Upon Further Review 2012: Offense vs Notre Dame Comment Count

Brian

Formation notes: "second and seven under center play action":

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via NDMSPAINT.

Substitution notes: usual. When Lewan went out temporarily they made the same OL switch. No Rawls, FWIW.

Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR DForm Type Play Player Yards
M25 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB sweep Robinson 5
End around fake gets Te'o chasing Gallon way away from the play after he initially reacted quickly to the actual run. Kwiatkowski(+1) seals Tuitt inside impressively; Mealer cannot pass Nix off to Barnum and the other ILB and Motta are flowing freely. Schofield makes contact with the playside OLB at a hash; OLB tries to force it inside but Robinson just runs past him, jogging OOB as Motta comes up. Probably a push as far as yardage goes, but upside was greater on the cut.
M30 2 5 I-form twins 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Pass FB wheel trickery Kerridge Inc (Pen +15)
Kerridge offset. Gardner comes in motion and takes a pitch from Robinson, then sets up to throw. This doesn't really fool the OLB covering Kerridge but he is checking for a potential run and ends up a step or two behind. Gardner leaves it short, giving the LB a chance to catch up and interfere. (MA, 1, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
M45 1 10 Shotgun 2-back TE 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Run Inverted veer keeper Robinson 3
ND shifts from an under look back to their standard presnap. Lewan(-1) is smoked by Tuitt on the backside. Omameh and Mealer(-1) double Nix; when Nix takes the contact he pulls Mealer with him so that when Omameh releases he's free to run at the play, too. Denard pulls as he sees the playside LB bug out for the frontside but the two DL cut off the vertical hole and he ends up having to go back outside, which blows up all the blocking angles and lets a bunch of guys converge after three. +0.5 for Schofield, I guess, for fending off Lewis-Moore decently enough and giving Denard the little chunk he did get.
M48 2 7 Shotgun 3-wide tight 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Slant Gallon Inc
I don't think this is a bad throw, actually, since the OLB was backing out into this route and if he leads Gallon he is potentially throwing an INT. Gallon gets his hands on it but it's behind him and dropped. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
M48 3 7 Shotgun 4-wide tight 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Scramble Robinson 7
Forever to look, but he can't find anyone. Kind of looks like a delayed drag from Gardner is his primary read after the other guys run off the coverage, but for whatever reason he doesn't like that and takes off, reaching for the first down dangerously. He's down before it comes out. (SCR, N/A, protection 3/3, Robinson +1 on ground.) On replay, he didn't really have anyone.
O45 1 10 Ace twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Pass PA fly Roundtree Inc
Under center PA fools no one, nobody open. ND only rushes three, leaving a spy back. Time and Robinson chucks it in the general direction of a blanketed Roundtree. That's so overthrown I think he's throwing it away, but if so just run the ball. There was room to pick up something. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, RPS -1)
O45 2 10 I-form 2 1 2 4-3 under Run Iso Toussaint 2
A corner blitz submarines this. A slant got Nix upfield of Barnum but Barnum gets a shove and Nix runs by the play, leaving a gap; Toussaint tries to hit it but is run down by the corner and a LB coming around the outside. RPS -1.
O43 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Dig Roundtree Inc
Double A gap blitz. Michigan almost picks it up. Toussaint chops down one LB, but he is fortunate enough to roll over to his feet quickly enough to get up and hit Robinson as he throws. He'd found an open guy but the pass sails since he literally cannot step into it. (BA, 0, protection ½, Toussaint -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
O10 1 10 Ace trips bunch 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run Pitch sweep Toussaint -2
Play asks Roundtree(-1) to block a 250 pound OLB with predictable results. OLB beats him, strings it out, pushes Roundtree back, etc. Te'o shoots up in the gap to the interior of this block and convinces Lewan(-1) he must abort his pull outside Roundtree to take him. Toussaint ends up with no space and unblocked guys in his face. RPS -1.
O12 2 12 Ace 3TE 1 3 1 Base 3-4 Pass PA sack N/A -3
Play asks Toussaint to block Tuitt with predictable results. He whiffs, Lewan gets beat by Shembo, down goes Robinson. (PR, N/A, protection 0/4, Lewan -2, Toussaint -2) Also no one was open because not one ND player took a step towards the line of scrimmage, but hey when you can get Michigan's incredibly deep TE corps on the field on second and goal from the twelve, you gotta do it. RPS -2.
O15 3 15 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Sack N/A -10
Barnum(-1) is shoved back into the pocket by KLM; Schofield(-2) gets crushed back by Tuitt and Denard has no pocket and an edge rusher, with predictable result. Looks like Tuitt got his rush by smashing Schofield in the face, which isn't legal, but it also isn't called. Meanwhile, everyone in the pattern is double covered. Woo! (PR, N/A, protection 0/3, Barnum -1, Schofield -2).
Drive Notes: missed FG(43), 0-0, 9 min 1st Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M12 1 10 Shotgun 2-back TE 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Run End-around Gallon 8
Similar to the Norfleet play from UMass. The OLB and corner to that side both hop out to contain; Gallon cuts it up. M gets lucky after a terrible block from JRobinson(-1), who's supposed to crack down on a linebacker and gives a weak shoulder shove as he falls to the ground. This means he accidentally trips KLM as he tries to release from Schofield(+1, I guess), and KLM falls into the linebacker who was gently caressed by JRob. Gallon(+0.5) cuts behind a charging Te'o on the corner and picks up an extra few yards.
M20 2 2 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Run Yakety snap N/A -6
Was going to be an inverted veer, it looks like.
M14 3 8 Shotgun 4-wide tight 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Dig Gardner 18
Good protection; Robinson zings it in a tight window just as Gardner breaks open between two zone defenders. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
M32 1 10 Ace 3TE 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Pass Throwback screen Gallon Inc
Third TE actually Kerridge, no Funchess. This one isn't going anywhere even if accurate, as Lewan got bumped by the OLB and cannot get out on the corner. OLB and CB will probably combine to TFL if caught. Denard turfs it. (IN, 0, screen)
M32 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 under Pass Hitch Roundtree 9
Barnum pulls and falls over but ND is just containing, really, and there's no pressure. Big difference between this and the passing downs above. Corner to this side is playing three deep and is run off by a corner route; Roundtree is wide open underneath it as a linebacker tries to get out on him. This is a read he was making in his first start, FWIW. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
M41 3 1 Shotgun 2TE 1 2 2 4-3 under Run QB power Robinson 2
Safety blitz almost blows this up as ND slants under the blocking and sends Motta; Omameh(+1) almost accidentally blocks him, but block him he does. Robinson(+0.5) can blast straight ahead to barely get it. Williams(-1) got slanted under dangerously; Lewan(+0.5) got enough movement on his guy to provide the tiny window exploited.
M43 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 0 4 Nickel even Run Inside zone Toussaint 0
Slant sends Toussaint into a corner blitz. Mealer(-2) got beat up by the slant and ends up in the backfield, forcing Toussaint into the unblocked contain. If the corner didn't get him the other unblocked LB would. RPS -1.
M43 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass PA rollout dig Roundtree 11
PA half roll thing puts Denard in space with unblocked Tuitt. Denard stops, finds Roundtree in a spot on his dig route, and zips it to him without stepping into the throw. Flat footed, a dart. I bet this goes as well all other times. (DO, 3, protection N/A)
O46 1 10 Ace 3TE 1 3 1 4-3 under Pass PA hitch Gallon 12
Two guys in this pattern and ND still gets pressure as Barnum(-1) and Mealer(-1) get split. Denard has to roll away from that and zings it to Gallon, dangerously. CB was breaking on the ball and almost had a play. (CA, 2, protection 1/3, Barnum -1, Mealer -1)
O34 1 10 I-Form twins 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Pass PA comeback Gardner 9
Great protection this time, though again we're talking two guys in a route so maybe that's expected. Gardner comes open, Denard slings it to him. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O25 2 1 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Nickel even Run Inverted veer keeper Robinson 15
Kwiatkowski(+1) erases the end, who I can't ID. Backup? OLB contains, Denard sees a lane, he pulls. Barnum(+1) gets a block on Te'o. Schofield fell as he released but did make the other ILB run around him enough for Denard(+2) to burst into the open field, where he does not get a block from Roundtree(-1) and ends up chopped down by a safety.
O10 1 10 Ace trips bunch 1 1 3 4-3 under Pass Halfback pass Dileo INT
You know about this. RPS punt; ND getting Te'o in Smith's face so fast he panics is because the line busts. Smith gets a BRX, if you're keeping score at home.
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-0, 1 min 1st Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M34 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Toussaint 2
Kind of a midline look as Lewan flares out to block OLB Shembo and the 3-4 DE is let go. He's outside, so give. The end result of blocking Shembo is to remove Lewan from blocking the backside LB. Toussaint wants to cut back, but unblocked LB, so he has to go back into the interior, where he's dead meat. Given the angle of Toussaint's attack this is probably what he's supposed to do. Not sure what they think ND is doing that will make this work, but it doesn't. Mealer and Barnum managed to get enough push to crease Nix a little but that's a push at best; Schofield(-1) got beat up by Tuitt. RPS -1.
M36 2 8 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Nickel even Penalty False start Toussaint -5
Derf
