We are at a critical juncture in the RichRod era
With all the media (and booster) scrutiny Michigan is receiving in the wake of the MSU game, winning this game may prove to be the turning point of RichRod's tenure. Before the State game, I would have traded a loss v. Iowa if that meant a guaranteed win over MSU.
Now, although certain people are going to clutch to the MSU loss, the game against Iowa could be the biggest game of RichRod's tenure. The team just inadvertently set in motion a chain of events that will make or break RichRod's legacy. Everyone expects him to fail. Last year some excused his 1st year and blamed it on a bare cupboard. When we started rolling in the beginning of year 2, people got excited and thought we were back. Now, no one thinks we're back - everyone expects us to fail, including many of our own "fans" and boosters.
If Michigan beats Iowa, there is a good chance we go 4-2 the rest of the way. More specifically, with a win this week over Iowa the haters will be proven wrong, the negativity will start to die down, fans will get excited for a bowl game, we will travel well for the bowl game. If we win the bowl game, we will be a consensus top 20 team going into the offseason/preseason. Michigan will be back, and the only thing people will have against RichRod is the past.
If Michigan loses the game this weekend, there is still hope to silence the haters, but it won't come until the end of the season. Not to say that RichRod will be gone if he loses to Iowa/Wisconsin/OSU, but we will be arguing all these same issues on this date in 2011 if that's the case.
If the team can take care of business this weekend, it provides hope and ammunition against the persistent pessimists.
Go Blue!
Edit: It seems I did not make my position clear in this post. I am a huge RichRod supporter and even if he goes 6-6 this year, I still want him here because I think he deserves to finish what he started and I have confidence he will. A loss to Iowa is not an end of the world situation for this team, and I never said it was (in fact I said "if we lose to Iowa, there is still hope"). A loss to Iowa is simply a loss to Iowa. However, if we win this game, I think we will look back on it in a few years as the game where we turned the corner. Certainly we can't just go out and beat Iowa and call this season a success - we've gotta finish strong. I'm just trying to play Nostradamus a bit.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:31 AM ^
Wisconsin 1-1
Iowa 0-1
Northwestern 0-1
Penn St. 0-2
Illinois 0-2
Purdue 0-2
Ohio State 0-2
Michigan State 0-3
October 14th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
The past is the past. I'm talking about the future. Our team was not good the last 2 years. I don't care what our record has been against OSU/MSU or anyone else the past 2 years. I only care about the future and going forward, I think this team is ready to win, we're ready to compete in the big ten. I think we will show it on Saturday.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^
Half our team is ready to compete in the Big10. The other half is along for the ride.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^
I like what you are saying - I too am excited for the future. And I'm sure we can agree that winning at home against a ranked Iowa team will go a very long way in changing perceptions of this team--- and this program.
However, I don't think that any fan of the program with the most all-time wins and highest winning percentage, and multiple national championships can really, honestly, say that the past does not matter.
And that's what makes 0-6 against the Buckeyes matter. And 0-3 against Sparty matters.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:08 PM ^
especially Iowa, take a step back. I'd add Ohio State, but they just seem to reload.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
We have 3 very winnable games still on our schedule. Most were predicting 7-5 this season and winning those 3 puts us at 8-4. What's wrong with beating the teams you are better than, and losing to teams that are better than you? I just don't see how a team that everyone expected to be 7-5 losing to a probable end-of-year-top-10 team is going to kill his career here.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:02 PM ^
A final regular season record of 8-4 with a bowl game invitation would be just what the doctor ordered for this program. I'll also take a 7-5 record with one of the wins coming against OSU. And if 8-4 includes a win against OSU then BONUS! As mentioned above, every win matters regardless of the opponent. Wins over MSU and OSU are always great (see 1993, my freshman year, when Michigan finished 8-4 with one of those wins a blowout over OSU). That said, I believe Rodriguez will secretly be extremely happy with an 8-4 final regular season record - he'll never say it out loud, but I think it will be a big weight off his shoulders.
October 14th, 2010 at 1:27 PM ^
took off. Everyone who picked 7-5 or 8-4 and said they'd be satisfied with that (including me) said so before we knew Denard was this good. Given how critical QB is to offensive play, I think many people mentally upgraded their expectations--meaning our ability to play good teams better, and to play much better than mediocre teams. If Tate was our QB I'd be fine with 7-5 given our defense--with Denard at this level, 7-5 is disappointing IMO.
October 18th, 2010 at 1:09 PM ^
Even with an unexpectedly electrifying QB, 8-4 or 7-5 seems like a reasonable prognostication with a defense this bad.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
Al sez "Just win baby!"
