We might be #4 now but everybody needs to keep rooting for Alabama cause the Bowl Committee proved last night they REALLY want two SEC teams in the final four
The number one takeaway from last night's ranking reveal was that the bowl committee REALLY wants to see two SEC in the final four and is manipulating the hell out of the rankings to give themselves every chance make that happen. By placing Georgia at #5 they now have a clear path to the final four IF they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. And if anybody thinks a one-loss Alabama team is getting left out of the dance this year they are nuts, especially when the talking heads are currently describing them as one of the best teams in college football history and after what we saw them do last night.
When the committee only dropped Kentucky two slots after losing badly to Georgia and even more unbelievably kept a two loss LSU at #7 ahead of West Virginia, Washington State and OSU, they are setting the stage for only moving Alabama down a couple of slots should they lose to Georgia in the title game. If that happens and both Clemson & Notre Dame win out the final four will look like this IMO (remember they only dropped Kentucky two slots after getting beat by 17 at home last week and only dropped LSU four spots after getting shut out at home)
1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Notre Dame
We need Alabama to win out or either Clemson or Notre Dame to lose for us to be assured of getting in. Those that say if we just win out we'll be fine are missing the elephant in the room IMO - that when a one loss Kentucky team ranked 9th lost to Georgia team ranked 6th they only dropped two slots cause it was such a "good loss". Does anybody here really believe that if #1 ranked Alabama somehow loses to a Georgia team ranked 5th they'll drop Alabama MORE than they dropped Kentucky losing to Georgia?
Last night one of our fellow posters PapabearBlue had a perfect post IMO on what's going on and is worth a read if you missed it:
If you look at the SEC's wins/losses what is happening is a giant pile of bullshit.
The SEC has no good wins, in fact they have zero non-con wins against ranked opponents. They've all beaten each other. It's a giant circle jerk of SEC love and transitive bullshit. I'm not gonna pull up the long diatribe I typed the other day but essentially every SEC team being propped up because they beat a team who beat a team who beat them. Every one of those teams is getting good credit for their own losses.
beats 2 who beats 3 who beats 1. Well, obviously 1 must be pretty good because they beat 2 and 2 beat 3 and 3 was good enough to beat 1.
It makes no fucking sense, it's an SEC slob job. AND it's the exact reason why preseason rankings are fucking cancer.
If Georgia isn't ranked #3 preseason then NONE of this matters.
But NO, after Georgia loses to LSU everyone just assumes LSU should be number 3, after they had just lost to a 6-3 Florida who has just now lost to 4-4 Florida. Why not do the sensible thing and assume that Georgia was over-ranked as fuck like what happens to every other conference?
Oh, yeah. SEC slob jobs.
It's fucking corrupt.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Notre Dame is the obvious pretender.
They played us and beat us in the first game. Congratulations to them. But anyone that thinks they are one of the 4 best teams in the country is kidding themselves.
They will be utterly humiliated should they make the playoff.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
I am completely by myself here, but I honestly don't think ND runs the table.
I see them stumbling in 1 of the last 2, Syracuse or USC. Usc is not good at all, but they have talent there to pull off a rivalry upset. And Syracuse is known for that spoiler role
November 7th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I was gonna say, ND had problems with Northwestern, and Syracuse isn't a joke this year. ND has a good chance of going undefeated, but that chance is closer to 60% than 90%.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^
538 actually puts their chances of winning out at 49%, which surprised me how low that is. I would have thought something like 60% like you proposed.
But they have two games away from home against not terrible teams. Definitely not a foregone conclusion that they win out.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
Syracuse will take care of ND next week. And then the CFP will breathe a sigh of fresh air because they can take Alabama regardless of if they win the SEC.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
"Syracuse will take care of ND next week."
I wouldn't put a lot of money on that. If the game were being played at Syracuse, there'd be a small chance the Orange could pull it off. With the game being played in NYC, the crowd will have lots of ND fans so there's no field advantage for Syracuse.