M31 2 13 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB draw Robinson 2
They fake the bubble screen, which only proves that the bubble would have picked up like ten yards on this play. Of course, this should have as well, but Te'o makes Omameh(-2) whiff and Barnum(-1) does not get much of a block on the other LB.
M33 3 11 Shotgun trips 2 0 3 Base 3-4 Pass Corner Gallon INT
Toussaint motions out. M rolls the pocket to the field, which only succeeds in getting a three man rush instant pressure when Kerridge(-2) is assigned to Shembo and fails to cut him. Three guys block Tuitt, though. Guy in Denard's face, throws worst possible pass ever. Absolutely no one open, FWIW. Throw it away, Denard. (BRXXX, 0, protection 0/2, Kerridge -2) RPS -1, as best case this playcall is a sack since you singled up a freshman fullback on a great pass rusher on a three man rush.
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-0, 11 min 2nd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M33 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass PA slant Gardner INT
PA leaves Te'o unblocked, who then runs into Denard's face. Denard finds Gardner, who's open, and throws it way in front of him. (INX, 0, protection 0/2, Smith -2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-3, 9 min 2nd Q. FWIW, the production on this game is fantastic. Great replays, no missed plays, Maycock saying a ton of smart things.
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M20 1 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Run QB sweep Robinson 3
PA fake with Toussaint going hard the other way doesn't hold anyone. Kwiatkowski(+1) gets a block on the playside end that forces him to give a ton of ground to come around it. That should secure the edge but a late move from Motta brings a ninth guy into the box and he aggressively fills that hole unblocked. Roundtree is hypothetically the guy who is supposed to block him but he's running downfield at the guy in man over him. (Who is twelve yards off the LOS. Bubble, etc.) Denard decides to cut back, which is worth three yards. Going at unblocked Motta is probably the same, so push. I liked Barnum(+1) sealing Te'o inside and giving Denard a lane; Lewan(+0.5) got a good kick so there is a spot. Mealer(-1) did not help Omameh seal Nix very much and he ended up not blocking anyone on the second level. RPS -1.
M23 2 7 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Run Inverted veer keeper Robinson 8
Lewan(+2) and Kwiatkowski(+0.5) get great push on the playside DE, which makes the LBs' jobs very tough. DE contains, Robinson pulls. Lewan then comes off a crushing block on the playside DE to get a LB. Barnum(+1) has cut off Nix; Robinson has a big lane and hits it up. He's about a foot from busting outside for a big gain but can't quite get behind Williams(+0.5) who had an extended backside block that fended off Shembo.
M31 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB power Robinson 3
Schofield pulls. Barnum and Mealer get motion, but a LB shoots the gap on the backside. Te'o shows hard and gets outside at the LOS, funneling back; with the other LB pursuing Robinson doesn't have much of an option other than running up Schofield's back for a few. I think Nix was holding Mealer, FWIW, but it was subtle enough to not get called, because you never get called unless you literally tackle a dude. I think this is push all around.
M34 2 7 I-Form 2 1 2 4-3 under Pass Waggle derp Gallon INT
Notre Dame may be expecting this! Tuitt is on the edge, unblocked, and immediately shoots up at Robinson; nobody open, Robinson should just take a sack, but throws something in the general direction of Gallon that is both a terrible decision and inaccurate, turnover. (BRX, 0, protection 0/2, team -2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-3, 6 min 2nd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M16 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB power Robinson 2
This is set up pretty well with Lewan(+1) blowing up one LB and two blockers hitting it up in the hole to block Te'o. Robinson(-2) should hit it up like the play is designed, but instead tries to cut back, where Nix hacks him down since he's just invalidated Barnum's block. Funchess(+1) kicked out Shembo well.
M18 2 8 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB sweep Robinson 20
Kwiatkowski(+1) seals Shembo; Lewan and Barnum pull around. LBs are charging hard upfield at the snap, which gets one of them blocked by a releasing Mealer(+1). Te'o gets super aggressive and tries to shoot inside of Barnum to attack an outside run, which runs him out of the play. Lewan(+0.5) easily kicks the OLB, and the nose is the nearest guy as Robinson hits the LOS. Boom secondary. Robinson ducks OOB after picking up a bunch. RPS +2: caught the LBs with a play that exploited their aggression.
M38 1 10 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Hail Mary Roundtree INT
Why is Roundtree just jogging down the field? Why is Michigan throwing a Hail Mary with 16 seconds on the clock and a timeout? We may never know. Not charted.
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-10, EOH
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M21 1 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run Inside zone Toussaint 31
M seems so much more comfortable running at a four man line. Omameh(+2) takes on Nix one on one and blows him off the line. Mealer(+1) releases and kicks one of the ILBs. Te'o is not trying to hit the frontside gap and contains backside as he is again expecting this to be the belly. It looks like it but the Toussaint angle indicates it is not. The slight change gets two guys on the backside, where they're useless. Toussaint(+1) glides through the gap; Lewan(+0.5) gets an eh block on the corner, who gives up the edge, and Toussaint breaks a big one. RPS +1.
O48 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run Zone stretch Toussaint 4
Again two guys end up containing Denard. Te'o is creeping forward at the start as Motta comes down over the TE to check any of those PA seams and bursts upfield in a flash past Omameh(-1), who does not recognize this and get a shove. Toussaint(+1) makes a cut behind this and gets some yards thanks to the double delay on Denard; Nix got moved by Mealer(+0.5) and Barnum(+0.5) and this helps as well. RPS push; guys on backside are good, but allowing Te'o to attack like this bad; bubble yadda.
O44 2 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over Run QB power Robinson -1
Toussaint runs to the opposite edge on a fake that holds some backside guys as Barnum pulls around the TE and Lewan. Te'o is running at the gap on the snap after having read the Barnum pull, presumably, and is aligned in such a way so that Mealer had no shot anyway. He shows in an otherwise well blocked hole (Kwiatkowksi, Lewan(+0.5 each), Barnum(+1). Denard has to run up the backs of his blockers and gets nil. RPS -1. Unblocked guy in hole due to ND D alignment.
O45 3 7 Shotgun 4-wide tight 1 0 4 4-3 even Pass Drag Gallon 8
Straight dropback; four man rush with Te'o spying. He comes on a delayed rush and the other LB bugs out for Toussaint flaring out of the backfield, opening up a cross. Denard steps into it and hits Gallon against three guys on the first level of the zone. He turns it up for the first. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O37 1 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Run Inverted veer keeper Robinson 9
OLB contains, pull. Kwiatkowksi(+0.5) seals a slow-reacting Tuitt inside. Te'o is outside of an attempted block from Schofield, which isn't really his fault. Barnum(+1) pulls around and nails him. Te'o contains, forcing it back inside. Motta assumes this is not happening and hops outside; Roundtree(+0.5) gets a block; Denard cuts behind. No flow from the inside as Omameh(+1) hammers Nix on a double. This is momentarily super exciting until Robinson(+1) runs into the overhanging corner as he tries to get the edge. Nice tackle but I think Denard needs to keep going straight upfield since this guy didn't screw it up this time. Schofield(-1) tried to block Te'o, missed, and then peeled back instead of just going further downfield, or he could have blocked the CB and put Denard one on one with the S for six.
O28 2 1 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run Inside zone Toussaint 4 (Pen -10)
This is all Toussaint(-2), who has a gap to slam it up for a first down in as Omameh(+1) gets push on Nix; Barnum is giving ground but has fended off an OLB. Toussaint's going to get a yard or four and not much more, but that's a first down. Instead he bounces around a guy three yards in the backfield and a second guy further outside two yards in the backfield, into the boundary, which draws holding calls and gets him the same number of yards he would have had anyway.
O38 2 11 Shotgun 2-back TE 2 1 2 4-3 over Run End-around Gallon 5
Almost but not quite a big gain as FR Day is in at this end and is the guy M is trying to confuse. He pops up and contains the QB as Gallon gets the ball. Nix goes straight upfield, knocking back Barnum(-0.5) and delaying Omameh's pull, so he can get to Day before he realizes who's got it and starts chasing. JRobinson(+1) cracks down on the playside LB very well; Lewan whiffs on Te'o but to the outside, which makes him not relevant. Corner contains at the numbers and Day manages to run Gallon down from behind. Nice play by Day.
O33 3 6 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass Drag Roundtree 10
Double A gap gets a guy in immediately, M has a route right beneath that from Roundtree. No one within 10 yards of him, easy completion and YAC for first. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS +1)
O23 1 10 Ace 3TE 1 3 1 Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Toussaint -1
Schofield(+1) locks out Tuitt and pushes him upfield. Linebackers flow hard to the playside, Toussaint(-1) sees massive cutback lane provided by Schofield, cuts into it... and falls down untouched. Glarble. Lewan(+0.5) and Barnum(+0.5) had blown up KLM, FWIW; Omameh and Mealer had a tougher time with Nix but did okay.
O24 2 11 I-Form Big 2 2 1 Base 3-4 Run Lead zone Toussaint 8
Nix starts pushing into the intended hole; Mealer(+0.5) and Barnum(+1) push him down the line and eventually pancake him, with Barnum popping out on a LB. Kerridge(+1) eases past the detour and booms the other ILB. Toussaint(+1) has a big gap now thanks to Lewan(+1) kicking the backside DE way out and cuts behind Kerridge into a big gap. He starts dancing as pursuit converges and picks up a nice gain.
