Who to root for: MSU or Iowa?
So this question popped into my head this morning right after I woke up. Then it was brought up on WTKA on my way to work. I did some soul searching and this is the conclusion that I came to.
Ultimately, I want what is best for Michigan. If that means that I have to root for a hated rival so that Michigan can have a shot at the Big10 title and a Rose Bowl bid, then I will, but with some reservations.
My original thought was that I needed to root for MSU this weekend and then hope that MSU chokes away another game or two so that Michigan could tie for the championship.
The current pecking order for the Big10 is as such:
3-0 Iowa
3-1 Ohio State
3-1 Michigan State
2-1 Penn State
2-2 Wisconsin
2-2 Minnesota
1-2 Michigan
1-2 Indiana
1-2 Northwestern
1-2 Purdue
0-4 Illinois
All of my logic is assuming that we win out because otherwise we have essentially no hope of even sharing the title. Taking this into consideration, the order becomes this:
3-0 Iowa
3-1 Michigan State
6-2 Michigan
3-2 Ohio State
2-2 Minnesota
2-2 Penn State
1-2 Indiana
1-2 Northwestern
2-3 Wisconsin
1-3 Purdue
0-5 Illinois
We need Iowa to lose at least 2 and Michigan State to lose at least one. So, we root for Michigan State. Then, we root for OSU to beat Iowa and PSU. At this point, we have a 5-way tie. OSU-Iowa-PSU-MSU-Michigan. But, we still have to take into consideration the PSU-OSU game.
If PSU wins, the tiebreaker removes MSU because of their OOC record, then PSU because both Michigan and Iowa beat them, then Michigan due to head to head.
If OSU wins, MSU gets removed, and we have a 3-way tie between OSU-Michigan-Iowa. Then it comes down to the highest ranked of the 3 in the final BCS.
I would think that Michigan would be ranked the highest. Iowa would fall pretty hard this weekend if they lost to unranked MSU, while Michigan would climb back into the polls with a win against PSU. OSU beating Iowa then losing to Michigan would knock both OSU and Iowa pretty far down in the polls and Michigan would probably finish near the top 10.
In essence, if we root for MSU, we would also have to root for OSU to win the rest of their games except the Michigan game and then hope the BCS works in our favor this year.
Now, if we choose to root for Iowa this weekend, there is very little chance that they lose any game other than the OSU game at which point the Big10 title goes to Iowa. Assume however that OSU wins and Iowa gets upset by a non-contender. Then we need to consider both the outcome of the PSU-OSU game and the PSU-MSU game.
If PSU wins both, Michigan-Iowa-PSU, remove PSU, remove Michigan
If PSU beats only MSU, Michigan-OSU-Iowa, BCS Poll
If PSU beats only OSU, Michigan-MSU-Iowa, remove Michigan, remove MSU
If PSU loses both, Michigan-MSU-OSU-Iowa, remove MSU, BCS Poll
No matter who you root for Iowa needs to lose to OSU, OSU needs to win the rest of their games, and Iowa needs to lose an additional game for Michigan to be in a 3-way tie with them and MSU needs to lose 1 more game.
In summation, if Iowa wins, we are rooting for an upset; if MSU wins, we are rooting for PSU to beat MSU. The safer way to go is to root for MSU this weekend. I hate it as much as the next guy, but I will not pull a Dantonio. I will root for whatever is best for the team.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^
Maybe I'm giving up, but I don't think we're going to win the Big 10. It's very difficult to do it with 2 conference losses, but I'm sure it's happened. I would actually love to see Iowa win the Big 10 and get to the Rose Bowl or even NC game if we can't. Go Hawkeyes.
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:46 AM ^
If Iowa loses Saturday, we are right back in the race as long as we keep winning.
The optimist in me wants to root for Iowa.
The realist, however, realizes that while each remaining game on our schedule is either winnable as a slight dog (PSU, @Wiscy, OSU) or winnable as a strong favorite (@Ill, Purdue), the likelihood that we run the table is rather low.
So, do I don the "We're still in it" helmet or the Schaudenfreud helmet? I haven't decided.
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:21 AM ^
Michigan is not winning the Big Ten or a share. Go Hawkeyes because f#%k Michigan State.
