Lets talk about the MSU game
So first, spare the “They have no chance” or “this game is already over” talk. We have been in this position as heavy favorites before, only to fall short in a variety of bizarre ways.
Quite frankly they aren’t very good. They played much better against Wisconsin but if you watched that game, I’m not sure what Wisconsin was doing. I’m not sure there is a single position where MSU is better. Marginally the punter?
Thorne is ok and he’s going to frustrate us by escaping pressure and heaving downfield. Reed and Coleman might be problems at WR. They both seem to thrive at making plays on downfield shots. We are going to have to make plays on the ball because they will likely go deep down the field like the Lombardi game of 2020.
Of course Walker is gone and that’s massive. Their current RBs are average and the OL is mediocre again. When they are on offense I expect them to be ultra aggressive going downfield, they will bring out trick plays and will go for it on 4th down in non traditional situations.
On defense they are better at stopping the run than they are at stopping the pass. Although Graham Mertz inexplicably was baffled by their pass D last week. Maybe they made adjustments or maybe Mertz is just terrible. We have carved up their secondary many times in recent years, but it always seems to be tough sledding on the ground. We have not run for 200 yards since 2006 against them. Ideally we would like to control the game on the ground like we did Penn State, but that might be playing towards their “somewhat strength”. Regardless I think they will try to make JJ beat them and hope for mistakes.
Last key in my mind is red zone offense. Last year we had 7 scoring drives to their 5, but theirs were all TDs and we kicked 4 FGs. We had similar issues with Penn state early. Gotta get 7 early and often and hopefully put this game away. And play for 60 minutes as they won’t go away.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:41 AM ^
Look at the season records both years. The teams were arguably similar.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Both Michigan and MSU were atrocious in 2020. As has been said by others, that was just a game played by two garbage teams and one had to win. And I will have to disagree regarding Milton. He was and is still a terrible quarterback.
Michigan lost to the refs and Kenneth Walker last season, not to Mel Tucker. His game plan was not good at all, unless he specifically planned for one-sided officiating and multiple instances of the called run play being blown up, only to have KW3 pull some Houdini shit out of his ass.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
Because of the "Little Brother" comment.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
It's a good point. Also, half MSU's roster is transfers, and those guys don't have the same lifelong inferiority complex and hatred built up toward U-M.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
No need to break tendencies. Win with what got you there. Running the ball and defense, milk that clock. This will be a game similar to PSU, except half of the field goals will be touchdowns. Red Zone offense will stop trying to be tricky and just pound the rock.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
They're getting their all-conference DT back in the middle. I would hit their god-awful secondary with our extremely accurate QB and experienced receivers. If Cade can pass for almost 400 on the road against them, JJ can do it at home with an improved WR corps against a worse secondary.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
Jibbroni,
why would “pounding the rock” in the red zone work better against MSU - the team leading the conference in goal line stands - than PSU?
October 18th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
The return of Henderson and Slade improved MSU's defensive backfield and defensive line. Better coverage and solid pass rush.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
I mean I'm sure they will be better, but, like two D players don't rectify how mediocre to bad the team has been as a whole. Honestly a lot of this reminds me of the Hoke years where we as a fanbase are talking ourselves into why getting a player back from injury will totally change everything this time!
October 18th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Henderson was part of last season's FBS-worst pass defense, so I am pretty skeptical to any magic improvement tied to his return. One also cannot overstate the Graham Mertz factor. That guy absolutely sucks and is a big part of the reason that Paul Chryst got fired.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
I think there's going to be altercations and disqualifications, with the wailing and lamentations of many couches.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Going into the bye week, it's understandable if they would want to enjoy their break and reflect a little bit longer on a big win. But from Harbaugh on down, they really seem locked into MSU already. I really believe they really want this one and I think they want to pound them badly.
The gameplans and adjustments have been solid this year, and I think that continues. It will probably be closer than we'd like, but I just don't see where MSU has enough D to stop us, and it looks painful for them to score points.
