What would it take - QB

About a week ago, I posted to start a discussion on the offensive line.   That seemed well received so here is a second on quarterback.    I think there is general agreement that the two biggest question marks on offense are: 1) Will we have a quarterback step up; and 2) will the coaches also step up in game planning/playcalling etc.    This post takes on the first question.   I think about that question in two parts.   The first is, “what does it mean to step up?” and the second is how realistic is it to assume that someone will in fact step up.

There are at least 3 teams (Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State), who have a very real chance to score 40+ points on us.   That means that if we don’t have a quarterback who can leas the team to more than 40 points a game, we are capping our potential at no greater than 9-3.   To me, stepping up means putting the team in the position to be in every game.   Obviously this isn’t all on the qb, but having good enough players at wide receiver, running back and offensive line, as well as a coaching staff willing to take advantage of those pieces, means nothing if the qb can’t take advantage.   

This means we need more than a game manager.   We need a quarterback who brings at least four things to the table.   First, they recognize the plays that are there.   They make the correct calls and don’t throw to a double teamed receiver when someone else is wide open.   Second, they complete the throws that are there.   Between 2018 and 2019, Shea Patterson increased his total yards by over 400 yards from 2600 to 3061.   Unfortunately at the same time, his completion percentage fell from 65% to 56%.    In 2019, twenty three college quarterbacks had completion percentages of 65% or better.   Third, they can’t make too many mistakes.   A quarterback who can do all of that might get us to 8 or 9 wins, but they probably are not going to get us to 10+.    For that, we need a quarterback who brings something more.   For instance, they need to not just make completions, they need to put there team mates in position to make plays.   They need to throw it when and where their teammates can get yards after the catch.   If not that, they need to be able to extend (and then actually make) plays when their protection breaks down.   Other skills they could bring could be an ability to run the read option very well, or to consistently make those deep throws.   The first three skills can make a good quarterback, but to move to that next level, they will need to bring more.

What makes me hopeful is that I think we have at least two quarterbacks who have the tools to be at least good quarterbacks this year.   The question is, do either  of them have the potential to be more than that.  

Cade McNamara, the current leader for the starting role was a 4 star, ranked as the 7th best qb overall and the 268th player overall.   (Rankings are from 247 composite).

With regards to my first criteria, can he make the right play there is some very positive evidence.   In his hello post, his football smarts were emphasized.  “He shows a great understanding of offensive concepts and can recognize defenses at the line of scrimmage”.   One of the things that Brian noted in his Rutgers UFR is that McNamara was much better at making reads than Milton.  “Milton got filed for zero RPOs, zero zone reads, and zero screens in this game. McNamara had six screens, four RPOs, and three zone reads. I may have missed something here or there but I mean… one of these had speed in space elements and the other absolutely did not.”  Matt Weiss also noted "You can say he's not enough of this or not enough of that, but at the end of the day, he's really smart. He makes great decisions. He processes things very fast, and his accuracy and arm strength are more than enough to win with."
With regards to accuracy, the positive is that he threw for 75% against Rutgers.   The question marks are, it was Rutgers and his best season percentage completion in high school was 62.8% in high school.   He also does not appear to make many mistakes.   He had 5 TDs to no interceptions last year, and for his high school career, he had 146 TDs against 35 interceptions.   Dropping his freshman year in HS, it becomes 129 TDs vs 25 interceptions.

A 60% to 65% completion ratio with a good touchdown to interception ratio doesn’t seem like an unrealistic expectation, but does he bring anything extra that makes you think he can lead us to 40+ points against Ohio State and Wisconsin?  One of the strengths in addition to feel for the game/football smarts is his ability to throw under pressure.   He is praised for his ability to throw on the move, get rid of the ball quickly and to stand in and make a throw while getting hit.   If you go back and look at the Rutgers game, he showed all of those abilities.   The only question is, can he do it against a better defense.  What are the big question marks? First, can he run?   For a guy who seems to thrive on scrambling, there is very little evidence to suggest he is going to be much of a runner.   Arm strength.   These are some of the things analysts had to say about him:

“good decision maker out of the gun … accurate passer who is able to fit the ball into tight windows… poised and confident … touch and timing. Changes ball speeds nicely. …Marginal height and strength. Not sure he has elite arm power."

" …moxie …competitive edge …not going to wow you with mind-boggling athleticism or arm strength but he's not going to make mistakes. … heady, skilled quarterback"

His biggest competition is 5 star freshman J.J. McCarthy.   We’ll start with his qb coaches Fred Jacksonesque description: "McCarthy reminds me of a guy that throws like (Drew) Brees but moves around like Baker (Mayfield).”   It sounds like an exaggeration, then you read his sophomore year stats: 3448 yards with a 76% completion percentage and 39 TDs to just 4 interceptions.   His completion percentage took a hit his senior year at IMG falling to 57%, but he had zero interceptions to 16 touchdowns and led IMG to an 8-0 record and a mythical national high school title.

Unlike McNamara, there are no questions about his arm strength or athleticism.

“great frame, big hands and is a plus athlete and really can make every single throw that a QB needs to make. He was able to place the ball in small windows, throw with a lot of velocity and also put great touch on the deep …[threw] marvelous passes consistently despite frigid temperatures and untimely winds. …delivers smooth passes with zip and touch, depending on the throw. He's got plenty of arm strength to make accurate throws and his ball placement is uncanny -- on both short throws and downfield.

The two questions are, 1) Is he ready to start at the college level and 2) If he is, are his skills and athleticism superior enough to Cade’s that he can overcome Cade’s three years in the system.

Our third qb option is Alan Bowman.   By far the most experienced of our quarterbacks, Bowman has 19 starts and has thrown for over 5000 yards.   He has a career 67% completion rate.  He is also a bit more mistake prone with 33 TDs to 17 interceptions.  He is also not a threat to run with -9 yards in 46 attempts.   He is going to have significant catching up to do, but so e are very high on him.

“he can be a truly elite quarterback in the right scenario. Now, I’m not sure Michigan runs an offense that compliments Alan’s talents but the kid at his best is as good as any signal caller. If he gets back to form, I’m not kidding when I say he’s good enough to help Michigan challenge Ohio State.”

While some think he may be the answer because of his experience, he hasn’t played well against good teams.

“In all Power 5 games, he’s been just a 62.6% passer.  Meanwhile, against other teams, he’s completed 75.3% of his passes.  Taking it even further, Bowman has a TD: INT ratio in Power 5 games of just 4:3.  That is 16 TDs and 12 picks.”

I came into this putting this piece together thinking we had three guys with a legitimate chance to be a very good starter this year.   While I believed it unlikely that all three would hit,I thought chances were good that at least one would be a hit.

When I finished, I decided we only had two, but they each had a better chance of being very good this year than I thought.   Try as I might, I could not find anything to excite me about Bowman.

McNamara and McCarthy are a different.   McNamara seems like a much less flawed Shea Paterson. He may have similar physical tools, but he appears to have a much better feel for the game, makes better decisions and gets the ball out quicker.   We will have to see McCarthy against a college offense, but he shows both arm strength and touch.  I think McNamara can keep us in the game against anyone not named Ohio State and if McCarthy is good enough to beat him out, who knows what happens,