Michigan-NW MBB postgame snowflake thread

Submitted by Joby on January 3rd, 2021 at 9:42 PM

Excellent win where:

Franz Wagner is Andrei Kirilenko

Eli Brooks is Spud Webb

Mike Smith is KJ

Hunter Dickinson is Vlade

Chaundee Brown is Bruce Bowen

Juwan Howard is KC Jones (RIP)

 

What did you notice?

 

TheCube

January 3rd, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^

I noticed Terrance Williams getting early minutes after barely playing for the past few games. Think that bodes well for his development/experience moving forward. 

The Fugitive

January 3rd, 2021 at 9:53 PM ^

He was likely sat down to gather himself for a bit and learn for a few games, seemed a little out of control.

I thought it would be for him to understand his role better but his unnecessary heat check 3 was annoying. Hoisted it in the first half when Brooks was on fire, he would have been better served to make the extra pass like his teammates had been doing all night. He does play with good energy, he'll be a good player down the road 

RXwolverine

January 4th, 2021 at 12:44 AM ^

Dont fuck with our Basketball Program!! Juwan has that rolling. I wouldnt want any part of that train wreck called football. Maybe one day football can become as competative as basketball. Until then enjoy our piss poor product with the only possible man that can coach michigan: jim harbaugh

cobra14

January 4th, 2021 at 7:12 AM ^

Only took until the 11th post for football to be brought up about this basketball team.  Hopefully at some point we can enjoy basketball for basketball and football can take a hike.

One place should be sold out on the regular starting next year 

Michigan Arrogance

January 3rd, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^

Honestly, the light minutes for the starters are pretty big going into the guantlet of the next X number of games. I think they play every 3 or 4 days for at least 10-12 straigt games.

Streetchemist

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:44 PM ^

Yeah does anyone know if other B1G teams had a massive lull in their schedule like UM did?  We played 2 games in like 16 days. I know it was over the holidays but I swear I saw conference games just about every day from mid December to New Year’s Eve. I feel like they could have spaced things out better. Having multiple instances of 3 games in 7 or 8 days is not ideal for anybody 

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 9:54 PM ^

Everything about that game was positive except for Livers continuing to attempt the dubious dribble drives (at some point you just gotta accept that it’s not gonna happen) and NU not taking their starters out for Kenpom time (Curse you, Chris Collins). Here’s some stream of consciousness crap. Editing as I think of more:

Johns is still the definition of a bull in a China shop. But the last two games he’s done enough to be pretty much a wash, which is a good step. Defensive awareness is the main hurdle here.

Mike Smith is the single best thing that happened to this team in the offseason. He runs this whole show and I can’t even begin to imagine the team without him.

Chaundee Brown is in the *perfect* role and it hurts my soul to see people calling for a swap with Brooks. It makes zero sense, he can backup 3 positions, Brooks can backup 1.5. The energy he brought off the bench was huge tonight.

Terrance Williams got legit minutes and looked, well, not out of control! Much better than his last minutes went.

Wagner and Brooks are flat out elite on defense. It’s backwards to me that Brooks hasn’t gotten the “super defender” moniker in the game previews on this site but Livers had one for years. And then Matt EM is throwing shade at him on Twitter pre-game because [rant warning] he used to get in fights about giving a scholarship to Brooks in the first place back in the old UMHoops forum days and can’t get over it? Ugh! Brooks is one of the most valuable dudes in the conference. Someday the writers here will realize this.

Dickinson is going to easily dominate every big ten center sans, what, 3 or 4? I love this man. Extending his range out to 15 feet is expected given his free throw stroke, but obviously still big.

That Brooks alley-OOP, huh!?!?

Who haven’t I praised... I’ll give a shout-out to Livers for reigning himself in after Juwan benched him for a particularly poor stretch in the first half. He was still forcing stuff a bit, but less so. I might come across as overly critical of him in this post, but I think it’s because I know he can play better than he has. And I have full faith in him and Howard working out how he fits in best on offense.

Speaking of... Juwan Howard is going to be consistently competing for national titles as long as he’s in Ann Arbor.

Congrats to Zeb and Jace. Their first of many buckets for Michigan.

This concludes my thoughts. Go blue and goodnight. What a team we’ve got here.

Champeen

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:38 PM ^

Brooks ORTG is by far the worst of the starters.  I do for the most part love his defense.  Franz defense was amazing today, but once or twice a game he gets me sooo pissed because he forgets to box out and his guy gets an easy bucket. 

I need to eat crow on Mike Smith.  Literally like 2 games ago i posted pretty much about how his average point guard play will limit our ceiling and we will not get far because of him.  I posted that at halftime.  No fricken shit, since i posted that he has been the best point guard in the history of basketball!

