Should we be pulling for an osu win Saturday?

Submitted by ak47 on October 18th, 2023 at 11:54 AM

Question is in the title. If you believe psu and osu are roughly equivalent teams we should probably be hoping osu wins on Saturday. The reasoning basically follows that if you believe they are equal, beating osu at home is more likely than beating psu on the road and there isn’t really another loss for either team on the schedule. If osu wins Michigan can survive a loss to psu on the road and still win the big ten east, if psu wins Michigan would have to win on the road to avoid the tiebreaker loss to psu.

So to give Michigans season more flexibility in winning it all, an osu win would be better. But also rooting for osu is gross and I get if nobody does it out of principle. 

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rice4114

October 18th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^

Hello I have no idea what happened last year but wouldnt it be great if OSU ended the season with one loss? Absolutely no way they could come within a field goal of the championship game right? 

Ill plan on Michigan being undefeated and the next priority is all the OSU losses. Every day of the off season we had to hear about OSUs biggest win of the season was their loss to Georgia. Their close loss gave everyone in the media the warm and fuzzies about OSU. No more bull shit.

Im with you D-dub.

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Blau

October 18th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^

I think it comes down to less of who wins and what the game tape will show for strategy/planning when they play Michigan. 

In my opinion, the worst thing about the SOS so far is that Michigan hasn't been able to work out any in-game strategies as far as having to make 2nd half adjustments or key in on certain players or position groups. There hasn't been a lick of adversity they've had to face and so far, they've just had to not beat themselves. I'm looking for an exposure element for the team to lock-in on and then exploit. With all due respect to the remaining teams on the schedule, UM should be practicing for PSU at least a portion of the time until that game and then the same with OSU when/if they beat the Nittany lions. 

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schreibee

October 18th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^

In the scenario described by the OP, and apparently agreed upon by carolina & others, wouldn't all 3 teams end with 1 loss - creating a 3-way tie?

Have I misread something here?

And who knows what would happen in a 3-way tie? What are the tiebreakers? Probably somewhere in there is net scoring? Probably better pour it on whenever possible - hopefully starting this week.

I say "starting" because, although Michigan has scored over 50 in consecutive games, it's never felt like they were pouring it on. But for the sake of the tiebreaker, let's do it!

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Perkis-Size Me

October 18th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^

I've gone back and forth on this over the last few days, and strangely I think its better for Michigan if OSU wins. 

The OSU game always has and will always be more important to win than beating PSU, but I personally think the PSU game this year will be the toughest game on Michigan's schedule, simply because its on the road, and it'll be Michigan's first true test in the year and it won't come until mid-November. If PSU was at home and OSU was on the road I'd say OSU is the toughest game of the year, but I think these opponents, if Michigan played them on a neutral field, are fairly interchangeable.

Assuming I can't get a meteor, I'd rather have some ugly, disgusting game between both of these teams on Saturday where OSU rips PSU's heart out in the final plays, causing PSU to be dejected and deflated for the rest of the season (OSU is PSU's measuring stick, not Michigan), Michigan takes advantage of that in a few weeks, escapes Happy Valley with a win, removes the Western division tie-breaker from the equation that Penn State is going to have wrapped up because Iowa is on their schedule, and then Michigan can play an undefeated OSU for all the marbles.

 

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GLORY

October 18th, 2023 at 6:19 PM ^

This isn't fun exercise, but the more favorable path (though ever slightly this may be) for us is OSU win. 

I agree that the Penn State game on the road is a tougher game but also, the OSU win would at least give us little more flexibility (if we were to lose to PSU) as Penn State would still have to play at Maryland right before us, and that's no gimme.  Thus, (perhaps) we could potentially play in Happy Valley with a mulligan?  However, if Penn State wins, our game there is an absolute, must-win scenario with everything on the line. 

So, to answer the OP's question and just purely looking for more favorable/flexible path to achieve our goals (Big Ten and Natty), the correct answer is OSU. 

You don't have to root for OSU, just root for Penn State to lose.

 

 

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ak47

October 18th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^

This is fair, i didn’t really go through the three team tiebreaker scenarios to see how Michigan would fair but i guess with Iowa likely to win the west psu would have the upside there.

This is also why you schedule better, a one loss Michigan isn’t getting into the playoffs without winning the big ten so that’s a lot of pressure on just two games 

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Alton

October 18th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^

Short answer, as has been pointed out, is that if Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all finish 11-1 then Michigan is almost certain to finish 3rd in the 3-way tiebreaker (it's the cumulative record of each team's West Division opponents).

So it doesn't matter who wins OSU v PSU; Michigan has to beat them both either way.

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ak47

October 18th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^

Because I care more about Michigan having the best possible season than osu having an extra loss? I’m a Michigan fan, not an osu hater first. If osu winning makes it more likely Michigan wins a national championship I’m going to want osu to win. That feels pretty simple.

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mfan_in_ohio

October 18th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^

It doesn't matter. Michigan has to beat both teams to get to the B1G championship because they will lose the crossover schedule difficulty tiebreaker.  Penn State would probably win the 3-way tie because they played Iowa.  Michigan plays 3 of the worst teams in the B1G West (Neb, Minn, Purdue) so there is almost no way they win that tiebreaker.  

So, basically, root for what you want to happen, which is probably an OSU loss.  If nothing else, it would likely keep OSU out of the playoff regardless of how Michigan does.  Highly doubtful the B1G gets two teams this year, with plausible ACC, Big12, and PAC12 champs available.

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Wolverine 73

October 18th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^

Why would anyone ever root for an OSU win?  Who knows how the games play out?  One thing we know for sure is that an OSU loss is good for Michigan recruiting and self esteem.  Always root against OSU.

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