OT: The Sturgis Rally and COVID

Submitted by JamesBondHerpesMeds on September 8th, 2020 at 10:29 AM

TL;DR - Sturgis is estimated to be responsible for over 25%(!!) of cases in the month of August. 

Should we bill the governor?

 

New @SDSUCHEPS paper by Dhaval Dave @FriedsonAndrew @Drew_McNichols & Joe Sabia ("Contagion Externality of Super-spreader") finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B

See: https://t.co/uByz9ja6hL pic.twitter.com/jdLlLkwRek

— CHEPS (@SDSUCHEPS) September 6, 2020

TrueBlue2003

September 8th, 2020 at 7:12 PM ^

you just talked about how context matters which is important but you ignore the context of comorbidities.

they are so critically important in many deaths.  people rarely just up and die without accumulating a number of health issues.  so with covid, it's not necessarily any more critically important than any other cause of death.  You'd need to know the context for that. 

How many deaths regardless of the cause only list a single cause of death?  Not many. The best data I could find said only 1/3: https://dphhs.mt.gov/Portals/85/publichealth/documents/Epidemiology/VSU…

The paper even said diabetes and hypertension were the most commonly listed additional causes, and this was from 2015. 

So the fact that "only" 6% of covid deaths list only covid as a cause of death means it's really no different than most other diseases/non-accidental deaths as it relates to comorbidities.

 

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

Rickett88

September 8th, 2020 at 11:03 AM ^

Before this gets locked, or we get too far into political land, there is a pretty easy and safe (not political) answer to this spread.

The reason we aren't seeing spreads anymore in places that are protesting is the virus has burned through those areas. Large cities (NY, Chi, DC, Portland, Seattle, LA, Miami, etc.) have already seen the big bump because people live so close to each other and the virus spreads quickly through those areas. We weren't as prepared in the beginning, so major cities were hardest hit.

Sturgis was the start of a new hot bed, given you had a lot of people that had not had the wave sweep through them yet, so they were likely to get a lot of cases spread through the gathering.

That being said.. (and this seems to be common sense, but may seem political), the lock downs, or stay at home orders, seem to just delay the spread of the virus in an area that is highly congested. Be smart about your decisions seeing this general trend and if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, stay away from large gatherings. 

Joined: 08/21/2012

MGoPoints: 10566

Carpetbagger

September 8th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^

Agreed. Which is why you couldn't have gotten me near Sturgis for any reason. Large gatherings, with or without masks aren't the smartest things you can do right now.

All that being said, I figure the number of cases caused by this event will be just as made up as the protest numbers quoted are. They've been pre-made up to fit whatever agenda the media want to give at that moment. Right now, cases are in steep decline in most of the country, I'm sure they need another pinata to whack.

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 6682

Carpetbagger

September 8th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^

Except the US isn't one "health system". New York and the Northeast and Detroit were a mess, but the rest of the country was fine. If it would have spread elsewhere due to a lack of lock-down, those had their own PPE and ventilators and hospitals.

All the country-wide panic did is delay the spread 2-3 months for no reason whatsoever.

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 6682

Shop Smart Sho…

September 8th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

That simply isn't true though. No city has even approached a critical mass of infection rate to get to the mythical "herd immunity" at this point. And if the reports of decreasing antibodies and reinfection are substantiated as we move into fall and winter, it will completely disprove the idea that it is even possible. If you wear masks, social distance, and avoid crowded inside spaces, you can begin to control the spread of the disease. 

Joined: 07/10/2008

MGoPoints: 9599

Carpetbagger

September 8th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^

That depends on your definition of herd immunity. There will never be a herd immunity like Polio or Measles. If that is your expectation, it's simply impossible. This isn't those diseases.

The Flu is our closest comparable, that has a vaccine, and we still have 30-50k deaths a year from the Flu. Mostly the elderly.

My guess would be "functional" herd immunity would be having a death run rate under 100k a year with or without a vaccine. This Covid is more deadly, but there are only so many elderly and at risk in the pool. 274/day.

