Bill Connelly writes about our schedule

Submitted by mgogobermouch on September 25th, 2018 at 12:13 PM

Bill Connelly (guy behind S&P+) has an advanced stats look at our upcoming schedule. Probably no great surprises for anyone in this board, but still worth a glance. 

TLDR: Northwestern has a strong run defense and a decent pass rush — it’ll be a good test of our o-lines improvement. And Wisconsin has quietly put together the 12th best offense in the country. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/24/17895322/michigan-football-2018-jim-harbaugh-rivals

cbutter

September 25th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

I would say anything going back further than 5 years really has no relevance to what is going on today. I just simply avoid any arguing or debating with rival fan bases unless we have won, and currently I would not want to try to because we really don't have a leg to stand on. 

The exception to this would be having a discussion or argument about something like the Spartan Bob game in 2001. It clearly has no impact on the rivalry today and the potential outcome of the game in October, but it can be fun to discuss.

For a future example, you can always look back on the 2016 spot against Ohio State and argue that, but 10 years from now, that spot will not have an impact on the trajectory of the program at that time (in 2028). That probably had an impact on the trajectory going into 2017, this year and a few years to come. A win at OSU at the time in 2016 would have been huge for this program and probably been a springboard into something much greater, but in 2028, that spot really will not have mattered IMO.

Hopefully this makes sense, as I know that it is an example of something 10 years from now.

Joined: 05/05/2017

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UM Fan from Sydney

September 25th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^

Thank you.

This is what is always lost to MSU fans. They boast about Dantonio's record against UM. We then point to the two most recent wins against them, but they say those were bad MSU teams. OK...cuz RR and Hoke had GREAT teams...outside of 2011, of course.

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BornInAA

September 25th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^

S&P+ and FPI are all cute and such but this is why we actually play the games. They also don't count special teams which can be huge in college football - like bobbled punts and kickoffs returned for TDs and field goal misses. Also they don't count muffed penalties like phantom interference, phantom goal line crosses, tipped TD catches, 1st downs made by buttocks and not the ball and all the other weird crap that happens to Michigan in rival games.

Joined: 11/21/2009

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1VaBlue1

September 25th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

Feel free to write an unbiased algorithm (as much as you can make anything unbiased) that will sort those stats and give us some meaningful metrics.  I, for one, would LOVE to see them!

I mean, wouldn't be great to actually quantify the 2016 OSU game in terms of officiating fairness metrics?  That would be awesome...

Joined: 01/31/2016

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Newton Gimmick

September 25th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^

I can't think there's any way to actually project that kind of luck -- only to see it in retrospect.  What I do like is the "2nd-order wins" stat: basically, how many wins a team should have based on all statistical factors, vs how many they actually have.  

Comparing Michigan vs. Notre Dame, for instance, shows that the result of that game had much more to do with it being a typical South Bend shitshow of flags and inexplicable broken plays than it had to do with Michigan being 'dominated' per Hot Take dispensers.

Of course, part of what Harbaugh needs to do is turn those efficiency numbers into close wins against good teams instead of close losses.  The numbers seem to promise that it's only a matter of time.

2ndO.png

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

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BornInAA

September 25th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^

The more heavy of a rival game and the closer the score, the more likely one crazy/dumb play or penalty throws the whole game. This is why Auburn beats Alabama every other year. According to S&P+ and FPI, Alabama should never lose a game - ever. Iowa shouldn't be able to spoil a ranked opponent every year (watch out PSU! trap game before playing us!). POINT IS: S&P+ has nothing to do actual Ws and Ls.

 

Joined: 11/21/2009

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maize-blue

September 25th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^

I'm probably in the minority but after watching Saturday night's game Wisconsin didn't come across as the juggernaut that some have made them out to be. I think they were a tick or two better last season.

Their run defense is stout but they look very average to below average in the passing game. I believe our receivers outclass their defenders in that area. I don't know if Iowa has a good pass game but they were effective and thought they could've had their way if they had dedicated to the pass, but they are limited because of Kirk Ferentz.

Wisconsin's most explosive offensive play is a play action pass to the TE for maybe 15-20 yards. The #1 deciding factor in the game will be if the UM defensive line (or front 7) can hold up and not let them grind 4-5 yards a carry all the way down the field.

If UM gets into a slow pace, 3 yards and a cloud of dust type of game with them, it'll be 50/50. If you can score and speed them up, I think UM wins.

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snarling wolverine

September 25th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^

And Wisconsin has quietly put together the 12th best offense in the country. 

Hmm, they've scored 34 against Western Kentucky,  45 against New Mexico (but most came in the second half), 21 against BYU and 28 (thanks to a mop-up TD) against Iowa.  I don't know how legit that ranking is.  

 

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WolverineHistorian

September 25th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

Thank you for pointing out that elephant in the room.  Why should a unit get credit for beating the likes of New Mexico and WKU?  Can you imagine the sh*tstorm people would have been having here if Michigan were ahead of New Mexico 10-7 at halftime like Wisconsin was?

That line should actually be...

And Wisconsin has quietly put together the 12th best offense in the country by Wisconsin-ing their schedule.  

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M_Born M_Believer

September 25th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^

So Bill’s stats say that we are favored in every game except for the last one. YET to write his narrative he glosses over those data points  

From an analytical perspective I would throw this article out for its inaccuracies. 

BUT, I do agree with his sentiment. Same sentiments that was expressed on BTN studio last night. Ironically, the one analyst that is most bullish on us is Jim Laurinaitis....

Joined: 11/11/2009

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Ty Butterfield

September 25th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^

It is hilarious how the Staee bandwagon football “fans” tell Michigan to stop living in the past. HOWEVA, if you point out how the alleged “Mr. March” has crapped the bed in the last three NCAA tournaments they will just start bringing up the past.

Joined: 09/07/2009

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The Fan in Fargo

September 25th, 2018 at 6:52 PM ^

Nebraska had a good front seven too. Am I right? I also have a feeling that if that Wisconsin offense doesn't come in firing on all cylinders, they gonna get smoked because this defense held it's own against them in a discouraging game in Madison. Hahaha...I cant fricking wait!! This offense is way better than the one that played in Madison.

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