Moussa vs Hunter NBA Potential?
I've been hearing about how Moussa is high on some NBA mock drafts while Hunter is nowhere to be found on mock drafts (apparently?). I guess I'm having a hard time understanding why. Hunter has improved his outside shooting big time, while Moussa is pretty poor in that area. Moussa also has a lot of work ahead of him to develop his post game, while Hunter is excellent in that area.
Anyway, I was wondering if somebody here could explain what the NBA draft experts see in Moussa that they don't see in Hunter? Is it just that Moussa is more athletic and potentially has more raw talent? That's the only thing that could make any sense to me. I feel like if Moussa left for the NBA after this year that he'd be stuck in the G league for a while, but 1 more year at Michigan he could really explode and improve his draft stock dramatically.
March 20th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
Is it just that Moussa is more athletic and potentially has more raw talent?
Yes.
March 20th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
(End Thread)
March 20th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Exactly. The league still drafts on possibility rather than probability because there are so many more misses than hits, and NBA investment is not severely impacted by today's funnel system into the pros given the NCAA remains an unfunded minor league player development system for the league.
Players have at least now benefited from the emergence of the NIL system and pandemic-related eligibility extension, more G-League opportunities and rookie recruitment incentives.
It's still probability.
Hunter has almost zero chance of being a functional NBA player because of known physical limitations. So he won't get drafted.
Moussa has at least a chance of being a functional NBA player and he has the physical tools to potentially (small chance, but it's there) be a star. You can't teach athleticism. You can teach / learn to shoot and dribble and do the things that he currently lacks.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm pretty sure it's not simply raw talent, but there seem to be hard limits on how Hunter can move his body. I think the concern is that defensively he's going to have problems in the NBA trying to cover any big that can spread the floor. We saw that from him vs Colorado State. Garza, a two time POY and an even better offensive player than Hunter, is in the G-league too. NBA is hard if you can't cover your position.
Therefore, Hunter will play for Michigan for four years. Problem solved.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
It’s not bigs that’s the issue, it’s guards.
An NBA scheme will isolate him on some lighting quick 2 and he’ll be dead. He’s totally unswitchable which means he can’t be played in the NBA except when the other team also has some sort of plodding big on the floor.
I hope that's the case. And I think Moussa would benefit from another year at Michigan to work on his outside shot. He also gets blocked and stripped in the post more than you would expect for a guy with his size and wing span. In my non-expert opinion, his game when he has the ball in his hands needs more maturity, if you will.
March 20th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Yes to your first question. Probably not to your second assumption. He will be drafted, paid, trained and might even be shoved into some games in his first year (stranger call-ups have happened in recent time do).
Also Hunter is a great basketball player. Right now he is better than Musa in most ways. He just doesn't fit what basketball pays well for in 2022.
March 20th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
You're going to get some detailed, insightful answers from the guys that really understand the NBA game far more than I do. But the main reason is that Hunter cannot switch defensively and cover a stretch 5 very well. You move him out of the paint and he's going to be eaten alive by anyone other than another power center. And power centers are becoming more rare in the NBA each day. Moussa can switch, he has the athletic ability to do it fairly easily and would be worth the draft day bet.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
This is pretty much spot on. Hunter is a defensive liability in today’s NBA and his offensive upside largely gets cancelled out against NBA quality players. He has a possible role on an NBA roster, but it’s not one that’s worth using a draft pick on.
He’ll likely be a UDFA that spends quite a bit of time in the G-League. He’s a phenomenal college player whose game doesn’t translate well to the NBA game. Recent Big Ten stars like Luka Garza and Cassius Winston had similar situations.
March 20th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
Do they play defense in the NBA? And yes, it's a funny retort but also a serious question. I am probably naive about the nuances of NBA basketball but it sure doesn't look like guys are really exerting themselves on the defensive end. The offense is unbelievable to watch and maybe it's so good that it makes defenders appear passive.
An average NBA game finishes well above 200 total points in 48 minutes. Way more points per minute than college.
Yes they play defense in the NBA. There’s simply a ton of excellent offensive players And Hunter being a liability against the offensive styles of the NBA, would only make that significantly more evident.
You’re getting the explanation as to why Hunter doesn’t appear on NBA mock drafts. Yet seem unwilling to accept it
Huh? I am willing to accept it. Of course I am because I am a Michigan fan and I hope he sticks around all 4 years. Perhaps after 4 years he will have a defensive game that translates to the NBA, whatever that is.