O16 3 3 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run Speed option Robinson 5
Kwiatkowski(+1) and Schofield(+1) blow Tuitt out, knocking him downfield; Mealer(+0.5) just manages to get his helmet across Nix and there's a crease Robinson(-3) hits. An arm rakes the ball out, drive over.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-10, 8 min 3rd Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M43 1 10 I-Form twins 2 1 2 Base 3-4 Run Iso Toussaint 2
Argh bubble etc. Schofield(-2) is head up on KLM and doesn't really get anything. No motion, beat to inside. Omameh(+0.5) and Mealer(+0.5) beat up on Nix pretty good and Kerridge(+1) plowed the MLB; Toussaint has to cut away from his blocking because KLM is all over it. OLB who should be covering bubble contains.
M45 2 8 Shotgun 2-back TE 2 1 2 4-3 over Run Inverted veer give Toussaint 1
DE comes down on Robinson so give. Smith hits him not too well but enough; Omameh is pulling around to block the LB trying to contain; Toussaint(-2) should bounce it outside after feinting in but just decides to run into defenders. Barnum(+0.5) neutralized a penetrating Nix and Omameh(+0.5) got to the POA despite some delay caused by that; Lewan(+0.5) seemed to have a pretty good handle on Te'o.
M46 3 7 Shotgun trips 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass TE out Funchess 5
Gallon runs the corner off and Funchess goes out to exploit the space underneath. Denard hits him but it's kind of a slow, looping pass that allows the corner to recover quickly enough to prevent any YAC and force Michigan in to a fourth down. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O49 4 2 Shotgun 4-wide tight 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Out Dileo 4
Toussaint motions out to give an empty look. A couple of quick outs to the short side of the field are paired with a corner blitz so both Dileo and Gardner are open. Denard's pass is dodgy and low but Dileo digs it out. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O45 1 10 I-Form Big 2 2 1 Base 3-4 Run Iso Toussaint 5
ND reacting hard to inside zone action from the OL. Te'o is gone a gap away from the play as Mealer(+1) moves out on him after doubling Nix, who Omameh(-1) seals away. Nix comes upfield of Omameh's block and pursues Toussaint from behind. Kerridge(+1) pounds the LB and gets movement on him. Schofield(+1) blows up a backup DE and there's a gap; the Omameh block makes it smaller than it should be. Pursuit harasses Toussaint into the filling S.
O40 2 5 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run QB power Robinson 1
Mealer pulls here. ND is just too aggressive on this one, but they have to have gotten help from a Jackson(-2) bust as he runs right by the OLB to this side to hit a safety. OLB contains, getting outside the Mealer block, Te'o fills unblocked, Robinson bounces out for a minimal gain. Man, Kwiatkowski(+0.5) is just sealing guys every time. Easy job? Or is he killing people?
O39 3 4 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run Speed option Robinson 6
Omameh(+1) gets across the playside DT, who is a backup, and gets to the second level; Mealer(+1) then takes over and eventually puts this guy five yards downfield as he tries to flow. Schofield(+1) and Kwiatkowksi(+1) do the same thing to the DE, who is FR Day. Robinson sees the world caving in and just rams it up the backs of his OL for the first. Pitch was open too. Lewan leaves with a shoe issue.
O33 1 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run Inverted veer keeper Robinson 5
ND has slid its LBs to the field and Robinson is reading the OLB, as M blocks the line. OLB contains, pull. Kwiatkowski(+0.5) and Schofield (now at LT, +0.5) seal Day, with Kwi popping out on a LB. Burzynski(+1) pulls around and hits Te'o. Hole. Robinson hits it up then cuts behind, which seems like a good idea, but Mealer(-1) lost KLM after getting a good seal on him and he flows down the line to tackle.
O28 2 5 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Run Inside zone Toussaint 3
Again they're flaring out to block that OLB and letting the 3-4 DE go; DE does not really commit anywhere and there is a handoff. Ride that mesh longer or you're not really getting anywhere here. Toussaint is attacking farther outside, but this time no holes. Mealer(-1) got pushed too far by Nix; Schofield(+0.5) got a decent push on KLM and Toussaint can run up his back for a few.
O25 3 2 Shotgun 2back 2TE 2 2 1 Base 3-4 Run QB power Robinson 3
Lewan back in. He(+1) blows KLM back a yard on the snap and to the inside. Kwiatkowski and Williams(+0.5) both take on players at the POA. Kwiatkowski has a DE, who wins easily but not fast enough to be relevant. Williams stalemates a LB. Omameh shoves him forward, Robinson burrow up behind. RPS +1; this was a pretty easy conversion with a spare blocker pushing a pile past the sticks.
O22 1 10 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 4-3 even Run QB sweep Robinson 0
Oof. This is one block away from being huge, and that block is Omameh(-2) not getting any kind of seal on a DT shaded inside of him. He fires out straight while everyone else steps right, Nix gets the edge on him. Kwiatkowski(+1) gets Tuitt sealed. Schofield and Mealer pull around. Schofield doesn't actually kick the OLB but he's moving way outside to contain. Mealer(+1) chops Te'o but the contain and pursuit from Nix ends the play when this is probably at least a first down otherwise. Denard tries to cut after being chased outside and slips, giving up a few yards.
O22 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even Run Inside zone Toussaint 4
Barnum(-1) does not step around Nix after he takes a Mealer bump and loses him to the playside. Omameh(-1) just gets beat by KLM. Toussaint(+1) bounces outside past both DTs and picks up a few thanks to Kwiatkowski(+0.5) and Schofield(+0.5) getting the playside DE back a couple yards.
O18 3 6 Shotgun 2TE twins 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Pass PA scramble Robinson 3
Play action fake does nothing except get two ND defenders in as they take off for Robinson. LBs suck up a little but get back on a little drag over the middle, and Funchess is blanketed by two guys. Denard dances around and gets tackled short of the sticks. (PR, N/A, protection 0/2, team -2, RPS -1)
Drive Notes: FG(33), 3-10, 13 min 4th Q
Ln Dn Ds O Form RB TE WR D Form Type Play Player Yards
M30 1 10 Ace twins twin TE 1 2 2 4-3 over Pass PA post corner Gardner Inc
Gardner starts in the backfield and then motions out. Denard gets great protection this time and can sit and survey until Kwiatkowski finally gets beat, whereupon he finds a miraculously open Gardner 40 yards downfield. Gardner again does the 360 as Denard takes him away from the safety; pass is in his hands; dropped. (DO, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +2) No idea why this could possibly work in this situation but it did. Borges sorcery ++.
M30 2 10 Shotgun 2-back 2TE 2 2 1 Base 3-4 Pass RB wheel Toussaint Inc
Toussaint motions out to the boundary, which is WR-free. Token play fake to Kerridge, protection pretty good but Omameh does make Robinson move his feet a little. He's staring at a bunch of covered guys and manages to put it over the head of a guy in great coverage on Toussaint, who has the ball in his hands a moment before Motta comes over the top and separates it from him after disengaging from Funchess, who he's covering. We don't get a wide shot to see if he had someone somewhere else; this is a great deep throw and a play equal to that from Motta. (DO, 1, protection 2/2)
M30 3 10 Shogun trips 1 0 4 Base 3-4 Pass Improv Gardner 13
Only a three man rush. Robinson steps up through it after his initial survey finds no one. This draws a couple of underneath zone defenders up; he tosses it over them to Gardner, who is still just a hair in front of the safety. Completion, tackle, first down. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
M43 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 4-3 over Pass Bubble screen Gallon 13
Boy am I glad it took 54 minutes to throw this. It's not a true bubble as the throw is delayed and guys get downfield to block but it's so open Gallon cuts inside of the OLB despite Roundtree setting up to block him so Roundtree can get outside. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1!)
O44 1 10 Ace 3-wide 1 2 2 Base 3-4 Pass PA corner JRobinson 20
PA kind of threatens dread waggle. Barnum is flaring out to the waggle-ish side to block, though, and Smith has enough time to shut down Shembo on his otherwise unblocked charge. Denard sets up and now has a simple high low read on the corner, who is not sinking, so he throws the corner. Nails the other Robinson in the numbers on rhythm. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
O24 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Nickel even Pass TE drag Funchess 5
Double A blitz. It's not timed as well as the MSU ones, which allows a pickup. Smith gets a cut but the LB does force a throw; it's the same drag M used a couple times earlier and is complete but this time ND is ready for an immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O19 2 5 Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB draw Robinson 12
ND sends only three and starts dropping the LBs; by the time M releases downfield all those guys are at the sticks and moving backwards. Mealer(+1) shoves the NT to one side and that's Denard through the line. Funchess(+1) and Omameh(+1) pick up blocks on virtually stationary downfield defenders and Robinson shoots between them, getting chopped down by a safety inside the ten. RPS +1.
O7 1 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Run QB power Robinson 1
Funchess(-1) is blocking down and gets blown up by Day, which picks off Barnum's pull and makes Denard(-2) decides to go under it... which is where Day is. Go outside, take your chances, maybe get OOB.
O6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 1 1 3 Base 3-4 Pass Sack N/A -8
All day, no one open. Robinson's timer goes off and he wants to scramble around; Day grabs him as he tries to break the pocket. Not Schofield's fault at all. Just a thing that happens on the goal line sometimes. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
O14 3 G Shotgun 4-wide 1 1 3 4-3 even Pass Corner Gardner Inc
OL collapsing all around him as ND knows he has to throw and is really coming hard this time w/ Te'o spying. Gardner is his best option and is kind of open. Denard misses, putting it off Gardner's hand but well OOB. (IN, 0, protection 2/3, team -1)
Drive Notes: FG(33) 6-13, 3 min 4th Q. EOG for offense