The best chance for a ND loss is at USC. It's not likely, but it's a true road game.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:44 AM ^
Unfortunately, ND is undefeated. They beat us. Yes, in the first game, but they still beat us. They should be ranked above us with an undefeated record. If they lose to Syracuse or USC, then they deserve to drop significantly. Until then, we need to win out and prove we belong (which we do). No ifs, ands, or buts. Winning out keeps us in the playoffs. Plain and simple.....just win the whole frickin' thing.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
By this logic, UCF should be in the playoff.
Notre Dame's schedule is Michigan and scrubs.
- Michigan
- Ball State (3-7, 5th in the MAC West)
- Vanderbilt (4-5, tied for 5th / last in the SEC East)
- Wake Forest (4-5, 6th in the ACC Atlantic)
- Stanford (5-4, tied for 3rd in the Pac-12 North)
- Virginia Tech (4-4, 3rd in the ACC Coastal)
- Pitt (5-4, 1st in the ACC Coastal)
- Navy (2-7, tied for 5th / last in the AAC West)
- Northwestern (5-4, 1st in the Big Ten West)
- Florida State (4-5, 5th in the ACC Atlantic)
- Syracuse (7-2, 3rd in the ACC Atlantic)
- USC (5-4, tied for 1st in the Pac-12 South)
Now, I'm not saying they didn't try to schedule above average -- there are only three teams in there that they knew would be garbage, plus the ACC teams that they have to schedule per their contract. But the fact of the matter is, there are two ranked teams on that list, and one of them is Syracuse.
Tell me why a 12-1 Michigan team with wins over OSU, MSU, and PSU doesn't have a more deserving résumé than Notre Dame?
November 7th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
Because Notre Dame beat 12-1 Michigan.
You can’t be serious.
That win is more impressive than any of our wins.
It’s also a knock on us.
And, of course, a really good way to determine which is the better team is by having the teams play and keeping score.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
I'm 100% serious.
And, of course, a really good way to determine which is the better team is by having the teams play and keeping score.
Actually, that's a pretty terrible way to determine which is the better team. Do you really believe that Purdue is better than OSU and than Eastern is better than Purdue? Do you really believe that Northwestern is better than MSU and that Akron is better than Northwestern?
Sometimes stuff happens. To hang your hat on a Notre Dame victory, in South Bend, the first week of the season, as "proof" that Notre Dame is better than Michigan is to misunderstand statistics and probability.
The S&P+ postgame box score gave Michigan a 57.5% win probability for that game. If anything, that game showed there was a 57.5% chance that Michigan is a better team than Notre Dame, not a 100% chance that Notre Dame is a better team than Michigan.
I heard on WTKA the other day that an offshore sports book put up hypothetical semifinal lines involving the four playoff teams. Michigan would be a 7 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to them.
Michigan is ahead of Notre Dame in S&P+, Massey, Sagarin, FPI, and FEI. The only well-known system I can find where Notre Dame is ahed of Michigan is Colley, and the polls, because durr durr zero losses.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
durr durr 0 losses?! YES 0 LOSSES! That's the whole fucking point, to play and win. Yes that matters more than what fancy statistic rankings say. Some of you are so statistic driven and like to ignore the real, physical-world product(s). Stats are great, they help tell the story. They are not the story.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
No, 0 losses, because not all schedules are created equally, and because teams create their own damned schedules. Also, in case you're not aware, UCF has zero losses, but they're not in the playoff, because durr durr zero losses apparently only applies sometimes.
This maniacal focus on losses gives us The Citadel at Alabama and SMU at Michigan.
The final score is one statistic. By shutting your eyes and ignoring all other information, you're willfully blinding yourself. And if you really think Notre Dame is better than Michigan, you don't watch football.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
OK - a head to head game is not a "terrible" way to determine who is better. Come on. That's kind of how the playoffs work.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
It is absolutely a terrible way to determine who's better. Best of 9? Sure, maybe. Single-elimination? Heck no.
Having a playoff isn't about determining the best team; it's about determining a champion.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
It’s not me that doesn’t understand statistics in this case. You seem to have lost the forest for the trees. Those models (S&P, etc.) are an effort to quantitatively decide what’s happened and what is likely to happen.