The reason he doesn't have an NBA future is he doesn't have the capability to change his defensive fit for the NBA. Hunter is gone after this year to the G League.
He's never going to be able to play defense in the NBA. His problem isn't positioning or instincts, etc. It's that he's simply not athletic enough. When he had to move his feet on defense it looks like he's stuck in quicksand. Moe Wagner was actually a much better defender in college with an offensive game more suited to the modern NBA, and he can barely stick with a team let alone get significant playing time, because of those defensive shortcomings.
Wagner was not that much better defensively. But he had better, quicker hands. So there was some small hope / chance that he could hold up against fellow stretch fours.
You pretty much dismissed his defensive shortcomings by questioning whether they even play defense in the NBA…
But no, Hunter will likely never have the defensive game that translates. Doesn’t have the athleticism. He’ll potentially have a deep bench role, but nobody is wasting a draft pick on a guy you can get in UDFA. MAYBE a late second just to hold his rights (similar to Luka Garza) but he’s not going to be a commodity. He simply doesn’t translate to the pros. That’s fine. He’s still a phenomenal collegiate player. But what MAKES him a phenomenal collegiate player isn’t going to get him far in the NBA.
Others took the time to provide the specific reasons why he would be a defensive liability in the NBA, and I understand and appreciate that. No reason for you to waste more keystrokes.
As previously stated to you, I hope he sticks around 4 years at Michigan, because we need his production. And I hope he gets drafted and makes an NBA roster as well.
VaBlue said why he’s a defensive liability in the comment I originally replied to. Cant switch defensively and cant cover stretch 5s. Didn’t know you needed more detail than that. His defensive liability is already evident in college. It’s not hard to consider how going to the NBA against more talented and athletic opponents is going to exploit him even more.
They play incredible D in the NBA. Suggesting otherwise is to show you haven’t watched the game since 1986.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
Agreed. I think Ivica Zubac from the Clippers seems like a reasonable comparison from a defensive standpoint. It seems like top players like Luka Doncic relentlessly get a switch onto Zubac and roast his defense.
March 20th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
It's not just that he can't guard anything/anyone further than 15 feet away from the basketball but he's also a relatively poor rim protector / disruptor near the basket.
An NBA center needs to be able to help on other guys when they beat his teammates. Hunter's 4.9% block rate is significantly lower than what the NBA wants to see from a college center. And his steal rate at under 1% is very low. Hunter doesn't get his hands on enough balls on the defensive end. He has very poor functional length on the defensive end.
And if you're a center and can't defend the perimeter or protect the rim, there's no place in the NBA.
March 20th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
“But the main reason is that Hunter cannot switch defensively and cover a stretch 5 very well. You move him out of the paint and he's going to be eaten alive by anyone other than another power center.”
Which is why I think the notion that “Hunter doesn’t have anything more to prove in college” doesn’t make sense. Right now he has shortcomings that limit his attractiveness to the NBA, and staying in college for another year or two would give him the chance to work on those limitations and/or develop new skillsets that compensate for them.
How much more agile can Hunter get? The NBA draft is a lot about projection — Hunter adding the three was nice, but it wasn’t a terribly surprising development based on what he showed last year. However, unless he can show NBA execs one of two things, he’s not going to improve his projections:
1) Switchable defense, so he won’t get hunted by NBA guards and wings.
2) MVP-level offensive potential, i.e Jokic, such that his offense is so dominant that it might be worth designing a defense around his weakness. And even in the case of this option, Jokic was only mid 2nd round pick.
The NBA is a lot about matchup-hunting on offense, especially when the playoffs roll around and it’s a 7-game series. They’d try to switch a wing/guard onto Hunter every possession, which is going to lead to a lot of blow bys or a lot of help defense requiring multiple rotations that will likely lead to open shots from the perimeter. So if Hunter isn’t ever going to be that type of defender, and I personally don’t think he can be, then he’s going to have to show his offense is game-changing in a positive sense on every possession, because it’s going to be a huge negative on the defensive end. He’s shown very good offense in college, but he hasn’t shown that level. If he stays, that’s what he needs to prove, that the offense can run through him on most every possession, such that a defense can thus be run around him.