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:09 PM ^

First of all, this is incorrect. Second of all, you have completely missed the point. I'm sorry, but if this is how you evaluate players then you don't really understand how to use analytics properly. Why are you trying to knock a player for having efficient teammates? To the first point, see the below image. ORtg is the thing in the box that is surrounded by arrows and is highlighted. 

B-Nut-GoBlue

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:42 PM ^

Who the fuck in their right mind is talking shit about Elie Brooks?!  Dude ended up being the perfect 4 year player.  Gradual development each year and as a senior with talent around him he's filling a role and doing it at an elite college basketball level.  He's the type of player every program needs and Duke, Kentucky, etc are yearning for someone of his caliber.

njvictor

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^

Livers continuing to attempt those wild dribble drives (at some point you just gotta accept that it’s not gonna happen)

Livers has seemingly abandoned those pull up midrange jumpers that he was so effective at and I'm not sure why. Maybe he thinks getting to the rack more will help his NBA stock

Brooks is one of the most valuable dudes in the conference. Someday the writers here will realize this.

Brooks is what he is at this point. Undersized decent defender, decent shooter, creates his shot a little, distributes a little. I've always thought this blog kinda overrated him especially on the defensive end. He's been kinda underwhelming this season on both ends, but I think this was his best game this season. "One of the most valuable dudes in the conference" is definitely an exaggeration. He's an above average B1G starter, but beyond I think is too much

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^

I think you're drastically undervaluing a plus defender who shoots in the mid to high 30's from deep, knows the offense like the back of his hand, and can be counted on to be a positive contributor even when the shot isn't falling. That's a dude who is one of the most valuable in the conference. Not one of the best in the conference. There's a pretty big distinction there. Taking a look at the Big Ten rosters on kenpom... I have absolutely zero reason to think I should change my mind on that statement. Hard to see a team that doesn't take him and start him. Or rather, hard to see a team that shouldn't, even if they wouldn't. I'll give it to Wisconsin and Iowa, maybe Illinois. 

I also think you're just off on your defensive eval. On-ball defense is an important thing on that end, yeah. He's quite good for his physical tools. But this completely ignores the other, still massively important, half of defense: off ball. Brooks is elite in the category. If you have a spare buck, consider subscribing to UMHoops.com. This conversation comes up a lot. The site owner, Dylan, is one of the smartest basketball dudes out there and does a much better job of explaining Brooks' impact there than I could hope to do.

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^

Again, you're simply ignoring half of defense by calling him "decent." And I don't know why we're using his stats coming into the game. More data is always preferable to less data.

In fact, you're simply ignoring everything in my reply above. I enjoy debating on here with people in good faith. The dude below and I had a very pleasant conversation regarding Livers' driving. He disagreed with me on that. I am willing to listen. However, you don't seem to be engaging in this manner and I don't really see any purpose in continuing this. Have a good night. 

rice4114

January 4th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^

He is everything we need him to be. Shoots great from the FT line, very solid 3pt shooter, can d up the best under 6'4" guy on the other team. Sure he is a role player. Replace him with Jordan Poole from two years ago and tell me how things work out. And I love Poole just saying.  Perfect shouldn't be the enemy of perfectly fine. Actually I'm hoping Livers doesn't get MGOBLOG'D and keep trying to be the only one trying to get his because Livers is deadly when it comes to him. Everyone stay in your lane and this team will go far. Give me 5 "meh" role players and two big dogs and we are good.

jdraman

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:50 PM ^

I have to disagree w/r to Livers and his driving the hoop. 

I only remember him legitimately attacking the basket three times for the following three results:

1. Drive into a double team where he was fouled, but it went uncalled. Turnover.

2. Drive past his man, forced a bad shot over the NU center, missed the attempt and NU caught the board.

3. Drive past his man again, this time went up with much better body control and banked in a nice layup.

I think he needs to be attacking the rim more, but something seems off with this part of his game. It was never a focal point, but did seem like a more definitive part of his identity on offense last year. He seems a step slower with the ball in his hands this season. Could this be due to the injury last year? I know some people speculated he also rolled up his ankle last game against MD. 

I think if Livers can regain some of his quickness off the first bounce he can reacclimate to being the ~16 pts/game player that he was the first half of last season and seemed like he was in the first few games this season. 

I want to add that he has also seemed absent in the transition (Def to Off) game. In years past, he would always get out on the break; there are numerous highlights of his where he scores open dunks/layups in transition. I hope he can regain some of this ability as well. 

