UM does not play well on the road - why?
I have turned to the Board many times to help me understand things. Thanks to many.
I keep reading that Michigan does not play well on the road. The metrics back that up. Why is this? Growing up, every football player has home and away games. All of the coaches have coached home and away games. It's not new concept. I can understand why players don't perform well when they are used to artificial turf and then have to play on grass - but I don't get the away game stuff. I would like to hear opinions on why Michigan is road challenged.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
Beat me by 2 minutes.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
beat meat
October 1st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
It's hard.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
It's the same explanation for why the so called Home Field Advantage.
1. Crowd levels increase when you have the ball.
2. Travel fatigue
3. Homefield advantage... Crowds booing refs actually affect how plays are called.
All sorts of things.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
In the case of Northwestern, there is also the issue of adjusting to a different playing surface. It seems like we always have a lot of guys slipping and falling on that field when we play there. It wouldn't shock me if Fitzgerald lets the field go ragged before a big game.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
Michigan definitely seems to struggle with footing on natural grass playing surfaces.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
It varies. Last season road losses were because we weren’t very good. A couple years ago @OSU we turned it over too much and it kept the game close. @Iowa is was piss poor vanilla play calling. @utah, first game, new qb, turnovers. @Nd this season, horrible start by defense, poor execution and play calling on offense. That pretty much sums up most, if not all road losses.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^
You know, it doesn't seem like it is the entire game so much, but in several games, it seems as if the first quarter or sometimes the first half on the road is where we dig this hole that we then must climb out of. Considering Harbaugh is 10-6 on the road, I believe, we've done OK just based on record, but in the moment, the starts on the road sometimes seem slow to the point of being glacial.
Now, there are counterexamples to this - we have played some good games on the road, I believe, but the times where we have not tend to stand out.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
How about the fact that opponents hardly EVER turn the ball over against us?
Look what happened to Wisconsin when they played in Iowa City last week. And look what happened to OSU when they traveled to TCU. Heck, Saturday night at Penn State, OSU is down 13-0 before halftime, Urban Meyer's head looks like it wants to explode and then PSU loses a fumble inside their own 20, essentially handing OSU a gift touchdown on a platter when they desperately needed it.
I'm extra bitter when that luck happens to OSU because it's the equivalent of seeing a millionaire win the lottery...but you never see these scenarios with Michigan in a close game. Once in a blue moon will someone throw an interception but nobody loses fumbles against us. (Can we really count Nebraska? That game was already over.)
I'd really like to cash in on other team's mistakes like everyone else does. But we're given the opportunity about 5% of the time.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
PSU coughed up a fumble inside their 30 that Frank Clark returned to the house in the 2013 game at Beaver Stadium where Michigan was down 21-10 at the half.
Of course Michigan lost that game in terrible/stupid fashion so I have no idea why I replied.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
We do seem to force a really low number of fumbles for some reason. With the number of sacks we get, you'd think we'd get more strips than we do. Maybe it's random and we'll force four next game.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Let's wait a few weeks and cash in our fumble luck on October 20th.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:23 PM ^
We will need it then too because if any team can put the ball on the ground and get it to bounce their way nearly 100% of the time, it’s friggin Sparty.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
I think with ND, we have used up our quota of "luck in close games" for awhile now. I distinctly remember UTL games where RB fumbles, Denard picks it up, walks in the endzone, and ND has multiple turnovers or for some reason leaves Jeremy Gallon uncovered in the most obvious passing situation in the history of ever.
So now, ND has to have it's turn where they have all the luck and play perfectly, and we make all the game-crushing mistakes.
Hopefully it's even now.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:19 PM ^
ND has to have its turn...you're adorable. ND has been given lucky breaks for the majority of their history. Long before UTL was ever played.
October 1st, 2018 at 6:32 PM ^
Aw gee thanks guy!
But good point, to hell with them.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^
Michigan's had surefire would-have-been-huge interceptions clank off of or go right through a DB's hands in both last year's OSU game and this year's ND game. There have been chances that the team didn't capitalize on.
October 1st, 2018 at 8:21 PM ^
Whenever a ball clanked off a dbs hands, my dad would inevitably turn to me and say, "maybe there is a reason why he is on defense."
