Way OT: Military coup in Turkey

Submitted by Jon06 on

There appears to be a military coup in progress in Turkey. This is super OT, but I know there are days when I get all of my news via the MGoBoard, so I thought I'd post it. The coup attempt is frontpage news everywhere, so I'll let you choose your own sources instead of linking anything.

It'll be very interesting to see what happens. As some of you may know, President Erdogan had been fairly effectively trying to expand his power beyond the scope allowed by the Turkish constitution, while more or less waging war on Turkey's Kurdish population. For another bit of background information, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian warplane 8 months ago, causing an international incident that could have easily had major implications for the US. (Turkey is a member of NATO, so we have treaty obligations that would be hard to ignore if Erdogan were to start a war with Russia.)

Turkey is also a key ally in the fight against ISIS, so this is worth watching for that reason alone. A step back from the direction Erdogan had been tending, including the restoration of peace with Turkish Kurds and cooperation with Syrian Kurds who have often been the most effective opponents of ISIS, would appear to be a great boon to American strategic interests. But who knows what the consequences of a military coup might be.

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The Mad Hatter

July 15th, 2016 at 8:35 PM ^

Most of the senior officer corps loyal to the state over its current leader have already been purged from the military. Much like Stalin did in the 30's. This this is being carried out by lower level officers and enlisted men, and without the support of the people, many of whom are fond of the Islamist government, it is doomed to failure.

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Jon06

July 15th, 2016 at 8:46 PM ^

I think you are right that it will fail. It increasingly seems like theater, as the military seems to have repeatedly backed down in the face of rather docile civilian protestors. Stratfor says Erdogan's plane has now landed back in Istanbul, and many people in my newsfeed are suggesting that he will use this coup attempt to consolidate his control over the country.

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Eye of the Tiger

July 16th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^

Fetullah Gulen? Hard to say--he denied it and made a statement against the coup. But that could be for show with the US government.

Also, for those who are interested, the Nurci (his followers) are a Sufi-derived group--they are Mystics, and not at all what you normally think of as "political Islam." They are quite liberal in many ways. But they are also very weird and cultish.



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jmblue

July 15th, 2016 at 9:00 PM ^

Yeah. He's been in power long enough to build up a cult of personality. There's also been a lot of migration from the countryside (Erdogan's power base) to Istanbul and Ankara, making those cities overall less opposed to his politics than they used to be. A generation ago the people of Istanbul probably would have heeded the military's call more readily.

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UMProud

July 15th, 2016 at 9:47 PM ^

Turkey is drifting farther away from being a secular country.  It'll be interesting to see the impact this has in the next 10 or 20 years in regards to their NATO membership & the numerous western corporations who have a presence here.

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Blue4U

July 15th, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^

reminds me of the closing scene in Charlie Wilson's war.  Everyone celebrating the overthrow and ousting of Soviet forces in Afghanistan. 

Gust to Charlie:  "That's not good enough.  Because I am about to hand you a code-word classified NIE right now and it's gonna tell you that the crazies have started rolling into Kandahar like it's a fucking bathtub drain"

Charlie - "Jesus Gust, you can depress a bride on her weddin day!"

Gust - "Hey, listen to what I'm telling you"

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Gooseggs

July 16th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^

That greatly depends on who you ask. As with anything, opinions are divided along political lines. The rich are definitely happier, the poor and underrepresented definitely not. Security is better bc the police did not support morsy and thus would not do their jobs. In the other hand, sisi has completely suppressed the military, opposition, demonstrations, the ability to show an opposing opinion and the right to a fair and expedient trial. He has done everything erdogan did but on 10x a worst scale.

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Gooseggs

July 20th, 2016 at 9:41 PM ^

But in the end morsy was an elected president who was pretty bad at his job and a poor uniter. There have been us presidents who have arguably done just as bad a job, but the military did not overthrow them. In the end it's having respect and faith in the democratic process and they didn't have that. Now they're back to an authoritarian leader.

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gwkrlghl

July 15th, 2016 at 10:10 PM ^

If this was a military coup to try to keep Erdogan from consolidating power and turning Turkey into an Islamic State, what are the odds this completely backfires and gives Erdogan some 'war time' popularity which he uses to actually seize power and make Turkey an Islamic State? I say 50/50

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LSAClassOf2000

July 16th, 2016 at 12:34 AM ^

I am extremely late to this party as I was at a wedding (I was an usher, which is apparently all of 10 minutes of work, so good on me) but I did get a few tweets about this thread, but I am very impressed - this managed to keep itself mostly civil. I only took out a few somewhat divisive replies when I got home a little bit ago. 

Just thought I might share that. Carry on. 

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Sopwith

July 16th, 2016 at 2:49 AM ^

But you killed my AOL joke, and the opportunities for those don't turn up much these days. Kind of like how those free trial CDs they used to spam by the millions don't come up much these days, because 2400 baud dial-up. More like America On Hold, amirite? Heyyyooooo... 

Seriously, this thread has already lasted longer than the coup did. 

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