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:21 AM ^
I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa drop a single game in conference this year, but I still see them being the Conference champs. A one loss (or no loss) Iowa going into the Rose Bowl would look pretty good. Let's just hope it's not another Rose Bowl blowout by the Pac 10.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:03 AM ^
All the Big Ten needs is somebody other than USC in the Rose Bowl. Oregon, fine, Cal, fine (though nearly impossible now), anybody but USC, fine. The Trojan formula just completely derails a Big Ten attack, that is, until UM gets this thing in full gear... a new day is coming.
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:12 PM ^
v. B10 in the Rose Bowl it will be a bloodbath again.
Pete Carrol totally outcoached Ferentz in their Orange Bowl meeting and that USC team was not nearly as talented as this one. They had a great QB in Palmer but not the wealth of 5 stars across the roster that they do now.
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:27 AM ^
If msu beats Iowa, they could very easily win out and I'll be damned if msu even gets a share of the b10 this year. Go Hawks!
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:34 AM ^
With the exception of seeing Michigan win out this year, I can't think of anything I'd rather see this football season come to than an undefeated Iowa team playing for the MNC, (and beating some SEC team like a red-headed step child on the way to a victory).
October 21st, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^
While the BigTen title is what we should always be striving for, I'm looking at the probabilities rationally and assuming not so much.
In that case, we want Iowa to win.
- Iowa stays high in the polls. The BigTen doesn't have another team capable of staying high in the polls.
- Michigan State loses. We'll be competing with them for bowl placement.
- Michigan State loses. Apparently a lot of people on this board like that.
- I feel like our close loss to a highly ranked Iowa team does more for us than our close loss to a meh Michigan State team.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:46 PM ^
I think it's better for Michigan, and the Big 10, for Iowa to win.
Besides... when in doubt, and unless you have a compelling reason... FYS is FYS for a reason.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:46 PM ^
and with State's schedule this year, we have vitually no chance to win the conference. I'll be rooting for Iowa.
For anyone entertaining thoughts of actually pulling for Sparty I suggest you relax, think back to last year, and recall the idiot Dantonio and the loser bill board guy from Sparty.
Need say no more.
October 21st, 2009 at 11:46 PM ^
I'd rather not have MSU leading the Big Ten. Ever. I don't think I could withstand the smug coming out of East Lansing (and I can't find a video with the South Park reference. Crap.).
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:05 AM ^
Are you for real? If MSU wins, they have the inside track to the Big Ten title. I'm guessing they'd finish 6-2 (loss to Penn State) and would be on top in most if not all tie-breaker scenerios. You think State fans are obnoxious now...
Also, I don't think we're going to win the conference. We'll probably have 1 more conference loss. Even if we win out, I don't know how we would fare in the tie-breaker scenarios.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:06 AM ^
MSU with a win here would be in contention for the B10 title, a loss here would probably ruin their chances this.
Also I want Sparty to lose every week unless they are playing ND or OSU.
That said Go Hawks.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:09 AM ^
Hawkeyes!
Is the line still even for the game?
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:12 AM ^
1) We need to beat Penn State on saturday
2) Sparty needs to lose once more which I'm not worried about except that...
3) Iowa needs to lose 2 games. After Sparty on saturday, they only have one more tough game (at OSU), so we would need a sparty victory this weekend.... and I hate rooting for them, especially against a team like Iowa, who I am pulling for this year.
4)We would have to win out, and we would have to account for OSU's loss.
Conclusion: Nothing is impossible, but come on. Look at our remaining schedule. Can you realistically see Iowa losing twice while we make it through PSU, Purdue, Illinois, Wisky, and OSU unscathed? I love this team, and no doubt they have the ability to win each game left on the schedule, but I dont think that they have the ability to win ALL of them. (That made sense in my head. I hope it does to you all, too)
Best case scenario right now: M finishes in the middle of a logjam of 2-loss teams, but most likely we will finish with 4-4 in the conference, which is fine by me, so long as we can finally beat the buckeyes.
Also, I'm pulling for the Hawkeyes. I would love to see them win out this year.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:17 AM ^
I'm pulling for Iowa all the way.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:20 AM ^
For all the reasons that have been stated above I want Iowa to win. The Big Ten title is not gonna happen, and I DO NOT wanna listen to State fans any more than we are already going to have to after losing to them two years in a row. I have no beef with Iowa, and the only times I ever root for MSU are against ND, OSU, or if it directly benefits Michigan.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:24 AM ^
Go Hawkeyes.
