I don't think we'll beat Utah, but the turmoil in their program has edged me towards optimism.

Not gonna prognosticate here.  Way, WAY too many variables.  I mean, the entire staff was overhauled, and while this staff is downright SILLY what with college coordinators and NFL coaches willingly taking demotions, there are two huge questions:

1) What changes are the new staff going to make, and

2) How long will they take to implement?

Some guys have impeccable track records; others are closely tied to success but their contributions are difficult to quantify.  Harbaugh uber alles and all that, but from the outside we can't tell if a given hire (save S&C because that was very public) was the A-guy or a quick grab because Harbaugh doesn't have much time.  So we really don't even know what the HC thinks is a work in progress, and I think if anyone asks Jim will probably bite their head off.

I DO feel excitement.  Genuine excitement.  I'm not the sort of guy who wants guarantees and instant results.  I know what progress looks like, and in that context there are sure things.  Again, this staff overall is so ridiculously loaded it's impossible to fathom they won't bring success.  But a 2015 prediction is really asking on what terms, which will depend on the staff's evaluation of this team.

What I predict is a transformation.  Hoke's tenure was marred by some questionable personnel decisions.  He always spoke of meritocracy but I didn't feel he always lived by that.  Harbaugh is downright fearless at putting guys in a position to win.  That sounds odd but it takes some guts to bench a star player even if you know what's best.  So expect Harbaugh to move some pieces around; we may even lose a few high-profile players as he tears through the roster looking for winners.  Some guys might move or flip; my secret bet with myself is that Peppers moves to FS.

My money would be on 9-3.  I think we're very likely to lose to Utah (good team plus the 1st game PAC10 road game idea still gives me the heebiejeebies.)  I think we lose to OSU and at least 1 of MSU, PSU, and Minnesota.  (The third the least likely.)

Utah is having some coaching turmoil, so we very well could win that, and it's not impossible we sweep the trio I mention above and even OSU is winnable, I think.  On the other hand, our non-conference schedule is rough, as BYU and the other OSU aren't pushovers and the first B10 game scares me a bit as its a road game and it might take some time for the team to gel under a new coach and with a new (inexperienced) QB.

So, while I think 9-3 is most likely, I think we're more likely to fall short of that than exceed it.

If we get good production out of our QB this year, whichever one we go with, and he stays healthy, we have a pretty high ceiling, probably 11-1.  If we can't get consistent QB play, I think the floor is about 6-6 or 7-5 with that schedule, as our D should be solid enough to get us to bowl eligibility.  But I think 9-3 is the most realistic outcome.

Taking it back? From what or who?

and 12-1 is the ceiling.  For year 1 of Harbaugh that's not bad.  The first game will be telling.

We are a little better off with the cupboard being stocked than the last transition. We also have a major coaching upgrade across the board. Talent will be developed. QB, WR, Safety play continue to be a weak spot.

@ Utah - Jimmy fires up the team in their first test and squeaks one  out!

Oregon St - We beat them at home in a fairly close game.

UNLV - We pound them at home.

BYU - Taysom Hill is too much for Michigan to handle. We drop this game.

@ Maryland - We have better talent and win a close one on the road.

Northwestern - We beat them solidly at home.

Michigan State - Jimmy wins his first rivalry game. MSU dominance is over!

@ Minny - We win by 10 at their place.

Rutgers - We win big!

@ Indiana - We win another one big on the road.

@ PSU - We lose in a dog fight.

OSU - They have superior talent and win a close one and finish 9-3.

Bowl game....who knows.....Edge to Michigan if we are truly sitting at 9-3. So, we finish 10-3

 

I think this season will look a lot like Bo's first season.  Some early hiccups as Harbaugh establishes what he wants to do, better later in the year, and roaring down the stretch.  If OSU is unbeaten heading into AA, maybe we'll even get a game to rival the 1969 upset at the end too.

Its essentially the same team minus our top QB and receiver and pass rusher. Accordingly, I don't see us being competitive with the defending National Champs (OSU) nor the team that finished #4 or 5 in the rankings (MSU) neither of which is taking heavy personel losses. Thats two losses. 

