Which struggling blueblood comes out on top in the Playoff Era first?

Submitted by Human Torpedo on September 17th, 2021 at 4:37 PM

Yeah, I know people on here have reservations about considering Miami a blueblood, but their 5 AP national titles in just 2 decade period is quite remarkable and regarding solely AP Poll crowns is more than double what we have (we're not like MSU after all where we count non-major national title sectors since 1950)

Anyway here's the tweet: Texas, USC, Michigan, Miami?

https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1438945784859226113

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skatin@the_palace

September 17th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^

I actually think you're right on this, RiB. I think with the option to pick between two Texas SEC schools, heading to Texas over A&M makes sense. I think A&M and Mizzou are the real losers of OU and Texas joining the SEC club. 

OU still recruits at a pretty national level so they'll lose more games but I think they'll stay in the top group that rotates taking shots at Alabama and Georgia similar to LSU and Ole Miss albeit more consistent and a better run operation than both of those programs. 

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MgofanNC

September 17th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^

Open what doors? The same ones it seems to have opened for A&M? They are already TEXAS. There issues with recruiting in the state that they own is Wins and Loses. I don't see a switch to losing as much if not more but to SEC schools now making them a hotter destination. I guess maybe if they are pulling in more money as a result of being in the SEC that helps(?)... but aside from that the best kids want to play for winners and Texas hasn't been a regular winner since the playoffs started. Not sure how 7-5 seasons in the SEC changes that for them. 

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Red is Blue

September 17th, 2021 at 7:44 PM ^

Sure wins and losses are a significant part of the issue.  But exposure is also an issue.  Players want to be in games with national audiences on TV.  In the B12 they have one game annually (Oklahoma) that they can count on to garner much national interest.  They'll be replacing games against Baylor, TCU, Kansas... With games against much bigger name opponents. 

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BleedThatBlue

September 18th, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^

I think what’s going to happen, particularly USC or Texas, is that they will get Urban and dominate. Urbans flame is already dimming at jax. I am more inclined to say Texas for the fact they give Sark a chance before he fails. Those two teams are a coach away from being significant. They have the advantage with a rich bed of talent in their back yard and their names. I think Texas will be helped out by going to the sec as they’re in a “real” conference now.  

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stephenrjking

September 17th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^

USC is in the best position, easily. They still recruit really well, don’t have nearly the competition for talent in their region that others do, play in a P5 but not brutally hard conference, and have a unique combination of big market attention without the pressure.

One good coaching hire and they’ll be back.

Texas has the brand and the talent pool. There’s a lot of pressure and organizational dysfunction that makes things tough. There’s also more competition for talent. I think they’re better positioned than we are, but a lot can still go wrong.

Miami could strike gold with the right coach, but I think the lane they used to build on has been crowded out by the SEC. The good news is that they can roll the dice more on a coach to find the right one; Michigan and Texas can’t afford a guy having rough years, but Miami is still Miami I’d that happens. 

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Kevin13

September 17th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^

USC definitely comes down to the right hire. That school is in a recruiting hotbed and they still have a big draw so they can easily bounce back. 
I think Texas is closer to really slipping. They don’t have much success now in a weak conference and have a lot of competition for the talent in their state. If they don’t improve very quickly they will struggle big time in the SEC.

OU needs to learn to play defense or they will just get out scored in the SEC

Michigan might not be too far away as I think our new coaches are paying huge dividends. We have a ways to go to catch OSU but think we can get past the likes of PSU and Wisconsin’s on a regular basis in the near future 

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oriental andrew

September 17th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^

Agree with this take, of the same mind as you. USC has all the structural advantages you could ask for - weak conference, fertile recruiting grounds, historical success, brand name/cachet. They get the right coach/staff and they could get hot fast. 

I think Michigan is close - maybe closer than we think. Granted, we still have osu to contend with and our conference is no cakewalk, but I still contend that we are no worse than a very close 3rd in terms of overall talent (I'd contend that we're a solid 2nd, but I have no inclination to care about psu's recruiting/talent). 

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jdemille9

September 17th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^

stephenrjking,

 

Curious to get your opinion on what it will take for Michigan to get a national title win. 

I'm not in the "Fire Harbaugh" camp (or the "keep him because he's our only hope" camp) but things definitely are not as far along as I thought they'd be in year 7. 2016 seemed like our best chance and since then it seems like we're more than just a few pieces away from beating OSU (at least half the time). I don't see any reason why we can't recruit and compete at OSU's level, we still get elite recruits every year despite the lack of consistency on the field and 0 wins vs. our chief rival in damn near a decade. 

I'd like to believe we can get to the playoffs and maybe even win a national title, but the optimism I had when Harbaugh was hired has faded considerably. At this point, I'd be happy if we could just lose to OSU in a competitive fashion. 

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WeimyWoodson

September 17th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^

If Wilton was healthy in 2016 Michigan would have beat OSU and again in 2017 with a better functioning qb. 
 

An elite qb has hindered Harbaughs ability to win the B10 and make the playoffs. In this era for teams to be really successful an elite qb is needed to go with a team that can score quickly. Watching the Washington game Saturday I was impressed with how Michigan could pound it but those potential long drives are risky when playing an offense that only needs 45-90 seconds to score. 