But are you really prepared to argue that S&P is better indicator of the quality of football teams than actual football games? I feel like this is a satire of firejoemorgan.com and you’re arguing that statistical modeling should just replace the actual sport.
For a sophisticated statistician, you sure went right to the anecdotal evidence to straw man me into some untenable positions. Meanwhike, you just said, “Actually, [playing football games are] a pretty terrible way to determine which is the better team.”
Your position is bad. It is possible, maybe likely, that we are better than ND. But they have the best piece of evidence, an actual game of competitive football, whereas we have statistical models and transitive properties.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
ND is undefeated. They beat us.
Math is easy.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
This is the most important thing to remember in this discussion...The committee has the job of putting the four BEST teams in the playoff. Record helps determine the 4 best teams but is not the ultimate...just ask last year's undefeated "National Champions" from a school in Florida.
It is very possible that the committee determines that at this juncture Michigan is a better team than Notre Dame and we jump ahead of them (after the Big Ten Championship). In this scenario, THEY would be on the outside looking in if two SEC teams made it.
In all reality, they SHOULD have to play Clemson in the ACC Championship game anyway, in which they would lose handily and the debate would be over.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^
Yeah, Klatt was basically saying the same thing. As much as I hate to root for Bama, if they shit the bed against GA we could be in trouble. Although, complete devil's advocate - do we think we really have a team that could win it all this year? Defense I think we're there. Offense, I'm not sure right now. Still a few weeks to go but, hypothetically - would we prefer to make the CFP, potentially get housed by Bama, or go to the Rose Bowl or some other high level NY6 bowl game and win? I'd actually prefer the NY6 bowl game and a win in that scenario.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
A Rose Bowl is just a consolation prize because you couldn't get into the whole thing. What do you think looks more impressive to a recruit? Making the final four with a chance at a national championship or not getting there at all? Give me the chance at a title any day.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
Getting housed by Bama on national TV would be impressive to a recruit? OK.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
we would not get "housed" by bama
November 7th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Agree, I think our D would hang with them and if we can mix in a few more slants and slot-ninja plays, I think we'd be competitive. Personally, I want a shot at Alabama for all the marbles, but I'll take them in first round also, and then maybe a "revenge tour" shot at ND!!
If it happens and the line is anywhere north of 10, think we'd be a good bet.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
A hypothetical situation is one that's filled with conjecture, it allows people to think of some "possible" outcomes. One, "possible" outcome is that we get into the CFP and get housed by Bama. I said, about 3-4 times in my post, possible, hypothetical... This is a pretend scenario. So, now that we have that out of the way.. would you rather...
A: Lose to Bama 35-3. Or,
B: Win the Rose Bowl
I, in this hypothetical scenario, would prefer to win the Rose Bowl.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Would you rather lose to Alabama 35-3 or lose to UCF in the Rose Bowl 17-10?
Here's another way to look at the scenario without bullshit negative assumptions.
Would you rather Michigan play a CFP game against Alabama or play UCF in the Consolation Prize Rose Bowl?
Second question, what's the best way for Michigan to get into the Consolation Prize Rose Bowl, losing the B1G Championship game, or Shea Patterson doing a tearful post championship plea to the CFP Committee to send Michigan to the Rose Bowl to prove the January 1 bowl games are not consolation prizes for not getting into the playoffs?
November 8th, 2018 at 6:50 PM ^
Hail Yes! I'd rather play in the CFP and lose to Bama.
That would mean that we won out, beat OSU, won the B1G East, and won the B1G Championship game. Including B1G Champs
I am tired of all the crap from OSU that we haven't won in over 6 years, Urban is some sort of unbeatable god or Harbaugh hasn't won anything.
So YES! I'd rather get there even if it means I lose to Bama.
However, if we're there, ...there's always the chance that we win!!
November 7th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
It must take a heck of a lot for you to get rid of your BPONE. If Michigan makes the playoffs, we will get talked about for a month straight on all the national media outlets. That will ring loud in all recruits ears considering coming to Michigan. Also, if Michigan makes it, this will be our first time ever on this stage. The media will eat that up which would be another positive for recruiting.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
We all thought the same thing about OSU when they played Bama, what happened then?