Dispensing with chatter.

This was the structural problem with the Michigan offense against ND.

fake-bubble-on-thistake-the-fucking-yards

two-yard-2

ND:

  • often showed extremely soft coverage,
  • ran cover zero behind it,
  • never had their corners tested, and
  • never had their OLBs put in a bind.

I'm not just talking about bubble screens here. In either of the top two frames, a simple smash concept…

trip-smash[1]

A and Z are running a smash concept that high-lows the corner

…is an easy read Michigan—one Denard was doing way back in the day—is in advantageous position on. Michigan ran some of these. They either should have kept going to that and curl-flat or bubble screens until ND was forced out of this defense.

They should also have protected Denard at all costs. Even in this game, when Robinson had time he was zipping it in.

Borges's late under center passes were max-protect sorts that kept Robinson clean and resulted in big gains (or should have) as ND's inexperienced corners got lost on Gardner, sucked up on a short route, opening up a longer one, etc.

On each interception*, Denard got quick pressure. On the first it was a three man rush with a rolling pocket that got a redshirt freshman fullback singled up against Shembo. On the second, Te'o flies up in the pocket unmolested. Smart Football suggested that Smith needs to abort the mesh point and just go block the guy, and yeah if that's what ND is doing and Michigan is prepared for it go for it. They apparently weren't. I've never seen M abort a mesh like that, or have to.

The third is second and seven under center play action that gets Tuitt in Denard's face. Is Gallon open? Yeah. Does that somehow erase the fact that Denard has thrown INTs on his past two throws thanks to pressure, has has thrown the ball away once this year and was amongst the worst guys in the country in interception rate last year? I mean, we know this happens. It has just happened against Air Force and UMass, at home. It is not going to stop happening. Calling plays that emphasize this flaw is insane. Everyone in the stadium knows that when Michigan goes under center a defender or two will make their top priority Denard containment. He'll be unblocked, and Denard will have to form up and make a throw with a guy in his face. Which he sucks at.

If you don't think that's stupid, I don't know what else I can tell you. Robinson was 24 of 40 for 244 yards, a TD, and no INTs two years ago against the Irish in a year when they finished with the #25 pass efficiency D. His regression is obvious despite having two solid years of QB coaching from Borges to raise him up.

If it's not the structure of the offense, what is it? Is Denard in Flowers for Algernon?

*[we're setting aside the Hail Mary because it's a Hail Mary.]

Now, Denard.

Losing this game was of course a joint effort. Passing table:

[Hennechart legend is updated.]

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
2011 through MSU 13 66(12) 11(1) 34(1) 17 2 3 10 4 55%
2011 after MSU 9 77(9) 7 17 9 6(1) 5(2) 9 5 69%
Alabama 4 15(2) 1 4 3 - - 3(1) 1 71%
Air Force 1 14 3 2 1 - 2 1 - 75%
UMass 1 16(4) - 4 - 1 1 1 3 68%
Notre Dame 4 10(1) 2 4(1) 2 1 1 3 1 65%

Gardner had an MA, Smith an INX. UFR charts don't fully weight the horribleness of any particularly horrible throw and so the DSR does not reflect the horrible horrible INTs. It's still pretty bad. The run chart is worse for Denard: he ends up –2.5 after fumbling and missing some cuts.

I've gotten so many conflicting opinions on the Gardner route on INT 2 that I don't know what is going on there, but he's staring right at Gardner so even if the route is not as expected he should be adjusting to that. The most authoritative word I've heard said the route was fine in the eyes of the coaches, so the final verdict is it's on Denard (and the combination of events that literally prevented him from stepping into the throw).

Meanwhile, taking sacks or just chucking the ball away on the other two throws saves Michigan 100 yards of field position, with another 71 thrown away by the fumble. Thanks to the heroics of the defense, it took both Denard and Borges having awful games to lose it, but lose it they did.

FWIW, Denard did abort a throw in the second half, which resulted in… a failure to convert a third down and a field goal attempt after he got instant pressure on ill-conceived play action. If he had done that in the first half, Michigan punts and ends up in third and long on the two passes that were just WTF—ie, not the Gardner miss. FWIW, in that half he was 8 of 11 with two of the incompletions deep balls in the hands of his WRs on the final drive. Notably, he was not eating unblocked pass rushers as he did this.

How could the pieces fit together better?

Bubble, etc. Posts written about it before. Or flash screens or what have you, anything that forces opposition corners and linebackers to think about the slot guys on every play. They're more effective as in the box blockers when they are dragging guys out of the box than trying to deal with guys much bigger than them.

That brings the secondary up, and then you're either looking at a deep safety and a more consistent run game, opportunities to hit shots over the top, or zip gone TDs. Here's a nine-yard inverted veer from the second half:

They option off the OLB. The safety sitting twelve yards off the LOS flashes into the screen at the end; he's the guy who forced Denard into the cornerback. If Michigan has forced him to react to the possibility of a bubble screen, he is not available and this defense has just ceded a 42 yard touchdown, or Motta has made a fantastic recovery—look how he's beating Roundtree's block to the outside—and Michigan still gets nine yards.

Meanwhile, Michigan's best running play is that inverted veer.

Michigan has no play action off of it. They have no counter from it. They just kind of run it. And it's great! But if you want to get the explosion back you need to start screwing with opponents by faking your good plays. Michigan tried it last year, couldn't block it, and dumped it. They took an offseason and kept it dumped. Oy.

Michigan should be running more max protection schemes. Keep Denard clean, give him a couple options, and then tell him to take off. Maybe leak Toussaint or Smith (or Norfleet) out of the backfield after a delay.

What was with the Vincent Smith play? That didn't look right.

It wasn't. A reader pointed out what Michigan did against Minnesota, pulling both playside linemen. On the initial pitch play, Michigan pulled both playside linemen. On the ill-fated trick play, nobody pulls. According to Borges that's a call that did not get to the line, which yeah. I punt on the RPS there, shading to plus since if Smith didn't have to pull up so quickly it looked like Dileo was coming open.

