Recalibrating Expectations After Week One
Was able to watch several games yesterday with teams on our schedule that we considered somewhere between likely loss/likely win territory and came away feeling encouraged about Michigan's chances.
Washington - feels like a must win at this point. They struggled mightily offensively and obviously lost to a (good) FCS opponent.
Wisconsin - Still will be tough but Mertz is not a five star talent and their skill positions are underwhelming. Can DL manage to not get gashed?
Nebraska - looks like they're playing in 3/4 speed. Very bad team.
Northwestern - Don't have any guys and their run fits looked awful against MSU. Will be a rough year for them.
Indiana - I expect them to be 4-4 at best when they come to town. They aren't ready for big time football and weren't remotely competitive against Iowa. We were told lies about this team but they are not a NY6 Contending outfit.
Penn St - still going to be a tough game and despite their best attempts to lose yesterday won a tough one on the road, but Clifford is very average.
Overall seeing a lot more mediocrity on the schedule than many anticipated going into this week. If Michigan can manage to be good, going into OSU at 10-1 feels within the realm of possibility, and chances of missing a bowl game seem slim. Of course, we could set fire to this whole thing next week, but wanted to see where everyone's heads are at. Go Blue!
September 5th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
My expectations remain low. I’ve been hurt too many times
September 5th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
Close the thread.
We were all looking forward to a double digit win record last year after the Minnesota game. We thought Milton would give us a great chance against OSU. By the end of it, we were all happy that the OSU game got canceled.
One fun game against a directional MAC team isn't enough to convince me. I need to see that offense again, about 5 times in the next 5 games, before I'll believe that it's here to stay.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
It’s entirely possible yesterday was the result of playing a bad MAC team. I don’t think the comparisons hold to Minnesota and Florida made elsewhere in this thread- both of those teams had a lot of guys out (COVID for Minn, that credit card scam for UF) for game 1 making them way worse than the below average P5 teams that they were.
Yesterday we soundly beat a probably non awful G5 team and started emptying the bench halfway through the 3rd quarter, after which the lead actually increased. Gained a lot of yards and didn’t have a lot of short fields. One TD given up in non garbage time. That is pretty much checking all the boxes IMO, not sure what else you could really reasonably ask for.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
"not sure what else you could reasonably ask for" - ok, I'll play: evidence of actual reads correctly made on zone read plays, including correct QB keeps by the starting QB; consistent gap control by interior DL without help from run blitzing LBs or pinching DEs; RBs hitting 5 yds from scrimmage without needing to cut; run-to-the-line tempo plays that (i) aren't just repeats of the previous play, and (ii) don't just fling a back at a pile of bodies at the LOS; zone coverages routinely forcing opponent QBs to 3rd+ reads/dangerous passes into unexpected coverage/"coverage" sacks...
Don't get me wrong, product on the field looked much better than last year, but while blowing out inferior competition is great, truly competing with top notch opponents is better. Whether that's going to happen this year or not certainly remains to be seen.
September 5th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
"...not sure what else you could really reasonably ask for."
Let me rephrase what I asked for, using the same phrase: "I need to see that offense again, about 5 times in the next 5 games, before I'll believe that it's here to stay."
I'm not sure what else you think I was asking for. Is that not reasonable - that we see an open, modern offense, all year?
