Michigan Football Confessions: I Was Wrong
So, I need to come clean.
Before the season began, I was extremely optimistic - and in hindsight, delusionally so - about Michigan football this year. In particular, there was a thread in which Michigan's record going into the Michigan State game was discussed. Looking at the schedule, as well as Michigan's talent, I was adamant that Michigan would be 6-1, at worst, going into this week.
I was so adamant, in fact, that I ripped on a few pessimistic posters who had the audacity to suggest that Michigan could be 3-4. In my mind, their negativity regarding the state of the program was appalling. I mean, seriously, 3-4 ... with that schedule!?
Well ... obviously, I was wrong - so very, very wrong. My optimism was misguided. And for that, I would like to come clean to the other MGoPosters here, particularly those who suffered my delusional denigrations. You were right, and your skepticism was justified.
Friends again?
October 20th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^
we would lose to Minnesota at home or even Rutgers on the road. We shouldn't have. With a (previously) proven, (supposedly) championship-caliber new offensive coordinator, a healthy Devin and the addition of Jabrill Peppers (for starters) we should be absolutely no worse than 4-2 right now, with ND and Utah being close-fought battles and not debacles.
The talent is there. Quick exercise: Swap our roster with Sparty or Arizona. Devin and Shane get Connor Cook's development; what could Narduzzi do with our defensive talent?; picture Dennis Norfleet in RichRod's offense.
(sigh)
October 20th, 2014 at 6:48 PM ^
I ALWAYS insisted we'd lose to Rutgers. I just hadn't factored in the overall week-to-week suckiness of the team this year.
I think i predicted 7-5.
I've never been sold on Hoke, even during the initial poop gold season, it just wasn't worth getting labeled a hater.
I don't feel vindicated by Michigan losing, I just finally want us to learn from our (institutional) mistakes. This is going to be such a rough week.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^
I didn't love losing to OSU every year or losing to Appalachain State
October 20th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 4:57 PM ^
After I saw him get owned by Tressel and pretty much every other elite coach in the country including Carroll, Fulmer, Brown, and Belotti plus his interference in the coaching search, never gonna happen.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 5:17 PM ^
19-8 against top ten teams, 6-2 against the SEC and a better bowl record than what Bo had. He slipped a little down the stretch, but give the man some credit.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^
but Tressel ultimately did him in. At the end of the day though, I'd say his biggest flaw was failing to set up a suitable replacement ahead of time, and not embracing the role of "caretaker of the football program" like Bo did. When Michigan needed a strong leader more than ever Carr was nowhere to be seen.
Also if there is any truth at all to the rumor that he vetoed Les Miles that's just infuriating.
October 20th, 2014 at 7:09 PM ^
While I think it is plausible that Carr was unenthusiastic about Miles, he didn't veto MIles. He did not have this much power in the search for his successor or Rich Rod's successor. This is my strong belief, backed by very good sourcing.
However, if I had the power to veto Miles I would have used such power. No one asked me, nor will anyone ever ask me such a question, I concede.
I can't recall my prediction in HAIL. I hope it was 8-4 but I fear it was 9-3. As many have mentioned, didn't the schedule look easy? But (as Seth edited out) didn't i call the OL to be a zero on a scale of 1-10? Shame on me and my analytical failures.
Craig Ross
October 20th, 2014 at 7:47 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
Carr wasn't a level 10 god who could save the program forever and install a perfect replacement- but he wasn't responsible for all that.
Other people actually did have that responsibility and blew it. Why is the entire athletic department, regents, president, AD, boosters, etc. made out to be helpless kittens that had to be rescued by Carr? Why is he regularly blamed for stuff outside of his job description and powers?
October 20th, 2014 at 11:27 PM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 6:45 PM ^
He had such a great record against the SEC because we were always playing a worse SEC team in the Outback bowl or Citrus Bowl instead of where we should have been playing which was a BCS game.
Never conteneded for another national title after 1997 until 2006. Dropped six straight road openers.
Underachieving.
October 20th, 2014 at 10:21 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^
Yes, our one AND ONLY bcs win until 12 years later.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
I think a fair number of people here were in the 9-3 or 8-4 camp (with an undercurrent of 7-5 and 6-6 folks), and based on what the general consensus was at the time regarding the schedule and the optimism about a new OC and - dare we dream - development on the OL with a dedicated scheme in place, it was a pretty reasonable guess. That's just the data - the smidge of data - we had at the time.
