Visitors this weekend
The visitors list is the lightest it's been in a few weeks, but there are still some big-time recruits who have visited this week or are going to be in town over the weekend. Most noteworthy is probably the #1 offensive tackle in the 2024 class, Brandon Baker from Santa Ana (CA) Mater Dei. It might be hard to pull him and this offensive line class might fill up rather quickly, but it's crazy to think that insiders have been predicting an awesome offensive line class (Hamilton, Roebuck, Andrew Sprague, Blake Frazier, Max Anderson etc.) even without considering Baker.
Fellow 2024 Californian Jordan Lockhart, from Bellflower (CA) St. John Bosco, is the 4-star former Ole Miss linebacker commit who is now back on the market. And one of the top linebackers in the 2025 class, Noah Mikhail, was in town mid-week.
Here's the full list for this week (LINK).
Sprague is announcing his commitment sometime today on his Instagram account. In anticipation of such an event, I also put together a scouting report on him. It's an exciting time to be following Michigan football recruiting.
If Michigan can keep the assistants they currently have, and Harbaugh sticks around for 10 plus more years, this has potential dynasty written all over it. We may have one hiccup year barely above .500 (next year) and then off to the races again.
Wasn't the general consensus this past year was going to be a hiccup year too? Dynasties seem to avoid barely above .500 seasons. They were well above .500 this year which indicates maybe we are in the beginning of a dynasty and hiccups going forward might be more like 3 losses in a season.
No, we had everyone at important positions coming back. Next year we lose some huge pieces at very important positions.
I don't think next year is a huge drop off. Assuming JJ is at QB, that alone should set a solid floor (unless the OL completely falls apart, but the depth seems solid). It's whenever JJ leaves that will be the potential toss up season, IMO.
I am assuming JJ is going to be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft and is gone. If he is indeed back for some reason, then forget that hiccup year. Full throttle ahead!
JJ is not projected as a top 5 pick. He is not even projected as a top 5 QB.
If we win an NC that will change but but maybe not enough to get him 1st day money.
At the end of next year he will have to assess his draft stock and if another year will help.
3rd round money is $800k. He can make more from NIL, like Corum. He'll have to see where he is and if he'll have to take a pay-cut to go to the NFL.
It's a new world.
3rd round money is $800k.
Plus a 7-figure signing bonus. Not disputing your point at all, but if we are comparing NFL salary to NIL potential, rookie signing bonus is a pretty important piece of the puzzle. Likewise, if JJ improves upon last season even modestly, he could play himself up a round at least, which both increases his base salary and signing bonus. For instance, if he is projected to go in the middle of the second round, that signing bonus would likely more than triple from what he would receive as a third rounder on top of the base salary increase. $5mil or more, plus a year head start on NFL contract #2 is pretty hard to top.
I feel like JJ is still quite a bit of progression away from being a 1st round draft pick, much less top 5. He has the abilities to get there but it would take some big strides and big performances on the field this season. If he ends up considered a 1st rounder for next years draft I think that means this season has gone very, very well.
I am assuming JJ is going to be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft
You are high. Take off the rose color glasses.
I've been saying it for awhile. We are two years into a decade where we beat OSU 4 times of 5.
This has the potential to be a Big Ten dynasty. Before anyone here can blanket the term "dynasty", Michigan needs to log some wins in the CFP, and ideally a few national championships.
I love the optimism, but I don't know if dynasty is the right word. We're still not anywhere near an Alabama/Georgia level of recruiting. I think we're setting up for sustained success, relative to our conference. If we can pull even or ahead of OSU for a decade, that alone is a job well done. Getting to Bama/Dynasty level is a different tier.
Can you imagine these comments coming off the TCU game.
The bad news - Michigan's assistants are too good to hold onto all of them. There will be regular turnover as they move on up.
The good news - hiring new assistants is something Harbaugh has proven to do extremely well. Michigan is a very attractive place to work right now between the culture, the salary pool and the bonuses.
While the offense is going to see some major attrition next year the defense is still going to be an embarrassment of riches. The DL will have Grant, Graham, Benny, Stewart, and Moore at the very least. Linebackers will be Colson, Hausmann, NHG, and Rolder, and Will Johnson will be back with a supporting cast that likely includes Walker, Hill, McBurrows, Paige, Moore, Sabb, Dent, etc.
If JJ leaves and they're shy about handing the keys to Warren or Davis, I don't think it will be too hard to lure a B+ or A- level QB from a middling Power 5 team to come play (see Sam Hartman) to throw to guys like Loveland, Clemons, Morris, hell even O'Leary or the new freshmen that seem to be impressing.
And while Michigan will almost certainly take a step back on the OL and at running back, to me there's plenty of talent there to put together at least an above-average offense. Maybe not be national contender level good, but outside of OSU, is a team going to have much better pieces than Barnhart (4* w/ experience), Jones (4* w/ experience), Crippen and Anderson (4*s), El-Hadi (4* w/ experience)? Not to mention guys like Gentry, Persi, and Hinton (if he sticks around)...
To that end, outside of OSU and PSU, a running back room of Stokes, Cabana, Marshall, Hall, and Mullings would be a gold mine.
So, I guess, in short, I would disagree with your assessment of an almost 500 season being a possibility. Maybe not enough to be nationally relevant, but I can't see a huge dropoff. It *might* be a year where a loss to a non-OSU team like Penn State or a resurgent Wisky wouldn't be a huge surprise, but I'd still wager that roster will be heavy favorites against nearly all of the BIG.
