Joe Milton in his own words on his development as a QB
He basically describes a sort of quantum leap each year as far as his understanding of the game, and also gives an encouraging summary of physical improvement. Credits our coaches, which is nice too, since I've seen a few secondhand comments crediting other parties.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:27 AM ^
I'm assuming that a big part of that leap was probably reps. I never really understood what people based him being inaccurate or immobile on.
I was convinced that he was the most talented QB on the roster after his limited snaps in the Wisconsin game a few years ago. There was one run where he definitely showed some "wiggle" and burst. We all knew that he had a laser arm. But, he definitely didn't fit the labels people online gave him.
I sure as hell didn't see anything that led me to believe that he was less accurate than Shea. Maybe they just kept Joe at QB to let him develop before deploying him. They had the luxury with Dylan in the mix
October 8th, 2020 at 8:44 AM ^
He was a <50% passer throughout his HS career, and he ran an almost 5.0 40! He was known as a 'project' as a QB, despite being the #9 ranked pro-style QB (4*) in his 2018 class. He wasn't anywhere near as accomplished as Dylan McCaffrey was as a QB. Remember that DMac was head-to-head with Jake Fromm for #1 QB as a Junior in HS, before dropping backing into high 4* territory because he didn't do any camps as a senior.
From all appearances, though, the 'project' appears to have been a success!
October 8th, 2020 at 9:10 AM ^
Right. Milton didn't have the most talented receivers or team. Joe's high school team was just 6-4 iirc. Valor Christian had five other D-1 commits in Dylan's 2017 class. One had way more talent around him than the other.
HS accomplishments don't have anything to do with college football. It could be an indicator, but its' not like you can transfer trophies from one level to the next. I'm not knocking Dylan at all. I'm adding context to your points about accomplishments with respect to college talent for these two men.
Milton had a 54% completion rate to McCaffrey's 51% in 2018 and 2019. Small sample size of course, so it's not like McCaffrey showed much more accuracy than Milton at Michigan
October 8th, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
These points are valid, but they don't change the fact that Milton was universally regarded as a project, and McCaffrey was the anointed heir to QB thrones. We were told from day 1 that Milton would take three years - and here we are...
October 8th, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Joe Milton threw 11 passes over 2 years and completed 6, none of them coming in a game one could even conceivably describe as competitive; Dylan McCaffrey threw 35 passes and completed 18, and at least in 2018 was part of a rotation early on with Patterson. I agree the sample sizes aren't highly relevant, but trying to divine anything from Milton's past performance just feels reductive.
Also, Milton played at a HS that has produced a couple of high-end college QBs (Deandre Francois and Trevor Semien), and plays in a high level division in Florida. They didn't appear to have a ton of talent but completing fewer than 50% of your passes isn't usually a great sign for a HS QB transitioning to a major D1 program. I hope Milton is an outlier but it's not unfounded to have skepticism.
October 8th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
" Milton didn't have the most talented receivers or team. "
His senior year he was throwing to two 3* receivers who ended up getting scholarships to FBS schools.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:27 AM ^
Curious. where did you get that 40 time from? The word out of camp was that his 40 time was faster than McCaffrey's. I never heard a verified 40 time, but just from game tape you can see he is faster than a 5.0 40.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
"...almost 5.0..."
The recruiting entry for him (here) says he clocked a 4.8, which can be considered 'almost' (right?). He has apparently lowered that time to 4.6, which puts him on par with DMac. Hopefully it's even better than that - if he's faster than Dylan!
BTW, that 'crootin story also says he was a 45-48% passer in high school...
October 8th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
gotcha. mccaffery but fast.
October 8th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
I believe the quarterback version is "McCaffrey but cannon"
October 8th, 2020 at 10:18 AM ^
Dude stop making things up to make your point. 4.8 is not almost a 5.0. That's like saying a 4.5 is almost a 4.3. You also said that McCaffrey didn't do any camps going into his senior yr, which is also a lie. He participated in the biggest QB camp out there, the elite 11. He looked bad and lost his 5 star status.