November 7th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
A hypothetical situation is one that's filled with conjecture, it allows people to think of some "possible" outcomes. One, "possible" outcome is that we get into the CFP and get housed by Bama. I said, about 3-4 times in my post, possible, hypothetical... This is a pretend scenario. So, now that we have that out of the way.. would you rather...
A: Lose to Bama 35-3. Or,
B: Win the Rose Bowl
I, in this hypothetical scenario, would prefer to win the Rose Bowl.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
You are basing Bama housing Michigan on what? I'm guessing them embarrassing an incredibly overrated LSU team. That LSU team has the 74th ranked offensive s&p+ ranking. So, shutting them out should not be looked at as something that proves they completely shut down Michigan's 24th ranked s&p+ offense.
Bama's offense is their best under saban. However, Michigan's defense has a shot at being a top 5 defense of the s&p+ era, while playing 4 top 30 offenses.
Not to say Michigan would win but the game would not be a blowout.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
A hypothetical situation is one that's filled with conjecture, it allows people to think of some "possible" outcomes. One, "possible" outcome is that we get into the CFP and get housed by Bama. I said, about 3-4 times in my post, possible, hypothetical... This is a pretend scenario. So, now that we have that out of the way.. would you rather...
A: Lose to Bama 35-3. Or,
B: Win the Rose Bowl
I, in this hypothetical scenario, would prefer to win the Rose Bowl.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
A Rose Bowl is just a consolation prize
Man, look at what you just said. Fuck college football these days. Fuck it to hell.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Yep, 'member when all those bowl games actually meant something. A bit of a shame.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
The Rose Bowl died in 2006, when Michigan played OSU to avoid it.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Steel sharpens steel. If the goal is to compete for national championships, then you want to get into the playoffs. Better to test your coaching and players against the toughest competition and see where you still need to improve.
It would hurt to lose in the playoff, of course, and it would be great to win the Rose Bowl, but either scenario reflects a pretty darn good season.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Yes, I do. I think we are one of the best teams that have a chance of knocking Bama off,,,,
If this team gets in, they will bring havoc........I guarantee it
November 7th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
i agree with this. i'm not worried about bama losing the sec championship game, and i really think it will be tough for any team to beat them in the CFP. they probably win out, they are a juggernaut, it's sad but true.
but Michigan's D is so good that we are one team that might have a chance and i would love to see them get a shot at Bama too. Our defense has shut down some productive teams this year both in the air and on the ground. Beat 3 ranked opponents, may end up with 4, kept it close with ND, it's a legit shot that they put the hurt on bama too. Michigan's style makes tough opponents look not so tough. After playing Michigan, people say, "maybe MSU/PSU/Wisc aren't as good as we thought." In the worst case, this negatively affects the committee's opinion the B1G and Michigan's strength of schedule/win quality. But you have to think the committee will pick up on this and recognize Michigan's style plays a part in the optics of the wins.
Even if there's an SEC bias, which there certainly is, picking a 1-loss non-conf champ Bama over a 1-loss B1G champ Michigan would be riots in the streets, when the losses would be roughly equivalent (each team losing to another playoff team). It would be the end of the 4-team CFP format. (actually, maybe this is what the committee wants - to make an example out of a deserving team to justify a CFP expansion and associated $$$$. sheeeeeeeiitttt sorry Michigan).
