Turnover Stats for PSU Game
Maybe not a surprise, but the PSU game will come down to one thing IMO = turnovers. The turnover battle is so important for this game because:
1. Penn State is SECOND in the country in turnover margin. That may "over-inflate" their score margin in victories.
2. Michigan is 95TH and very close to the bottom. Of course, the QBs interceptions have made our games look much worse in final score.
3. Penn State needed a real miracle to beat Iowa. It was the only game in which they had a negative turnover margin all year.
4. Michigan lost one game -- by 4 points -- this year and it was a -5 turnover game.
While fumbles may be somewhat random, interceptions are not IMO. As long as we can keep it on the ground and force PSU to air it out, our chances of a positive turnover margin improves.
In Michigan's favor, the Wolverine running game is improving and its reliance on the passing game might be able to go down. And, the weather should be dry/good on Saturday. If O'Korn doesn't throw a pick, we win. That's a big IF.
October 16th, 2017 at 5:18 PM ^
you spelled Petr Klima's name wrong
October 16th, 2017 at 5:18 PM ^
Devin Bush will be Barkley's kryptonite. Bush said in an interview today that hes responsible for spying Barkley all game. What a fun matchup that will be!
Yes, we need turnovers and a touchdown from our D or Special Teams and we can win this game.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:12 PM ^
I'm not as concerned about Barkley on the ground, but how they will use him in the passing attack. They need to remember that McSorely can run also, like Lewerke. Khaleke may be needed to spy on the QB as well.
October 16th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
"If O'Korn doesn't throw a pick, we win. That's a big IF."
Wait, wait. This belongs in the BOLD PREDICTIONS thread.
October 16th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
Penn State is a disciplined team in terms of turnovers and penalties. We are quite the opposite. Does not look good as there is a strong correlation between turnover margin and winning games https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/23/4649718/college-football-turnover-margin-winning-percentage
October 16th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
Totally hypothetical thought experiment question, but...
If Baker Mayfield is currently the Michigan QB, are we good enough to compete for a national championship this year?
I ask this because I still think we have obvious weaknesses on the O-line, and despite being absurdly talented, the recievers are still very young and unpolished.
Would Mayfield's magic, along with an improved running game, and our dominant defense make UM a real contender, or would it still be O-line doom?
October 16th, 2017 at 5:49 PM ^
I think our defense would more than make up for any offensive problems...because there would be many more positive moments on offense compared to what we have now.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:54 PM ^
I think so. Part of what makes Mayfield so good is his ability to improvise, keep the play going when things break down, scramble around in the pocket, etc. If you watched the OU-OSU game, the Buckeyes got consistent pressure but Mayfield was able to escape, keep his eyes downfield and make a play.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^
October 17th, 2017 at 9:58 AM ^
so I know a number of Louisville fans. We were talking about a trade of one season of Lamar Jackson for one season of John Beilein. After last Saturday, I might actually take that deal.
October 17th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
Baker Mayfield? Man, this team would be good enough to compete for a national championship if Jake Rudock is currently the Michigan QB--they'd be undefeated, they'd have a monster D, and they'd have a smart QB whom I could never imagine ending three drives in a row with interceptions (yes, I know, not all of those were on JOK, but three drives in a row???).
You can win a championship without blowing out every other team on the schedule. This team deserves to be ranked in the teens. A reliable QB would put them solidly in the top ten if not top three or four.
October 17th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
and a couple of the other receivers were coming along. Passing game is a shitshow mostly because of QB play, but there are a lot of other issues there as well.
October 16th, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^
I predict a field goal fest and what amounts to a tossup game. I don’t think Penn State is quite as good as they are ranked.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:14 PM ^
I think PSU will get away with 11 men in the box. Book it.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^
Indana put 8 in the box and their rush defense is as good as PSU (opponent adjusted).
As our rushing O progresses a touch from last week, it should be the best PSU has faced.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^
I mean, why wouldn't they? That means that O'korn is going to have to throw it and that is clearly going to open himself up to mistakes. If we have no turnovers, that would be great. I'm not convinced that would mean a victory because I think we are going to have a hard time sustaining drives. If we punt every 3, 4 or 5 plays we could still win the turnover battle and lose the game. I hope that is not the case. Winning the turnover battle is usually a good indicator because teams with an offense will turn that into points...and our offense is pretty offensive.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
Indiana has a pretty good rush defense, Ask Penn State. They loaded the box and Michigan was still successful on the ground. (IU's overall numbers are dragged down by OSU game yardage).
OKorn will have to throw at some point, but we should find some success on the ground.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^
I realize IU has a good run defense, and I hope we run through PSU like we did them. I just am not as optimistic that it will happen.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^
And if the receivers catch the passes thrown to them, that should not be a problem.
October 16th, 2017 at 7:23 PM ^
It's crazy that throwing for 100 yards is something we are hoping to accomplish.
October 16th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 7:57 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
October 16th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
about this season. We need steady qb play, take better care of the football, and see our young defense to force some turnovers to win. With a half a season under their belt, the time is right. We might be due for a few fumbles to go our way too. Hopeful.
October 16th, 2017 at 8:15 PM ^
2 years ago (2 to 1) and still won 28 - 16. However - be MUCH MORE CONCERNED about the ridiculous penalty discrepancy. In 2015 it was 13 to 3. At IU last week it was 16 to 5 (and that is only only counting 1 of the 3 penalties called on just 1 play ... which is fucking bullshit).
The msu game had a TD called back on a hold that only gets called against us ... that would never get called on osu ... and you all know that's true.
So yeah ... turnovers always have an impact ... but watch out for the zebras on Saturday night.
Go Blue!