September 7th, 2021 at 12:06 AM ^
Exactly right. Alabama is the only team that looked great. Even OSU who does the Saban thing now, ok defense, but can put up points, didn’t look great against Minnesota. They complain we’re delusional, but OSU’s defense is really bad. Can’t wait for it to hurt them this year. Oh, but when their corners come back, lol, it was so impressive last year. I’d rather be in the conversation like Ohio State every year, but they aren’t gonna ever beat Bama with that defense they put out on a consistent basis. They praise Minnesota like they’re a top 25 team, I doubt that even if they’re running back wasn’t out for the season. I’m skeptical we’re a top 25 team, but Ohio State will hang 70 pts. On Georgia, you know! If we beat Penn State then we know, because Wisconsin is trash this year. Honestly, outside Ohio State, and Iowa this year who can you honestly say looked good in the B1G. Michigan did what they paid Western to do, lose. So even if it looked promising until they do this to B1G opponents I find this false hope! I wish we would find out this Saturday like we thought, but we’re probably going to crush Washington. If we don’t, last year might look great compared to this year.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
It WAS a nice win but couldn't agree more. All that has happened so far is that Lucy winked at us. We beat a MAC team. I miss the days when this wasn't reason for rejoicing in the streets.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
The thing that scared me the most yesterday was seeing absolutely no attempt at a QB run game. That is simply something, in a modern spread offense, that cannot be forsaken. We might be able to run and dink-and-dunk outside against Western. But if we can't add the QB run dimension as a credible threat, we're eventually going to run into a brick wall against better defenses. There were too many 1 yard dives that could have been QB-read keepers for chunks. I am really hoping (against hope, since we've never really shown the willingness to run that piece consistently) that yesterday these keeps were omitted just because it wasn't necessary.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
Let’s say they attempt a QB run . . . In the first game . . . Against WMU . . .and QB-1 gets hurt. Respectfully, I see no reason to trot that play out against WMU.
September 5th, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
Yeah, if you think people were complaining about Ronnie Bell returning punts, let a starting QB get hurt on a designed run against Western
September 5th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
I'm more than happy if they omitted it because it wasn't necessary. I'm just nervous because in other seasons we've also failed to develop that package to any meaningful extent.
September 5th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
lol. The offense is the offense - how often in the past 7 years have we said “great they won this game without showing anything” only to discover they didn’t show anything because there was nothing to show.
September 5th, 2021 at 7:56 PM ^
This is, unfortunately, completely consistent with reality.
September 5th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^
And a good backup option to a QB run is the screen pass, which we executed quite well.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:37 PM ^
I was there and kept wondering why the runs into the pile. It wasn’t until they did the sweep with Henning that I realized they were setting it up. There was a lot that they could do off that play and I’d like to think they are setting up some rpo action off it. Seems like Wilson got a big chunk off the same play later. Maybe we are all suffering from ptsd from the past but maybe also they are trying to let the offense evolve. Either way we will find out most likely by week 4… A lot to like and a lot to work on. If it’s true that you make your best strides from week 1 to week 2 we should hope to be happy next week at this time. Go Blue!!
September 7th, 2021 at 12:13 AM ^
Which defense are you worried about this month? And why would you run your QB this month? Just wondering because it seems like a terrible idea to risk injury this month when you can just use your running back to run the ball!
September 7th, 2021 at 12:20 AM ^
Plus McNamara isn’t a running qb, he’s a scrambler. Name the last running qb to win a National Championship Mr. Guru. The last team with one I can remember is Auburn.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:34 AM ^
It’s honestly why Georgia let go of Fields. He was good for OSU, but he didn’t win them a National Championship, but the QB they let transfer out because of Fields did win LSU a National Championship. Give me a pocket passer who can scramble every year and I’ll be happy! Rushing passers are very outdated now. Honestly give me a rushing qb in college football Michigan should desire. I can’t think of one, and outside D. Robinson, I loved all our starting pocket passers in the pros.
September 5th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
Avatar fits this post...100%. A +1 to you.
September 5th, 2021 at 3:23 PM ^
LOL, we've all got battered wife Michigan fan syndrome.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:49 AM ^
My expectations have remained calibrated precisely the same: There will be pain.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
Agree. I thought 8-4 before the season, and think that now. Anyone that is more optimistic after yesterday wasn't alive during our many other 3-4 loss seasons that included solid pastings of a MAC team early on. Hope I'm wrong of course.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
It’s still early but going into the season I was never that concerned with Washington. Felt it was a game we should win. Tough games will be Wisconsin penn state and OSU. All the other games we are very capable of winning. Would say Wisconsin and Penn State we could easily get one of those go 10-2 and play in a good bow game. Win that game finish in top 10 get a very good recruiting class and hopefully have the program on the right track
September 5th, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
...our many other 3-4 loss seasons that included solid pastings of a MAC team early on
This had me curious! Here's a summary of our performance in seasons (going back to 2001) that included wins against MAC/directional schools:
- 2001 Lost at Wash, then beat WMU; 8-4
- 2002 Beat Wash, then beat WMU, then lost to ND; 10-3
- 2003 Beat CMU 45-7; 10-3
- 2005 Beat NIU, lost to ND, beat EMU; 7-5
- 2006 Beat CMU, won @ ND; 11-2
- 2007 Beat EMU mid-season; 9-4
- 2009 Beat WMU, then beat ND, then beat EMU; 5-7
- 2011 Beat WMU, then beat ND, then beat EMU; 11-2
- 2013 Beat CMU, then beat ND; 7-6
- 2018 Beat WMU; 10-3
Average wins: 8.8
Average losses: 3.9
I'm slightly more optimistic after yesterday's results. I'm not sure if a solid pasting of a MAC team early on is a reliable indicator of how the season will play out, but I respect the prediction of an 8-4 record (and hope we do better).
