Is MBB Going to Make the NCAA's - Looking Alot Better Now

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Mates,

At the start of the hoops season, and especially after a couple of losses that made us look as tough as Charmin, I was pretty dim on our chances of making the NCAA tournament.   Now we're 16-5 overall with a 6-2 B10 record.  Our losses are to pretty good teams and we have a few nice wins - hopefully to add to that in the next 3 games against good competition.  10 games left before the B10 tournament (6 at home) including 5 against ranked teams (IU, state, Purdue, M-land, Iowa).

So assuming we don't spit up on our shoes for the next 10 games, the tournament looks like a very real eventuality.  If so, then what type of seeding do you think we'll have?

Happy Friday/weekend to you all.   Enjoy the snow and your families.

XM

MGoBoard
Basketball

Phil Brickma

January 29th, 2016 at 5:54 AM ^

I just looked at the schedule, which includes a lot of tough matchups. I think they need to go 6-4 down the stretch to feel comfortable heading into the the Big Ten Tournament. If they go better than 6-4, then it would include another strong win and would really seal their case for the tourney.

Likely wins: vs. PSU (in NYC), at Minny

Likely losses: vs. Purdue, at Maryland, vs. Iowa

Tossups: vs. Indiana, vs. MSU, at OSU, vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin 

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blueball97

January 29th, 2016 at 6:06 AM ^

I think the only likely loss in the group is Maryland. While Purdue is a terrible matchup and Iowa is very good, we didn't play well in either game and were in both until late. I think all of our games against OSU, IU, MSU Iowa, and Purdue are toss ups. With the remaining games - Maryland as games we are the better team



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wayneandgarth

January 29th, 2016 at 9:03 AM ^

I'm flying in for Purdue, so put that in the win column my friend.  Also, NU is a win the way they are playing.  But, yeah, how up and down Michigan seems, you have to see a lot of toss ups in that mix like MSU, at WI and at OSU.  Like someone said, we need Caris to shake off the rust real quick.

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Gluborob1

January 29th, 2016 at 6:06 AM ^

You must admit , recruiting woes aside, Coach has done a hell of a job with this group.

 The injury situation the last two seasons has been as tough as it could be.

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xtramelanin

January 29th, 2016 at 6:17 AM ^

as phil b. mentions above.  i'm not quite as optimistic as he is about going 6-4 and would flip that, hoping the worst we'd do is go 4-6, thus having a 20-11 record going into the B10 tournament. 

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xtramelanin

January 29th, 2016 at 9:50 AM ^

my list is this

1.  unpredicability - we have played in widely varying levels of excellence and not-so-excellent.

2.  tough schedule - 5 ranked teams in the forecast.  in candor, i think state is getting hot right now and could be a very tough game, for instance.

3.  no caris and no certain return date.  we've done very well without him, but missing him still is a problem.  does he play tomorrow v. psu?  if so, will he be sharp against state as his first difficult test since the injury? 

4.  a dash of pessimism.

would love to be wrong on all of this. 

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LSAClassOf2000

January 29th, 2016 at 6:47 AM ^

TeamRankings' full projection as of now for Michigan's chances of making and moving deep into the Tournament are here - LINK

Quick summary if you don't want all the numbers - they project them as a potential #11 or #12 seed right now with estimated chances of making the tournament at 82.3% (see link for projected chances of advancement). Projected conference record of 12-6 and about a 6% chance of winning the conference tournament as well. 

 

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Stevedez

January 29th, 2016 at 7:44 AM ^

That site is odd. Do I read the one table correctly that if Michigan finishes with 20 wins in the regular season, their NCAA bid% is only 11.4%? Which means if Michigan finishes 4-6 in the last 10 games that they most likely don't make the tourney?

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JTGoBlue

January 29th, 2016 at 6:49 AM ^

I thought we would make the tourney, however now it is looking like we have a shot at a big ten championship. 1 game back through first half of the season, likely.

As far as seeding, 3 to 6.



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MGoDillon

January 29th, 2016 at 7:41 AM ^

And a good shot to make a run in the tourney. Not that's were great, but we have a lot of upside. And with the right match ups, we could go deep. Again, not likely but certainly possible. Then again it wouldn't be crazy if we got knocked out in the first round either so...



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MChem83

January 29th, 2016 at 6:51 AM ^

And get LeVert back soon. We need a minimum of 10-8 in the conference to have a reasonable chance of making the tourney, and 11-7 would probably be a lock. That's very achievable off of a 7-2 start, but there are really no soft games in our last 9. Going 4-5 in the second half is by no means guaranteed.

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Qmatic

January 29th, 2016 at 7:43 AM ^

We were 16-5 at this point in 2014. With 3 strong losses but one bad loss to Charlotte and a loss to a non tourney Indiana team. Right now all 5 of our losses would be to tournament teams (if SMU was eligible). The fact that we are even talked about as maybe being on the bubble is absurd

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taistreetsmyhero

January 29th, 2016 at 7:48 AM ^

We need to win the games we should win (obviously): minny, psu, northwestern.

Beating Indiana at home is also very important.

At least pull one out of the road games @OSU, Maryland, and Wisconsin.

Win at least one home game against Purdue, Iowa, and MSU.

I think we fail to do one of those things and go 5-5.

That should be good for an 8 seed in the dance



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jmblue

January 29th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

That's setting the bar pretty low.  Assuming we sweep the PSU/Minn/NW trio, you'd be predicting us to go 2-5 against the rest when four of those games are at home and only one of the three road games is against a ranked opponent.  If we assume LeVert can return and play close to his pre-injury level, I don't know if any remaining game is unwinnable - Maryland is probably the toughest, but we've beaten them already.