Where are we now?

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 6682

username03

September 8th, 2020 at 1:14 PM ^

"And if the reports of decreasing antibodies and reinfection are substantiated as we move into fall and winter, it will completely disprove the idea that it is even possible."

If this is true than this:

"If you wear masks, social distance, and avoid crowded inside spaces, you can begin to control the spread of the disease. "

Is either irrelevant or will have to go on for eternity.

Joined: 02/12/2016

MGoPoints: 14535

bronxblue

September 8th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

I keep seeing people talk about proximity as some cause for the spread of the disease but...other than NY I don't think that's really the case.  Yes, population center had more cases because there are more people to get sick, but most of these cities are not nearly as densely populated as major cities in other parts of the world, yet they all experienced as least as intense of outbreaks.  I mean, Detroit has a population density of about 4.8k/square mile, Portland is 4.7k/square mile.  Seattle is about 7.2k/square mile, DC is higher at 9.8k/square mile, Chicago is 12k/square mile, Boston 13k/square mile.  But NYC is 27k/square mile, and even there hotspots were uneven; some areas in the Bronx and Queens had huge outbreaks while Manhattan had fewer.

And if it was true that COVID-19 "burned through" areas (which is scientifically dubious), then why are we seeing new cases in previously-hit, dense European countries?  Did the virus "forget" it had already been there?  

The more likely explanation for why Sturgis caused an uptick was because, based on the various video and images I saw, people didn't use any social distancing measures and few masks; they defiantly acted like their motorcycles and leather jackets were sufficient to protect them from a viral infection and, shockingly, that didn't happen.  The reason cases dropped in large cities was mostly because, out of necessity, people followed preventive measures and wore masks and social distanced.  As those measure loosen cases rise, and we're already seeing how that looks at schools as kids come back.  But this incorrect notion that some form of herd immunity exists because places that took the virus seriously and acted accordingly is tiring because it is used by those who want to absolve themselves of responsibility, as if getting this disease is somehow inevitable and YOLO.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171927

wolverine1987

September 8th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^

Bravo. All the data agrees with this post. 

On a related topic, case numbers are close to irrelevant for a virus with a large number of asymptomatic positives, testing with long leads times for results, and PCR testing which has been demonstrated by no less than the NYT to have a high number of false positives. Any time you read a headline or article your next question should be "what is the hospitalizations data?" That is at the data that counts.

Joined: 07/07/2008

MGoPoints: 18076

Hotel Putingrad

September 8th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^

Yes, hospitalizations are more significant than cases, but the fact remains a lot of people get rough symptoms without requiring hospitalization. This is especially true for the long haulers.

In all likelihood, there are two really problematic issues (beyond the generally immunocompromised elderly): obesity and high viral load. Most people can mitigate the latter with masks and distancing. The former should also be a point of national emphasis. 

Joined: 12/10/2014

MGoPoints: 212683

tspoon

September 8th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^

Regarding obesity, much of America does not want to hear that its lifestyle needs to change.  It's as simple as that. 

And the sad part is that as tragic as the COVID crisis is, this is just the crisis-du-jour part of the massive (pun intended) personal, familial and societal cost of the general craptastic McLifestyle of a huge (I am so punny) slice of our populace.

 

Joined: 07/30/2008

MGoPoints: 3814

SalvatoreQuattro

September 8th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^

It isn’t obesity that is the problem. It is ailments that often come obesity that make this bad,

An obese person  who is otherwise healthy isn’t likely going to die or be hospitalized because of Covid.

8 of 10 killed by Covid are 65 or older.

 

Age by far is the dominant determinant in severity of the disease..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joined: 11/30/2010

MGoPoints: 79364

BlueRob

September 8th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^

hmmm...  this newly published article from the AP seems to think actual obesity is an issue, not just the other issues that come with being obese.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/why-is-obesity-tied-to-severe-covid-19/ar-BB18PmRq?ocid=msedgntp

Obesity may be one reason some countries or communities have been hit hard by the virus, researchers say. In the United States, the obesity rate among adults has climbed for decades and is now at 42 percent. The rate is even higher among Black and Hispanic Americans.