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stephenrjking

September 17th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^

So, national championships are obviously the ultimate goal. Spent my first 18 years longing for one, spent the last 23 longing for another.

We're pretty far away. Yes, there is some talent. But the last 5 years have seen an extreme centralization of talent among the top 5 or 6 programs at the expense of all others. Unfortunately, that list of top programs includes Ohio State and does not include us. 

Getting there would require a sustained level of success on the field greater than our current level AND a significant increase in recruiting. Those are tough asks under any coaching regime at Michigan, not just Harbaugh. 

My guess is that Michigan will not approach a national title in the current college football paradigm, which we could call the "early playoff era."

We had a couple of chances in the BCS era, but Carr was edged to the pole by Jim Tressel and we never capitalized on teams that possessed enormous talent. And BCS-era Michigan teams were just as talented as others in the country. I get a bit gunshy about how the 2006 season ended, particularly for both Michigan and Ohio State, but many of the same guys on that Michigan team beat many of the same guys on that Florida team the next year, and when you look at the talent on Michigan's roster compared to the USC team we lost handily to, we match up strongly on paper, but were outcoached.

In the playoff era, our chance to elevate to the upper echelon required a win over Ohio State in 2016 and/or 2018. 16 was really a missed opportunity, a talented team with some Hoke players and some flaws but really putting things together. Beat OSU that year and Michigan might not look good against Clemson or whomever... but making the playoff is a building block for recruiting classes and program momentum. Things broke down pretty badly in 2017, but that could have been overcome with a strong 2018. And it looked like we had it going into the OSU game, a final chance to prove that Harbaugh, still then a new-ish coach, was on a steady rise, building a power...

And we got smoked. The 2018 OSU game basically ended any chance Michigan has of competing for a title in the early playoff era; it was disastrous.

But, this era may change soon. The combination of NIL rules and a possible expanding playoff will likely change the paradigm significantly. It is impossible to know how, exactly, but change will come, and Michigan is in a reasonable position to capitalize on that change, simply by being a strong program with a great fanbase and real national cachet. 

Whether that happens under Harbaugh, or with someone else, or with either, or never at all, is impossible to tell. But I think the days of Michigan competing for national titles will require a bit of a change in how the program approaches football and a large change in the paradigm of college football before it will occur. 

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joeismyname

September 18th, 2021 at 1:01 AM ^

We will be back to being competitive with OSU, Harbaugh had us there, and then Ryan Day seemed to launch them further with his offense, but I see a renewed confidence in Harbaugh and the players. I’m really not sure how much the players wanted it the last couple seasons, almost like they went into the OSU games expecting to lose. I think we will beat them sooner than later, there is a real hunger for this win and, a team with Michigan’s talent, you can’t underestimate that hunger, especially since it’s a home game this year too.  I understand we fans want to see a win, but you know the players want it more than ever, and fans also need to stop selling their tickets to OSU fans. It makes me sick to watch all that red in Michigan stadium pretty much every other year since RichRod has been here. We just need that win, and we are likely playoff bound sooner than later as well. 

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Richard75

September 18th, 2021 at 2:15 AM ^

Never underestimate Miami.

Of all the schools we’re discussing, they’re the only one that’s won big under several different coaches over the past few decades. That suggests that they don’t need to find lightning in a bottle; they just need someone good.

I mean, everyone always talks about USC, but Pete Carroll is the only hire who’s had sustained success there going back to John Robinson’s first tenure 40 years ago. Maybe it’s harder to win there than people realize.

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jasgoblue

September 17th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^

UCLA. I know UCLA is not on the list, but Texas, USC, Michigan, and Miami (YTM) are not in a good place program wise or conference structure wise.

I could see UCLA in the playoffs well before these other 4.

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skatin@the_palace

September 17th, 2021 at 5:23 PM ^

UCLA is my non Michigan team I'm following this season and as much fun as they have been, I do not think they are any closer than Michigan, Texas, or USC. They'd be in a tier 2 group with Miami. They've won 2 games, though exciting, have not demonstrated an ability under Chip Kelly to actually be a true threat. I think CFB is more fun when they're good, but they aren't usurping Oregon as the team to beat and ASU is the 2nd best team in that conference and also plays in the South. They could crash a Rose Bowl if Oregon makes it to the CFB but I think that's their ceiling for at least another 3 years if it all goes correctly under Chip Kelly. 

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MgofanNC

September 17th, 2021 at 7:43 PM ^

Don't have it in front of me but my understanding is that UCLA will graduate (or lose to the draft) a lot of talent after this year. If they can beat the Ducks (big if but the Ducks seem to have the injury bug) I could see them making a strong case for a playoff spot this season (Clemson, OSU, and either Georgia or Bama will have at least one loss). By default, I think that makes them a playoff team this year. Next year they will drop to the middle of the PAC. But maybe they get a recruiting bump from this year's showing?