Go Blue
September 5th, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
You didn't add the more important stat: the score. "Beating" is not equivalent to "pasting". A squeaker against a directional school and finishing 8-4 is not the same thing as a throttling against a directional school and finishing 10-2.
September 5th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
I mean, not really. We beat CMU 59-9 in 2013, but we showed all of the bad tendencies in that game that led to a 7-6 record that season. Sometimes one team just has a lot more talent than the other. Corum, Henning, and Wilson are really fast, way faster than anyone on WMU. That doesn’t mean the play calling or line play was particularly good. A win is good, but not so sure a 33-point win over WMU is a great predictor for how many wins we will ultimately have.
September 5th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
My thoughts exactly.
Eight wins until proven otherwise.
Eagerly accepting the possibility that it could be more wins. But sadly accepting the fact that it could be far fewer.
September 5th, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
The schedule has always been OSU plus eleven teams that range from bad to above average. That hasn’t changed. I’m not sure why anyone thought we had a tough schedule. I’ll buy the argument that Washington went from lean loss to lean win, but otherwise nothing has changed.
This is is a soft schedule and always has been. The modest expectations most of us have for the season reflect not the quality of opponents, but rather the quality of Michigan as a team. Based upon talent level and the results of the last two seasons, Michigan looks like a mediocre to above average P5 team, hence 7.5 wins being a good O/U. Maybe that’s 8 now.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^
And at this point all we can say is that we're probably above average. Maybe. That, and teams performances change week to week. The lackluster PSU offense you saw this week will probably put up 8 touchdowns on Ball State next week and we'll think they're explosive. I'll relax when we start playing OSU competitively.
September 5th, 2021 at 12:46 PM ^
So pre-season Michigan's schedule had more top 25 teams than any other team in the country, but you're saying it's a soft schedule ? That's either being clueless or just repeating what the trolls say. Week 1 is nothing more than opening night ... plenty of football to play, we may have lost Bell for the year - who was one of THE leaders on this team.
Michigan isn't looking at Washington's loss, or Wisconsin's, or Indiana's as a signal that they are not good - no coach would ever think that and you're incredible uninformed if you believe that's true.
Go Blue!
September 5th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
Somebody is already in mid season lather.
Is that the same top 25 that had Washington #20? Pre-season top 25s & strength of schedule are not completely without merit, but hanging your hat on them is definitely “clueless”. Get back to me at the end of the season.
As for how Michigan or their coaches look at other teams, I said nothing about that, but now that you brought it up, This Michigan team has proven nothing. They better not dismiss or denigrate ANY team until after they have secured a victory. Beyond that, I do believe one thing Harbaugh does correct is to teach his team to respect their opponent no matter their record or stats.
September 6th, 2021 at 12:20 AM ^
Two somewhat contradictory things come into to play.
1) prior to week 4 you really don't know what teams really look like. I believe a preseason unranked team has made it to the top 10 something like 18 tears in a row.
2) Pundits don't throw darts at a board and pick UAB. A lot of experts spend time, energy and resources making best estimates. it's a science albeit an inexact science.
Most of these industry insiders suggest Michigan's schedule to be quite tough. You however know different. I'm curious as to what make you so much smarter than all those individuals whose professional lives revolve around college football?
