that is the case.
February 13th, 2019 at 7:00 PM ^
Simpson was 2-6, which is fine. Starting backcourt was 3-14. And that was all Poole going 1-8.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
That is so ridiculous. You really think John Beilein thought “if we lose this game who cares? as long as we don’t put lots of things on film it’s good.” You’re kidding me right? I can not believe you actually think Beilein would purposely not effectively want to beat a press in conference game so his effective one “wasn’t on tape”. He would purposefully set up his team for failure? Gtfo of here.
February 13th, 2019 at 6:06 PM ^
I think YOU'RE ridiculous. How 'bout YOU gtfo? Now that we got that petty internet tough-guy bullshit out of the way, let's try to have a conversation like adults.
To your substantive point, no, I don't think Beilein said to himself let's lose this game instead of putting a press beater on tape. What I do think is that he didn't focus on attacking the 1-2-2 in multiple ways like he would have against a better team in a more serious setting, like he would in a post-season tournament. I bet Beilein instead used his allotted practice time to focus on shooting and getting his team into better shots--like the other person responding to my post was emphasizing. I bet if there was another team running a 1-2-2 press in the tournament, we won't see Beilein running the same slow triangle attack he used all game against PSU and will have various other ways up the court. I also think Beilein thought he could beat PSU running his base stuff and, yes, didn't want to empty his entire bag of tricks. But what the hell do I know, I'm just an internet tough-guy with an opinion and a computer . . . like you.
February 13th, 2019 at 7:31 PM ^
While 99% of northernmich posts are terrible, he is correct. Your assertion that Beilein would withhold something in a game with such high leverage that a loss likely cost Michigan a conference title and a 1 seed is so absurd for so many reasons:
1) the aforementioned leverage of this game. It was a crucial game going into a tough stretch of the schedule. It was far from meaningless.
2) There are only so many ways to break a press (as opposed to football in which there are many, many ways to exploit a defense so you can more easily get away with withholding some of your plays while still running effective plays), and every coach knows all the ways. Keeping something off film doesn't do much to prevent a coach from saying, ok, they might break it this way, they might break it this way, or they might break it this way so we're going to be prepared for each way.
3) If you have your preferred way to break it, showing that you can break it is better than withholding it because coaches will see it and be like, eh, this isn't going to work against them and they won't press. That's the result you want. If you can beat something do it, and force the other coach to try to find something else to do (and then anticipate/prepare for all those other things they might try).
4) This is the biggest thing but the upside of withholding some magical way to beat a press isn't worth it. The only reason you'd do something like that is if you wanted your opponent(s) to keep playing it only to unleash your magical solution upon them at the right time. But when you do, the upside is so limited in a basketball game with a high number of possessions. Maybe you break it once and get a bucket. Maybe they run it once more and you break it again for a bucket. That's literally your best case scenario. Four points out of it. Then they just stop running it. Four points in a basketball game is negligible compared whatever you gave up to keep that secret.
That said, you will see Beilein try other ways to beat it. It's not because he wanted to keep it off film. It's because he's been running what he thought would be best and since it's not working ideally, he'll try something else.
February 13th, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^
You make a lot of good points and I can't say I necessarily disagree actually. But my point is, and you sort of touched on it, is that a creative offensive mind like Beilein's has more ways to beat a press than the mere one way he showed against Penn State. Hell, I can think of three off the top of my head and I'm an idiot. So the question becomes why did he not implement them, especially in a close game that was as meaningful as you say? The game was certainly in doubt late and Michigan could have used any advantage it could late in the game. Yet they didn't change anything and still walked it up against the press. Of course Beilein getting ejected had a lot to do with it, but aside from that, in my opinion he didn't think he needed to for this game nor did he want to, so it wasn't part of the game prep and game plan. He focused on something else.
I do disagree with your final point. There are certain situations in basketball where you don't show your cards and only unleash it at the right moment. Four points in basketball is NOT negligible when its a close game (obvious statement is obvious). Remember when Hickory High ran the ole picket fence when Coach got ejected and drunk Dennis Hopper pulled it out on the final play to win the game? Also, Bill Self had a specific press/trap attacking play that he only used to use late in close games and nowhere else so his opponent wouldn't be ready for it. It became legend and was copied by everybody, but the point is he only used it in a very specific scenario because four points, or even two, is not always negligible in basketball.
All of this is IMHO, of course.
February 14th, 2019 at 12:11 AM ^
Look, I don't expect Michigan to run through all their inbounds plays in a 20-pt game against Norfolk St. so yes, there are certain situations in which you can keep it bland.