Consider my objections there retracted. The play likely would have worked but for the bust on the line call.

Please give me something positive?

The offensive line went from battered to batterer at halftime, inexplicably. Michigan's first play of the half set the tone when Patrick Omameh(!) of all people blows Nix off the line of scrimmage:

Michigan manballed up late and blew a dump-truck sized hole in the ND OL plus got a Dudley-level thump from Kerridge:

On a speed option late, Michigan picked up a third and four by blowing ND down the line so far that it didn't matter that the pitch was unbelievably wide open.

Here's the run chart:

the ratio that is important for the OL. On a lot of plays they do okay and get a push.

Offensive Line
Player + - Total Notes
Lewan 8.5 2 6.5 Got quality motion.
Barnum 7.5 3.5 4 Much better day than UMass.
Mealer 8 6 2 Big time struggles early, did better, also bad snap.
Omameh 8 7 1 I'll take a positive day for him against that line.
Schofield 7 6 1 Roughed up a little, but came through okay.
Kwiatkowski 10.5 - 10.5 I must be giving him too much credit for easy stuff?
Moore - - - DNP
Williams 1 1 0 Kwiatkowski is getting more PT than these guys though.
Funchess 2 1 1 Not really tested.
TOTAL 53.5 26.5 67% Burzsnyski also +1. That's quality but the Kwiatkowski thing worries me about this number.
Backs
Player + - T Notes
Robinson 4.5 7 -2.5 Didn't really get many Denard yards.
Bellomy - - - DNP
Toussaint 4 5 -1 Couple of WHAT ARE YOU DOING cuts
Rawls - - - DNP
Smith - - - DNCarry
Hayes - - - DNP
Hopkins - - - DNP
Kerridge 3 - 3 Insert complaints about scholarship FBs x2
TOTAL 11.5 12 -0.5 Need better from the ballcarriers.
Receivers
Player + - T Notes
Gardner - - 1-  
Roundtree 0.5 2 -1.5  
Gallon 0.5 - -  
Jackson - 2 -2  
Dileo - - - --
J. Robinson 1 1 0  
Darboh - - - --
TOTAL 2 5 -3 [Comment not found]
Metrics
Player + - T Notes
Protection 32 19 63% Toussaint –3, Lewan –2, Schofield –2, Barnum –2, Kerridge –2, Smith –2, Mealer –1, Team -5
RPS 12 13 -1 I was super super kind on the Denard INTs.

So, the protection sucked, and the line was in tough but came out okay, and the ballcarriers didn't do much, and I must be Mike Kwiatkowski's secret dad or something. I don't know about the Kwiatkowski stuff, but he sealed guys away every time when Michigan went for the edge. That gave him a ton of relevant blocks that he accomplished and boosted those numbers up there. I probably should have started with the half-points more, but I'll keep an eye on him in the future. There is a reason he is playing a lot more than Williams in single TE sets (and sets with Funchess).

Receivers:

[Passes are rated by how tough they are to catch. 0 == impossible. 1 == wow he caught that, 2 == moderate difficulty, 3 == routine. The 0/X in all passes marked zero is implied.]

Player 0 1 2 3   0 1 2 3
Gardner 2 - - 3/4   9 0/3 1/2 10/11
Roundtree 1   - 3/3   4 0/1 1/1 7/7
Gallon 2   1/1 2/2   5 0/1 3/4 9/9
J. Robinson       1/1   1 0/1   1/1
Dileo     1/1     1 1/1 2/2 2/2
Jackson           1     3/4
Darboh                  
Chesson                  
                   
Kwiatkowski                 2/2
Moore                  
Funchess       2/2     1/1   7/7
Williams                  
                   
Toussaint   0/1   1/1     0/1 0/1 1/1
Smith       1/1       0/1 3/3
Kerridge   0/1         0/1    

 

Nothing to see here, really.

Heroes?

Kwiatkowski was a major part of Michigan's success on the ground, along with Lewan.

Goats?

Denard, Borges, Denard, Borges, Denard, Borges, Denard, Borges, offensive line pass pro.

What does it mean for the Big Ten schedule?

I don't know, man. I'm guessing they'll finally look at themselves and say "okay, let's just assume this is what happens when Denard gets pressured" and move to avoid that at all costs. That means more running, fewer plays on which they put Denard on the edge against an unblocked dude, and please sweet baby Jesus more easy quasi-running game throws that get Gallon more touches.

Even in this dismal game, Denard's passes when he did not get pressure were quality, so max protect the guy, give him easy hot reads against those double-A blitzes, and run the ball.

They can and will do better against the Big Ten. Yes. I believe this.

Comments

scooterf

September 28th, 2012 at 3:13 PM ^

I will say, despite how frustrating Borges is with the Denard offense, I am at least encouraged about what things will look like in a few years with Shane Morris slinging the ball downfield to big receivers sprung open by Borges Sorcery. I do believe he'll be a good coordinator once the right personnel is in place, but this stopgap time with such a unique player at QB is so frustrating. 

MosherJordan

September 28th, 2012 at 3:14 PM ^

"If it's not the structure of the offense, what is it? Is Denard in Flowers for Algernon?"

Asking a QB to line up under center and execute a play action pass is really not supposed to be asking too much. Even if it's not his strength, he should still be capable of throwing the ball away when under pressure, because obviously. The problem isn't that Borges is a bad OC, it's that Denard is a bad quarterback.

Saying that it is Borges fault that he can't work around Denards glaring deficiencies as a QB is like saying it's the wife's fault that her husband cheated when she let him go on that business trip because everyone knows the dude always cheats when he goes on business trips.

 

TheBigAC

September 28th, 2012 at 3:26 PM ^

Denard is obviously not the best throqing QB and he especially struggles under pressure.

So why would Borges call multiple plays that open him up to free blitzers? I understand that he will get pressure on plays where the defender makes a good play, but why put him in a position where you are putting him under almost guaranteed pressure?

I actually am encouraged after this because of how well Borges did in the second half using Denards strengths. Overall this game does give me hope for this year on both sides of the ball, and I am encouraged about the future of the program.

MosherJordan

September 28th, 2012 at 10:48 PM ^

I didn't say calling PA was a good idea, just that we didn't lose because Borges called it. We lost because a senior QB threw the ball to the other team. If Denard had zero turnovers, and we had lost because Denard kept throwing the ball away on PA passes because he just couldn't be the pocket passer Borges likes, I'd blame Borges. but we didn't. We lost because Denard threw the ball to the other team. I get the Mallet running the spread comparison, but it's wrong. The correct analogy is if RR had run Mallet in the spread, and we lost, not because Mallet got tackled because he was slow, but that Mallet couldn't make the Zone reads and had 4 unforced fumbles.

MosherJordan

September 28th, 2012 at 10:48 PM ^

I didn't say calling PA was a good idea, just that we didn't lose because Borges called it. We lost because a senior QB threw the ball to the other team. If Denard had zero turnovers, and we had lost because Denard kept throwing the ball away on PA passes because he just couldn't be the pocket passer Borges likes, I'd blame Borges. but we didn't. We lost because Denard threw the ball to the other team. I get the Mallet running the spread comparison, but it's wrong. The correct analogy is if RR had run Mallet in the spread, and we lost, not because Mallet got tackled because he was slow, but that Mallet couldn't make the Zone reads and had 4 unforced fumbles.

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 28th, 2012 at 3:37 PM ^

The problem in this logic is that is obviously is asking too much of him.  Believe it or not, a lot of college QBs are not good under pressure.  We just don't have them at UM often (except for Threet/Sheridan).  Additionally, Denard brings strengths to this game that no other QB can in the nation, and yet we aren't using them.

Most everyone raged at GERG for his mis-use of personal in 2010.  Was putting Craig Roh at an LB and dropping in him into zone coverage then not a bad idea?  I mean, he just needs to form up and tackle Darius Willis, the most basic of plays on the defensive side of the ball.  Sure some blame is on Roh for never making plays in space, but come on man, asking him to do things he just cannot do is just bad coaching.  The same could be said about Borges and Denard.

MGoCombs

September 28th, 2012 at 4:20 PM ^

I think the OP's point was that you're not asking of Denard what you are asking of Roh in that situation. You're asking him to do simple quarterback things, like throw the ball away or use the skill of your legs to salvage some yards on broken protection. I am not in the blame one or the other crowd. I think sometimes Borges expects too much and sometimes Denard can't do simple things. I don't know how Borges is coaching Denard and what he is telling him to do under pressure in practice, but there needs to come to a point where Denard can recognize pressure and make two choices, run or throw the ball away. Unless it is a late in the game/half, do or die situation, he needs to just stop trying to force throws under pressure. I don't know who is to blame for that, but I think that is the obvious issue at this point.

