Michigan Football Has To Leave The Conference
First, a disclaimer: I am about 97% sure Michigan will not leave the Big Ten. But they should.
Here's why -- feel free to add yours!
- The money factor can be mitigated. Especially as an independent, Michigan will be in a position to dictate terms of its own TV deal. Yes, leaving the Big Ten will mean leaving their sweet TV contract, but they can make their own. If they join a conference, like the ACC which has been suggested, they should be able to negotiate favorable terms upon entrance.
- The expanded playoff helps keep Michigan relevant for the post-season. If Michigan goes to the ACC, that's still a "power X" conference. If there are super-conferences down the road, Michigan will be coveted. If they go independent, the NCAA will not be able to exclude them without affecting ND, which they won't do.
- There are no academic issues for which Michigan needs the Big Ten (research, etc.). The conference needs Michigan much more than Michigan needs them.
- Any desired rivalries can be maintained in some form. This is much easier if Michigan goes independent, but even if Michigan joins the ACC, there is room in the non-con schedule for certain games.
- After what OSU has done here, "The Game" is rapidly losing luster and desirability for me. Even during the awful stretch where we lost so often, at least we were getting beaten on the field. But this? These actions by OSU are heinous enough where they've become MSU to me -- I don't give a shit if we ever play them again.
- After what the NCAA and the conference "leadership" and the conference members have done and how they've acted, principle dictates, almost demands, that Michigan strike back with the most crippling power it has -- taking its prestige and power somewhere that it will be respected . Stretchgate was the tip of the iceberg. The 2016 officiating situation in The Game was a clear shot at the program and Harbaugh. Now this. Accepting rumor and shady PI findings as "evidence". The mob justice conference call excluding Michigan. The meeting to decide the extreme 3-game suspension without investigation or due process. The legal wrangling blocking any recourse Michigan would have. And the timing of all of it planned and executed to inflict maximum chaos, disorder, and hardship on the team. It's horseshit, all of it, and there's no reason for us to stay.
- If we were to stay, something else will be fabricated and come down on us. It's not like staying the course is going to make everything better. So, it's time to go.
The NCAA and the Big Ten hate Harbaugh and Michigan, that has been made VERY clear. To paraphrase the fantastic comment by Bluesince96, would you recommend someone stay with an abusive spouse if they had money? Of course not, and we shouldn't either.
Thanks for reading -- sorry about the length.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:55 AM ^
The M won't make as much money in the ACC and the teams are trying to leave the ACC argument make no sense to me. That assumes that conditions remain constant. Quite possible that if M leaves for the ACC M could remain even on the $ front and the situation for the rest of the league changes significantly enough that teams no longer want to leave.
Teams wanted to leave the ACC presumably for 2 reasons 1) not as much TV money as other conferences and 2) fear that the ACC and, by extension, its members will be left behind as the SEC and B1G pull away. M to the ACC could potentially mitigate both of these issues.
The ACC is a much better cultural fit than the SEC.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Just because you make a counterpoint doesn't mean the original argument makes no sense.
Yes, we could hope that Michigan going to the ACC completely changes the equation, but I think that's wishful thinking (I think "could potentially" as you say is a sign of that). As of next year, the 10 highest revenue athletic departments are all in the B10 and SEC. While Michigan in the ACC would increase their value, it would still be far less valuable than the 2 power conferences.
The M to ACC plan only works for M if it convinces other schools to come along, like ND and PSU for instance.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
Every time I see a post like this (and maybe it’s time to give these posts a rest), “revenge” against the b10 seems to be the priority.
Nah.
First--if there are this many responses to the post, then I think we've proven that we as a community haven't finished discussing this issue.
Second--it's not revenge to reconsider one's business relationships when one's business partners go way out of their way to sabotage the business relationship. To not reconsider the relationship given those behaviors would be denial.
And to be clear: the Big Ten absolutely went well out of its way to sabotage the business relationship. It had every reason--both in terms of fairness but also financially--to follow its own rules, allow the NCAA investigation to run its course, and let the NCAA determine in due course the appropriate punishment. It didn't; it ignored its own rules and precedent, as well as common sense, to penalize not only one of its top two programs and revenue generators, but also one of its two best chances to make the CFP this season, and all of the lasting prestige and revenue associated with that. In short, it made a really, really bad business decision for Michigan and for the conference as a whole. When your business partner makes fundamentally poor decisions like that, it's irrational not to consider alternatives.
