What are your real expectations if we got Harbaugh

Submitted by poseidon7902 on

Reading some of the posts/threads on here I've come to the conclusion that some on here may be putting too much emphasis on the ability of Harbaugh.  I don't question he's the top choice at the moment, but some have almost deified him.  The last thing I want to see is a broken fan base in 3 years because Harbaugh didn't get the ship righted in the righ amount of time.  That being said, lelt's play the hypothetical game.  We sign Harbaugh Jan 4 to a 5 year deal worth base salary of 5 million a year.  What's your expectation?  

 

Me personally, I feel like we may be in another position similar to Hoke's first year.  Not quite the same, but similar.  a well returned team with some adversity under their belt.  I would expect an initial boom of production, a 9 win season.  Then a fall off for the next 3 years averaging 7-8 wins a season.  It wouldn't be till his 5th season that things really start coming together.  

 

I could be wrong and he shows up on campus, 10 5 star recruits decommit elsewhere and commit to UM and we win the NC in year 2.  I just want to keep my expectations realistic no matter what coach we get.  

McFate

November 25th, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^

College football is a coaches' game, meaning that quality of the coaching staff plays an outsized role in W/L record compared to other sports.

This would not be a complete overhaul of the system (like the transition to/from RichRod):  the scheme that Hoke recruits for fits well with Harbaugh's style.  There is a ton of young talent on this team.  The defense is already quite good and returns nearly everyone.  And the B1G is weak and should continue to be so for a while.

The current coaching staff would have a good shot at 8 wins during the regular season next year.  I can't believe that an elite staff wouldn't beat that by at least a couple wins.  Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same 12-0 that Urban managed in his first year.

GoBlue

November 25th, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^

Numerous Bo references.

Regularly compete for the conference title.

Occasionally (every 1-4 years) winning the BIG and make into the (by then likely expanded) 8-team playoff which will likely include most, if not all, of the Big 5 conference champs + 3 others. 

In other words, consistently relevant.

Tater

November 25th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

I would expect us to escape from this alternate universe in which Sparty is a better team than Michigan and Ohio State is threatening to turn the rivialry into a joke by winning every year.  

I would expect Michigan to compete for a shot at the playoffs at least twice every five years, especially if they are expanded to include every Power Five conference champion, as they should be within three years.  

I would expect those fanbases which hate Michigan for no other reason than "just because" to watch their teams suffer some stinging losses that "justify" that hate.  

And yes, I would expect Jim Harbaugh to seriously ruffle a few feathers along the way.  That's OK: so did Bo.

MGoBlueChip

November 25th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^

Beat sparty and Ohio state first and foremost. Would like to start off with a win vs Utah on the road too. Discipline football, improvement week to week, a football team that is BETTER at the end of the season than they were to begin the season. Is this all really too much to ask???? Really?????

poseidon7902

November 25th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^

This, and this is the problem I have when people say "Well Urban showed up and look what OSU did".  Yes, he showed up and went on a tear, but it's not exactly the same situation.  OSu wasn't sitting in the depths of despair for 7 years prior to his arrival.  There was one strange season when they went from one great coach to an interim coach to a great coach.  Not the same at all.  Player development had been handled properly for the 12 years prior or however long Tressel was there.  They had a QB who could start out the gate at a ready level.  

EverybodyMurders

November 25th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^

It's not necessarily about personnel and who we have, but the fact that we have had what looks to be horrendous coaching on the sideline for the past 3-4 years. Great coaches not only develop their talent but consistently put their players in situations that they will thrive in, and make the team better. It's not about coming in and winning 24 straight games (I don't expect that) but putting this talented group of players in positions to succeed, give them confidence and build a solid team. I couldn't give a damn who we have on the roster, but what I do know is that hoke wasted these players times with lack of development. I would expect the opposite with Harbaugh.

And I would think this season would show what good coaching brings as well - watching them develop jt Barrett to fill in for a heisman trophy candidate has been impressive, and I think a solid coaching staff brings along all their players as needed. We don't have that now and haven't in a while




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Blue Mike

November 25th, 2014 at 1:10 PM ^

I think expectations would be closer to Urban at Florida than Urban at OSU.  8-4 the first year while correcting the issues present, and then real success in year 2 and beyond.  Really, anything below 8-4 in this conference year in and year out is terrible, especially when Nebraska and Wisconsin are off the schedule.