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 28th, 2012 at 10:51 PM ^

I understand the OP's point, and it's one stated by many others: there are simple things QBs are expected to do.  Bur unfortunatly, Denard just does not do them well.  And just because something is simple, does not mean it's easy.  It's simple for Roh to make a tackle, but it's not easy for him to tackle Darius Willis in space.  And I heard no railing on Roh when he stood still in the secondary getting run passed during the Indiana game.  Everybody just went after GERG for such a mismanagment of personel and scheme.  But for some reason, people aren't putting some of the blame on Borges and just want to rail on Denard for being terrible.  

In another analogy, UM could put me in for QB.  I sure understand the simplicity of not forcing throws, but you know what, no matter what the coaches do, I will not be able to execute it.  But unlike me, Denard can be so dangerous when used properly.  And Borges has does this!  He has shown he can make the offense work with this personel.  But the inconsistancy is it's just getting ridiculous.  Constantly re-trying the same things that rarely work and expecting different results is just bad coaching

wolverine1987

September 28th, 2012 at 3:39 PM ^

And it was demonstrated by, you know, all of 2010. 2010, when Denard was in his first year of starting, after coming to Michgan as probably the rawest raw QB that we've ever seen. And in that year he had better stats against ND and all year than this year or last year. Was he great at throwing with pressure or throwing it away in 2010? Nope, he was just as bad as now.  But he was in those situations LESS that he has been the last year and a half. and that is offensive play calling, and offensive coaching. It is a fact, not an opinion, that 4 games into his third year as a starter he is a worse passer statistically than he was in 2010. What's your explanation for that? Because "well he's bad at passing" does not explain anything, because he's always been--but he had better results with different playcalling in 2010.

 

Sten Carlson

September 28th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^

"It is a fact, not an opinion, that 4 games into his third year as a starter he is a worse passer statistically than he was in 2010. What's your explanation for that?"

I discussed this in my post below.  I think this is because Borges will only know what he's dealing in terms of Denard's development as a passer by letting him pass from the pocket against a decent defense.  Other than a couple of throws against Bama, he did ok.  But, the Bama game isn't the best test as they're just that much better than Michigan all over the field.  So, that leaves the ND game.  Put the kid under the gun, see whether or not what you've seen from him in practice -- i.e., nice development as a passer -- translates to the game.  Well, the first half of the ND game gave Borges the game-time data that he need, and if you notice, he adjusted the blocking schemes and play calling.  Remember too, this isn't all on Denard.  Last season's OL was seemingly better at all facets of the game with Molk as a leader, and the WR's might not be as good as a group without Junior.

Borges knows all too well what opposing DC's are going to do to try to stop Denard: keep him from running, and make him pass.  They knew this in 2010 as well, and against better defenses, they had no counter punch.  Borges MUST try to develop a counter punch as best as he can.

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 4:30 PM ^

First let me start by saying, this UFR was well written and made solid points all around. 

To your comment about Denard having better stats in 2010:  It is a misleading statement at best.  Take Denard's stats during the B1G season (save the joke of the Illinois game) and they are quite similar to how he has played this year.  Denard racked up ridiculous statistics against inferior competition as has been the case the majority of his career.  Even counting the Illinois game, he still looks average at best in 2010.  Not to mention, he was knocked out of just about every game.

Denard has proven, no matter what offensive system he is in, he is a terrible decision maker and when he plays against a ranked opponent, it's like deja vu. 

The goal is to win the B1G plain and simple.  The bye week comes at the perfect time for Denard and the team to clear their minds and re-focus.  We are going to win the B1G and the civil war within the fanbase: Denard's fault vs Borges's Fault can unite!

wolverine1987

September 28th, 2012 at 4:57 PM ^

His passer rating was better, and in the most important, game saving/game killing category of all, interceptions, he was much better in 2010. Much better, as a fact. Denard thre fewer inceptions in his first year than last or now. That is just true.

It's a fact that, play calls and passing design are different now than it was on 2010. It's a fact that RR basically signaled Denard where to throw from the sidelines given certain formations that an opposing defense showed. It is a fact that he is coached differently. And it's a fact that his results, especialy interceptions, but also other stats, were better in 2010.

So we have those facts. What fact does the oppostion to this POV cite? Well, all I've read here is that Denard just isn't a good passer, and that no coach can make him a good passer. And since it's very unusual that a third year starter is either worse, or not better than he was as a  first year raw starter, and that first year guy threw far fewer incerceptions, I'm going to stick with my opinion that the difference is play calling and coaching.

snarling wolverine

September 28th, 2012 at 5:19 PM ^

You guys are arguing past each other.   You're talking about his entire season statistics in 2010.  He's talking about how Denard played from the start of Big Ten play onward in 2010, which does not includes those four games at the start where he was looking like RGIII.

Both of you are factually correct.  It's not contradictory to note that overall, he had better numbers in 2010 but that from the start of B1G play, he started playing more like he has under Hoke.  The question is whether he can get back to that September 2010 level.  He played the Neb/Ohio games last year at about it.

 

 

mpbear14

September 29th, 2012 at 9:29 AM ^

Please please please please please do not make me go pull Denards Stats in 2010 against the upper half of the B1G, or the B1G season in general.  Please....

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, Miss. St.

There is a common theme with Denard Robinson and the teams mentioned above in 2010... He played awful (as did the entire team).   

If you want me to pull the stats for those games, I will, but they are not pretty. 

Point being, people have an unrealistic vision of what Denard is capable of because they only remember what he did against lesser competition in the past and block how bad he was against ranked teams.

 But forget everything I Just said.  You are trying to make a claim that Denard Robinson was better in his first 4 games in 2010 than in 2012...  Do you think the quality of opponent has something to do with that?  Maybe just a little?  Put on your critical thinking cap, give it some thought, and get back to me.

 

newtopos

September 28th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^

Look at the regression made by the three year starter at Auburn under Borges' tutelage.  Senior year numbers: under 60% completion, 9:13 TD:INT ratio (worse year in every category).  Considering that the schools he has coached at in his 20+ year career of bouncing around generally get worse under his watch, why are Hoke fans thinking Borges will make things better?  You don't get promoted from the SEC to a year of not coaching to the Mountain West. We didn't pay big bucks to lure away a successful coordinator, like we did with Mattison. 

bronxblue

September 28th, 2012 at 4:29 PM ^

Not defending anyone either way, but some of that improvement could simply be due to having better teammates, physical maturation, more experience with the offense, etc.  I am still not sold on Borges as an above-average OC, and his QB development is not amazing.  He's had some successes but he also was the OC at Indiana for two seasons in which the QBs' combined numbers were 22/30 with barely 50% completion percentage.  Auburn took a steady decline after his one year with Jason Campbell, and claiming his one year with Cade McNown somehow validates his abilities to mold raw players in "elite" QBs is more than a little facetious.

Personally, I think Borges will be okay for UM once he gets his system installed with players he is used to, but he has never wowed me at other stops and I'm not sold he's not going to Debord away some games.  Everyone killed RR for not "making" his offense work with bad fits when he arrived, so I'm not going to cut Borges any slack for getting one of the more dynamic players in recent UM history, a player with clear strengths and weaknesses, and not really changing his system in a meaningful way to take advantage of those abilities.

Sten Carlson

September 28th, 2012 at 4:46 PM ^

I'm not going to cut Borges any slack for getting one of the more dynamic players in recent UM history, a player with clear strengths and weaknesses, and not really changing his system in a meaningful way to take advantage of those abilities.
I don't think it's an accurate assessment to say that Borges hasn't changed "his system in a meaningful way to take advantage of [Denard's] abilities." Borges has, but you have to remember that he also has the responsibility of developing the program as a whole, offensively, not just one player. To do this, and not stifle the overall development of the program, you have to have a give and take. Meaning, Borges has to try his best to get Denard to do WCO type things, to the best of his ability, while at the same time keeping enough non-WCO elements so as to play to Denard's strengths. As I said elsewhere, Borges isn't going to know how well those WCO elements have "set in" unless he gives Denard a chance to try to execute them in a game setting. Personally, I don't believe that Denard "can't" do the things that Borges is asking him and coaching him to do. I think that Denard isn't or is refusing to do them -- hence, his "accountability" comment after the ND loss. If Borges thought that Denard was completely inept at pocket passing, do you REALLY think that he'd go into a big game like the ND game and ask him to do it? I don't, and if you do, you're ascribing an insane level of stubbornness to Borges, and I just cannot believe Hoke would let him do that.

bronxblue

September 28th, 2012 at 6:52 PM ^

My point had more to do with comparing the treatment Borges receives for trying to install his offense and the uproar the last coaching staff received when they failed to "maximize the talent" as they installed their system. 