October 16th, 2010 at 12:47 AM ^
Al Davis is a moron, i do not know if i would be quoting him.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:36 AM ^
I wouldn't put so much pressure on this game if I were you, it could make Saturday much more devastating. Just take the rest of the season one game/play at a time and applaud the small improvements that are (hopefully) coming.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:36 AM ^
This game couldn't matter less to RichRod's future. If he wins, a nice feather in the cap, but if not, there is not much shame in losing to a highly ranked team, especially when that team is not one of the core rivals. Also what's with the hyperbole that he is gone if he loses against Iowa, Wisc and OSU. If you want to take a strong outrageous position, back it up with some analysis or reasoning.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:30 PM ^
This game is huge. Lose and everyone will beleive that we are headed to our 3rd straight Big 10 slide (including possibly recruits). Win and it buys RR a lot of goodwill and patience.
October 14th, 2010 at 1:12 PM ^
This game is huge only to us die-hard Michigan fans who are sick and f***ing tired of hearing little brother and everyone else tell us how bad we are and how far we've fallen. We want it because it would indeed go a very long way to silencing the haters, but to RR and to the team, this game is no bigger than any other game on the schedule. There are just too many ups and downs for them to pin that much emphasis on one game, especially against a non-rival.
October 14th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^
yes, if we beat iowa the critics quite and yes , if we lose they say this is the beginning of the slide, ut it does not matter- it will be what it will be- by that i mean where we end up is what will matter to an even keeled man like brandon. if this is the beginning of the slide then all the haters and even some die hards will be all over rr and brandon will have a tough decision . but , what if we win and then slide? is 6-6 that much better, what if we lose and end up 8-4- would this game have mattered?
let's just let the season play out. i know it's hard and our hearts nearly stop beating every weekend, but it will be what it will be.
October 14th, 2010 at 2:12 PM ^
The post was intended to be prognostication more than anything else. I THINK an Iowa win means we are actually pretty good and will go at least 4-2 the rest of the way. Could I be wrong? Yes. Could I be right? Yes. Could someone have said the same thing about Wisconsin in 2008? Yes. Its just an opinion of what I think the future holds and nothing more.
October 14th, 2010 at 3:40 PM ^
in recruiting. Sure the overall record is what matters most to Brandon, RR and the team.
BUT in the minds of many, particularly recruits it matters a lot when you win and who you beat. For example, if we beat Iowa with Tim Jernigan present it might mean more in his recruitment than a win against Illinois a month later.
Not to mention the fact that it does seem like RR's teams ride momentum both up an down so a win this saturday might increase confidence and thus pay dividends down the road, while a loss could do the oppposite.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:36 AM ^
I don't think there's a big enough ORLY owl for this, but yeah, we'll learn a lot about the team this Saturday. If we lose to Iowa it's not the end of the world though. We'll need to beat Purdue and Penn State.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:39 AM ^
If we lose this game, I'll be more dissapointed about the dumbasses coming out of the woodwork with ZOMG RICH ROD IZ SOOO FIRED than about actually losing this game.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:42 AM ^
This is exactly what I was trying to convey in my post. I've been a RichRod supporter since before we hired him. His teams were ALWAYS fun to watch. I started following his career when Woody Dantzler was at Clemson. Even if he is 6-6, I want him here next year because I have seen improvement every year since 2008. What I want more than that though is to silence the haters. Its embarrasing how many high profile boosters are rooting for his demise. These factions within Michigan are ridiculous.
If we lose, we lose, its just another game. But if we win, it helps more than a normal win.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:50 AM ^
...and I don't mean this to start an argument, but when will it be legitimate for fans/boosters to begin questioning the direction of the program and the future of the coach? After we lose a winnable game this year (say we lose to Illinois, or Purdue, or Penn State)? After we fall to 0-3 against OSU in Rich Rod's tenure? After the bowl game, should we get to one? Or do we have to wait until year 4 is complete?
October 14th, 2010 at 11:54 AM ^
IMO, the moment we don't improve from the previous year. Now, once we get back to the top, we will have varying records from 9-4 to 13-0. But until that time, RichRod needs to be kept around until we stop seeing improvement.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:59 PM ^
I think you have a fair and justified question, but it is one that is going to bring forth all kind of different opinions. I agree with the position that you need to give RichRod credit as long as the TEAM continues to show improvement. The University of Michigan made a decision to change the way their football team looks and plays by hiring Rich Rodriguez and when you completely change the look and play of a team it is going to take a little time to get your final product.