No way in hell I'd ever root for MSU.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:43 AM ^
What about MSU-OSU or MSU-ND. I generally root for MSU in the OSU game and very occasionally in the ND game.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:18 AM ^
In that case I choose to either take the moral high road and root for neither. I root for it to be an incredibly ugly game, but unless it's going to be a huge upset (i.e. OSU undefeated vs. terrible MSU team, etc.) I'm indifferent.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 AM ^
For the plane carrying Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, and Osama bin Laden to explode in a crash at midfield during the coin flip?
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:19 AM ^
I root for OSU against MSU. My position is that MSU is litle brother and has no place at the big boys' table. I don't want Sparty beating OSU went we are not.
I'm now going to go smack myself for writing that cheesy sentence, but it's true.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:30 AM ^
Iowa is the Big Ten's last chance for the NC game. Also, I can't stand to listen to Sparty fans brag. This one is a no-brainer for me. Sorry, but I really want to see a typical late-season Sparty Swoon, like 5-7 or 4-8 for the season. Let's see what they do with their "bragging rights" then.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:38 AM ^
The people are nice there, and the town is awesome.
Plus its hard for them to go all LOLBIG10TITLE DANTONIOBITCHES seeing as they're far away from Michigan, and Dantonio isn't their coach.
It's not that I hate Michigan State, I just dislike Dantonio. If John L was still their coach...
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:16 AM ^
Dantonio is a shit stain on the coaching profession. I've hated him ever since he took things personally and publicly attacked Mike Hart, an amateur athlete, in the press. To help put things in perspective, Mike Gundy flipped out because he felt that a reporter was doing that with one of his own players! And I've mentioned this before, but when Woody Hayes was not going crazy from high blood sugar and punching players, as far as I know he NEVER publicly criticized other teams' players, even Michigan's. As shady as he may be, you'll never see that from Tressel. Dantonio basically broke a long-held unwritten rule and was given a free pass by the media because they like to see him as the messiah who brings order and success to MSU.
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:51 AM ^
I have to pull for Iowa. You'd have to ask yourself,
who would you rather have represent the Big 10 in either
the Rose Bowl or possibly NC game? Iowa or MSU?
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:19 AM ^
End of Story.
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:24 AM ^
I really can't stomach this MSU football team having a chance at winning the Big 10. (they just aren't that good)
I do think Iowa may lose a couple before its all over though.
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:11 AM ^
My eyes went crossed-eyed after reading that. Either way, you cheer for Iowa to win out.
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:20 AM ^
I know the ultimate goal is the Big Ten title, but let's just be happy with the progress of our team and let those dreams die for this year.
HOWEVA
If we win out and Iowa wins out, then there's a chance of a 2006 scenario with Iowa in the NC (which I wouldn't mind seeing at all) and us in the Rose Bowl (no conference title, but the Rose Bowl nonetheless). I think we'd have to look pretty good to still get that bid, even if we win out (which is highly improbable itself).
I really don't think that's going to happen, but I think it's more probable than winning the conference title.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:24 AM ^
Actually, due to the recent change in the BCS, that chance of Iowa to MNC and Michigan to the Rose Bowl is almost nonexistent. If the Rose Bowl loses a Pac10 or BigTen champ to the MNC, they have to take a qualifying non-BCS school.
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:34 AM ^
I thought that too, but looked it up to make sure. That starts in 2011.
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:21 AM ^
IF they go unbeaten, along with Texas and the Fla/Bama winner then the BCS has another crap sandwich to deal with.
Lots of ifs, but not out of the realm of possibility.
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:23 AM ^
I har what the OP is saying about Big 10 title. I have been saying for two weeks that we would be 8-2 heading into Wisco, so I believe we remain contenders. But, obvs, we need to win out and that's the first focus.
I know from a tiebreaker standpoint, we want to pull for MSU.
But, I am smitten with Iowa. I echo any sentiments in this thread promoting them as national contenders. If Michigan cant win the Big 10 in whatever year, I would much rather see an upstart (even if it is MSU, frankly) as opposed to ohio state. Its kinda neat seeing a new Big 10 not only lead the pack, but become prime BCS Title contenders.
So, an Iowa win wuold hurt are small chances at winning the league title, but I am kinda leaning for iowa here. besides, they make other QBs look terrible, they're going to knock around Cousins and win the game. I'm betting them, so thats another reason to Go Hawks this weekend.
I guess there is a little Mark Dantonio in all of us, if we pull for Iowa, even though it hurts our chances. Oh well.