Just don't let the foot off the gas. I hate MSU more than probably most here, but I will give them credit, they play hard for 60 minutes, especially against Michigan.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
I am not sure if you are young or not, but MSU was not good a few times we played them, and still won. Flukes and refs can steer a game way more than you believe. Plus, they play us harder than any other team on their schedule not only because the general hatred between the teams, but because their players were not offered UM scholarships, therefore have a huge chip on their shoulders and play as hard as they can until they fall over.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
MSU was not good a few times we played them, and still won.
When did that occur? Was Michigan good those years?
October 18th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
MSU definitely looked better on D this week with Xavier Henderson and Jacob Slade, arguably their best 2 players on D, are back and healthy. Slade being back allows them to not have to fire LBs at the run game. They also moved Jacoby Windmon back to his natural LB from DE and got Van Sumeran the hell off the field.
With all of that said, Michigan should put up 40 on these guys, similar to last year. MSU is going to lean on big plays (sacks, turnovers, etc.) to try to stay in this game.
On Offense, I expect the 2020 gameplan from MSU. Deep balls to Reed and Coleman. Their offense is super average, though Thorne and his WRs are really strong at back shoulder throws (something I wish MIchigan would do more). WR looks blanketed, but Thorne punts it up and the WRs come down with it. There's no way to really defend against it, Michigan just needs their CB to make plays.
If they can limit the big pass plays from MSU, this game really shouldn't be close.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
Also generates PI and defensive holding - something that worries me with our handsy DBs.
It's like watching Joe Flacco at the height of his powers. Lob it way downfield and hope for a flag.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
I've said this before, but that first part of your post give of super Hoke vibes. Having Slade back is definitely an upgrade, I will agree for that. A dominate DT makes a lot of things easier for everyone else. But DTs also can't play every snap or he will paved by the end of the game. Having Henderson back probably helps, but he was also part of a terrible pass D last year. Are we expecting him to have a magical leap his 5th year after missing most of that 5th year so far? I mean, yes, it does happen, but how likely? And taking a Jake Ryan-esqe linebacker in name only and moving him to true LB...I mean serious Hoke vibes there. Especially with the run concepts Harbaugh likes to run.
All this feels like grasping at straw about a bad team trying to find any glimmer of why they might not be bad anymore. Very Hoke.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
give the points.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
This is typical of our fandom, overlooking MSU.... they weren't truly good the past two years, and yet we still lost. Throw everything out the window, for this is their Super Bowl, and they play like their lives depend on it.
I slightly digress... still don't understand why Harbaugh moved on from Speight, who went into EL as an underclassman, and beat them when they were very strong. That means something. We should have never moved on from him, and going to Shea, seemed to be a hiccup. Speight was improving, and I loved his presence...wish we stuck with him.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
It's okay to move forward with your life.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
This post has so many factual inaccuracies I barely know where to start.
- MSU was not strong when Speight played them in 2016. They were 2-5 at the time of the game and finished 3-9.
- Speight played like crap to begin 2017 and then was injured before the MSU game.
- Shea Patterson beat MSU twice. How is that a hiccup?
- Speight played like shit at UCLA before getting injured again.
In summary: What?!
October 18th, 2022 at 9:49 AM ^
I don't want to talk about Michigan State
It's far too early to discuss trash
October 18th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
Can't wait for this game. Just need to execute and it should be a "W". No way we should lose this game...but I've said that before.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
IMO they will come out trying to be on fire but they are not a disciplined team, nor are they a strong, fast athletic team. 1st half and qtr in particular will be a dog fight but going through the entire game take care of the football, wear them down, take what they give you and beat them into submission will be the game plan.
Also, JJ has to not make the couple crazy plays he has a game where a bad sack or int. Pound the ball, run, force them to be gap sound and when they aren't or over commit to not get leveraged, counter, attack throwing the ball but force them to load the box or die staying back.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Against Wisconsin, the Spartans looked how I expected them to look this year. It could be a competitive game.