After saying all of this, if Rich Rodriguez loses his job it is going to be because of the decisions he has made on the defensive side of the ball and have nothing whatsoever to do with the offense IMO.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:41 AM ^
And Illinois. I know they are looking better, but not good enough to count them even close to a tossup yet.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^
Good point. Forgot about them.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:03 PM ^
nothing screams "ALL IN!" like a hundred foot tall tattoo of the Michigan block M on your abdomen. I like it.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:10 PM ^
Little known fact: I not only had to have it tattooed, but had to have the hair dyed as well.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:55 AM ^
Illinois may lay MSU somewhat close this Saturday, but their loss to IU in a couple weeks will put them right back where they belong... on a course for a 3-5 or 2-6 conference record.
At the end of the year people will look back at the PSU/Illini game as the battle for 8th place.
October 14th, 2010 at 2:27 PM ^
If we play only at the average level of our first 6 games against Purdue and PSU, we should win without too much trouble. A loss would indicate that something is going seriously wrong.
A close loss to Illinois would be disappointing but not devastating.
As for Iowa, Wisconsin, and OSU, a win in any of those would be the biggest of RR's tenure here, but none of those should even be as high as a 6 on the "desperate need to win" scale. Blowout losses would be bad though.
Even if we beat only Purdue and PSU, that would leave us at 7-5 and in a bowl in a year when the combination of talent and experience on defense is at an all-time low.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^
Last weekend's loss was a huge blow to Rich Rod. You can tell me all the reasons why it wasn't that important for you or why it happened and shouldn't be perceived as a huge blow, but for those that were at the game and around campus after, the mood was not pretty. 0-3 against MSU stings really, really bad. I think Brandon is saying all the right things, but another season with a fast start and a late-season collapse will "prove" to many that have always hated Rich Rod that a change is needed at the end of the year. And Brandon will hear a lot of those voices. This is, of course, JMHO...
October 14th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^
Of course it was a big blow, we lost to a rival. If RR was doing this with his guys, all seniors, it'd be a different story. Look long term right now. We have virtually everyone back on offense next year, with some great depth at O-Line and WR. On defense, we have virtually everyone back sans Ezeh, Mouton, Banks, Rogers. If we implode with everyone in place, I understand -- but until then, it's too early to pull the rug out.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:49 PM ^
I don't buy that argument. This is college football, every team looses players and you will always have some freshman on a team. At some point we need to win against big ten competition or we need to make some changes.
October 14th, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^
Of course my argument was extremely broad. There has been more going on with this program under RR than simply (as you would say) LOOSING players -- NCAA bullshit allegations, transfers, injuries, position changes, decommits, etc. Not saying all of that isn't a result of simply RR, but some of it isn't. We have had some tough, tough breaks the last few years and I think we are on the upside. Wins will come.
October 16th, 2010 at 12:05 AM ^
Well, start buying the argument. Yes, every team loses players and plays SOME freshmen. There is not one single successful team with half of the starters being underclassmen, much less with the number of freshmen we have. RR's first recruiting class will not be seniors for TWO more years, since he came in about 2 months before signing day with most of the recruiting class of 2008 already in place. Iowa fans waited 10 or 11 years for Ferentz to put something together - RR will have a Big Ten Champion / BCS contender in place in less than half that time.
October 14th, 2010 at 7:08 PM ^
...in college football, since about 1990 you get 3 seasons to show something then you are gone. So for RR to get that 4th season he need to show "U of M Isn't a finesse team that you can just out physical" (I don't even blame DS for saying it on 1130 this afternoon, he was only repeating what everyone else was saying.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:38 PM ^
I was at the game and on campus after and although we were disappointed about the loss I don't remember anyone calling for anybody to be fired besides Shirvell...
October 14th, 2010 at 11:39 AM ^
For instance, you wrote, “More specifically, with a win this week over Iowa the haters will be proven wrong.” All you can really say is that a win over Iowa will call off the dogs for now.
No Michigan coach, and surely not Rodriguez, will truly be embraced by the fans until he reaches at least parity with Ohio State and clear dominance over Michigan State.
I am not a Rodriguez hater by any means, but the fact is, at Michigan you are expected to win Big Ten titles with regularity. Until Rodriguez does that, the arguments that he is the wrong coach will persist.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^
October 14th, 2010 at 12:07 PM ^
This is the mantra I have been stating over and over again. Does it suck that we lost to MSU for the 3rd straight year...heck yeah. I am still getting childish text messages from Lil' Bro slappies gloating.....