I don't like us travelling to Utah. They thumped us last year, are a legitimately solid team, and until further notice this group of players has a pretty bad track record on the road and in the first game for a new QB and coach. That smells like a loss to me.

I'm wary of the BYU game too. Bronco Mendenhall puts together some pretty solid teams. To me that game is a bellweather of where the team is. I'd be impressed by a win in that one but I could easily see a loss.  Couple those with road games at Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland and I think you really figure out who we are as a team. All three of those games could easily be losses too.

I guess my high end for this team is 9-3 with losses to Utah, MSU and OSU. My low is 5-7 with the other losses being BYU, PSU, Maryland and Minnesota. 

I know HARBAUGHHHHHH!!!!!! I just have no idea how quickly that will effect perfomance of a bunch of severely underachieving players. The schedule isn't that bad. Hopefully Harbaugh can make one of these QB's into something useful, Peppers comes back healthy, and Ty Wheatley can turn one of Green/Hayes/Isaac into a superstar.

I can honestly see anywhere from 8-4 to 12-0. Really. It's not unheard of for a good coach to swoop in and take a talented, underperforming team and go undefeated, i.e. Urban. It's also not out of the question for there to be some growing pains while getting familiar with your new coach, i.e. Rodriguez. I think Harbaugh falls a bit closer to Urban on that scale, mostly because of the system he is trying to run with the players he has. Both coaches were handed players who fit the schemes they are trying to run and one has been wildly successful while the other has yet to coach a game. We'll see.

9-3 would be a good season as our Non-Conference schedule is no cake walk this year. We will catch a loss to BYU or Utah and drop 2 conference games.

Lose to Utah.
The line will improve. Under a quality OL coach plus another year in the strength program at the college level. The RB position is loaded with Issac, Green and Smith. O-Line should be a strength. Finally. The wideouts are there and two will
Step up. With Butt and Hill and Clark and Wheatley I'm not worried about production from the TE.

Defense will be the real deal finally. A quality secondary will help the pass rush out. Pip has a monster year. We see peppers making plays. Dymonte turns the corner and starts playing like we hoped.

The biggest concern we all know is QB but with a tire fire offense you can't expect Morris to look good. In the BWW bowl no one looked good. The best player is going to play. That I know of.

So much of next season depends on if we can get a QB established. I'm expecting we will because Harbaugh is a QB guru, but if for some reason we can't, I'd say we're another 4-5 loss team. If we can, we could be in good shape.

Success of next season depends on a lot of factors: QB play, can the O-Line finally live up to its billing, can we get a pass rush, who out of the receiving corps will step up, etc. All signs seem to indicate Harbaugh can clean up the mess. The question is just how quickly?

I think next year is a slow start, probably drop a game against either Utah or BYU, probably the former, but by mid-October, things look like they're starting to click. I think next year includes at least one game we win that we probably should lose.

As for beating OSU, I honestly don't know that we can at this point. That entire team is coming back save for a few guys. They will be a tough out. But no one thought Harbaugh would ever beat Carroll, so never say never on next year.

I say 8-4 or 9-3, and if the QB play is average to good, maybe 10 wins. MAYBE.

My prediction is that I will be much better at prognosticaing next August.  Lots of things can change between now and then.

If Michigan can get a W against Utah, then I could see 9/10 win season. Confidence and momentum go a long way, especially in college sports. Winning their first game in a tough environment would do wonders for them.

My prediction is 9-4.

this is going to be a long recovery.  We have no QB and a much tougher schedule than people are expecting.  Utah, Sparty and OSU are all guaranteed losses.  We also lose two from BYU, Orgeon St, Maryland, PSU and Minnesota. 

I think it's easy to get caught up in the Harbaugh hype, but 10-2 or 11-1 seems fairly optimistic for a first year transition.

 

Worst case scenario I could see us dropping at least 2 non-conf games. New QB, new staff, new system. Conf could be 4 losses in there. I would say 6-6 is the floor. Hard to say is this the team that got blown out by a mediocre ND team, and we have a long way to go? Or is it the team that hung with ohio state until the 4th qt?

 

I would guess we likely end up somewhere around 8-4, but every game is at least competitive. Which is a big step in the right direction from where we've been the last couple years.