October 8th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
And here I thought that you couldn't teach speed.
October 8th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
Here is a link to his high school stats:
https://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/joe-milton/Rxo3Tv10EeS-8KA2nzwbTA/football/stats.htm
Milton averaged just over 47% completions in high school and that is very low for elite talent. He also had 35TD's and 19 INT's over his varsity HS career.
Being a relatively inaccurate passer was always the knock I had on Denard which reflected his completion percentage in HS, His inaccuracies against really good teams plagued him throughout his career at Michigan, although his gift of being a superb runner to some extent made up for this shortcoming.
Perhaps Milton, through hard work and coaching ,has overcome what he did in HS; perhaps having such a cannon for an arm didn't help him and things have turned around. We will soon see.
October 8th, 2020 at 6:26 PM ^
Well we will learn more against Minnesota the first game. I am sure the plan will be to stack the box and make Milton beat them with his arm. If Minnesota is successful with that game plan and wins, it is going to be a tough year. Everyone else will do the same and if Milton is not accurate we could actually go 4-4.
October 9th, 2020 at 7:24 AM ^
If he's D-Rob but taller and stronger, bring it...
October 8th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
Milton also played in Florida and McCaffrey played private school competition in Florida. It does matter who you are playing against and Florida High School football is the BEST in the nation.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:27 PM ^
Likely true with Texas close tho
October 8th, 2020 at 8:48 AM ^
Milton has thrown 2 picks on 11 career attempts. That's not good, but also a very small sample size. Comparing his body of work thus far to Patterson is kind of ridiculous.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:23 AM ^
Shea was absolutely awful last year. Like objectively awful. It's not a stretch to assume that Shea was the third best qb on the roster last season.
He played a great second half against Penn St. and surprisingly decent against ohio st. last year. There's a reason why he didn't get drafted and why he waited a week to sign as an UDFA.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
I think “objectively awful” is a heck of a stretch. The guy did have the most prolific three-game run (passing) in program history.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^
Fair. How much of that stretch could be attributed to Gattis?
October 8th, 2020 at 9:58 AM ^
Patterson still had to execute the gameplan Gattis gave him. And during that stretch, he did. Gattis wasn't the one out there slinging the ball around.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:59 AM ^
I'm hoping the answer is "ALL OF IT."
October 8th, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^
The issue is accuracy and being able to read defenses. Sure, there are caveats with any high school about coaching, teammates, opposition, etc. But If you're a future D1 star you'd think you would be able to complete a higher percentage of passes. The reason that has been more concerning than his arm strength, 40-time, etc. is because there's some data out there that completion percentage doesn't change significantly over time. Milton had a higher ceiling than most of the recent QBs we've signed or recruited....but he also had a much lower floor.
Now, with that being said, you'd expect that being subjected to college coaches, film study, reps, etc. is going to maximize his potential - whatever that is. Hopefully the combination of his improvement and Gattis scheming around his talent will work out. I have my fingers crossed.
But it remains to be seen and I fall on the more skeptical side of the bell curve right now - at least for this season. I really was hoping McCaffrey would stay just to give us options and since at WORST he was going to be very good in the read and RPO parts of the game.
October 8th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
This is a good example of what sometimes ails this board. The problem with Shea was that he was just okay. . . when there were so many hints that he might take it to the next level. In retrospect, I think that he was one of many guys who dazzle with lights-out unconscious play early, then settle into respectable, cautious normalcy. I wish him nothing but the best.
October 8th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
Wow. Y’all sent me halfway to Bolivia before I even got to dish out my debate hot takes.
JOOOOEEEEE. I neeeeddd a lifeboat.
1VA We can debate our positions on plexiglas, bourbon, running backs tomorrow
October 8th, 2020 at 9:29 AM ^
I'm assuming that a big part of that leap was probably reps. I never really understood what people based him being inaccurate or immobile on.
There's two ways to look at it. His HS numbers suggest that narrative. But, that was a long time ago and he clearly has talent if he can be developed.