IMHO, the claim that Michigan can't leave the Big Ten conference is ignoring the reality of modern college football. Revenue sharing is coming; tiered payouts are coming; further conference realignment, and likely a super-conference, are coming. Clinging to the old model, head in the sand, leads to the outcome like the PAC-12--hidebound and blindsided when the reality was staring people in the face all along.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
1) Several responses are annoyed with it. I'm simply concurring with those voices.
2) Yes, Michigan should consider whether remaining in the B10 is the best option going forward. My point is that getting revenge, while possibly cathartic, would not be a reason to consider when making this decision. While you stuck to generally finance and business-trust related points, the OP's quote:
"After what the NCAA and the conference "leadership" and the conference members have done and how they've acted, principle dictates, almost demands, that Michigan strike back with the most crippling power it has -- taking its prestige and power somewhere that it will be respected ."
That's revenge. That sort of thinking leads to a possibility of short term gratification and long term strategic errors. Maybe I'll change my language from posters making it "the" priority to "a" priority to be more accurate.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:44 PM ^
This is primarily a response to joegeo, if the damned embedding makes it unclear:
- I'm perfectly fine with disagreement and annoyance about the posting about this issue. As I've said elsewhere, it's been mentioned a bunch, so a dedicated thread is bound to annoy some people. Especially on a site such as this with such opinionated and intelligent posters, there are bound to be disagreements about what's content, what's worthy, and what's not. Again, it's fine. There are tons of responses here, which is what I was hoping for -- a central spot to talk about this.
- As far as the "revenge" angle, that's not really what I'm advocating per se. What I do want to see is Michigan getting the respect they deserve as a blue-blood top-tier football program. And the only way I see them getting that respect back is to align themselves with another conference or to go independent. Fergodsakes, our biggest rival is butthurt about our recent success and has turned to a smear campaign basically unheard of in college football history AND the league administration and the other member schools are piling on like it's the right thing to do. The new information I didn't know when I posted this is that the 4-member entity that decided the 3-game suspension has PSU and OSU on it as members -- this is fucking ludicrous. It's so ridiculous I can't hardly type it. Of course our upcoming opponents are going to want to damage the team. There is zero respect for Michigan here, no matter how one spins it. So what happens the next time OSU feels threatened? Out comes the PI and the calls to the commish, who figures he can do whatever he wants to Michigan, because he did last time and Michigan is still around......
- As far as fabrication goes: It's clear Connor Stalions did something. Probably even something against the rules. He's been fired. The NCAA has stated that the actions are not connected to Harbaugh. But the conference, spurred on by OSU and apparently MSU, Rutgers, and others, has fabricated outrage, concerns about player safety (the irony drips, MSU), and dangers to the integrity of the sport in order to suspend Harbaugh to give our opponents, specifically PSU and OSU, advantages in upcoming games. I maintain that there is a lot fabricated here.
Anyway, I've typed a lot of words. Your posts are solid counterpoints to what I've expressed. And that's perfectly fine in a charged-up thread like this.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:04 AM ^
I'm not sure if going independent is a good idea. They would need just as much money as they would get from shared revenue from the B1G at minimum in order for it to work, but ND might be in trouble with the TV contract for the football program. Going independent is a bad idea for all parties involved especially for the other sports.
B1G gives them the most money. Joining the other conference would require Michigan to take a hit within the next few years financially wise so they have to consider it as well.
At this moment, the best thing Michigan can do is to force the B1G overhaul their administration office.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:24 AM ^
Going independent is NOT a good idea. The best thing to do is ride it out and leave when and if it makes sense to. With FSU potentially joining the sec, if a deal was made with UM to join then maybe.
Also depends on ND.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
At this moment, the best thing Michigan can do is to force the B1G overhaul their administration office.
Culture (B1G office) is very difficult to change
November 13th, 2023 at 7:22 AM ^
The needs to part is simply because the conference is making it clear right now that we have no influence or power--as they (other than OSU) take all of our money that we're earning for them--and that they can just dictate what happens to our coach, their own rules be damned.
But honestly, I'm still hopeful that stuff will pass eventually.
To me, it's less about that we need to and more about that we can. No reason to be loyal.
- Conferences are dead anyway. Have been for a long time.
- NCAA as we know it might not exist at all in 10 years.