 

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mgobleu

January 29th, 2016 at 7:56 AM ^

During the Nebraska game, Dakich said something to the effect of, "blah blah blah...and Michigan is a tournament team. They just are..." so I guess it's happening. I don't know jack about basketball but I watch this team and I personally wonder how Caris is going to fit back into it without some growing pains. I could be all wet though.

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Ali G Bomaye

January 29th, 2016 at 10:32 AM ^

We're a much better team now than we were at the start of the year. Back then:

  • Donnal was viewed as a lost cause. He only averaged 10 mpg and 4 ppg/2 rpg over the first 11 games, with 3 total blocks. Since then, he's averaged 26 mpg, 12 ppg, 6 rpg, and 1.2 blocks per game, giving us the interior presence that was completely lacking in our three nonconference losses.
  • Duncan Robinson was a sieve on defense, and has now improved to merely below-average, which is fine considering his mega-studly shooting.
  • MAAR wasn't contributing enough on offense to compliment his excellent defense (he didn't score more than six points in any of the first eight games). Since then, he's averaged 8 ppg and shot 44% from three, which is awesome for a defensive stopper.
  • Zak Irvin was in his mysterious (back-injury-related?) funk, shooting just 7/41 (17%) from three over the first 11 games. Since then, he's shot 18/42 (43%), giving us another outside weapon, and has been active on the boards and as a distributor.

Also remember that our five losses have been to three current top-10 teams (Xavier, SMU, Iowa) and two other fringe top-25 teams (Purdue and UConn). It's true that our only impressive win so far has been over Maryland at home, but if there were ever a season for our schedule to be backloaded, it's this one.  Our final ten conference games include five current top-25 teams, so we should have plenty of opportunity to prove ourselves. 

We're probably a cut below the top teams in the country, but I don't think we're early-round tournament fodder either.

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BigBlue02

January 29th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^

Deep tourney runs are made with guard play. If Walton or Levert start taking over games, we make it to the elite eight and possibly further. Not saying that is likely, but without Caris, Walton outplayed Tremble and we took out the #3 team that had won 10 in a row

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Richard75

January 29th, 2016 at 9:01 AM ^

We have more work to do than people want to admit.

Our profile is quite similar to last year's OSU. They went 11-2 pre-conference, 11-7 in the league and then 1-1 in the B1G tournament but still only got a 10 seed because there just wasn't much meat there. Their only win over a higher-echelon team was home against Maryland. Had OSU lost one more game, they might've been in trouble.

We're in much the same boat. We've beaten only 3 top-100 RPI teams, one of them Penn State (99th). For context, Iowa, MSU, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin(!) all have 7, IU has 5, OSU 3. We've gotten a ton of mileage out of avoiding bad losses.

11-7 in the B1G gets it done. 10-8 could but I wouldn't want to test it. Either way we're going to have to beat another real team or two.



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BJNavarre

January 29th, 2016 at 9:14 AM ^

Michigan's pretty safe. They don't have to play great basketball to get to 11-7, and they'd be a lock at that point (a 9 or 10 seed). 10-8, they're still probably in. Crashingthedance has Wisconsin as one of the last 4 teams in (scratch that, now 6 to last team in), which gives you an idea how far Michigan would have to fall to play their way out of the tournament.

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SpikeFan2016

January 29th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

I think we probably make it even if we go 5-5 in the last ten games (and assuming we win at least one game in the BIG tourney). 

 

The schedule does toughen up in February, though (especially compared to the second half of January). 

 

We only have 3 games left where we "should win" (Penn State in NYC, @Minnesota, and Northwestern at home). 

 

Wisconsin and Ohio State are tough because those are games that I'd feel very confident about in Ann Arbor, but the road factor makes both true toss ups in my opinion. I think we'll split them, probably win in Columbus but lose in Madison. 

 

I really think that our season will be defined by the first week of February. We have two huge games against ranked (but not top 10) teams and both are at home. We NEED to go at least 1-1 next week. Going 0-2 could tank our season, in my opinion. On the other hand, going 2-0 would mean we are legit threats to win the Big Ten (2-0 next week leaves us in second place on Febuary 7th, a good place to be for a contender). 

 
This may sound dramatic, but both of these games are in Crisler and, of the remaining 5 games against ranked teams, MSU and Indiana are the easiest for us. (Purdue may not be a better team than them, but we match up horribly with them. Road game at Maryland is definitely harder than either of those two at home and Iowa is the best team in the Big Ten.) 
 
Therefore, if we lose to both IU and MSU, I really don't see us being able to beat Purdue, Maryland on the road, or Iowa, and given the possibility of slipping up in a tough road game against a mid-level team, I think that could leave us at 4-6 in the last ten games, which would probably require a semi final run (at the least) in the BIG tourney to get us in. 

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ThatGuyCeci

January 29th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^

While i agree with most of your post.. i think we can defnitely beat Purdue.  Yes they are bigger, but we are more athletic, faster, etc.  If we let them dictate the pace of play we lose.  If we get out in transistion and run them to death, we win.  Also Caris should be back for that game.  And you cant count out our shooting ability either.  That alone can win games. 

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wolverinefan30

January 29th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^

Michigan is not getting the respect they deserve. Yes we originally struggled at the beginning of the year in a few tough games but what we have been able to do without Caris (or Spike for that matter) in BIG play has been impressive to say the least. Don't understand how we are a currently predicted as an 8 seed especially given our offensive fire power and our BIG record.

I'm predicting that Caris will be back by the State game and although his presence may hurt our chemisitry at first I believe we will finish the season with 7 more wins and 3 losses leaving our record at 23-8. Depnding on how we do in the BIG tourney I'm thinking we are a 6 seed this year with the potential of slipping to a 7. 

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