I sure as hell didn't see anything that led me to believe that he was less accurate than Shea
When operating in a clean pocket Shea can be accurate. He's also older and understood the offense and had more experience. When pressured Shea also got happy feet and made several bad decisions in addition to rarely keeping it on the read options. He also seemed to either not see the open man at times and/or not trust guys like Collins & DPJ to make plays in single coverage. But, there were plenty of times he managed the offense just fine and was probably the safer choice.
Maybe they just kept Joe at QB to let him develop before deploying him. They had the luxury with Dylan in the mix
Hindsight is 20/20. It's not unusual to think the next guy would be better. The back up QB is always the most popular guy when the starter struggles. But, then when he gets in you realize why he's the backup. Both Joe & Dylan had their moments in garbage time and both had their struggles. Who knows if either would have done better than Shea if they got starter reps. Shea was probably the safer bet and less likely to blow a game you should win while at the same time possibly never having the ability to beat a good team as the underdog. Coach's job is to win. I'm sure he went with guy he felt gave him the best chance to do that.
October 8th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
The entire knock on him as a recruit was that he struggled with accuracy, consistency, and mechanics. This was noted not just in his high school games, but his camps as well.
With that size and arm strength, he would have been EASILY one of, if not the, highest ranked QBs in the class and well into 5* territory.
October 9th, 2020 at 8:21 AM ^
You could, of course, just watch the clips of him at Michigan to see him throwing a bunch of inaccurate passes.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:31 AM ^
He’s running a 4.6 40? If he can read defenses and be a capable passer, this offense could set the world on fire. At his size and with our RBs, running that fast will make him a nightmare in any honest option scheme.
October 8th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^
For reference, a 4.6 would be faster than both Patterson and McCaffrey. Field vision will be a huge enabler of a QB run threat.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:32 AM ^
We'll see.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
I sit in the “we’ll see” camp as well. Heard this QB story one to many times the last 10 years. I am cautiously optimistic once again. This may be the year the QB position breaks on through to the other side.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
I'm in that camp too. In the off-season I had my concerns when everyone thought McCaffrey was going to start but my hopes were pinned on the fact that I knew Dylan was going to be a good runner, had shown better control of the Read/RPO game than Shea, and just treading water in the downfield passing game from Shea would be an overall improvement.
With Milton? I don't really care how far he can throw a ball. What I care about is if he has pocket presence to make the right decisions, is he a factor in the read/RPO game, and will he limit turnovers. I'm really hoping all of this hype is true and he can be a solid QB this year. But we have no on-field information to go on, so we're stuck with hype and hope.
My expectation is that he's going to have wild swings of performance - some terrible games, some good games, and overall will be similar to some of our recent QBs were he's solid but leaves us wanting more. And in his first year starting after being so raw? That's fair.
October 8th, 2020 at 10:11 AM ^
Nobody could have worse turnovers at QB than what happened in our very first home game! Nothing suggests that he cannot hold onto a football! But yeah let’s cherry pick his head off before his first Start @ QB!!!
October 8th, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^
Same. I’m excited to see it but skeptical that last years 3rd string “pro style” passer that mostly came in to run the ball is now QB God. I guess it’s possible, but as you say, “we will see”.
I am curious if this dings Harbaugh a bit more if it doesn’t work out though. Probably not with the 5* coming next year, but man. If JM is a bust and DM is now gone...yikes.
October 8th, 2020 at 6:13 PM ^
If DM lights it up somewhere else and Milton busts.. oof. I am firmly in the I will believe it when I see it camp.
October 8th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
Me every fall, drinking the QB fall camp hype koolaid again:
October 8th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
It seems like almost my entire life as a sports fan has consisted in getting continual reps in this exact dynamic. I love to tell myself it's different. Just the same as I did all the other times. I still enjoyed reading it. That may say more about me than it does about the upcoming season, but I suspect I'm not the only one who feels like that.