- People have been fed up and done with MSU for a while. OSU has just put itself in a similar boat. We don't need these games to define our seasons. We don't need these games.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:24 AM ^
UM will not leave BIG. The petite Tony will leave and it will be forgotten. This is about as bad as when they voted to send OSU to the Rose Bowl and we stayed.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:28 AM ^
The world has changed a lot in 50 years.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:27 AM ^
My only gripe with this is
Accepting rumor and shady PI findings as "evidence".
Stalions did what he's accused of doing. There's no dispute about it. Whether it's a violation of the rules, a violation of the spirit of the rule, whether it's actually that big of a deal, the rest of the league's reaction and OSU's hand in this, and whether the Commissioner acted properly are different issues. But there's no dispute he did it. Otherwise, I agree with your post.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
I'm still not clear whether Stalions personally went to these games. Or, if he used his own money to pay people to go. Seems likely CS was at the CMU game, but it is not clear that was not at CMUs behest.
If it wasn't him personally, then I have a real hard time saying a representative of M was wrong to take advanced in person scouting info from someone who had no direct relationship with M, while it is okay for Purdue (and other teams) to take advanced in person scouting from someone (coaches from other teams) who had no direct relationship with there school.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
If Stallions was invited by CMU, that's less sketchy, but he's not allowed to be there according to the rules.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
My only gripe with this is
Stalions did what he's accused of doing
Stalions is not being accused of buying football tickets, nor of giving them away. Anyone can do that without being "accused" of anything. Stalions is being accused of violating NCAA rules, and you are accepting that accusation without evidence that it is true.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:28 AM ^
TBH - I think the academic implications will hold the university back more from leaving the B1G than this football spat.
Short of them leaving for the Ivy League and abandoning the revenue sports altogether, I think the B1G is the best balance of academics and athletics in the country.
As fans, we care more about the sports relationship, but as administrators the school probably values the academics more.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
Michigan will not be harmed academically or from a research perspective. Other than Northwestern, Michigan is the preeminent university in the Big 10. I personally think Michigan is better in many, many respects, especially engineering/hard sciences. Big 10 needs Michigan academically more than Michigan needs the Big 10.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
Academically, I'd take Stanford, Cal, Duke, UVA, Ga Tech, UNC... plus M and ND (sort of)
Over NW, UCLA, Washington, USC, ...
ACC (with M) football gets pretty close to B1G. And ACC bball is better. No clue on non-revenue sports although ACC would have Stanford and M who (wins and generally finish high respectively) in the Directors Cup.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:31 AM ^
I would commence proceedings today...don't need them
November 13th, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
Most, if not all, of these posts contain a provision that depends on Notre Dame. Has anyone considered whether they would be amenable to such arrangements? Recall that there are good reasons for the phrase, “To hell with Notre Dame!”
November 13th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
Yeah, good point. I both personally despise ND and accept that Michigan, and the Big Ten, have long coveted ND in a relationship in which the affection is not reciprocated.
They're just not that into us.
Having said that--I don't know the particulars of ND's prior decisions to stay independent. But ND's TV contract is up for renewal, they're looking for significantly more revenue from it --going from roughly $25 million per year to between $60 and $70 million (I've previously posted the links regarding the ND TV deal if anyone is interested) -- and a partnership with Michigan could very well deliver that without the additional burdens that ND might perceive joining the Big Ten might deliver. Bottom line is--we don't know what we don't know. Worth a call to find out.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:52 AM ^
Two weeks ago I would have strongly disagreed with you. I am with you 100% though. Not only am I with you, it almost feels like the other schools want Michigan to leave the big ten with the actions that have been taken.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Two weeks ago, I would not have felt this way, either.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:52 AM ^
Michigan would LOSE Money by joining the ACC.
I'm going to start my own thread so you folks can get that through your heads.
Unless you're also adding OSU or maaaaybe ND. Michigan gets screwed by an ACC deal.
Again...
Stop measuring Michigan + the ACC vs. The B1G - Michigan.
THAT IS NOT THE DEBATE!!!
No one gives a shit if the ACC with Michigan than the B1G without Michigan.
So great, you damaged the B1G...but you also hurt Michigan in the process.
In order for the ACC to work it *HAS* to be...
ACC + Michigan is more valuable than the CURRENT B1G...which currently includes Michigan (and OSU, and PSU, and 4 west coast teams).
Why is that so hard for you all to understand?
November 13th, 2023 at 8:02 AM ^
Again, the remedial math version.
The current B1G payout is $100 for each team. The current ACC payout is $65 for each team.
Michigan leaves the B1G for the ACC.