But when you're losing on the road in a critical conference game is not one of those times.
And again, ways in which you beat a press are very different than running set plays out of bounds or in the half court.
I didn't watch enough of the game to know whether they only used one tactic to try to beat the press as you say. I have a hard time believing they'd fail multiple times (and I'm not sure that they did, per se) and not change anything up.
There are two different things that it sounds like happened:
1) Simpson/the team turned it over a few times. That could have been simple failure to execute. I did see Simpson dribble the ball off his foot in the last minute of the game. It doesn't matter how great your tactics are if the players don't execute them. I think the failure to execute is the issue here.
2) It sounds like people are upset with how slowly Michigan broke the press, even when they did. This is more about JB's extreme conservatism. The number 1 mandate for Michigan offenses is to not turn the ball over. They are a slow paced team precisely so they don't turn it over. So that's more philosophical than tactical. They turn it over once or twice and JB says, slow down and make sure you break it without turning it over.
February 14th, 2019 at 12:39 AM ^
I don't have stats on this, but from memory, I'd estimate that at least half of Michigan's possessions against the trap used a superficially similar attack, with three ball handlers advancing in a V formation while the 4 and 5 had already run down the court and were establishing position. I'm sure there were nuances, but I wasn't able to make them out.
Michigan consistently crossed the time line with about 21 seconds on the shot clock. Indeed, I was surprised that PSU didn't trap more aggressively; it seemed to me that they backed off and set up their half-court defense when the shot clock hit 22. I honestly thought that they could have caused a ten-second violation or a backcourt violation if they'd stayed with it a little bit longer.
The second half was better, in large part because PSU stopped making such a high percentage of their shots. I don't recall much -- if any -- trapping off of misses.
February 13th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
Silver lining... I hope we can keep this version of Charles Matthews.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
Yes, please. And may he rub off on Poole, while he's at it.
February 14th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
eeewww.
February 14th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
Poole’s girlfriend might have a problem with that
February 13th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^
I think we will be ok. I expect the boys to come out fired up and put a good hurting on Maryland on Saturday. If they do not, then there may be some concern. Last night was just weird on all levels from bad play to bad officiating.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
I agree. And they were on really short rest yesterday too. Beilein mentioned the short rest during his postgame presser and attributed some of the team's performance to being less rested and having less time to prepare than their opponent was.
Last night was a bad combo of playing on the road, bad refs, lost Beilein to an ejection halfway through the game, iffy shooting, etc. It's the doldrums of February - we will get a breeze soon.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:33 PM ^
In his postgame presser, Beilein was pretty sanguine about everything. He will do his talking to the league about what he perceived as poor officiating. I mean, here's the thing, for the last two years, offensive fouls have been a point of emphasis for the striped men.
They aren't calling as many charges, but they have gone postal on illegal screens. Talk about a blind moving pick that was missed. Simpson practically got a concussion on the play. Two other phantom calls were made on the perimeter against Michigan, and both had consequence, because they ultimately impacted margin of victory and near term player availability. Because the culprits, Brazdeikis and Matthews, both had to sit after each were saddled with their second foul of the first half, when the rest of the team by contrast, was whistled for one.
So, the striped guys were probably feeling pretty good about themselves, not calling a lot, and the foul totals were pretty even. And Teske who is guarding the highest usage guy on PSU had no foul called on him along with the guy he's covering, Stevens.
That's why they overreacted to Beilein at the table as the half ended, especially when he put up two fingers and called them out on the moving screen. First of all, it was a shock. Beilein never does this, second of all, in their minds, they thought they'd called a pretty even contest without a lot of fouls, which, was true.
So, Beilein will get the last word after the crew files its ejection report and goes over the contest with their assignor and his evaluation.
Michigan lost because of failed execution and poor shooting, period. But the two missed shooting foul calls, the uncalled illegal screen and double-dribble along with the shots associated with Beilein's ejection expanded the lead beyond the breaking point for a team that fought with valor until the end, but just shot so poorly, that it couldn't overcome the deficit the shitty officiating provided Penn State. It was just a bad Tuesday night in Feburary Big Ten play, but it might cost Michigan a lot more in the long run. Now, this team has more incentive and realization that on any given night, you can see your season go down the drain.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
Unfortunately, last night is who we are. Almost every game this season, we've held the opposite team below their season Point per Possession. When we don't, we don't make enough shots to win the game.
Michigan has a had a CAKE Big Ten schedule to date (10 of 13 games against the bottom half of the conference). We've beaten NW by 1 point, Minnesota by 1 point, and a loss to Penn State.