October 8th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
100% agree on "we'll see". In very limited playing time last season, Joe Milton showed off his cannon arm. He also showed off a few poor decisions where his throw was intercepted. Here's to hoping that all his hard work and time in the system will pay off this year and gets on track to become the next great Michigan QB.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:33 AM ^
Interesting... In reading that, his self-confidence comes across as genuine. I have no doubt that he's improved greatly since his rooki, uhh, freshman season. And it must have been abundantly clear in Schembechler Hall, also, because the 'heir apparent' checked out and departed the scene before practices even started.
How much growth and development do I (kinda sorta) hope to see on the field? Personally, I expect Milton is at least capable of giving us the same season Shea gave us last year. But I hope it's better - I hope that his arm strength gives him more confidence to let the long throws fly with abandon, and the quickies come out fast and decisive. Neither of which Shea provided with any consistency...
October 8th, 2020 at 7:30 PM ^
I think his legs are most certainly an upgrade over Shea
October 8th, 2020 at 8:35 AM ^
Definitely gets me excited to see what he can do come October 24
October 8th, 2020 at 8:35 AM ^
Milton was an incredible talent in Florida, however, he has not taken one meaningful snap yet at Michigan. Let's see how he does against the defenses of Wisconsin, PSU, OSU who are all coached exceptionally well. I want Michigan to have a great QB too but we will learn real soon where he will take Michigan. If he turns out to be really good then you have to ask why he did not play in front of Shea Patterson last year which is a 100% legit question and a referendum on the coaching staff. The coming out of high school and needs years of development to start at QB statement is DEAD now. Kids coming out of high school can certainly start in college.
October 8th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
If he turns out to be really good then you have to ask why he did not play in front of Shea Patterson last year which is a 100% legit question and a referendum on the coaching staff.
No, you don't. If he ends up being great it still doesn't mean he was great last year or better than Shea. You don't play the guy you think might eventually be better. You play the guy who's better right now. The coaches aren't playing for the future. They want to win now.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
Did you even read the article you are commenting on? In it, Milton himself says he wasn’t ready last year.
“My freshman year, I was kind of young and I wanted to play right away," Milton said. "I thought I had everything down. When I came to my sophomore year, I was like, 'dang, I'm glad I didn't play my freshman year because I didn't know. I didn't know the offense. I didn't know what defense they were playing.' I just wanted to run round and throw the ball out there, but it's all important.
"Then after this year looking back from where I am now, I'm glad I didn't play last year," Milton added. "Why I say that is because now I can tell you what a defense is doing before they even do it. I feel like my Quarterbacks Coach, Coach [Ben] McDaniels helped me a lot and Coach [Jim] Harbaugh helped me a lot with IDing coverages, knowing my key parts, knowing that my star, if he's inside leverage and it's two high, then they're going high and wide or they're playing a cover four, [it's] knowing all the small things."”
October 8th, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
This at least is genuinely encouraging. The surest sign of improvement is to be able to look back at your past self and go, "Hoboy, that was bad."
Remember how Runyan went from atrocious to a B+ left tackle over the course of a season? IIRC he said he could barely stand to watch the Notre Dame tape because he could see how awful he was back then.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
It seemed more like 'you don't know what you don't know', self-awareness and humility than not being capable.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^
It goes more toward potential. Potential is inherent, but capability is developed. He was not as capable last year to run the offense. He lacked key skills and abilities. If he had started over Shea, we might've run into a Devin Gardner situation - all the potential in the world, but broken (for different reasons) and never living up to it.
Hopefully, by bringing him along in a measured way, he can now realize his potential with his newly-developed capability.
I'm being a bit pedantic here, but words matter.
October 8th, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
Normally I'm not a fan of your tendency of quoting everything under the sun, but your outdid yourself right there dc. From the man himself!
Like the post one down, I'm hoping his ability to recognize his own growth means he's always thinking, always growing, and willing to recognize he is not a perfect person. I also hope that doesn't translate into paralysis by analysis. Sometimes you can be too smart and too introspective in football.