The added emphasis on MSU this year is a very good thing. UM should come in extremely focused, and that could make the difference. Let it rip for the full 60 minutes.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
I’m not seeing what many are seeing here. I believe it will be a curb stomping of epic proportions and probably 28-0 by half…49-7 or something final score. Harbaugh will toy with them much like Dantonio used to with us at their peak. In the last few years of this rivalry when MSU is bad we beat them soundly. When they are above average to good is when we struggle (15,17, 21) 2020 was an outlier. I think our motivation to beat them soundly is greater than their motivation to salvage their season. Better talent wins out here. Also, I’m sure that Harbaugh would love to send a message that Tuck is not coming to all of the recruits. Lol
October 18th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
Aside from the Iowa game, we haven't been comfortably ahead of any of our B1G opponents, by halftime, this season. Halftime scores have been close in all of our games and then we eventually grind them down and pull away in the 2nd half. It will likely be the same against MSU.
October 18th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
My dad, a 1955 Michigan grad, always says that MSU lacks character. And it's hard to argue with that. I really think that no matter how hyped up and prepared they are for this year's game, once we impose our will on them physically they will crumble. They may keep trying for a while but this feels to me like the year that we do to them what we did to Penn St. (and OSU last year): punish them up front until they cave like a sand castle in the waves.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:49 AM ^
you have a wise father!
October 18th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
On offense I expect them to try some uptempo like they did last year untill we prove we can blow that up. Probably will try some screens and play action to deep shots to Reed and Coleman to try to use our aggression against us. I don't expect them to get much from the traditional run game, but I can see them moving the ball at times. I would think with an extra week off Thorne will be more in sync with the WRs.
I think their defense will be forced to sell out against the run or get mashed by the OL so I would expect lots of quick stuff from JJ.
I can't see them scoring more than 17-24 points without some sort of defensive or special teams TD. If UM avoids costly turnovers, no stupid penalties, don't react to whatever cheap shit they try to pull, should pull away in the 4th quarter.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
I know Corum is great and the running game is working well, but damn this feel like the game to unlock the passing game. You go throw for 325 and 4 tds and the rest of college football will be like 🤷🤷🤷
October 18th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
MSU is going to score a TD on their first drive and it will be all doom and gloom, but eventually, the (significantly) better team pulls away. Something like the 2019 game where at the end of the first, it was 7-0 MSU, but the final was 44-10 in favor of Michigan.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
I don't know if it will be that lopsided, but 34-17 feels plausible. Now if this is the week where JJ finally finds his touch with the deep ball, then we're going to annihilate them.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
I am hoping that MSU's pretty poor secondary helps JJ build some confidence on the long ball. I think JJ was like 2 of 5 on passes over 10 yards in the air against Penn State, granted we didn't need him to be great at passing the ball given the ground game, but a more consistent deep ball would really take this offense to the next level.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
So first, spare the “They have no chance” or “this game is already over” talk.
Who, exactly, is saying either of these things? In light of recent history, literally every Michigan fan I know is concerned about this game notwithstanding MSU's general, demonstrable crappiness.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
You haven’t hung out on Mgoblog for the past 15 years I guess.
October 18th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
Seth said it a lot last year. Granted it was at the start of the season. But if the guy doing UFRs and FFFF’s (back then) thought they didn’t have the talent to even make it a game with Michigan then a lot of other people did too.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
DOMINATION.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
They have a couple of guys that I really like (Reed, Coleman, Windmon and Slade) and a few others back from injury last week that aren't super talented but experienced (Henderson). Windmon has won B1G Player of the week 3 times already this year. That dude can play.
Basically I think the only way we go and blow this game is a repeat of 2020 where Thorne starts chucking 50/50 balls to Reed/Coleman and we don't finish in the redzone.
Otherwise this feels like this should be a repeat of 2019 where maybe it's close for a quarter or first half and we pull away in the second half. Then you go back and look at the box score and realize this was an ass kicking that wasn't quite as satisfying as it could have been.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Windom has been a nonfactor when decent squads.
October 18th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^
He did quite well in the numbers versus Wisconsin and won B10 player of the week on D playing as a true LB. (I did not watch enough to opine on whether the award was warranted..)
You are correct that once opponents got better, figured out he was the only (healthy) rush threat from MSU, and that he was a LB playing DE..they either ran right at him or gave RB or TE help to his side on passing downs. He has not has a sack since week 2.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
When have we been heavy favorites and lost to them? Everybody is paranoid that Mel Tucker is going to pull a rabbit out his hat, but the truth is that Michigan wins these games. Granted, MSU has a tendency to play us tougher than records would suggest, but we still find a way to get the W.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
When have we been heavy favorites and lost to them?
