Significance of winning next two games for MBB
Obviously we need one more win to secure the outright regular season title.
I was looking at the last two games and realized that Illinois and Indiana represent the only two teams in the conference that we have not won against this year.
I was wondering how significant it would be if we win out. How rare is it in the BIG overall and for Michigan (specifically) to beat every team within the conference in a single season.
Discuss.......
Go Blue!!!
Banner > beating tom crean > beating every BIG team
I can and must diagree with beat Crean > beat everyone
If we beat everyone it's because we beat Indiana PLUS we beat everyone else
So it's mathematically and logically impossible for beating Crean to be better than beating Crean PLUS everybody else. Google "conjunctive fallacy"
Leave the fallacies for RCMB and the like
You clearly do not understand sarcasm or jokes. You must be a hoot at parties. I hope I never sit next to you at any Michigan sporting events. I have a feeling the convo would play out like this:
Me: dang, we never run that play effectively
you: actually, 7 years ago at 1:03pm vs. Akron we ran it for 6 yards, which is technically considered effective. You should google "effective"
You're actually technically incorrect (the best kind of incorrect!). If beating a specific team has a negative value, it could absolutely be the case that Beat Crean > Beat Everyone.
For example -- imagine that your second favorite B1G team is Norwestern (as it probably should be). In that case, beating everyone would include beating Michigan. That clearly has a negative value from the point of view of a Michigan fan. In that case, I think it would be safe to say that (Northwestern) beating Crean > (Northwestern) beating everyone.
Why does it have to be an either/or? I want to do all of those.
We did it the last time we won the outright championship but there were two more games, two fewer teams and no Izzo, Crean or Ryan back then. We lost to Knight (I mean Mr. Knight or Coach Knight) in the hexed Assembly Hall and at Northwestern (after travelling through a blizzard to get there)
We play the same number of games now as then - 18.
The B1G had 18 games through 1997, played 16 from 1998-2007 and then went back to 18 from 2008 onward.
It's harder to do that now, but I'll guess it wasn't that uncommon back when there were only 10 teams in the conference, and each team played every other team twice.
One thing that would be more significant (other than the Big Ten title) would be a record of 15-3, which would tie for the third-best Big Ten record in Michigan history. From the record book:
Our odds of accumulating a record in our own ten best in the history of the program is fairly good, I would say, at this juncture:
RECORD | Illinois | Indiana | PROBABILITY (EST.) |
(15-3) | 0.65 | 0.84 | 54.60% |
(14-4) | 0.65 | 0.16 | 10.40% |
(14-4) | 0.35 | 0.84 | 29.40% |
(13-5) | 0.35 | 0.16 | 5.60% |
The 15-3 row is our estimated shot at winning out, followed by the scenarios of beating Illinois but losing to Indiana and then vice versa. The last row is the relatively unlikely scenario of losing out. By the numbers, we've put up one of the best performances of any Michigan team almost regardless at this point.
Wow, going 15-3 in 92-93 and finishing third is tough.
I don't think that's correct. IU was in 1st but I'm pretty sure we were 2nd.
The Michigan record book has that wrong. Here are the standings from the Big Ten Media Guide:
In that media guide, I found another reason to hope that Michigan can win the title outright this year. The Wolverines now have 14 Big Ten basketball championships. That's one more than the 13 that MSU has.
That was my first year in Ann Arbor. Indiana had its usual help from the officials at Assembly Hall. I remember Penn State in particular getting some rough calls against them when they were surprisingly in the game late.
Our official record was 0-3, good for last place. Our 15 B1G wins were vacated.
You still want to have an unapologetic Chris Webber come back to take a bow?
I'd be curious to know if anyone can ever recall a team winning the Big Ten after losing their best player/top recruit for the entire Big Ten season like we did with McGary.
/s
Not sure we crush Illinois. Kenpom 25 defense, at their home and our defense has the ability to make their offense and guys like Rice, Abrams, Hill and Nunn look like superstars. Still think we pull it out as our length on the perimeter and offensive firepower will be too much.
this. Illinois is looking to be a tough game, especially on the road. But I'd really like us to wrap up the outright B1G and make Indiana frosting on the cake.
It's definitely most important for seeding purposes. I'd love to sneak in as a 2 seed, or at least snag the 3 seed in Wichita's region
Yeah, Lunardi (FWIW, which is not all that much) has us at #10 overall currently. One of the teams ahead of us is Wisconsin, so presumably if we can win the BTT tournament too we'd pass them. There's not much difference between 2/3 but it'd be a nice thing to have.
They didn't return almost everyone.
I'm not saying they aren't good. I'm saying using last year's final four run to say this team is good is ridiculous. They lost 3 of their top 5 scorers. Those same 3 guys were also in the top 5 minutes played for them. They "really only lost Armstead" the same way Michigan "really only lost Burke" from last year's team.
Saint Louis is a poor man's Ohio State. Same level defense, worse offense. They've lost every tough game they've been in this year.
Kansas scares me WAYYYYY more. There is no way we can guard their bits without McGary, they score what like 60+ points in the paint against us last year and you could argue that they are BETTER inside this year and we don't have Burke to bail us out. I want no part of Kansas and their size, bring on the Shockers or Syracuse maybe even AZ but not Kansas.
Yes, it's very important to guard your bits against Kansas.
I don't think Indiana St was an unknown commodity heading into the tourney. They were a #1 seed, had a first team all-american who was the 6th pick in the 1978 NBA draft but decided to come back for his last year at ISU.
Now granted the amount of media wasn't nearly as big as it is now, but it's not like ISU was a low seed who made it to the title game.
Tom Crean is ruining their program. He can stay as long as he wants.
In other news, this year's ruined Izzo's program for next year--just wait, he'll bring it up...
I obviously hope that we win out, but as long as we beat that asshat Tom Crean, I will have zero complaints. I hope we take Indiana to the woodshed and beat them senseless. And while it seems likely that Indiana is not heading for the tournament at this point, I hope we get to be the team that puts the final nail in their coffin.
we would be the 1 seed and play the winner of Indiana/Illinois, so maybe we will get two more shots at IU.
A lot of posbang threads.
/s
I was just at Bloomington last night, and I yelled Go Blue at every event I was at. IU can suck it.
I'm thrilled that we're Big Ten champs, but it'd be nice to win out to make it feel extra good. Don't want to limp into the tournament.