But RR needs to be evaluated upon the measure of improvement of this program from year to year. By defination, just 1 more win constitutes improvement, a bowl game, minimum 3 weeks extra practice time. It does not matter in the grand scheme of the program who you beat right now. If the program continues to get better (and I do firmly believe that, but I am having some questions about the D) we need to stay the course.
Does anyone actaully consider that we may have lost to the 2nd best team in the Big 10? They beat Wisconsin, they will destroy Penn State, and Iowa will be a toss up. My point is, that I still believe that we will win at least 2 if not more (I'm going with 4) games this year, plus the bowl game. That puts us at 8-5 minimum (I'm going with 10-3). That's improvement.
And yes, one of those losses will most likely be to that school to the south so that will make it 0-7. The haters will still hate, citing 0-3 to Sparty and 0-7 to 'them', but that would be a short sighted way of looking at the program.
8-5...9-4...10-3.... Heck yeah this porgram is heading in the right direction.
Will it have "arrived"? No.....
Will everyone be satisfied?...No
Will even RR and the team be satisfied?...Heck no.
Focus on improvement each and every week / game / practice / play / workout and everything else will fall into place.....
October 14th, 2010 at 11:41 AM ^
This team needs to show progress, which essentially means 6 wins and a bowl. Losing to Iowa doesn't doom those chances.
Stop moving the goalposts. If M loses to the top three or four teams in the conference (OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisky), then it will still be a successful season.
October 14th, 2010 at 11:56 AM ^
I wanted a recipe. Don't let the Anti-WLA Mafia Mafia cow you, dude.
MOAR RECIPEZ!!!
October 14th, 2010 at 12:24 PM ^
If you post in good faith and you're not egregiously stupid, then there will be no recipe.
It seems like the poster is trying to build up the importance of Iowa because he thinks it'll be a win.
October 14th, 2010 at 12:43 PM ^
Troof, but I have to cook dinner for my in-laws tonight. Seriously, I need a recipe.
October 14th, 2010 at 1:24 PM ^
I guess I don't post here enough to know what the recipe reference is in regards to. But, I do think we will win on Saturday (I will not be devastated with a loss, I know its going to be an uphill battle) and I think that it will be looked at as a very big win 2 years from now.
October 14th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^
For example, if ekartash had posted any of his comments here in an actual thread, he would have been recipe'd. Bad faith, overly negative, overly stupid, and/or overly pointless threads will get recipe'd. Some people at MGo don't like it because, well, sometimes they or their buddies get recipe'd.
You were close, but it seemed like you're coming from a position of optimism, so I let it go. Stay tuned, though- there is always an idiot with the ability to create a thread.
October 14th, 2010 at 3:27 PM ^
He has till, like, 2015 to win a Big Ten title. As long as he can show improvement of one game every year.
He starts 5-0, and goes 6-6, he's fired. That's not even hating, that's just the way it's going to be. And don't kid yourself otherwise.
October 14th, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^
I never said "he only has to improve by one win every year to keep his job." What I said was he has to show tangible progress this year, which at minimum means 6 wins.
And this...
He starts 5-0, and goes 6-6, he's fired. That's not even hating, that's just the way it's going to be. And don't kid yourself otherwise.
...is just delusional. We just heard a report that David Brandon is telling recruits RichRod does NOT have a minimum # wins in order to keep his job, and he WILL be here for a long time. When it comes to assertions about RichRod's job security, I'll believe Brandon before I ever believe you.
October 14th, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^
Because nowhere has Brandon ever said that 6-6 would be tangible progress. He hasn't put a win total on it, but you're delusional if you don't think wins and losses are a part of it. He hasn't put a number, because wins can mean different things. He might let 6-6 slide, if we're suddenly hit with injuries everywhere. Or 10-2 might not be enough if some huge scandal occurred. That's what he's saying when he's saying it's not only wins or losses. Not that "it doesn't matter how much we win, I'll judge him on other things". Brandon is telling people Rich is going to be here for a long time, because he can't imagine that after going 5-1 we would end up at 6-6. He (wisely) doesn't think 1-5 the rest of the way (and 1-6to finish the season) is, or should, happen. If it does, without some major happening, he's probably going to take a much different look on the season.
If you think that if we win one game the rest of the season, against Illinois, Purdue, Penn State with other winnable games thrown in, and that one game isn't Ohio State, the only one delusional is you.
October 14th, 2010 at 6:37 PM ^
I have never seen someone so contort an AD's (semi)public statement of support for a head coach to mean...nothing. We can only go on what Dave Brandon says, but you want to extrapolate it to represent what he can or cannot imagine. It's almost as if you don't want that public statement of support to mean anything.
I wonder why.