The new B1G payout is $70 for each team.
The new ACC payout is $90 for each team.
Hooray, Michigan damaged the B1G and now gets more money than the B1G teams!
But wait, Michigan gets $10 less in this whole ordeal as well.
Why would Michigan make a move to take less money for its department? Why would Michigan willingly fall further behind the top of the SEC?
That is just dumb business and anyone who agrees to that should be fired on the spot.
The ACC needs Michigan more than Michigan needs the ACC. It's the same thing for Notre Dame.
Now if Michigan, OSU, and ND go to the ACC...now you're talking. But Michigan? Do you know how much money they're paying to get the rights to Michigan/OSU, Michigan/MSU, Michigan/USC, Michigan/UCLA, Michigan/Washington, Michigan/Oregon...and then the same for OSU?
Now try that in the ACC.
Michigan/Clemson, Michigan/FSU, Michigan/Miami, FSU/Clemson, Miami/FSU. Crickets.
And not ONE of those games comes close to Michigan/OSU. Which can only be topped by Alabama/Georgia, the SEC Championship Game, and CFP games...maybe.
This year's Michigan/OSU will likely be the most watched game outside of the national championship game.
But y'all wanna go to the ACC?
lol, FOH.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
The issue with your thinking is that the ACC is the only option. It is also limited to the belief that Michigan would be the only team joining.
Just opinion, but this is just an initial stage of considering options-i.e. negotiating a contract with the Networks as an independent, joining the ACC, joining the SEC or the start of a Super Conference with all the top teams in the country. The last option would dwarf the money the B1G is getting and the top schools would no longer need to subsidize the smaller/less marketable schools.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I'll never understand why people are so fixated on the payout. Sure its great, more buildings get built and more admin folks get raises, but that's about it. Does it really matter if UM gets 80 million instead of 90 million? Its just hilarious to me that fans act like they get anything from these deals. We actually get negative value from it for the most part due to having to watch more and more ads as the payouts get higher.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
The ACC team revenues would go up substantially in your example ($25) if M joins. They might be more than willing to have their revenue go up $24, and give the extra to M to keep M whole.
November 13th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
A "remedial math lesson" using numbers you pulled out of your ass?
Just stop. Long moronic posts are worse than short moronic posts, which in turn are worse than no moronic posts at all.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Your reasoning is sound but your math is not. And the numbers you posted are not the actual numbers.
Actual payout per team in the Big Ten is about $70 million.
Could Michigan get $70 million in a TV rights deal outside the Big Ten? Several projections have already concluded that it could. Plus, it no longer has to deal with bad business partners and 12+ free riders.
So: change your hypothetical. IF Michigan could get at least replacement revenue ... why wouldn't it leave? Or, do you prefer toxic business relationships?
November 13th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
A couple important things you are missing. If Michigan left for the ACC, 1) the money would go up in the ACC and 2) go down in the Big Ten. You think Fox and NBC are going to pay the same without Michigan in the Big Ten?
November 13th, 2023 at 7:53 AM ^
Ok, you lost me once you said you don't wanna play OSU ever again. I would imagine 99.9% agree with wanting to play OSU every year.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
So long as Third Base and his staff remain at OSU, count me among the 0.1% and I’m probably not alone on this board.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
With you.
Rivalries are being broken up all the time. Sure not as big as M-OSU, but the former rivals have gone on.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
If they did what it appears they did, play them only if it makes sense from a $ standpoint. Otherwise, $*#@ 'em. They don't believe in sportsmanship.
November 13th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
People lamented the end of Colorado-Nebraska (and on the day after Thanksgiving). Then they were fine with it.
People lamented the end of Texas-Texas A&M (and on the day after Thanksgiving). Then they were fine with it.
People lamented the end of Michigan-ND. They they were fine with it.
People are lamenting the end of Bedlam. But they'll be fine with it.
There's zero reason it wouldn't be the same with The Game.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
The big ten did not need to act at all in this case. The big needs to apologize and make amends. At the very least Pettiti should be fired and his head put on a pike. (not a call to violence. Purely figurative.)
November 13th, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
Nothing will be happening in the short term, but this does open the door for Michigan to start having conversations with other like minded schools. This very well could be the start of the Super Conference outside of the NCAA. Regarding the Networks-If the top teams build it they will come.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
I think leaving could be an eventual reality. It's not a quick process and would not happen this year. However, it could be very much a possibility in the next 5 years depending on a number of factors.