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:55 PM ^

My view: He had three turnovers off of dribble drives today and one basket. Northwestern isn't a very good on-ball defensive team (fairly average in general due to off ball), it was not encouraging to me that he wasn't very close to beating his man when he tried. A 1/4 success rate (and obviously this is coming from more than just those 4 attempts today) is enough for me to say "Hey, let's take a step back and not do this unless it's necessary late in the clock."

But what is forum posting if not a place to discuss disagreement and why we think the way we do. I do disagree with you, but I acknowledge that I'm not perfect and could very well be mistaken. Upvoted for the good faith response. My take is that it's been one of the least efficient options we can go to this season. Coach Howard is much smarter than all of us combined and will certainly figure the situation out. I will note that he did choose to bench Livers after that stretch in the first half. 

jdraman

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^

No I think you are right in regards to the efficiency of that aspect of Livers' individual game thus far this season. I guess I am more so speaking to his ability from previous years to get to the rim, either in half court sets or in the transition game. Again, he does seem a step slower to me, but whether that's nagging injury or trying to let the game come to him, I don't know.

Also, there appear to be two to four players (Smith, Wagner, and then maybe Brooks and Brown) who are more efficient when driving the lane so far this season. Smith and Wagner certainly can get to the hoop and/or distribute from the lane. Brooks also seems to be able to navigate traffic or get past his faceup defender. Brown seems spotty in this aspect of the game, but he goes hard in paint when he does decide to drive. 

I appreciate your candor with this disagreement. I just hope Livers can keep improving and help the team continue to win.

"Coach Howard is much smarter than all of us combined and will certainly figure the situation out"

Amen to that! 

Wolverheel

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^

Agree on the part about Livers being slower. Maybe that's where we differ here. I'm not really expecting that to change this year. He hasn't looked very explosive. I figure you have enough leg injuries and the legs are just gonna be done at some point. If it does improve, look out Big Ten (and yeah, in that case I certainly wouldn't mind him driving it a bit). 

nerv

January 3rd, 2021 at 11:49 PM ^

I'm sorry but I just disagree with the majority of this. Livers flat out kills offensive sets and ball movement more than any other player on the team. Our worst possessions are Livers iso situations.

I agree with njvictor that Livers likely knew the NBA wanted to see more playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. He has definitely been trying to drive the ball and score off iso without any action more than he ever has. And he isn't good at it. He is also a senior and guy who has been in the rotation for 4 years with success. Zavier graduated and I get that Livers feel he is the team leader, the alpha dog now. But the way for him to show that isn't through higher offensive usage.

I don't really think he has lost a step or any quickness. I feel he is just operating out of the offense more than he ever was previously. His forays to the rim had generally been from attacking close outs, off of cuts, or coming through ball movement that gave him a step. Now he is just straight trying to take people off the bounce and he looks slower because that isn't his strength.

I think with our current starting lineup Livers is (or should be) the 4th option. The offense has flowed much smoother through the hands of Smith, Wagner, & Dickinson. We get a good look damn near every possession. Except for the possessions when Livers goes rogue and jacks a contested 3 or drives, head down, into the teeth of the defense.

Offensively I think he just needs to let play come to him more. He needs to dribble drive less and move without the ball more. His way to the rack is off of action or attacking mismatches that usually comes when you're running the offense. Livers is a rich mans Just-A-Shooter. He has the size and athleticism to do more than just spot up, but the offense shouldn't be ran through him.

outsidethebox

January 4th, 2021 at 9:02 AM ^

Basketball is a highly nuanced game...sometimes things are not as they appear to be. I believe you have good points regarding Livers however you are missing the preponderant point in this regard. Livers is the best long to mid-range shooter on this team-and every opponent clearly has a full understanding of this...he is being hugely game-planned for. Defenses immediately collapse on him when he puts the ball on the floor-because they believe it is safe to do so. Anyone else puts the ball on the floor-I guarantee you Liver's defender is not leaving him standing alone outside the arc. Here, surely, Livers would do well to understand that defenses are going to collapse on him...and that he needs to keep his head up and find his teammate(s) whose defender(s) is/are leaving open. You take Livers off the floor and those driving lanes for his teammates suddenly become very clogged. Furthermore, I believe Livers is being instructed to pose more of a threat off the dribble-now he simply needs to take advantage of the opportunities he creates by doing so.

Going forward, this scenario is going to become increasingly interesting. Brooks, Wagner, Brown and Smith are most likely going to increasingly make defenders reconsider the value of devoting so many resources to stymying Livers. Those four were 9 for 17 from deep this game-and they were all very good, virtually uncontested looks...and there is a reason for this being the case.