As is, he’ll get a shot in the NBA, because while he’s not a playoff big, he can give you some solid regular season minutes when matchup hunting happens less, and there’s value in that. The NBA minimum is near a million for undrafted rookies next season, and he should be able to get that from someone, so it makes sense he’d still go pro even if he’s not on a draft board.
This right here is the best explanation for those, like me, that don't understand the nuances of defense in the NBA and how it differs from the college game. Thank you.
Defense in college isn't that different. But sometimes it's easier to hide a guys limitations because the offense doesn't have 5 guys that can exploit a weak link.
But Hunter gets exploited plenty in college. He's the primary reason Michigan has a terrible defense. But he's so dominant on offense in college that he makes up for it to still be a plus player (but not by as much as one would think). That almost certainly wouldn't be the case in the NBA. Hence no one is going to take a chance on drafting him but he'll get a shot in the G League. And probably get some two way contracts.
bluesalt hit it spot on. Only things I’d add is that by going pro he gets to spend 100% of his time focused on what his team wants him to work on, versus college where he has classes, his access to coaching is more limited by NCAA regulations, and what he works on is partially focused on his development but also driven by the needs of the team.
Obviously it would be great for Michigan if he stayed, but it probably isn’t best for Dickinson.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Moussa has a lot of potential. But right now I panic and expect doom every time he touches the ball.
love diabate, very glad he's on our team, but he's not NBA or even G-league ready. has weak hands and loses the ball in an extremely high number of rebound and shooting scenarios. his shot is, quite simply, terrible and he even biffs bunnies and dunks sometimes.
he is an outstanding athlete, hustles his tail off, and i'm guessing he is extremely coachable which are all tremendous assets. might be enough to get him to the league now, but he'd do a lot better lifting weights and learning from the premier big man/coach on the planet: juwan.
We're just spoiled by Dickinson. Diabate finishes quite a bit in the paint, but looks inferior next to the rate Dickinson finishes at. Remember how bad Teske's touch was around the rim? See what happens when Johns Jr tries to back down? Diabate (as raw as he is) is still one of the better post options we've had in a long time.
Moussa has it in him. But right now he’s a little too soft around the basket. He often chooses complicated over simple, 5 moves instead of just going up strong. He overthinks.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
Hunter's biggest strength, posting up, is not very valued in the NBA and his biggest weakness, the ability to defend on the perimeter, is highly valued.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
I think they would both be stuck in the G league. It ain't easy to transition unless your really good.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
Teams would have to scheme around HD on defense. He can get by against most teams in college because there’s less space. In the NBA, teams are going to exploit him on the defensive end. Is his offense could enough to negate that?
Moussa is potential at this point. We know who Moussa could potentially guard in the NBA. He has the making of a solid player on the block. If he improves and adds a jumper…think poor man’s Jaren Jackson. Defense will get there with improved bball IQ and understanding of the game. That’s probably just going to come in time.
HD is on the Garza path. Gonna be tough to become a reliable NBA player on the defense end.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
A recent 2 round mock draft I saw had neither Dickinson nor Diabate being selected. It also had Houstan as a late first round pick…
All three should come back. Dickinson has shown he can get better year to year. If he can improve his ball handling he could be an end of the NBA bench poor man’s Jokic. Diabate and Houstan both need to get stronger, and better all around.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
Selfishly agree, but none of them seem especially attractive to NBA right now. Certainly not HD and Houstan
March 20th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^
It's about defense.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Moussa, absolutely.
1) Younger
2) More athletic
3) More translatable skills (rim protection, ball handling with some upside)
That being said, I could easily see him staying another year, conditional on him having the financial flexibility to hold off on the league. It's not a great draft and people like Sam Vecenie have him in the mid 40s, so he would likely get a non-guaranteed deal and lots of G-league time at the next level. I would think that, if the league trusts JH et al to continue with his development (which tbh I'm not absolutely sure about at this point), I would think he would be to spend another year in A^2 working on his shooting, etc. with the hopes of becoming a solid first round pick or even getting in the lottery.
A deep run by UM this year might change the calculus, and you never know what pressures someone might be dealing with so as to go pro quickly, but from a purely basketball perspective there is a lot to keep MD here.
As for HD, I think that he would need to improve his movement a lot to get to the next level. People like Amir Johnson have been in the league with similar skill sets but that was toward the end of their careers where they already knew the game. I think HD would need to be 20-30% more mobile (and improve his range a bit) to be thought of as a viable rotational player in the league.