The keys to the offense are not going to Davis Warren if JJ leaves, but from my source JJ is a four year guy because he loves Michigan. But if he decides to leave my money is on Alex Orji taking the job. He will be in his third year, looks like his passing has developed after watching him this spring. Another season of development and he takes the job.
Loveland yes. What have Clemons and Morris done again? Oh starzzzzz.
O'Leary has shown more than either of those starzzzz at this point. And none have done anything in real games.
UM can win 8-9 game half asleep with it's schedule and talent differential. The other 3+ games are about having an elite QB. Or not. Not above average.
Sprague is going to be a giant.
Reminds me of The Barge!
Johnny?
Thanks Magnus. Enjoy your scouting and the tell it like you see it approach. When reading the weaknesses portion, I was wondering who is an example of the standard? Which players should I watch tape on to see how tackle should be done?
In high school? There aren't many. I think Brandon Baker is the best I've seen in the class, which is why he's #1.
As for NFL guys, there are people like Joe Thomas and Trent Williams that I think have been really good. Anthony Munoz is/was also a fun watch if you like good line play.
On offensive line, we also are in a good spot with 4* OTs Bennet Warren and Michael Uili and IOL 4* Waltclaire Flynn Jr., and 3* IOL Caleb Brewer and Kyle Altuner...and probably more. How many guys can we take on the OL?
As many as we want? Doesn't seem like the number of 'ships even is a thing any more.
Numbers I've seen have been around 5 with a possibility of a 6th.
Michigan is expected to lose a lot of linemen after the season (Nugent, Zinter, Keegan, Jones, Barnhart, Henderson, and Hinton are all seniors or super-seniors) and there will certainly be some transfers before/after the year.
With that type of attrition, a lot of playing time will be up for grabs! Do you think that'll reduce the chances that we see transfers? I get that someone like Crippen might be tired of waiting, but 2024 will certainly be wide open...with a ton of opportunity.
Can Crippen play Guard? My money is on Anderson to win the center job after this fall.
Although Anderson could certainly play guard if it gets you the best five and leaves you with a great back up at center to move over.
Center is just such a critical position
I think Anderson has been playing more guard in practice than Crippen has. Crippen was likely to be the starter this year before Nugent transferred in.
I thought Hinton had some injury years in there and still has a couple years of eligibility?
He could stay. But 2023 is his fourth year of college.
Nugent is in his fifth year.
So they're seniors or fifth year seniors. That doesn't mean they have to leave.
I thought I read somewhere that Nugent has two more years of eligibility, not that he would stay two.
I remember reading the same thing shortly after Nugent transferred to Michigan. Just don't ask me where.
Where ? :)
While we're talking about linemen, you could add...
Eagan Boyer
DeAndre Carter
Marques Easley
William Satterwhite
Fletcher Westphal
All those guys have visited in the last month-ish and have had positive things to say about Michigan.
Thanks for even more info! I remembered Boyer, Carter, and Easley visiting but must have missed the other two. Moore has really picked up the recruiting after what felt like a couple down years for him.
All the guys.
I'll be looking to see what grade you give him. With the Lewan comparison maybe as high as a 90? Assuming he picks UM.
Awesome - lets hope we get a commitment today.
Also - Sam mentioned UM was a darkhorse for a top 20 Edge, I didnt hear the name yesterday though. Any insight on who that might be?
I imagine he is talking about Dylan Stewart or Elijah Rushing.
Elijah Rushing
Great name for an edge guy.
I enjoy landing recruits whose names reflect their position. Must get!
We should start a list of best names for former players, given their position. My nominations would be:
- Chase Winovich (self explanatory)
- Olu Oluwatimi (because he played for OL-U)
My personal favorite was Shea Golfsalot.
Is that Shea Putterson's nickname?
Magnus has started his season player countdown as well. Always enjoy those... in case anyone is jonesing for more football content.
I love this recruiting momentum and the direction of the program. I have no issue in admitting i was wrong about Harbaugh. But in order for this program to really become elite we need a national championship. Beating ohio state was a step to get to the big ten championship game and winning the big ten got us into the playoffs. In order to truly consider Harbaugh an all time great he needs a national championship. This season will be his best shot to achieve that goal. A victory against OSU at home is expected this season and winning the east pretty much guarantees a big ten championship. The rest of the schedule besides penn state is a cake walk. For me its national championship game appearance or bust. A win in the title game would be the ultimate icing on the cake.
The little lights are not twinkling.
Questions for those in the know, from personal experience or otherwise:
- Given that there isn't a game of any sort (baseball, maybe?), what happens on these "off-cycle" visit weekends? Just a lot of meetings and touring and eating and such? (let's keep it clean, people--this is a family blog).
- Relatedly, why would recruits choose these off-cycle weekends as their OV weekends? What do they tend to like about them? Is it simply a matter of fitting UM into their schedules, or is there some other reason to choose this kind of weekend?
Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.
Good questions and I'd like to hear what others think about this as well.
I'd also be interested to know what are the advantages and disadvantages of using an OV on weekends with a lot of recruits versus those when very few are coming. It seems like it would be great to meet your potential teammates, but at the same time there would be less time for personal one-on-one interactions with the coaches.