 

The increased numbers in the US may have less to do with the response to Covid and more to do with the fact that a lot of the US lives a pretty unhealthy lifestyle.

Joined: 09/02/2020

MGoPoints: 417

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 10:59 AM ^

Every other country (except Brazil): Please where masks and keep physically distanced.

Every other country's people: Okay.

 

US: Masks may be good.  They may be not.  Who knows.  We'll see.  I'm not wearing one.

US people: Don't tell me what to do.  A mask is an affront to my liberties.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^

Why does it have to be construed as hating on America?  Did the overwhelming majority of Americas agree to wear masks or not?  How many still call it a hoax?

I'm not saying every other country had 100% compliance, but the clear hallmark of slowing (even halting) the spread is citizen participation that involves acting as a community member rather than an individual.

Europe goes on holiday in August.  I'm willing to bet people got lackadaisical in their vigilence and have thus created a new rise.  This article seems to suggest it's the younger generation, much like our college students.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/world/europe/france-coronavirus.html…;

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

phil

September 8th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^

the entire set up of your post (sans brazil) is aimed directly at american attitudes pal.  you blame american individualism for the outbreaks.  

try and entertain the thought that while the federal response was an unmitigated disaster, people are not wrong to question current policy.  As of this weekend, I saw that out of 12k positive tests among college students, there were zero known hospitalizations.  Maybe instead of just thinking that america is bad because people question things, question if the ongoing narrative is perhaps wrong and no one has a clear idea of the risks of this virus and that there may be a better way.  

Joined: 09/30/2008

MGoPoints: 856

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^

My set up was snarky and I didn't think it needed /s.  And I'm happy to be your pal.  We could all use more friends and could all work on figuring out how to have debate and discourse again.

There's definitely more blame to go around than just American individualism, as you rightly point out.  And it's fine to question things, but in the meantime, seriously, what does it cost or harm everyone to wear a mask?  Your swing at this comes off to me as a grand leap that questioning whether or not to wear a mask is the same as questioning whether there really were WMDs that warranted starting a war.  I simply don't agree with that because, again, it's not that hard to wear a mask and follow the other guidelines in the interim.  And frankly, I'll be questioning the safety of all the rapidly released vaccines until proven safe and effective, but will wear a mask until then.

I don't wear a mask just for my own benefit or my family's.  It's for the benefit of the greater community.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

BlueRob

September 8th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^

I can only speak for the area of the county I live in but from what I see when I go out, almost every single person has a mask.  I rarely see someone without a mask.  This is happening, even though it is a very conservative area with a ton of Trump supporters.  

The narrative of the majority of Americans are not wearing masks needs to stop.  People can speak up for their rights and question the guidelines...  that does not mean they are refusing to wear them.

Joined: 09/02/2020

MGoPoints: 417

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

That's great your area is doing that.  I recently drove across the country and that was not my experience throughout - we experienced a number of cities/stops on the trip where < 50% were in masks.  It was a little disheartening to say the least.

And you finish with one my points...even if people question the guidelines, there is only positive impact from wearing a mask regardless.

Appreciate you.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

bronxblue

September 8th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^

France has a 7-day rolling average of about 6800 cases during this spike; the US has a rolling average of 41k and that's actually been a downturn for us.  And before you ask, France is not 7 times smaller than the US; it's more like 5 times smaller.  And there's a good chance that the US will have a resurgence as kids start going back to school more and more.  