October 22nd, 2009 at 7:35 AM ^
To summarize my position, I will paraphrase a Bo quote: "To hell with Sparty."
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:14 AM ^
But MSU is going to drub Iowa by two to four touchdowns. Iowa has been surviving by using the barely serviceable Stanzi, having other teams break down (PSU, UM's five TO's, Wisconsin having major gas problems)--and Sparty is being their workmanlike Dantonio selves.
MSU 32 Iowa 12
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:26 AM ^
The word is "Fight! Fight! Fight! for IOWA,
Let every loyal Iowan sing;
The word is "Fight! Fight! Fight! for IOWA,"
Until the walls and rafters ring (Go Hawks!)
Come on and cheer, cheer, cheer, for IOWA
Come on and cheer until you hear the final gun.
The word is "Fight! Fight! Fight! for IOWA,"
Until the game is won.
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:30 AM ^
The Hawkeyes need to lose three times. The BCS standing tie-breaker kicks in after overall record. In the OSU-Iowa-Michigan three way tie, OSU is out due to winning percentage (tie-break clause 5c), then it reverts to Iowa-Michigan head-to-head (5d).
More:
http://mvictors.com/?p=5198
Big Ten tie-break rules:
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102204aad.html
I'd root for MSU to give these guys a shot to get a ring.
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:31 AM ^
I root for whatever helps Michigan....up to a point. It doesn't really directly affect Michigan if Iowa loses, it just increases the probability of a Big Ten championship by small fractions of a percentage point. Not worth it. Besides, I've always liked Iowa and would be more than happy to see them represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. Definitely will not be pulling for Sparty.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:17 AM ^
to shit themselves. Go Iowa.
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:20 AM ^
The best scenario for Michigan is that both the Wolverines and the Hawkeyes win out. In that case, the Hawkeyes have a pretty good shot at being seeded into the N.C. game, in which case the Wolverines would get an at-large berth in the Rose Bowl, provided the Spartans lose at least twice more, including this weekend.
Under just about any plausible scenario where the Hawkeyes have 2 losses, Michigan would lose the tie-breaker, and the Hawkeyes are highly unlikely to lose 3 times. If any Big Ten team has just 1 loss, that team obviously goes to the Rose Bowl ahead of Michigan.
So the best scenario for Michigan, albeit still unlikely, is that Michigan and Iowa win out. Any other scenario is less advantageous to the Wolverines.
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:23 AM ^
You have to root for Iowa! Have you seen Sparty's schedule? If they pull off a win this weekend they could easily coast to a season ending showdown at home vs. the Nittany Lions with a Big Ten title on the line.
If that does occur and they manage to pull it out, do you think we could successfully petition the Big Ten to put an asterisk next to their entry in the record book because they didn't play OSU and had us, Iowa, and Penn St. at home? That's so ridiculous!!! Their toughest road game was at Wisconsin, which they lost!! I'm going to be screaming this from the rooftops on the radio and I fully anticipate Mike Valenti (who really is the biggest douche I've ever laid ears on) to dismiss me as a Michigan homer but there's no way to deny that it's a creampuff schedule.
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:08 AM ^
When we beat Sparty I like to see them win out (makes our win look better). but when we loose i want them to loose every other game. so GO HAWKS! im so sick of listening to the sparty fans crawl out from under their rock and puff out their chests once a decade (in this case twice) when they have a decent year and when the ball bounces their way and they evade another loss to the big brother.
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:21 AM ^
My 2nd team in the Big 10.
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:47 AM ^
Iowa. It's a long-shot to be in Big Ten title contention at this point and more likely for State. I'd much rather see the Hawkeyes get pasted by USC in the Rose Bowl than have Sparty on t.v. with flowers in their mouth.
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:08 PM ^
After spending the weekend in Iowa City a few weeks back I decided that I will root for the Hawkeyes against every single team except Michigan for as long as I live. Great town! Great People! Great Weekend!
October 22nd, 2009 at 1:21 PM ^
Want Michigan to have a shot at winning the B10 title but would rather see Iowa beat Sparty badly to disrupt any potential momentum Dantanio may have in recruiting. It is never a good idea to depend on other teams to help you win a conference title. RR can use lessons learned this year to motivate future teams that they need to take care of buiness every week. IF the team runs the table from here and misses a Big Ten title they will have plenty of motivation to get it done next year.