September 5th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Michigan's schedule is soft, but so is every other team's. Teams that create hard schedules for themselves don't get into the major bowls and so leave money on the table. That's why no one does it.
September 5th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
This is a fair point.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
It becomes a little easier to see us winning nine games, in my view. OTOH, Maryland has some players (and may be increasingly solid going forward). We'll know more after next week, but Wisconsin's looking more like the true test now.
I still think that, to a degree, the record could feel less important than ending the year with a team that's trending upward, looking organized, playing with zeal.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
I was much more worried about Maryland in 2020. After seeing them this year I think we’ll be fine. They’ll be able to score but there defense is awful. Sparty might be a hard game, Wisconsin will depend on if they’ll be able to gash us on the run. I think I read they had 30 first downs. Penn State just kept them out of the end zone.
Lot of games look winnable just hope we continue to improve on defense and aren’t afraid to take more deep shots than we did yesterday.
September 5th, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
Sparty "might be a hard game" ?? WTF
Herein lies the problem. Until everyone starts taking them seriously, we will never take charge of this series.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
Taking all the Kool aid through an IV today. CHOO CHOO MOTHER FUCKERS!!!!!!
But seriously. Just taking it one game at a time and cherishing normalcy. Can't fucking wait to go to games this year. If they end up losing to Wisconsin or Penn State, there will be plenty of time to be pissy about that later.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:55 AM ^
Nothing Michigan did yesterday changed my mind much about the team, but I do think the schedule is much softer than anticipated
September 5th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
Exactly this. The MSU game the other night. It was hard to tell if northwestern was just that terrible or that Sparty is a world beater. Which would be ridiculous considering they had 25 transfers
September 5th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
There were a lot of encouraging signs on defense. They looked organized, disguised coverages, Nikhai Hill looks like the real deal. They got gashed up the middle a bit but played 6 in the box because Eleby is an efficient passer. In other words, the defense adapted to the opposing teams strengths. I’m less concerned about MacDonald as a play caller. OTOH, Bell’s injury is huge. Didn’t look like they had much of a backup plan on punt returns, and his loss in the passing game going to be a big problem going forward.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
What's in your glass, TKAG?
September 5th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
Looks like blue flavor, to me...
September 5th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^
I would hope for more exuberance from someone who consumes the KoolAid to such an extent.
September 5th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
It's one week.
There is no reason for anyone's expectations to change.
Whatever you thought before the season could EASILY hold true.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
Yes, let’s cling to our pre-season expectations that were based on nothing instead of an actual week of games?
September 5th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
It's ONE game.
Christ.
How is that nearly enough data?
If Shaq goes to the line and makes his first free throw...does that some how mean I should change my expectation of him only making 5 of the next 11? No.
If he makes his first 3 or 4...should I change my expectation? Sure.
You need data, but go off and while you're at it...hand out your September Heisman, Tate Forcier needs company.
Last year...what did Minnesota tell you? Did it tell you we would be better than 2-4 and wouldn't lose to a shit MSU team at home? I'm sure it did.
One week tells you NOTHING.
Michigan can still be 6-6, like I said...'20 Minnesota. Or maybe there 10-2. Whatever you had going in can very well be true.
And who had us losing to WMU anyway? No one. Us winning doesn't change anything. No one played way above or below expectation either.
Nationally, Clemson can still run the ACC and make the playoff. They lost to Georgia whose offense didn't score a TD on them!
OSU can still run the table. Struggles versus Minnesota in game one, on the road don't all of a sudden mean something.
Washington can still be decent and beat Michigan, who knows?
We can go on and on.
It's one week. Stop it.
September 5th, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
And for the record, I've always been a HUGE proponent of no polls until after week 3.
25% of the season is completed. You have a MUCH better chance of actually picking the best teams.
You are only marginally better making a snap judgment after 1 game than you were 2 days ago.
3 games in? Okay, now maybe you have a trend or two. Right now? Relax. Everything that was on the table 2 days ago is still there.
September 5th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
If you track rankings throughout the season its usually fairly obvious that there are a handful of teams that are only in the position they are in because of preseason rankings. Not always their own, but someones.
They shouldn't come out until mid-season, IMO, they effect the integrity of the sport way too much.