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171927

HateSparty

September 8th, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^

Blind loyalty with minimal accountability is a recipe for another form of "love".  The US used to strive for and celebrate being, like Michigan, the leaders and the best.  But, because of political winds and seemingly ridiculous increase in stupidity, we as a nation no longer desire that.  It is "hating" to be truthful and then often it is supported by flawed argument and data.  If you spent thirty seconds evaluating the Ferech data, you would not throw that as a comparator for your argument but that's not how you appear to argue. Instead, it is a faux flag waving mantra that is neither real or authentic.  The right has adopted a blind allegiance to a form of "patriotism" that is really a shield to defend a position that is otherwise indefensible.  We see it with religious zealots as well.  Jerry Falwell used that biblical shield until he could no more.  You see the current occupant of the White House stage a bible photo op while, ironically, holding the bible upside down.  It is all part of the schtick.  

If the requirement in some communities to shut down was treated like say, not drinking and driving or wearing a seatbelt or eminent domain, the country would be better off and the current occupant would win in a landslide.  Why the individuals who are willing to die for his tweets don't have the capacity to see that will be the mystery of the century.

 

 

Joined: 12/17/2014

MGoPoints: 27193

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^

Many in Sweden have questioned the decision to allow herd immunity (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133) and admit herd immunity wasn't their goal.  Their economy is still targeted to dip 5% this year.

Additionally, herd immunity may be useless.  We have no idea how long people remain immune after infection (https://www.wsj.com/articles/really-diabolical-inside-the-coronavirus-t…).  Of the other coronoviruses, most have 6 months immunity and one has a max immunity of 34 months (thank goodness that's for the most deadly one).

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

mi93

September 8th, 2020 at 2:34 PM ^

I have no idea. 

Some viruses are successfully defended for a lifetime with a vaccination (polio, measles, rubella, etc.).  I don't believe any of the coronaviruses have a vaccine (most cause the common cold), but this pandemic could lead to ground breaking discovery of how to combat them all.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses&nbsp;

Btw, I'm not a doctor or an infectious disease expert.  Just trying to discern the facts across multiple sources like most here.

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30417

Jimmyisgod

September 8th, 2020 at 11:45 AM ^

Sweden again?  How many times has this been debunked?  Sweden did terribly, every bit as bad as the US despite have so many advantages like a sparsely populated area, free health care, and a more social conscious population.  Sweden saw the same deaths per million people the US did, and their economy took a crap to boot.  The leaders in Sweden failed so bad that the population took it upon themselves to social distance and shut down.  And they aren't any closer to the mythical herd immunity than the US is.

Joined: 01/24/2012

MGoPoints: 10342

blizzardo

September 8th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^

Debunked by whom?

Leaked emails have shown herd immunity was their strategy from the early outset of the virus. Something for which they took incredible flack from the international community.

Numbers in sweden are better than many other countries currently despite having no mask mandate and limited closings. And if they have reached some level of immunity, will be better prepared going forward.

People took it upon themselves to socially distance? What a novel concept! You mean, they dont need to government to tell them how to live? Wish we could have tried that here before forced closures and laying off millions of people 

Joined: 12/11/2011

MGoPoints: 527

TIMMMAAY

September 8th, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^

First, no they didn't "take it upon themselves to socially distance", it's just ingrained in their culture by default. It has been shown, repeatedly that Sweden did not do better than "many other countries". They are among the worst, per capita.

I'd like you to show me (with verifiable facts) that "numbers" in Sweden are better than "many other countries". Use current data, please. I'll wait. 

Joined: 09/08/2008

MGoPoints: 56288

bronxblue

September 8th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^

Shooting for herd immunity means you have to infect *at least* (and this is based on the dubious claims people keep spouting off) of 20% of your population.  For the US to hit that mark they would need to infect 66M people (so basically 10 times the current number of reported cases), and with a mortality rate of around 1-3% in the US we're looking at anywhere between 660k to 2M deaths.  You can play with the numbers a bit but there's no way herd immunity is a viable option when we're talking about non-treatable infections and not, as the term is usually applied, to a community that's been exposed to a vaccine and is trying to protect those who don't/can't have a vaccination.  

If you want to see an example of a place that also sorta-tried herd immunity, look at the UK.  That...didn't go well for them and they reverted to wearing masks and slowly reopening.  

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171927