BBrown: Predicting Commitments
With the recent visit cancellation by JuJu Smith, I started thinking about how his decision didn't surprise me much. It's no secret that Cali kids are tough to even get to Ann Arbor, and near impossible to sign, but a lot of people had hopes for JuJu. Yeah his name had always been thrown around as a potential target but I never really got that vibe and I'll attempt to explain why.
In actively covering recruiting for 2 years now, I have noticed a pretty accurate way of determining whether Michigan will land a kid or not.
Usually if a kid is really receptive to me and responds back in a timely fashion all the time, and even reaches out to me, that has been a very good sign that he will choose Michigan or at least be legitimately interested throughout the process. (i.e. Chase Winovich, Drake Harris, Michael Ferns, Derrick Green, Moe Ways, etc.) All of those guys talked to me very openly and regularly and obviously we know their decisions.
On the flip side, kids that I've had a very hard time getting responses from, or kids that don't seem to have much to say, usually don't have much interest in Michigan and ultimately end up committing elsewhere, or keep Michigan hanging on, but never really have intentions of going there. (i.e. Leon McQuay, Ty Isaac, JuJu Smith, Marshon Lattimore, Laquon Treadwell.)
I do realize that McQuay, Isaac, and Treadwell all seemed to have very legitmate interest in Michigan, but I was never able to get much from them, IF I was even able to get in touch with them at all, which always gave me the vibe that they would commit elsewhere.
This is not a bulletproof theory by any means, but it has been pretty true to date. If you are curious about a recruit I'd be happy to try and respond with my "vibe" at this point in time. Just a thought I had while reading the JuJu thread.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:23 AM ^
Thanks for the insight!
So........how responsive have Hand and McDowell been?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:29 AM ^
I am very confident in Hand. His coach talks to me all the time, Da'Shawn himself doesn't, but that's just kind of how he is. He's not a spotlight, flashy, talkative kind of person. The times I have talked to him, he was so excited about Michigan it was easy to detect. Now, it's been a while, and he's had his Bama visit and Florida visit approaching so those will factor in, but I think he's Blue.
McDowell on the other hand is a little trickier. He's a different kind of kid. His trainer tells me that Malik doesn't even know who most of the coaches are that call him. He just loves football but doesn't get caught up in all the nonsense. Early on he talked to me all the time. He would respond to texts, send me messages on Facebook, he even sent me a picture of his car when he got into a small accident last winter. Lately though, he's been a ghost. I think he's been like that toward everyone but that makes me a bit leery. I still think Michigan is the obvious choice because he's familiar and has visited so many times, but if he surprised a lot of people and committed elsewhere, I wouldn't be shocked.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^
Supposedly, his parents didn't want him making a commitment that early. They wanted him to slow down the process.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:27 AM ^
Who is our main competition to land Malik?
November 5th, 2013 at 11:32 AM ^
The list of realistic candidate might be far narrower now for all we know, but on Rivals, you've got Alabama, Florida, Florida State, LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Ohio State and USC listed with "medium" for interest. I would think the top of the list comes from this group.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:02 PM ^
Florida and USC are the biggest competitors, from what I've gathered.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:24 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 10:29 AM ^
Soooo......how's it been talking with Hand and McDowell?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:50 AM ^
Yeah, but what about Hand and McDowell?
November 5th, 2013 at 2:16 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 6:05 PM ^
Has anyone asked Brandon about Hand and McDowell?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:30 AM ^
Brandon....hold me. It's something TomVH used to do.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:31 AM ^
**hands brandon a sweater vest**
November 5th, 2013 at 12:35 PM ^
You really shouldn't talk about your exes in front of your new girl
November 5th, 2013 at 10:43 AM ^
So it sounds like Lattimore isn't realistic (not that I ever thought it was) but what about his teammate Smith?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:44 AM ^
Thanks for this. Interesting to see what the potential indicators are! Seems like you have a bit of a Sam Webb-esque "gut instinct."
November 5th, 2013 at 10:45 AM ^
Does he dropping out bode well with the two kids from Glenville? (Lattimore & Smith)
Is that a product of JuJu's own choosing? Or has M been heating up on those two, causing JuJu to see the writing on the wall?