Things honestly get a little hairy if we lose to Maryland @ home on Saturday. I expect us to win, but if we lose that game, finishing 1-6 down the stretch becomes a real possibility.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
finishing 1-6 down the stretch becomes a real possibility
No it doesn't. There are some issues with the offense, but this is not rational.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
oh, honestly. "1-6 down the stretch" is beyond silly. but hey, reactions. congratulations.
February 13th, 2019 at 10:21 PM ^
Not disagreeing with the negs on this one, but also not trying to be a debbie downer. I just don't we've played teams with the talent of MSU & Maryland in awhile (Maryland has WAY more talent than Wisconsin, but much worse coaching). We've already proven we struggle on the road (PSU, NW, Iowa), so Minnesota is no gimme.
The only game I see as a 80+% win down the stretch is Nebraska. Everything else IS a potential loss.
February 13th, 2019 at 11:12 PM ^
Every game is a potential loss in the Big Ten, but that doesn't make 1-6 a realistic outcome. Bart Torvik provides a nice little tool on his site for simulating a range of outcomes; here's the Big Ten. He gives Michigan a 0.2% chance of going 0-6 the rest of the way, and a 2.0% chance of going 1-5, matching your number (obviously, the PSU game is a loss). This is approximately half the chance of a 6-0 finish (4.1%).
Michigan has also won road games at Villanova and Indiana. By 20+ points each! I don't care how bad the Hoosiers are this year, Michigan just doesn't win in Assembly Hall, and certainly not in that fashion. 6-0 is more realistic than 1-5, but the most realistic is 3-3 or 4-2. And that hasn't really changed, honestly; early in the season, KenPom had a 15-5 projection for Michigan; as of today, it's.. a 15-5 projection for Michigan.
February 13th, 2019 at 6:46 PM ^
I wish you were wrong-but you're not-negs aside. if we lose to Maryland at home, it gets very dicey, not just from how hard the schedule is but also from a confidence standpoint.. Our schedule has been unbalanced, with the toughest part at the end. The margin between winning and losing, on the road especially is very thin.
February 13th, 2019 at 7:38 PM ^
While you are correct that Michigan has had a very easy conference schedule, I think the easiest in the league so far, you are incorrect about 10 of 13 against the bottom half.
The top half includes 6th place Iowa and 7th place OSU (there are 14 teams now, not 10! Welcome to the 21st century B1G) so Michigan has played 9 of 14 games against the bottom half. They finish with 4 of 6 against the top half (MSU and Maryland).
Michigan won't lose at home to Maryland. I have very high confidence in that.
February 13th, 2019 at 11:16 PM ^
KenPom includes conference SoS to date on the conference page, and you're correct; Michigan has played the weakest schedule so far, with a value of +14.84. Purdue has played the most difficult, at +18.96. MSU is 11th, with +17.20. (The #13 schedule is +16.54; Michigan has played a way easier schedule than anyone else).
For context -- these numbers are the AdjEM of a team that would be expected to go .500 against that schedule. So, if you took a team with a +14.84 on KenPom -- St. Mary's is closest; Syracuse and Indiana are right behind -- you'd expect that team to be 7-7 with Michigan's schedule.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
I muted the game in the Second Half because some guy/kid(?) was sitting behind the BTN mics and screaming and driving me nails-on-chalkboard crazy.
Ref should have walked away from Beilein at half. Have no idea what Beilein said, but guessing it was PG-13 at worst. Even if -gasp- Beilein dropped an f-bomb - BFD, let it go, man.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:08 PM ^
Ha! I felt the same way and just posted right after you. Mic placement was BAD. Yes, I had bad thoughts about what I wanted to do to that dude too....
February 13th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
While we're taking about stuff that frustrated us from the game, was anyone else annoyed by the placement of the crowd microphone? Put it right near a dude who had to yell "ooooooooooh" the entire time Michigan had the ball.
Don't know if it's because the place was so empty that they really picked up that one guy really clearly, but man it grated on me.
February 13th, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^
Yup. I noticed. PSU had like 12 students attending the game and BTN decides to stick a crowd noise mic on his lapel. That was awful.
February 13th, 2019 at 9:49 PM ^
That was one guy? The voice was so grating it sounded like multiple voices from people having root canals without anesthetic.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
I blame this result on the guy who asked how many games Michigan could lose consecutively to end the regular season/conference tournament and still make the NCAA Tournament.
February 13th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
Michigan needs to attack that press. We sit back passively and work our way across and then try to run offense with 15 seconds on the clock. We should be attacking it to initiate offense, not just get the ball over half court.
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