I was one such person, and that's fine really. Having seen the season play out to date and to see our estimated prospects of bowl eligibility currently sitting aroung 15% per Massey's new numbers, yeah, obviously the outlook is quite adjusted with game data now insertable.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^
There's nothing wrong with optimism. I do fault those who stood by Hoke and attacked anyone who ciriticized him as being childish or short-sighted.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 4:28 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^
Just always good to have reminders when things get neggy or heated that...well, we're all just talkin' about this.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^
Losses to ND, MSU, OSU and one or both of Utah and Penn State and/or Minnesota. Felt pretty confident about Minny and also PSU under the lights, but a fourth loss was going to happen somewhere on the road, probably Northwestern catching up with us.
This is why this program is in such a deeply difficult spot. Hoke clearly needs to go, but this is a perfect storm. The coaches we want are on the highest echelon, but we have a lame duck AD and obvious institutional infighting. Those two don't mix: The Harbaughs and Mullens are not going to be persuaded by an empty shell of an athletic administration. That's why it was frustrating last week to see the regents emerge from their meeting with statements like "hurry slowly."
One would think that giving Hoke one more chance rather than take a flyer on someone who we really in our hearts don't want (meaning, not Harbaugh or Mullen) would be a play, but this season has been such a disaster in contrast to expectations it's hard to see the fan base holding together for the 2015 season if that were to happen. I don't know how well we'd do with another "settle" hire either.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:39 PM ^
I got negged pretty bad when I stated my preseason prediction: we would have 5, maybe 6 loses. My rationale was not steeped in sound mathematical analysis of the OL development or the Nuss impact. I predicted we would suck mostly because I thought Hoke was simply a poor coach for big time college football. And I have thought like that for years. I caught A LOT of heat for that, especially with some of my more connected Michigan network who WERE 100% behind Hoke at that time.
Vindication can be bittersweet.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:49 PM ^
I thought 8-9 wins was realistic with an outside shot at competing for a Big Ten title if things fell the right way.
I remember back during the Lloyd years I thought about what it would feel like to be a fan of Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota or Indiana with virtually no hope of competing for a championship and looking at a .500 record at best. I remember thinking how awful it would be knowing there was no hope for nothing more than being medicore.
Now I know what it feels like.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
I was beyond optimistic for the quality and quantity of players from the 2012 and 2013 classes, but wary of the lack of starters in their 4th and fith year (a number plummetting since 2011). It is almost always about experience. While we have 2 or 3 on offense, maybe 4 on defense, MSU has 17 total (10 on defense).
Stay positive. It will change.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:16 PM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 5:02 PM ^
with the coaching staff likely holding them back to 7 or 8 wins. Its sad that that was likely not pessimistic enough.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:03 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 5:07 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 5:15 PM ^
but I was wrong, this is a bad football team. Poorly coached, poor execution, poor special teams.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:17 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^
I do think that some people were pessimistic simply because they were angry. I was overly optimistic, but I don't blame people who were more down on the season. But there were people who basically trolled everyone because they wanted to get a rise out of people.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
I was critical of Borges from an OC standpoint, and this year's struggles do not change my stance on that, though I can understand the vindication position.
However, Al was the QB coach, and it does not look to me like these QBs have been developed too well.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:32 AM ^
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | San Diego State | MWC | FR | QB | 11 | 242 | 427 | 56.7 | 2653 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 16 | 9 | 117.0 |
| 2009 | San Diego State | MWC | SO | QB | 12 | 239 | 437 | 54.7 | 3054 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 23 | 16 | 123.4 |
| *2010 | San Diego State | MWC | JR | QB | 13 | 243 | 421 | 57.7 | 3830 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 28 | 14 | 149.4 |
| *2011 | San Diego State | MWC | SR | QB | 13 | 237 | 447 | 53.0 | 3153 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 23 | 8 | 125.7 |
9 YPA is pretty damn good--it was #6 in the country that year.
I guess you can look at this two ways--Borges didn't develop Lindley, since his numbers collapsed as soon as he was gone and he didn't amount to anything in the NFL...or you can wonder how the hell Borges got numbers like this out of a 3-star who was the #34 pro-style QB in the country at rivals.
October 21st, 2014 at 5:10 AM ^
Well presented point. In short, I just think Borges is a better XO guy than a QB developer, so I'd say Lindley benefited more from Al's scheme.
Borges seems a decent OC, provided a well equipped offense. Not that any OC is going to shine given OL problems, but I don't think Borges' approach to the 2013 OL problems was well conceived (scheme-of-the-week confusion, and poor play calling).
October 21st, 2014 at 8:24 AM ^
That's my conclusion too--Lindley benefited from the scheme.
But I think what we're learning this year is that Borges's approach to last year's problems might not have been as bad as was commonly thought. This offense isn't good enough to grind out methodical drives against competent competition. Getting the ball down the field, accepting a lot of negative plays in exchange for some home runs, was a rational choice.