I've looked through the whole thread. No one has provided a satisfactory answer to your question.
October 18th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
We have been favored in all 4 of Harbaughs losses to MSU.
4 pt fave last year.
21.5 pt fave 2020.
10 pt fave in 2017.
7 pt fave in 2015.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
As many have stated before, forget the point spreads. Those are made based on expectations, not always how good the team is. In 2015, UM had that game won and out rushed MSU. You know what happened. That is not replicable and has no positive predictive value on subsequent games. In 2017, it turns out UM wasn't very good, played back up QB, driving rainstorm and only lost by 4. MSU also was a 10 win team that year. MSU was just better in 2017. That spread was based purely on expectations following 2016 year. The same could be said about 2020 and what such a weird year, it has no bearing going forward. 2021 is the closest. Where UM was legit good, the better team. And they got beat by the Doak Walker winner. It happens. Do you think at this point UM is actually not great and MSU a better team? That's the only scenario your data points have any predictive value.
October 18th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Giving reasons why an underdog MSU team beat us is why we are all having some stress right now.
"Refs fucked us back in 22"
"If it wasnt for those fluky goal line fumbles in 22"
"We dominated in 22 if it werent for those 3 50/50 jump balls"
None of these sound as outlandish as
"If a rookie WR wouldnt of had 200 receiving yards against us just before he retired from football"
"If we would had max protect on our punt we wouldve won that game we were winning with just a few seconds left"
"Wouldve went undefeated in the big ten if it wasnt for that Wake Forest RB transfer getting 5 tds against us"
I mean honestly top those.
Yeah if you are trying to reason on why we shouldnt worry weve all heard it before.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
I fully expect this game to be stupid and close for at least the first half. If anyone is expecting a wire-to-wire blowout of MSU, they are going to be disappointed. Forget what they've done up until now. MSU does not gameplan and play against other teams the way it plays against Michigan. We should all know that by now.
This is now officially a one-game season for MSU, and they will treat it as such. All losses that proceeded this, and the ones that could come after, all of it is forgiven and forgotten if they leave Ann Arbor with a win. They will make some plays they don't normally make. Catch balls they don't normally catch. Make tackles they normally miss. I expect MSU to go full Leeroy Jenkins in several moments in this game. Thorne will just chuck it up deep and let his receivers try to go make a play because "Hey, what left is there to play for besides ruining these guy's season?". Unfortunately, MSU's receivers are pretty good at making plays on the ball.
Should Michigan win? Yes. Should they, on paper, dominate MSU? Probably. Does it help being at home? Absolutely. Will Michigan remember what happened last year? Unquestionably.
Will this mean anything when toe finally meets leather? If the last 15 years are any indication, I doubt it. MSU always makes Michigan earn everything, no matter how bad the rest of its season has gone. You can bet Dantonio will probably be giving those guys a pregame talk beforehand.
October 18th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
I was going to create my own post here, but you've summed it up quite nicely - there's no need for me to do so.
+1 insightful to you good sir
October 18th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
I’d bet dollars to donuts that they play most of the game in max protect and hope to get one on one matchups on the edges. Thorne hasn’t played well this year, but he’s capable of hitting those deep shots and running occasionally on a QB keeper/draw. They will get some points.
On the other side, I expect them to play aggressively: loading LBs onto the line, shooting gaps on every likely run play and blitzing on every obvious passing down. It will look more like IU than PSU in terms of scheme, and for them it should - because the alternative is getting bludgeoned to death. This will open up opportunities downfield, as well as for screens and misdirection plays. If JJ can hit a couple deep shots, this could be over early. If not, it could become more of a slog than any of us would like to see.
My money is on the latter - until JJ actually hits those deep shots, I feel uncomfortable expecting them to happen. Because of that, I foresee a game that feels uncomfortably tight for 3 quarters until Michigan’s superior talent asserts itself. 30-20 or something like that.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
You don't need deep shots. All routes will be open against that secondary.