Michigan's Value to B1G
I apologize if this doesn't look right (first time putting in a table).
I went through and looked at the viewership ratings from all B1G teams from the 2022 season to get a proxy on Michigan's value to the league.
Data is pulled from sportsmediawatch.com. In the bottom column is the viewership of the team without Michigan on their schedule, to be fair I pulled OSU off of ours.
Couple of interesting data points I noticed:
- Michigan - OSU game alone gets more or near equal viewership ratings as any other team's SEASON (Except PSU)
- If you removed Michigan from the schedule, 36% of viewership is lost (that does not account for putting a different team in their place, but OSU can only be on one field at a time)
- Except OSU, no two teams' seasons combined reaches the viewership total that Michigan does.
Some caveats apply: Michigan is usually on a larger network (Fox vs. BTN). Our worst rating non-conference game that year was against Hawaii on BTN at approximately 1 million viewers. Team success likely affects ratings (but is it the chicken or the egg?).
Also of note - Oregon vs. Wash last year only got 3.63 million viewers. USC generally got between 2 and 4 million viewers on their schedule. So while there are some big names coming, there is still a clear top two.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
Nice analysis! Another consideration is location and value of viewer. Probably M skews more national as opposed to regional and has higher value customers in the eyes of advertisers
November 13th, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
I have to believe the Michigan-PSU game from last weekend would have had significantly higher viewership this year than last year. Of course, OSU had ND but a lot of eyes nationally had to be watching Michigan this past Saturday.
Next year's schedule, assuming we are still in the B1G and we likely will be (damn), will be even more skewed in Michigan's favor.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
One caveat I forgot to mention in the OP: some games ratings were likely affected by other high profile matchups, I believe our PSU game was broadcast at the same time as a prominent SEC game.
Edit: Our game was the weekend of Tennessee-Alabama, which got 11 million views (very high compared to the average "most watched" game). It was a different time slot, but advertising and national audience probably had an impact. OSU vs PSU was the best game on their week.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
My biggest takeaway from this table? Four people watched the Purdue-Northwestern game last year. And somehow, negative people watched the Maryland-Rutgers game...
November 13th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Rutger is so Rutger, even the viewers get a Viewership Rutger.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:01 PM ^
My other big takeaway - inconsistent rounding of the decimals makes my eyes start twitching!
/s (sorta)
November 13th, 2023 at 6:56 PM ^
And yet they get an equal vote and an equal distribution.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^
Based on the numbers in the table, a conservative simple assessment is Michigan is worth 18%. That would be about $1.5 B of the estimated $8B new contract. The real number is lower since the historical data does not include the LA schools and the new contract did. But $1B isn’t far off.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^
Yep, thank goodness the big ten branched out to get those east coast tv markets.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:13 AM ^
I think someone made a point in the past that by adding Rutgers territory, that then the NY metro area had to add the Big Ten Network -- therefore adding millions of subscribers and more cable revenue than what could occur almost anywhere else in the country. (The LA market added later.)
Anyway, the "value" that Michigan has many factors, enjoying the analysis on the blog. Not sure if the paragraph I wrote above is true, just recollecting previous blog posts.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Outstanding, Ballsoharb. Outstanding. Get you a case of beer for that one!
Thanks for putting this together. It really shows who's paying the bills for the conference.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
+1 for that reference.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:00 PM ^
Always good to see an Apocalypse Now reference. Colonel Kilgore was one of Duvall’s great roles. I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Imho Petitti is emboldened by the 4 west coast teams joining the conference next year. If it was just UM, OSU and the pre-2024 misfit toys, no way he takes this hard line approach.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
That's possible, but I think it's more likely that he just crumpled under the pressure of several B1G teams. If he was smart, he would've looked at these data first to see that he's being put into a corner by a bunch of fucking leeches.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^
This is correct. Logic has nothing to do with his decision-making process.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
I think this legal pushback and unprofessional handling of when Michigan gets its information (after everyone else) is Petitti saying, "No one's going to push me around!!" But of course, he's already been pushed around plenty so....it's like a one way pissing contest.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^
You are giving him way too much credit.
Besides, the league didn't even want Oregon and Washington unless they took like 25% allocations and UCLA only got an invite because of USC.
So this is basically a 4 team league from a media standpoint (UM, OSU, PSU and USC) - let's see if the other 3 will still want to share equally if Michigan is gone.
November 14th, 2023 at 7:53 AM ^
Michigan only needs to insist on a proportionate share to divide the conference. The money involved is a lot more significant than when the league initially agreed to equal shares. OSU, PSU and USC are going to pursue their self interest when it becomes an issue and everyone should realize that the top programs have other options. The Big Ten needs those schools for their next media deals a lot more than they need the Big Ten.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^
This presumes rationality, and intelligence.
What we know: he was easily duped, by coaches and ADs.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
I take a different approach. If I'm USC and I already had to vacate wins and a Heisman, and two years of bowl eligibility, for crimes which are now at worst grey area ... do I really want Pettiti in any position of influence over me?
November 13th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Those don't count.