We didn't like the negative plays; we brought in a guy that would reduce them. He did. And now we can't score, and I don't think that's an accident.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^
"Delusionally optimistic" seems a bit harsh. We had every reason to believe that this was going to be a pretty damn good football team this year. Entering the season we saw depth on defense that we had not seen in the four years Hoke has been here, a fifth year senior quarterback who last year showed to be capable of performing at as high a level as anyone in the big ten, solid young backs and a potential first round draft pick at receiver. Just looking at that any reasonable fan would pick anywhere within a range of 8-11 wins... but instead lol nope hoke and brandon prove to ruin everything
October 20th, 2014 at 6:02 PM ^
as last year. Completely different OC....hmmmm.
October 21st, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
A problem I have with a lot of things said here, the things you mention '5th year sr QB', '4th year coach'...these things don't equate to success. There are teams all over CFB with Freshman and RS Freshman starting and 1st and 2nd year head coaches succeeding.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^
but I did say the Oline would suck and it does. Not as much as I thought but it isn't very good and its directly led to Gardner losing his confidence and playing terrible all year.
I did not think we would get manhandled by Minnesota, Utah or Rutgers. That was embarrassing. I thought 7-5 at worse. I'm sad I may miss that by a couple games the wrong way.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^
I bought into the optimism and thought 7 wins would be the basement level this year while 10 wins was likely the ceiling. While 7 wins is certainly still possible, at this point I think we can conclude that 4-5 wins is much more likely.
I admit I was an RR admirer up until his loss to Mississippi State. I was hesitant about hiring Hoke who to me came out of left field, but he had me when he said he would have walked to Michigan, I saw how much enthusiasm he brought to the program and the 11 win season didn't hurt either. Since then I had become slightly suspect of Hoke but really thought most of the blame was on youth and Borges.
Going into the season I was quite optimistic about this season. I thought the defense would be much improved, especially with corners jamming at the lines. I thought the O-line would still be young but slightly improved from last year overall and just good enough to get the job done.
Sadly, the offense was much worse than I feared and the defense while not bad has no big playmakers stepping up and certainly isn't lights out.
I'd like to be optimistic about this weeks game, but after all we've been through the past 7 years (don't get me started on Carr and being owned by Tressell and most top programs) I just can't be optimistic anymore. I think the state motto of Missouri should be applied to this program...Show Me.
October 20th, 2014 at 6:00 PM ^
And while the OL is better than most people feared, I don't think anybody thought Nussmeier's offense could be so pathetic. As bad as everyone thought last year's offense was, through the same number of games the 2013 offense was scoring more than 40 points in regulation per game. Compare and contrast that to just over 20 points per game this year.
October 20th, 2014 at 6:11 PM ^
I thought the OL would improve somewhat and give DG and the RB's just enough to improve. We had a deep bench of WR's just waiting for a good running game and a QB with time to throw. The defense featured a lot of quality at LB and the DB's were poised to be one of the best crews in the league. I thought Nussmeir would get whispers as the next HC candidate as Hoke might continue to be bested by 2 out of 3 of his rivals.
8 wins, easy. 9 wins possible. Hell, would anyone be shocked by 10 wins given our weak (non-rival) schedule??
October 20th, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^
I was thinking 9 - 10 wins.
I expected Devin to lose the melt down games and to have more superstar games like OSU last year.
I saw a little step up from the O-line as a whole.
Derrick green at 220 pounds would be the A-train Green.
The new agressive D - I expected the DB's to improve.
I bought the whole taco.
What happened is the O-line was been poor. Devin was weekly melt down except one QTR vs ND. The staff was to slow to change - Devin run more, change up DB's, etc. They bought the whole taco themselves.
After the house cleaning we will be back to square one again. If they don't get the head coach right this time(#3) it wil take many years to get M back where you and I want it on top.
I'm sorry to be so down my friends. I am hoping for Hoke to poop so gold in Lansing this weekend, but I don't see how.
October 20th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^
I share your pain. I figured we'd be in the thick of a conference race.
October 20th, 2014 at 7:06 PM ^
and it sucks. I deeply love Michigan Football. I thought they would go 10-2 this year.
some fun facts - I actually worked with a member of staff during the 2010-2013 seasons. I was there for every practice in 2010. I actually couldn't tell you anything based on practices on a week to week basis and I watch a decent amount of football every week on TV. After that, I only helped out on home gamedays only. I never attended any team/position meetings but inside Schembechler was rather mundane - it truly is just the coaches in the office most of the time. I did posit some high level analysis at one point but it was never pushed up - 'they won't read it'. The GA's are mostly doing the gruntwork on combing over scouting reports/formations/etc - this then gets passed along to the coaches. The coaches do a brief amount of scouting on their own as well, together as a group. I think the GA's read MGoBlog.
It was kinda neat being on the inside but I mostly kept to myself - I'm a pretty nerdy guy and didn't want to look out of place more than what I already was.