I'm curious why you doubt Howard's ability to develop players? I can't think of anyone who hasn't progressed while he is hear outside of maybe Zeb.
Well, that's the fundamental issue with Hunter. Defensively there are no more tools to develop. You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear. This is not about Juwan's coaching ability. Look what teams are doing against Hunter in the college game right now-I'm guessing that nearly half of Tennessee's points were schemed around exploiting Hunter-like very directly by either shooting over him or driving past him. There are simply no indicators of hope for him defensively at the pro level. This is very easy to assess-limitations are limitations...he's big-he's slow.
Diabate is the opposite...a tall, long, quick, agile leaper who can defend all over the place-and he is going to mature and get better...perhaps MUCH better.
This is a no brainer from the NBA POV.
I felt like the posters comment was about Howard's coaching and less about Hunter specifically.
For Hunter I think he is what he is. It is just a matter of he wants to stay in college or go to G-League/Europe.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
One would have to believe Moussa and Houstan are back next year and Dickinson moves up draft boards and declares.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Dickinson moves up draft boards and declares.
I think he goes either way. Hard to imagine that returning would improve his draft status. This isn't 1985
March 20th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
Thread jumping: I saw that Memphis lost to Gonzaga. The Zags are a top ranked team, but Jalen Duren had 7 points and Bates had 5. I believe they were both considered the #1 player in their class at different points. I get that Gonzaga is stacked, but truly elite players like Isaiah Thomas, Magic, Bird, MJ, Kobe, Lebron, etc. put their teams on their backs and make things happen. Since the Fab 5 I've loved seeing who were going to get and anticipating how their going to blow up, but it seems like most people don't turn out to be the best player of all time. /s
Dickenson is a man. Moussa is going to be good.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Duren had foul trouble and Bates has been a spot bench player in his return from his absence.
But there are reasons neither is number one anymore.
Duren and another Memphis player both has four fouls within minutes of the second half. Bates missed something like the last 13 games and was only allowed to play 15 minutes as a result. If it wasn't for foule trouble Memphis would have won that game.
All those legends you named played in a completely different era.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
If Hunter could play “all time offense” (like how dads were all time QB in backyard football), he’d be ok. While NBA spacing really helped Franz Wagner, it would hurt Hunter. Luka Garza can’t get regular time on one of the worst teams in the league. He’s a mess on defense, but the point stands. Diabate has that coveted “potential” that gets guys drafted. He’s still spazzy with the ball, but he can run like a deer and move like a guard on defense. His block late in the game was a game-changer.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Defensive ability (moreso potential ability) is the #1 reason Moussa is WAY more enviable to NBA teams. Hunter lacks athleticism is many key areas to make it as an NBA big man. If you noticed yesterday, Tennessee was able to isolate HD multiple times in PnR and go right by him for some easy layups. And btw, Kennedy chandler is being mocked as a late 1st round pick, so it’s not like HD was up against a top-tier NBA draft talent. HD lacks lateral quickness to guard out in space. Also, HD is not a consistent rim protector; he played the role pretty well yesterday, but he often gets caught out of position on all sorts of ball screen coverages and his vertical leaping ability is not really good enough.
Moussa on the other hand, has all the natural athletic talent that screams “potential great NBA defensive anchor”. And we’ve seen some flashes of that potential this year. He has shown the ability to guard in space against opposing forwards and even some twitchy ball handlers. He’s also shown he can be a vacuum on the glass. However, Moussa does have plenty to improve on if he wants to make a long career for himself in the league. He needs to improve his strength in many areas (especially his vertical leap, he’s got to show some ability to play above the rim). Moussa is not a very polished help-side defender at the moment, and that’s reflected by his block rate.
IMO, the best outcome for HD is he gets drafted in the 2nd round, which is possible, and then gets a two-way contract from the team that drafted him. Perhaps he shows enough in the G-league to warrant being an end-of-rotation guy in the NBA.
Best outcome for Moussa is a mid-1st round pick that can be a defensive specialist who will need to play alongside a ball-dominant guard/wing that he will operate alongside in the PnR.
March 20th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
The best outcome for Hunter is that he makes a nice living through his 20s in some pleasant European city and dates a bunch of local ladies, and comes home in his 30s with a down payment for a nice house and a nest egg for retirement.