Also is ASU widely considered ahead of Utah in the PAC? Honestly asking since I don't pay much attention to the west coast. Season in and out I seem to hear more about Utah than ASU. 

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Wings Of Distinction

September 17th, 2021 at 4:56 PM ^

It really seems like we are finally getting all the right pieces in all the right places.

From coaching staff, to qb depth and talent, to recruiting.

So I'll say, It's gonna be Michigan! Michigan, again!

Lord willing and the creek don't rise.... ;)

GO BLUE

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huntmich

September 17th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^

Honestly, assuming we can get a qb to play in the next couple years, which I don't think is a huge ask based on our qb room right now, what are people thinking is holding us back? If Mccarthy is who we think he is, this team could be a year or two from competing.

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Perkis-Size Me

September 17th, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^

USC by several country miles. They play in a wide-open conference where their ceiling allows them out-recruit everybody. Yes, Oregon is a very, very good program, but if you get the right coach at USC who knows what he's doing, can coach and recruit, then you can beat them at least half the time. USC's problem since Carroll left has simply been that its made bad hires. There is no excuse for whoever coaches that program to not be able to win at least ten games a year every year. 

Texas still can't get out of its own way and its in the freaking Big XII. You think its going to get any easier on them when they inevitably have to share a division with not just Oklahoma, but Ala-freaking-bama? Good luck. I get that they're going to be making even more money, but if they want to win anything, they'd better do it quick, because once they join the SEC they're toast. 

Michigan is not going anywhere until it exorcises its OSU demons, and I believe they can do it when I see them do it. 

 

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MacMarauder

September 17th, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^

USC seems like the obvious one because they have such a good recruiting area and the weakest conference.

Maybe it's recency bias because they got killed last weekend by a middling SEC team, but it's hard to think moving to the SEC will help Texas

Michigan, with us the biggest negative is that if Harbaugh can't do it, can anyone? Plus there is the perception that we are stuck in our ways and will never be a totally modern football factory

Miami, not really a true "blueblood" IMO since prior to the 80s they weren't a factor in cfb, but I do think they could get to the top level again. The Florida teams seem to rotate success between them and it could swing back to Miami again.

 

So if I have to rank them I'd say USC #1, Miami #2, Michigan #3, Texas #4 

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skatin@the_palace

September 17th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^

I've seen a few comments for USC and on the surface level it makes sense but I do not think that's the case. Recruiting is more national than ever which means that Southern California will continue to be raided by the best teams in their conference (Oregon, ASU, Utah) but also by the SEC (Alabama/Bryce Young), Clemson (DJ Uiagalelei), as well as the B1G (we've made pulls out of there and are actively working on Domani Jackson; OSU pulled Olave from under their noses too).

They also have a level of dysfunction in their administration that prevents them from getting out of their own way. Heritage hall is considered by many to be one of messiest athletic departments in the country along with Miami. The fact that they're a private school and do not have community or political pressure to be good like Michigan or Texas definitely puts them at a disadvantage. 

Obviously Texas has similar problems but they are the flagship school in a FOOTBALL state so that helps but playing in the SEC with Georgia becoming a deathstar akin to Alabama in practice on top of not being able to get past OU who will also be joining them does no bode well for them. 

For us (Michigan), we have to beat a deathstar and that's about it. PSU is peer in this but James Franklin doesn't seem to have that je ne sais quois to get them over the hump. Meanwhile we still have to get out of our own way. 

In an unbiased view, I do think we have the best shot of making it to the playoff. The PAC12 is closer in talent level by team than I think we realize and with the lack of respect the conference has, they wouldn't get in with 1 loss. I do not think Miami is going to catch Clemson maybe ever. Texas just cranked the difficulty to diabolical. We somehow have worked our way back into MAYBE a 2 year window, counting this year, to beat OSU and gain enough momentum back to at least give ourselves a real punchers chance. 

On the whole, I'd give Michigan slightly better odds than the field but wouldn't say it's likely for any of the teams listed. As weird as it is to say, Iowa or Ole Miss probably have the best chance at making the CFP among the teams who have not made it to the round of 4. 

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Blue@LSU

September 17th, 2021 at 5:57 PM ^

Do we know which division Texas will play in? If they are in the East I could see them possibly having a chance at making the playoffs. Getting by Georgia is not impossible and even if they lose to Bama in the SEC championship game, the committee has already shown a willingness to put 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. 

I do think there are going to be some opportunities for new teams in a few years. What happens when Saban retires. Will Bama be able to continue the death star after he leaves? Is Day going to be able to continue OSU's domination and/or will he even stay at OSU if the NFL comes calling? Will Dabo be able to keep Clemson's run going without a top-tier QB? 

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MadMatt

September 17th, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^

Because of the sheer bloody-minded randomness of the CFB universe:

U.S. Military Academy  (Don't think they're a blue blood?  Check out their teams from the 40s.)

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brad

September 17th, 2021 at 7:05 PM ^

On a similar note, I predict Purdue takes down ND tomorrow.  Notre Dame has secretly been playing like ass and accidentally winning, and I'm not saying Purdue is good or anything, but ND's heretofore cloaked incompetence will catch up with them tomorrow.

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