It's burgers and iPhone cameras at public venues that must not be tolerated.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
Those four entering teams should be a spur for careful evaluation, now, of the pluses and minuses of a conference shift. Including one where we bring other teams with us. Waiting until things re-solidify without at least a careful look at the landscape, probably not a good idea.
A knee-jerk departure isn't in the offing. But I'd be surprised if a careful examination of the implications--and there are a lot of them--isn't taking place.
November 13th, 2023 at 10:00 PM ^
I think Pettiti is just in over his head and got bamboozled by a few fake outraged members
but if he was thinking that way he’d be delusional. If Michigan leaves, OSU leaves, and the Pac4 arent gonna be interested in a league without those 2
November 14th, 2023 at 7:45 AM ^
OSU will not leave unless there is some compelling reason, and I just don’t think Michigan leaving is it.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
How much of the money is by virtue of just cable subscribers in a market rather than actual eyeballs on the screen? Does anyone know?
November 13th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
I clicked on this expecting it to be another snowflake thread; I was wrong.
I wonder if the Powers That Be in the Big Ten looked at this data before inviting the Pac-4 in, because it reinforces what I've been trying to tell people ever since USC/UCLA were announced: west coast "sports fans" are not the same as midwestern sports fans. West of the Rockies, college sports Just Mean Less.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Those 10:30 pm start times were real killers too. I'm not sure how many they will have next year, but even USC was putting up 1-2 million views in that slot.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
I was excited to stay up for Oregon/USC this past weekend. But when 10:30 hit, I was kinda "football'd out" so I went to sleep. I don't think there's much value in that slot for the OTA TV networks on a consistent basis, but I could be wrong.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
That's quite the market grab with Rutgers.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Look at the Maryland-Rutgers game viewership. Really made a game-changing impact with those additions.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
Assuming this is sarcas,m, but for those who don’t remember, the Rutgers-Maryland expansion was in an era of cable markets in which those two schools brought with them the #1 and a top-10 cable market. The alumni eyeballs drove that decision, not the schools.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^
Is this mgoblog? Of course it was sarcasm.
However, sarcasm or not, stop defending the B1G.
November 14th, 2023 at 5:50 AM ^
Im sure their lacrosse viewship numbers are off the charts.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
It will be interesting to see how the West Coast teams fare in viewership when they join B1G! They will get a bump when playing Michigan/OSU/PSU. But what about when they play the others?
I think without Michigan, there will be a significant loss of viewership and thus revenue.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
I think viewership in year 1 with them will explode. But I expect it will settle down. How many people are going to watch a 10:30 pm game with Rutgers?
I didn't add their schedules in this table cause it was too much, but looking at it from the website they seem to be around the PSU tier, maybe slightly behind.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
I mentioned this last night, but Rutgers was added to the B1G solely for TV viewership numbers in the NY Metro region. That's all. It's not like there is some "winning tradition" or academic leadership.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Thanks for checking those numbers. That's what I figured, the new teams would be at a lower level of viewership. I think overall football viewership is low for the West Coast schools. So adding them won't be adding too much to the rest of the league.
Let's see.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
The addition of UW and USC/UCLA makes Seatlle and Los Angelos Big Ten markets now, that adds 16 million or so potential viewers to the Big Tens pie
November 13th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
Except they don't watch much college football.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:38 PM ^
I guess what I want to know is, do those people have cable packages where BTN and whatever else is carried? Like how much of that matters versus eyeballs on the screens?
November 13th, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
I live near Seattle and I'm able to get the Big Ten network. I do have to pay extra for it.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
Does anyone care about UCLA football? They play home games in an empty stadium. Indiana football gets better support.
November 13th, 2023 at 9:21 PM ^
As a kid, I lived right near Pasadena. At one point, you probably could've called me a UCLA fan. And no, I didn't/don't really care about UCLA football.
We'd watch the USC game most years, definitely the Rose Bowl if UCLA was playing... but absolutely no one was planning their fall Saturdays around a UCLA football game.
It was Lakers, Dodgers... some people got into the Kings when Gretzky came to town... but even those teams, it was like going to see the Christmas lights displays. You went every year, maybe more than once, but you didn't really think about it again.
I was little, so others may feel differently... but sports fandom is different in SoCal. Suffice to say I don't foresee big viewership numbers for say, a game at Maryland. That's a 9 a.m. kickoff L.A. time.
November 13th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
It may not matter - the BTN's previous contracts with cable providers was indexed to the number of subscribers in all states with a B1G school. I don't know if the conference was able to do the same with the West Coast schools. If so, that's a lot of eyeballs whether or not they watch the games.
November 13th, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^
Holy shit. Michigan is 1/3 of little brothers annual ratings.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
Walvie scUM!
November 13th, 2023 at 5:44 PM ^
Somehow, Michigan will get by without these teams.
I'll miss OSU and little bro if we can't play them every year.
But I'll be okay.
November 13th, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
I won’t miss msu one bit. That game has become toxic and an annoyance. Not playing osu might be weird at first, but these last 3 weeks have made me despise them even more. But it’s a different kind of despise if that makes any sense . Besides there’s a chance Michigan would see them in the playoffs.