October 1st, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
Obviously Michigan has been placed under a curse by nefarious forces and has been mystically thwarted on the road for 20 years. It's the only explanation that makes sense.
October 1st, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
Just on the road?
October 1st, 2018 at 7:57 PM ^
We have counterspells in Ann Arbor that keep the demons out
October 1st, 2018 at 8:22 PM ^
Nefarious Eduardo?
October 1st, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^
By the time players are seniors, like Winovich, play on the road improves. Senior laden teams do better on the road. We still have a bunch of young guys that need more road experience. They look nervous to start games. That will improve over time. This group will be road warriors by November. Go Blue !!!
October 1st, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
Two road games this year. Two games we started slow on defense and fell behind early. In all fairness the offense's starts haven't been much better. Seems like the D needs to get burned three to four times before D. Brown flips the DOMINATE switch to the ON position. I have no earthly clue why this happens but I am hoping it goes away in time for our next road opponent.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
No idea, but it's really frustrating how much they play like ass on the road.
October 1st, 2018 at 4:44 PM ^
Would be an interesting study to conduct: home field advantage analysis. Does hypothesis hold? (probably) and away game record sucks for EVERY team. If so, WHAT are the factors? and then systematically address those? Since this team (allegedly) has analysts that use data analysis, why not this???
October 1st, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
"keep reading that Michigan does not play well on the road. The metrics back that up. Why is this?"
We're not good enough?
October 1st, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^
It's not a Michigan-only thing. Playing on the road is hard for the vast majority of teams.
Now, why do they come out as flat as they've looked vs. ND and NW...that I don't know. It's still only happened two times, so we're not sure if it's a pattern or just one of those things. It could even be the case that it happened at NW because Michigan players were not mentally "over" how the ND game started, and the next game on the road was going to bring out some of those issues again. They won this time though, so hopefully it was just a mental hurdle that they had to overcome as a team and now it won't happen again like that. Hopefully.
October 2nd, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^
Everyone is pointing out that Michigan isn't quite as bad on the road as it seems because they've managed to win some of those ugly ones and were got screwed out of a few others. But, I'm with you - they looked flat as hell in their two road games so far and it cost them a lot of points and aggravation. There's no excuse for that now. They should have enough talent to compete with anyone this year and they can't afford to hemorrhage points away on the road just because they're not psyched up and focused to play. That is an unforced mental error.
I know this sounds stupidly simplistic, but it seems to me that if Harbaugh's Michigan teams play well, they will win. Even if they don't play well, they still manage to win a lot of the time. The Orange Bowl vs Florida State and that year's OSU game may be the last time this team played a good game but managed to lose (and even those games were characterized by a few massive mistakes). Last year vs State, Wisconsin and Ohio State and this year vs ND, Michigan looked like SHIT but still found themselves close late into the game or even in position to win.. This is a phenomenon that doesn't seem to affect other teams out there.
So basically, I just want them to play well. If they somehow drop a game despite playing an excellent game, I'll be shocked.
(NOTE: I know what you're thinking, don't all teams usually win if they play well? Yes, that's true but every week in college football there is a team that puts up a loss despite playing well, falling victim to bad luck, poor officiating or another team that just played slightly better).
October 1st, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
I think we need to stay at a Holiday Inn the night before
October 1st, 2018 at 5:14 PM ^
Against the spread, Michigan is 6-9-1 in road games under Harbaugh.
Now, that's not a perfect metric by which to judge things. But that record is not THAT far below .500.
By this metric, U-M doesn't seem to be serial under-achievers (vs. public perception) in road games under JH.
2015: 2-3. W PSU, Maryland L Utah, Indiana, Minnesota.
2016: 2-2. W OSU, Rutgers L Iowa, MSU
2017: 2-2-1. W Purdue, Maryland L Wisconsin, PSU T Indiana
2018: 0-2. L Northwestern, ND.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
Michigan clearly does not start games with the sense of urgency that its lesser opponents do. This is intensified on the road, where their opponents feel more comfortable and confident. We saw how this same dynamic aided Michigan in last year's OSU game.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^
probably because of something you did.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
Attitude. plain and simple
October 1st, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^
Is this a conclusion after 2 away games?