anyway, too many thoughts in one reply, but i think 1. would love to see UM's D get a shot at Alabama and 2. Hard for me to see Michigan getting left out with their resume in favor of a conference runner-up with same record
November 7th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Dude, why would we settle for something less than a shot at a championship. Winning the CFP championship is the goal of this team. Our team this year is as good as it has been for a long time. Also, how many times have we heard that a team is the greatest team ever in college football to then see them not win the championship? It happens all the time.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Dude, I did mention it was a hypothetical.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Losing in the elite eight > losing in the National Championship? 100% of recruits and current players would disagree.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
Some people's infatuation with the Rose Bowl on this board is baffling.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
Is it? There are obviously a lot of 30-50 year old posters who grew up as the Rose Bowl being the big prize for winning the Big (actual) 10.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Honestly I wouldn't mind going back to the old model. The BCS and playoff have made the news cycle every damn year be about which conference is better. I. Just. Don't. Care. It is so transparent that the media outlets support and defend whichever conference they are under contract with. Before the BCS, you know what mattered? Winning the games you actually played. Not a bunch of BS media conjecture, committees, etc
November 7th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
You bring up an interesting point. What would the BCS do this year is Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are all undefeated? I suppose that Alabama and Clemson would play for the NC but I suspect that Notre Dame's win over Michigan would be better than anything on Clemson's resume.
I think that the four team playoff is better than the two team BCS.....and eight teams would be even better.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
Before the BCS, you know what mattered? Winning the games you actually played. Not a bunch of media conjecture, committees, etc
I understand what you're saying, but this is just flatly untrue. There was tons of conjecture, debate, all that. It was worse, actually, because that debate settled the national championship in a mythical poll instead of on the field.
There's always debate and argument. The timing and the relevant deciders shift around a bit from time to time, but it still winds up being an argument. With the playoff, at least, there's a chance for a handful of the best teams to settle things on the field.
In the old system Michigan would be on track to play Washington State in the Rose Bowl, while Bama would go to the Sugar Bowl (again) and play Notre Dame. Oklahoma would go to the Rose Bowl and Clemson would go to the Citrus Bowl, where they would play the loser of the SEC championship game.
BTW these bowl pairings would already be in motion. Notre Dame would be committed to the Sugar Bowl by now. Teams used to accept bids before the season was over, you know.
The net result is that we would finish the postseason with no clarity on who is better and there would be a massive debate about it, following which Alabama would win their umpteenth consecutive national title. There would be a lot of handwringing over whether or not Clemson could hang with Bama if they played (since in this system they never play each other in a bowl game) and Big 12 fans would feel ripped off that they're never in the conversation.
It's better now.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
Why are we better off without that debate? At least then the debate mattered. Now it's stupid since we'll eventually find out anyway and the only point to the debate is to fill dead air so that all the junkies can have something to listen to.
Also, your bowls are off. Oklahoma wouldn't go the Rose, they'd probably go to the Sugar to play Alabama or the Orange to play Clemson (not the Citrus.)
November 7th, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^
I'm 33, the Rose Bowl hasn't been the target destination for over a decade.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
At what point in the future would you want to face Bama or Clemson or whatever iteration of such powerhouses exist out there? At what point do you say WE are a powerhouse and thus need to compete at the highest level?
Alabama has studs across the board and elite playmakers at the skill positions, but so does Michigan. Of course it doesn't matter at some level what the fans think, but I would love to see Michigan take on Bama. My best guess is that the players would love this opportunity also.
It makes no sense at all to hope for a non-playoff bowl game at this point. If Michigan does go to the Rose Bowl, it would mean we were either massively screwed over, or that we lost to OSU/whomever we play in the conference championship. That would look far worse to a recruit than a loss to Bama.
And we would NOT get "housed" by them.
November 7th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
When the offense is a bit better. Man, you guys didn't read my post did you? In a hypothetical situation, I would prefer to NOT go to the CFP if it meant we get housed by bama. Didn't say we WOULD, but I would consider it a high probability.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
You are picking and choosing scenarios to support your argument though. Sure if I had to pick from getting our asses kicked 35-3 in the playoff or beat Wazzu in the Rose Bowl 45-3, I would probably pick the Rose Bowl. Seems how we can't see the future though, you want to make the playoffs and have a chance at the National Championship 10 times out of 10. I don't care who you play. Any given day you can beat any team. What happens if Tua gets hurt in the 1st quarter when we play them? Anything can happen.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
That was my point, though. Devil's advocate; if we do get left out of the CFP the silver lining is it's possible we could've gotten run off the field by Bama and instead, may win a nice bowl game instead. Obviously, I failed to communicate this point properly and was speaking in hypotheticals