I think it was Stewart Mandel who wrote an article a couple of years ago looking at the phenomenon of coaches winning titles in their 2nd through 4th years.  Basically, teams who fire coaches for failing to meet expectations but who recruited well (sound familiar?) are primed for the right coach to come in and have immediate success.  Zook, for all of his failings, was a great recruiter.  

If we don't screw up the coaching search, we should be able to have immediate success.

Baughlieve

November 25th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^

I still believe Morris with some Harbaugh coaching could reach his potential. There is also plenty of talent at RB with Green, Isaac, Smith, Johnson and Hayes. Not to mention our offensive line will have plenty of experience and is improving. Bring in Harbaugh and I definitely see us competing for a Big Ten title next year.

MI Expat NY

November 25th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

I think pointing out the Fickell to Meyer transition doesn't mean people expect a national championship next year.  Just that it's reasonable to think a team returning a huge proportion of its talent could be 10-2ish next year and competitive in every game.  

You look back at who we played this year and it's semi-incomprehensible that we aren't at least 7-5 and competitive in our loses.  If you take that as what should have been for a team returning that much experience (albeit one with a big question at QB), making the jump to conference contender shouldn't be seen as shocking.  

Now, I don't know this is going to make anyone feel better, but in some ways it's a lot like Hoke's first year.  Going into that season, no matter the head coach, most would have said with returning talent you're looking at 9-3, get some real improvement from coaching on the defensive side it could be a special year.  We got probably more defensive improvement than expected but combined it with a step back from what would have been expected on offense and had a pretty great year.  That transition should be easily replicated.  

snowcrash

November 25th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^

I expect to see a team that is more physical, fundamentally sound, and tenacious on both sides of the ball. I'd expect this with any qualified replacement, but especially with Harbaugh.

As for the overall record, it depends on the QB play. We'll likely go into next season with no one who has shown anything positive at all. At QB I just expect improvement over the course of the season. The worst case at QB is probably about the level of John Navarre's freshman year and another 5-7 record. The best case is maybe Chad Henne's freshman year and a 10-2 record.

HarBooYa

November 25th, 2014 at 10:20 AM ^

This is an apt comparison.



I think he wins 10 games right off the bat and recovers some recruits if he got hired. That said sf makes the playoffs....our situation is going to get worse and worse presuming Hoke gets canned after osu game.



If hoke beats osu, they will let him coach bowl game but hopefully not stay on.

McSomething

November 25th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^

For year 1 I would go in with no win/loss expectations. Just that the team shows improvement over the course of the season, and from the prior season. Year 2 I would hope for being in contention for the division in the final 2 weeks. Year 3 I'd hope we make it to Indianapolis.

Skapanza

November 25th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^

The team improving significantly from the start of the season to the end as well as year-to-year taking into account injury for the first point and graduation/draft for the second.

Everyone Murders

November 25th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^

I disagree with the OP.  As bad as Hoke's record on the field has been, he is recruiting well and the cupboard is full.  Plus Harbaugh (I assume you're referencing Jim, btw) is insanely competitive.  So I don't see the year 2-4 fall off that the OP predicts.

I'm not of the "Harbaugh or bust" camp because I think he comes with some baggage - mostly tied to his inability to play nicely with others.  I'd like to see him hired because his positives greatly outweigh his negatives.  But there are other coaches who could come into this program and have immediate success and sustained success.

123blue

November 25th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^

I agree completely. We've got a stacked roster and the new coach (even if not Jim) won't have to scramble just to field a squad. I can't see any reason for a drop off after a couple years. It happened with Hoke because the roster was so massively depleted. That won't happen again.

Space Bat

November 25th, 2014 at 10:16 AM ^

I think 8 possibly 9 wins would be the most popular pick if our qb situation doesn't turn out to be a complete tire fire. After year one our record could stagnate for a year or two, but I would be more concerned with seeing consistent week to week improvement with younger players, as well as just seeing a team that is more disciplined and makes fewer mental errors. Basically I would be fine with a few years of transition if that means watching a well coached team one day grow into a soul crushing, michigan state and ohio state destroying machine.