October 1st, 2018 at 8:26 PM ^
No. This is a conclusion after one road game that has recently been confirmed by a poor quarter.
October 2nd, 2018 at 1:45 AM ^
For me it’s confirmed by pretty crappy all-around play in the first quarter / half in big games. I’m not trying to entertain some scientific study; rather, I encourage people to open their eyes and use common sense. I don’t know what “metric” qualifies for common sense, but if you are still attempting to justify last week (and the myriad important games since Harbaugh took over), I don’t know what to tell you. Outside of a few OSU games that we lost, we looke completely lost and unprepared.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^
I just think it’s just hard to win on the road. All teams struggle away.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:33 PM ^
Michigan is 10-6 on the road since Harbaugh arrived. Losses were at OSU, at Utah, at Notre Dame, at Wisconsin, at PSU and at Iowa. That doesn't feel like a bad road record actually if you consider that true road games are almost always against in-conference opponents or good non-conference opponents.
Now, Wisconsin has an amazing road record over the last few years but the bulk of that is vs barely bowl eligible or worse B10 West teams. This year they have to play in Ann Arbor and at Penn State, so we'll see how they do in those games.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
It's a mix of factors:
1) Opposing crowd adversity, may impact offensive communication.
2) Officiating in all sports is skewed to the home team for reasons...
3) Some coaches, and I would include Harbaugh in this, have more conservative offensive game plans on the road (probably having to do with #1 above).
There may be a slight energy advantage for the home team, but honestly a bad call here, a miscommunication leading to a mistake there, and you have a game where little things add up favoring the home team a little more.
My biggest frustration with this year's Michigan team is that they seem sluggish to start. In both road games and against SMU it seems like they take forever to get to a sense of urgency. Other than that they've played probably 3-4 bad quarters the whole year and dominated other than that. Harbaugh needs to find ways to get off to quicker starts, whether that's a pre-game routine, a scripted set of plays that he doesn't sit on, or something else or all of the above.
October 1st, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
Issue #1: We struggle to run the ball against solid defenses. The extra adrenaline for the home defense makes it that much more difficult. Without a running game and play action, Harbaugh’s offense can grind to a halt. Most offenses struggle without running but it really puts the brakes on JH’s.
October 1st, 2018 at 6:04 PM ^
This makes the most sense to me.
October 1st, 2018 at 6:41 PM ^
Michigan fans are really dumb and obnoxious - why?
October 1st, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^
Simple. Harbaugh has clenched on the road play calling wise (northwestern not part of sample). Overly conservative short passing game at expense of intermediate-deep. Speed up # of offensive possessions as well
i.e. coach like you are at home and you'll be ok.
October 1st, 2018 at 7:01 PM ^
The answer seems pretty obvious to me.. the team lacks energy and often comes out flat.. watch the team when the come out of the the tunnel (@nd especially). No energy, no emotion. My dad called it before the game started “look how lifeless they look.” It falls on the coaches to get the team mentally ready and, to me it doesn’t seem like we come out focused. Just my two cents.
October 1st, 2018 at 8:49 PM ^
I was going to add this point to my original post but I was afraid of playing too much feelings-ball. I totally agree with your assessment.
October 1st, 2018 at 7:05 PM ^
Brady Hoke used up every ounce of luck this program might have for that 2011 season. Program is cursed. Team always plays tight and Harbaugh doesn’t do anything to take advantage of the talent on offense. Team has to overcome biased referees and crappy coaching just to win games. Not a formula for success.
October 1st, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^
I just looked at the 1st quarter vs the other quarters under Harbaugh
On the road
1st Quarter: 13.75 ppg / 16.75 ppg against
2nd -4th Quarter: 32.9 ppg / 21.1 ppg against
At Home vs Power 5 and BYU:
1st Quarter: 33.2 ppg / 10.6 ppg against
2nd - 4th Quarter: 31 ppg /14.5 ppg against.
Neutral Site (sample size =4)
1st Quarter: 26 ppg / 27 ppg against
2nd - 4th Quarter: 33 ppg / 18.7 ppg against
After the 1st Quarter, Michigan is relatively invariant on location scoring ~33 points per game. The question is why are we getting such poor starts on the road?
October 1st, 2018 at 8:02 PM ^
That does appear to be statistically significant.