This is a dream combination of players to orchestrate...and Juwan and his staff are clearly up to the task. (And the bench players evidently understand that they, indeed, are a part of the larger success of this team.) The competition ahead is formidable and there will surely be times when they are bested-but I like Michigan's chances here. And I just as surely would not trade this year's team for last year's. Five guys who can light it up from three...all arrows are pointing up.

Basketballschoolnow

January 4th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^

Agree, Livers needs to accept his role, which on this team is '3 and D.'  Would you rather see Livers drive the hoop, or Smith or Franz?  Livers drive the hoop, or a HD post-up?  I think the answer is obvious.  This is a very good team, but what will make it elite is if Livers accepts his role, stands outside the circle, waits for the ball to come inside out, and then actually, consistently, hits his open 3s.  Even though he is at 40% on the season from 3, he has not really done this.  He can do the other stuff late in the shot clock, which is a nice luxury to have.

jdraman

January 4th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^

Livers flat out kills offensive sets and ball movement more than any other player on the team. Our worst possessions are Livers iso situations.

I don't think this is right. Livers has an ORTG of ~125. That is generally regarded as being outstanding. I'm not disagreeing that so far this season Livers' iso-ball has been a problem on offense, resulting in a high amount of turnovers (he's averaging about 1.7/gm), but you could say the same of Brown and, prior to the past four games, Franz. 

I agree with njvictor that Livers likely knew the NBA wanted to see more playmaking ability with the ball in his hands. He has definitely been trying to drive the ball and score off iso without any action more than he ever has. And he isn't good at it.

I think his NBA draft stock is certainly in play when it comes to his play style on the offensive end. He very well may think that creating shots for himself via dribble-drive is going to get himself more buzz and intrigue from NBA teams. I certainly would like to see him develop that aspect of his game even more. 

However, there are two years' worth of film where he has shown a decent ability to take a man straight up off the dribble and get to the hoop, then either finish at the rim or find an open man. During the 2018-19 season was when he seemed to really be developing that part of his game. It was never the focal point of his game, but there was general utility and success with that aspect of his game. 

Again, I don't think that Livers has ever been a great dribble-drive player and I even said that part of his game was never a focal point of his on offense. But it seems like it used to have been a more reliable area he could go to that would force different looks. 

I don't really think he has lost a step or any quickness. I feel he is just operating out of the offense more than he ever was previously. His forays to the rim had generally been from attacking close outs, off of cuts, or coming through ball movement that gave him a step. Now he is just straight trying to take people off the bounce and he looks slower because that isn't his strength.

There's elements that I disagree and agree with here. 

First, I think you are right by stating that with Livers trying to play more iso-ball that this could reinforce a perception of slowness, but even in the past seasons' film, he did seem to have a bit more of a first step. I don't know if we can truly know the answer unless either of us went back thoroughly through the film. I can't recall, and don't want to do the research, but I am fairly certain that last season's leg injury was his first ever major injury (in college). 

Second, Livers has essentially vanished in the transition offense. This was definitely a huge part of his game from seasons past. Some of his best highlights are slams on great transition play. His top end speed is not anything to write home about, but those really long legs of his would help put distance between him and defenders to get to the rim. He also just seemed to have a nose for filling the right lane when moving down the court to create an open look.

Third, you are definitely right about Livers' using cuts or off-ball screens to flash into the paint and get to the rim. That also seemed to have been a greater share of his offensive identity in previous seasons. 

At the end of the day, whatever elements of his game are helping the team win will make me happy. I just hope we can see some more of his balanced offensive identity as opposed to him being a pure spot up shooter waiting for open looks at the perimeter. 

Offensively I think he just needs to let play come to him more. He needs to dribble drive less and move without the ball more.

I can certainly get behind this sentiment, but it applies for everyone on the team except Smith, Wagner, and maybe Brooks (when Smith is out). It could be a product of the sets we run, or the looks that we are trying to generate, but there does appear to be less off ball movement than in years past. Of course, we are only operating off of a single year's worth of tape from Coach Howard's approach and Coach Beilein used to worship off ball movement. 

At the end of the day, I think there is quite a bit of truth in what you say, and many of your points are well taken. And, like I said before, whatever the offensive identity of not just Livers, but everyone on this team, needs to be to help the team win... well then I'm all for that. 

UMinSF

January 3rd, 2021 at 10:03 PM ^

Fantastic performance. The entire team was fucking locked in on both ends.

I think that team would have beaten anyone tonight. Poor NW didn't have a prayer.

We've now seen just how good this team can be - pretty GD high ceiling!

Go Blue!