Have you had a chance to talk with the Glenville duo at all?
Will any of my questions be answered? Find out next time on...RECRUITING IN SPACE.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:40 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 10:46 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
A quick google search suggests that this person actually exists! So there you go.
On the side of my browser for mgoblog is an advertisement for Michigan State's "New Master Certificates in Supply Chain Management." It's "100% Online." could this be funded by MSU's a.d., a sort of Brandon-esque way of taunting me through my favorite website?
November 5th, 2013 at 11:59 AM ^
Froholdt is very responsive and talks to me quite a bit. His situation is just so different that it's hard to get a bead on him. I think Michigan will be in the mix for him though.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:49 AM ^
So, if they talk to you, its a good thing?
Based on two years?
IDK
might be too soon buddy...
but I guess if you keep contacting them at 14 it should help our team in the long, long run...
love you,
jdon
November 5th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^
Probably unnecessary.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:15 AM ^
Well, consider the source.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:10 PM ^
Unneccessary. BBrown has been doing this for two years and has established himself. He calls, leaves a message with his credentials, and the kid can Google to confirm. Not calling is a great indication of interest.
November 6th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^
I probably could have left out the last sentence...
love,
jdon
November 9th, 2013 at 7:27 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:12 AM ^
Otherwise, wow.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:13 AM ^
you don't read the recruiting round-ups? Or the interviews?
November 5th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^
Of course I read them, but I like to get the information straight from the source. Plus you can't really detect tone or anything like that by reading text.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:53 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^
but holds some water.
November 5th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^
Athlete shows interest in talking to Michigan centric recruiting reporter = genuine interest in playing for Michigan.
Is that so hard to grasp as a concept?
November 5th, 2013 at 1:33 PM ^
I mean this isn't an Earth shattering concept, I just thought I'd share what I've found with some examples. It's not hard to figure out that if a kid is overly willing to talk with a Michigan site that he probably has interest in Michigan.
November 5th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^
I've been concerned with the amount of confidence other recruiting experts have had regarding McDowell considering his distance and unwillingness to name a leader, or really say anything. The only thing that gives me confidence is that his parents seem 100% Blue, and that often can be a huge factor in the end. He'll be an excellent pick-up for whichever team is fortunate enough to land him. I hope Jabrill is still working on him! Go Blue!
November 5th, 2013 at 10:51 AM ^
So in other words Hand to Alabama and McDowell to Florida?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:56 AM ^
So... what you're saying is fire Borges? /s
Besides Hand and McDowell, who else have you been in touch with that gives you good feelings?
November 5th, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^
Stefon Diggs?
November 5th, 2013 at 11:57 AM ^
This joke is old as hell, but it still makes me laugh.
November 5th, 2013 at 2:28 PM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:00 AM ^
Are the recruits that you talked to on a regular basis that were very positive about Michigan that went elsewhere? For example did you speak with Josh Garnett, who it sounded like was high on Michigan but then picked Stanford.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^
Treadwell is one that comes to mind. I didn't have a ton of communication with him, but everything pointed to him being Blue for a long time. I actually wasn't covering recruiting when the Garnett recruitment was going on, so I have nothing to offer there.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:01 AM ^
Wouldn't you improve the accuracy by networking with recruiting gurus from other teams? You say re. McDowell that "I think he's been like that toward everyone", but have you contacted OSU, MSU, Alabama, Florida, etc. gurus, and checked how their contact is with them? Seems if you always did that, you'd increase your accuracy by an additional factor.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^
I have done that, but not as much as I'd actually like to. Sometimes it's just a matter of not thinking about it and other times people aren't as open to sharing information as much as you'd think.
Either way it is definitely an approach I have used and would like to use more.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:02 AM ^
November 5th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^
Not happening.
November 5th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
Hey, pass the bong, man. Don't hog it.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:02 PM ^
No chance.
November 5th, 2013 at 12:03 PM ^
any chance of mcDowell to sparty ? thats the one that would make me puke in my mouth.