I do agree that Borges must install what he knows into this offense, and that guys like Fitz, the linemen, Gardner, etc. who will be there in the future deserve just as much attention and tutelage as Denard.  But I do take issue with the argument made here (not just by you) that Denard is somehow throwing INTs because he isn't "trying" hard enough or is screwing up because of some conscious decision on his part.  He's a 22-year-old playing at the highest level of college football, and he's making mistakes.  Everyone kills him for some of these picks, but we don't seem to harp on the situations where his mistakes may be caused by other people on the field.  As you noted, there are other people on the field for UM (10 to be precise), and they all have jobs to do like Denard.  But as we've seen, sometimes the linemen don't block and guys get through, or one of the RBs doesn't pick up a blitzer or can't get more than 2 yards on a run, or the WRs run bad routes or drop balls.  Those are all growing pains of the offense, and I doubt anyone would argue that problems on the offense are limited to the QB.

When Denard takes ownership of his failings, that's him acknowledging his made mistakes.  I don't read it as him saying he's messing up intentionally or otherwise acting against the wishes of his coach.  He's not going to throw his teammates under the bus, or question his OC for some horrible red-zone play calling (like Smith on a HB pass, those runs near the goalline, etc.).  He's a good kid who is a leader for this team, so he mans up and takes responsibility.  But where is Borges answering about his play-calling, perhaps admitting he makes mistakes or that maybe he's asking his players to do stuff they are not able to do.  Denard doesn't have to be superman to win at UM; nobody ever has been and this school is still the winningest in history.  But if the OC is making mistakes along with his players, you really can not heap all the blame on the latter and absolve the former.

Sten Carlson

September 28th, 2012 at 7:19 PM ^

You make some good points bronx.  Just to be clear, I am putting the INT's on Denard, but I am not down on him.  I think that he's just trying too hard, not that he's not trying enough.  From everything that we've heard from Borges, Denard gets too amped up, and wants so badly to make plays for Michigan, that he ends up making bad decisions.  The only thing that I think might be intentional is his unwillingness to do what the coaches say, and NOT force plays when he's pressured and/or when nothing is there.

To me, the reason that I don't think Borges is at fault is because of the stark contrast in between when Denard is "on" and when he's "off."  In the ND game I thought Denard commanded the offense as well as I've seen him.  He was throwing nice passes, on time, and even tucked-and-ran a time or two.  Then, all of a sudden, he gets pressure, and he seems to forget everything that he's been coached.  Those dramatic acute regressions aren't something that can be schemed around, or planned for.

I am sure Borges is far more frustrated and befuddled that us fans as he sees it every day.  He sees Denard execute flawless in practice, he sees him avoid a blitz, tuck-and-run, and I am sure even throw the ball away.  But, in the game, when the bullets are flying something happens to the kid and he just forgets his coaching.  Will he forever?  I don't know, I hope not, but we'll have to wait and see.  But, that being said, i don't think it's Borges' fault.

bronxblue

September 28th, 2012 at 9:01 PM ^

I think we are largely in agreement with Denard, but I'm just not willing to give Borges a complete break here.  Virtually every QB struggles with pressure; the good ones less so, but they also tend to have better teams around them so the pressure is far less prevalent on a per-play basis.

I am sure that Denard doesn't respond the way Borges wants or is used to seeing in practice, but I can't shake the feeling that Borges is still calling plays for an offense that he doesn't have right now.  If we have learned anything the last year, it is that this whole team does not have the personnel to run the offense Borges envisions - a pro-style/WCO with two tight ends and a back who can get you 3-4 yards a gash behind a big offensive line.  Maybe in 2-3 years UM will have a team like that, but right now it is a mix of spread kids and undersized youngsters.  I will agree that Denard is not an optimal QB for that offense and probably infuriates Borges, but I'm sure Denard is watching the plays coming in and wondering why he's lining up behind center at the 8-yard line instead of going shotgun and finding gaps in the defense.  I'm just arguing that the blame goes both ways, and given what I've seen of both Denard and Borges I'm not going to side with either as the "good" part of the equation.

NateVolk

September 28th, 2012 at 8:31 PM ^

One aspect of your excellent point you didn't allude to but was mentioned right when Hoke took over: the defense benefits greatly from playing against more power oriented running schemes as opposed to a spread every day in practice. I know Brian scoffed at the concept, but we couldn't argue with the improvement of last year's defense and you have to figure it was at least a partial factor.

Watch Arizona or better yet Oregon defend against a really good team that can power run the football. Yeah you can argue that Oregon doesn't care because of that offense. It mattered when they played USC last year, LSU last year, and Auburn in the BCS title game the year before.   The games that make or break your season, you have to compete in the trenches on defense. Especially in the Big Ten.

So there are vitally importan program-wide considerations for not just running a close cousin of the Rich Rod spread all day. These extend beyond worrying about matching outdated stats of one player. These considerations meant 11 wins last year.

mgoO

September 28th, 2012 at 8:52 PM ^

Nate-

Do you really think Oregon struggled against those teams because they defend the spread every day in practice? Nevermind don't answer. Communist football sucks, basketball on grass, rabble rabble.

You do realize they beat power running champions Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl last year, right?

Oh, and lost to Auburn which was running a no-huddle SPREAD at the time.

As a Michigan fan I hate to say it but Oregon would massacre Team 133 even with the crucial practice against our miserable I Form run game.

bronxblue

September 28th, 2012 at 9:11 PM ^

I'm not buying that argument, frankly.  Good offenses and good defenses make each other look bad; that's why they are good.  Oregon and Auburn both put up lots of yards against each other, and for all the talk about Auburn "beating" Oregon in the trenches, the game still came down to a last-second FG.  And Oregon was able to slow down Cam Newton's throwing about as well as anyone.  Same with USC last year - they lost by 3 and held USC to 3.7 yards per carry.  USC's front gave up 209 yards at 4.4 yards a clip, and Oregon actually had more total yards (though Barkley was good through the air). 

Oregon's defense gives up yards, in part, because that offense is so prolific that they are out there for long stretches of the game, and they tend to stiffen in the red zone more than people think (didn't give up a TD in over half of the red zone possessions in 2010, and a bit over 57% in 2011 - for comparison, UM was 51% last year).  So they can stop most offenses at a decent clip, but sometimes they lose.  Most teams do.  I don't think playing against a particular style makes you unable to handle different offenses in different contexts, only perhaps in a different manner than other teams do.  Unless you are willing to go to the logical conclusion that UM is screwed in the coming years against spread teams as the offense moves back to a pro-style, which would be (a) pretty fanciful, and (b) in direct opposition to what we've seen by most good defenses in CFB over time.

newtopos

September 28th, 2012 at 9:51 PM ^

Congratulations on your sophisticated analysis, which apparently consists of calling someone "butt-hurt." What was Lindley's completion percentage under Borges?  Did it ever break 60%? (Answer: No.)  Don't let facts get in your way.  How much "quantum improvement in performance, year over year" did McNown show under Borges?  His interceptions nearly doubled from his junior to senior year (6 to 11), and his completion percentage fell back to 58 percent.  And this is the one, 15 year old astounding success (the improvement from sophomore McNown to junior McNown) that you are hanging your hat on?  How did his QBs at Indiana, for example, do?  (Those teams under Gerry DiNardo went 3-9 and then 2-10.  Don't even think about a 60 percent completion rate.)  I suppose those were successes as well?  

bronxblue

September 28th, 2012 at 4:16 PM ^

The problem isn't that Borges is a bad OC, it's that Denard is a bad quarterback.

This type of illogical reasoning drives me crazy.  Denard is a good QB, but he isn't a good QB for this particular offensive system that Borges wants to run, just like Ryan Mallet would have been a horrible QB for RR's system.  They are apples and oranges, square pegs and round holes, and whatever other analogy you want to employ.

An OC is paid to run the best offense possible with the personnel he has; in this case, it isn't just Denard who is struggling.  There are plays in the offensive playbook that would work (see bubbles/lazers, more shotgun offense, etc.), yet Borges doesn't call those  He lines guys up with 3 TEs and try to run PA without establishing the running game at all.  That's on him. 