I felt like I read this somewhere and I assume it was most likely a rumor, that the Board of Regents had met to discuss leaving the B1G.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
Ugh. I like being in the Big Ten. I sure as hell don't want to give up playing Ohio State every year in what is by far the best rivalry in American sports, and the idea of having different programs in different conferences is a joke.
Plus, oh my God would we be seen as the whiniest/most entitled program in the world if we left. You think we take heat from the media now? You guys do realize that every school that gets penalized is outraged about it, right? This "the Big Ten hates Michigan" thing is spiraling out of control. Out of one decision, to keep a coach off the sidelines (for games only) for three whole weeks. Geez.
And if we get penalized for something from the conference we move to, do we leave again? Every time we get caught cheating, we leave?
God, talk about taking your ball and going home. Get a grip, people. This will be over in two weeks — and in the meantime we're still able to play, to dominate, to win. The world isn't ending. It's not even ending for Harbaugh.
Breathe.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
I might be inclined to agree with you - but Michigan wasn’t the party in this spat who escalated it. Upon learning of the alleged offense, the first thing Michigan did was suspend the person who was involved and turn over his laptop and other materials so that the NCAA could investigate. It was the B1G that decided a parking violation constituted a capital offense, and acted accordingly. Even after repeated attempts by Michigan to calm the situation, the B1G - including the commissioner and other programs - doubled and tripled down. That’s not something that can be papered over. Bygones will certainly not be bygones.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
You're sidestepping numerous important points. You could start with the concept of due process.
November 13th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
Your post presumes that Michigan cheated, which is a mere assumption on your part, and that the school should accept the Big Ten breaking its own rules to "punish" Michigan by punishing its coach. You want to stay in the Big Ten and play OSU every year in-conference. That's okay, but stop there. All the rest of the ad hominem arguments just weaken your point, which is about what you like.
November 13th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
I’ve been thinking about this idea of a “super conference” and whether a cabal of top-tier programs would join it. It sounds good from a money perspective (“All your TV deals are belong to us!”) but maybe not from a championship perspective. Part of the appeal of belonging to a conference in the current structure of the CFP, etc., is that records matter. That’s why Alabama and other teams play the Eastern College of the Blind Sisters of Charity every year (yet, somehow only Michigan’s “strength of schedule” gets called into question).
A super conference™️ would likely produce a champion with at least one loss and possibly more. I don’t know whether that would be acceptable to fans, the networks, or media talking heads, but I have to imagine there would be a lot of pressure on coaches and ADs to pad records. It bears noting that when the B1G was created, like most conferences, the programs invited to join in those early days had mostly winning traditions. At the very least, they weren’t the lapdogs and also-rans we have today.
For now, a super conference of the top programs may be the right move. But over the long term, it will probably outlast its usefulness just like every other one, and sooner than we might think.
November 13th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
OI think that people could accept conference champions that have lost games in the vast majority of years. After all, isn't that what the NFL fans do?
November 13th, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
Thumbs up for the well-crafted clickbait thread title.
Of course Michigan does not *have* to do anything. And they certainly do not have to leave the conference. There may well be plenty of reasons why they could, should or would. There are also plenty of reasons why they shouldn't and won't.
Rabbling about leaving the B1G is a waste of time and energy in my book. It's not going to be a spur of the moment decision, instead the AD, President and Regents will continually review whether it makes sense to stay or go as they (should) always do.
But by all means go clean out Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork and assemble the mgomasses. Fire Pettiti! Fire Delaney (again)! Catapult Ryan Day, James Franklin and Greg Schiano directly into the sun! Except not James Franklin because we want him to stay at Penn State forever.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
I don't think it does them any good to stay at this point. The higher ups in the Big ten office and as far as we know 2-10 B10 coaches are against anything Michigan does. Right now the whole conference is toxic and Michigan would be better away from it.
I'd be good with not playing osu anymore as well because you know that would eat them up more than anything, especially if they lost 3 in a row on Michigans way out. Their main rival would be PSU.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
I think either Petitti or Michigan needs to go. I would guess it's more likely that Petitti gets canned
November 13th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
After I got over my initial rage on this whole thing, I've back to 50/50 here. 50% says fuck em and leave. Other 50% says fuck em and stay.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
Leaving the B1G seems like an overreaction to a very poor decision by a recently hired asshat that isn't qualified for the job. I predict that after this is said and done the commish will be looking for a new gig.