Loss to Utah, I think, as the new QB gets his feet wet. This is not a bad loss -- the Utes will be decent.

We then ride the defense past the next three. This assumes a healthy Peppers and, perhaps more importantly, Morgan. So 3-1 entering conference play.

Something about John Harbaugh's home-turf mojo in Baltimore gets us past Maryland at Maryland, then NW folds. So 5-1 and ranked going in against MSU.

Win over MSU, because Sparty is losing a lot of pieces, and karma's a bitch.

Minnesota is also a good win, on the road. Michigan's defense will be too much for them -- they lose their center and one of their guards -- Michigan fans know what that means.

Rutgers is Rutgers, for now -- a problematic game, but Michigan pulls it out at home. Revenge for last year. Indiana is Indiana, always.

But then a loss at Penn State. Serves as graduation day for the QB (turnovers), and steels the team for Ohio State, the first big signature win of the Harbaugh era.

Preferably erasing Buckeye title-repeat hopes in the process. I experienced that once, on November 22, 2003. It was glorious. 

Thanks Mr Yost.

When we did this thread last week, I said the REAL question was how many times this exact same thread would be posted between that week and the first game.  Someone told me to set the over under at 3.5 - I said haha that's just for January sucker!

I expect 18+ more iterations between now and the first game.  Maybe more.  Most interesting would be to watch how the "win total" moves up as we go thru spring practice hype and august camp hype.  All the 7-8 win predictions turn into 9-10 wins.

Are you asking, with Kevin Hogan or without???

Dave Brandon becomes an anti-Michigan booster, sending bagmen to high-ranked recruits just so they commit anywhere else. Players transfer away from Michigan because Harbaugh makes them work harder than Hoke did to earn their success; those that stay don't believe in Harbaugh's system and don't play to their full potential while skipping classes and committing violent crimes. After the season Michigan decides football isn't worth spending so much money for and goes the way of the ivy league.

 

Oh sorry, thought this was the negbang thread.

In all honesty, I don't see this team as much more than a 6-6, 7-5 sort of team. There's just too many question marks. No QB on the roster has shown anything resembling competency at the college level. WR is really weak without Funchess. The DL is average at best. Safety will likely be a problem.

If I had to bet, I'd go with 7-5. I'll say they lose Utah, MSU, Minnesota, PSU, and OSU.

10-2 and I guarantee a win over either MSU or OSU if not both.  Both at home, Harbaugh will not allow losses to both.

 

End up in either the Rose or Capital One bowl.  Whoever beats UM between MSU and OSU goes undefeated in BTT game and ends up in the playoff.

Right now I see 6-6 (4-4) 

Wins: Oregon State, UNLV, Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana

Losses: Utah, BYU, MSU, Minnesota, PSU, OSU

 

If the team can improve during September and October maybe they can beat Minnesota and PSU to improve to 8-4 (6-2).

Year one 9-3

Year two 14-1

Overly optimistic? I don't give a shit.

Eight out of ten times if a team is going to win a National Championship it will be in the first couple years of a new coach arriving. That's how Myers has always done it. He won two titles with Zook's guys and now one with Tressel's. 

and do it convincingly, we're going to The Game undefeated.

We'll beat OSU and win the B1G East, but lose to Wisconsin or Nebraska in the B1G title game.

So, 12-0 regular season, 13-1 altogether.

2016 we're in the playoffs.  2017 at the latest.  Harbaugh plays in at least 2 NC games, and wins one, over the course of his 7 year contract.

if we get a nice grad transfer 10-2. if not 8-4 tops. BTW, how would u feel today if Hoke was still our coach? stop being depressed Ohio won, change is coming.

9-4, losses at Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, and at home vs Ohio State. Get some extra practices and a qb emerges a touch and we roll in the bowl game. Pre season top 12 going into 2016. The signature win is obviously against sparty, who will be a top 8 team at the time. I'm torn coming off the bye losing at Minnesota, but problems at the QB position cost us on the road. 10-3 just feels a little like a stretch (although so does 9 wins after the last few years), but I just feel like Harbaugh doesnt lose games were not supposed to.