You say that it is "reasonable" to expect a QB to be able to run a PA under center.  But the issues with these plays aren't that Denard isn't trying to run the play, but that as soon as he takes the snap he's got 2 guys on him and nobody really open.  I watched John Navarre struggle with PAs as much as Denard when guys bore in on him.  We love to break down complex plays into a single data point, and Denard is the most obvious point there is.  But his struggles at times this year are due to a team effort, as are his successes.  Same with Lewan, Kovacs, Gallon, etc. 

But regardless, there isn't a "problem" here moreso than what afflicts all sports teams - sometimes what you call works and sometimes it doesn't, and the reason teams don't go undefeated is that someone has to lose. 

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 4:44 PM ^

An OC is paid to run the best offense possible with the personnel he has;

What University do you Athletic Direct at?


The sooner our fan base realizes this is the University of Michigan and not the University of Denard Robinson (or insert any player), the faster we will all regain our sanity.

We are transitioning to a style of football our head coach sees fit.  It is a process.  No one said it would be easy.  We just went 11-2 last year.  Borges was the OC for that team.  We put 14 pts on arguably the best team in the last 10 years of college football.  None of their previous 20+ opponents have scored more.  I'd say that's some pretty solid evidence he knows what he's doing with the personell he has.

Borges has 10 other people on the offense he has to worry about, eight of which are returning next year when Denard will not be here.  Not too mention, 80% of the remaining offensive players.   Al is not going to run the spread.  He isn't going to have an audible to a bubble screen etc etc. 

If you're going to be upset with Borges for running a play action pass, don't be mad at him because he expects his senior QB to be able to run it but be mad because Vincent Smith missed his block, or Denard Robinson didn't side shuffle the incoming Middle Line backer.  Play action pass with a blizting middle line backer should be a QB's wet dream, we just missed a block and didn't execute.  Denard should have thrown it away. 

I just watched Washington's QB throw it away probably a dozen times yesterday because of immediate pressue on play action.  I hope Denard was watching.

coastal blue

September 28th, 2012 at 4:58 PM ^

Here's the thing though: 

Borges is in the unique situation of having a bunch of guys who have played for two types of offense and they were almost all recruited for RR's offense. Almost all of them played under that offense for at least 2 seasons. 

So what bothers me, is that in a game like Notre Dame, when things aren't going well, why not throw a curve ball and bring out some of that 2010 stuff that you haven't shown before? Why not play up-tempo for a series or two? You've got the guys to do it, so why not? 

Also, everyone gets what you are saying. Denard is a senior quarterback and should know to throw it away, but guess what? He doesn't! So why waste time with those PA plays when you have no running threat and you know your quarterback is going to panic? 

We'll be fine going into conference play, as that game was a fluke loss, but I'm going to be extremely frustrated if we blow a game in the same fashion we did Iowa last year and we don't make the CCG.

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 5:43 PM ^

coastal, here's the thing though, when has our hurry up offense worked against a good team in the past?  If anything, Denard plays worse when hurried.

You have to think, the coaching staff knows this and probably wants to do the opposite.

With that being said, I agree, they should have at least tried it for a series or two.  It couldn't have been worse than what we were watching.

I'm with ya on the PA when we haven't established a run game but even with that being the case, if it's executed properly, (smith picks up the block or Denard shuffles) it would have been highly effective.  If Denard throws the ball away on each Play Action play, we aren't discussing it right now.  That's not on Al unless in practice they tell Denard not to throw it away.  No one has the answer to that, so we can't assume anything.

coastal blue

September 28th, 2012 at 6:02 PM ^

When have we tried it other than last year against Iowa (worked in the 4th quarter) other than Denard being a first year starting quarterback?

Has anyone on this site ever played a sport? Do people realize that just because things go one way one season, players can improve and change and this can improve the product on the field? Or is that a foreign concept?

coastal blue

September 28th, 2012 at 7:11 PM ^

So if you were a big man recruited to play in an up-tempo, 2007 Phoenix Suns type offense and then your coach was fired and the new guy wanted you to become a back to the basket post player, would you not feel that you could have become a different, probably better player in the system you were brought in to perform in? 

You might be a senior, have a few years in the system, but if that was never your strong suit, it may not matter. 

If you really did play 4 years of college basketball, you should be agreeing to every point I'm making. 

mpbear14

September 29th, 2012 at 9:33 AM ^

I would have either transfered or stayed.  If I decided to stay, I was making an informed decision about what I had to do to help my team transition into the new coaching staff.


And for the record, after my Freshman year, our coach retired and we hired a new guy.  I stayed...

Coastal, you make your arguments as if we didn't go 11-2 last year, and if we aren't going to win another game this year.  Calm down.

wolverine1987

September 28th, 2012 at 5:10 PM ^

"The sooner our fan base realizes this is the University of Michigan and not the University of Denard Robinson (or insert any player), the faster we will all regain our sanity."

This year is not about building on an offense that we will start running next year--this year is about winning this year--PERIOD. Why do you defend Borges when BORGES HIMSELF doesn't agree with you?? He's said over and over again that it is his obligation to put his players--this year--in the best position to succeed. By definition, Denard is not succeeding. Yes, some is his fault, and yes, he should throw the ball away, we all know that. Just like Borges knows what Denard can or can't do. Borges is failing HIS OWN STANDARD. Yet you seem to accect the failure because this is Michigan not the "University of Denard." Fail.

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 5:33 PM ^

And personally, I think he did put our players in the best position to win against ND.  Our players didn't execute.  We had 5 TO's and lost by a TD... 

And yes, this year is most certainly about building our offense towards the future.  It's one more step from last year.  Denard Graduates after this year and if Borges had your mentality, we would start from scratch next year with Bellomy, Shane or Devin...  The transition has to happen sometime.  Better now than later when we actually have a team full of elite level talent top to bottom (which will have in 2 years).

You also assume with your post as if there's some magical offense Denard has succeeded at, or some magical play.  There isn't!  He played bad against good competition in 2010 and again in 2011 and now in 2012.  It is what it is.  No play call, scheme or anything is going to change the fact that Denard makes bad decisions no matter what offense he is in.  With that being said, he is our best option right now to win football games and I'm confident he is good enough to win this year's B1G.  I can live with that.

Too many people take what Coaches say in interviews or to the media as bible.   News Flash, they lie to us. 

"Devin is the number 2 QB"  Whoops...

coastal blue

September 28th, 2012 at 5:42 PM ^

Why do people say he played "bad" against good competition in 2010?

Its more like "he didn't play up to the incredible standard that he set over the first 5 games". As a first year quarterback. With no defense. And no viable running back. And no special teams. 

His numbers, especially on the ground, were great against good competition. He routinely averaged 5 yards a carry against the best defenses we played. 

Did his passing suffer? Sure, but once again, when you look at where he was coming from the year before and what he did the first five games, you'd expect that. But he wasn't some hapless quarterback flapping balls into the band. 

I swear, its like people cannot comprehend the idea that maybe, just maybe, Denard Robinson could be a better quarterback in RR's offense, but since we're running Borges offense, he's not going to end up as good as he could have been. And that's okay, because that comes with the territory of a fresh start, reigning in Mattison instead of GERG, etc. 

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 5:47 PM ^

Shut out at half against Wisconsin, Don't even want to bring up Ohio State.  Shut out for 3 quarters against Mississipi state.  One TD in the first half of Iowa.  I believe the same for Penn State or close to it.

Only until teams had comfortable leads and sat in a prevent defense did our offense move the ball in 2010 against ranked opponents.  

I am going off the top of my head, so if I get fact check'd, I admit I'm probably off on some of my numbers, but the point still stands. 

I guess the myth that is 2010 still lives on.

coastal blue

September 28th, 2012 at 5:58 PM ^

Look at all the factors I listed. Its rare that a quarterback can make up for all of that. 

You're talking like someone who just looked at boxscore after the game and didn't even bother watching it. 

Fact is, we often moved the ball well, but were done in by penalties (Iowa), rookie starter (MSU), drops (Ohio). And just because someone has a bad half against Wisconsin (who last time they were in the Big House, we came back from 19, so I doubt they just stopped trying) doesn't mean he was terrible all year. 

Also, Illinois had a good defense that year and he lit them up as well. 

He wasn't a HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER against good teams. He was as good a run-based spread quarterback as you could ask for, especially being a first year starter.

 

mpbear14

September 28th, 2012 at 6:11 PM ^

We moved the ball well against good competition between the 30 yard lines in 2010... 

We are digressing greatly though. 

My point is, Denard has never been a good decision maker.  I'm basing this point on seeing him play under 2 coaches and 2 similar yet different offenses.   I'm not sure what your point is.  If it's "Denard is a good decision maker" then you're on an island by yourself.  Good luck.