Hypothetical: Throw that Iowa Pass Int flag
It's the last play, fourth down and goal against Iowa this year. Denard Robinson throws a pass into the endzone. The reciever is interfered with and can't quite bring it in. No flag. Iowa wins. M records its second loss.
REALITY REWIND
It's the last play, fourth down and goal against Iowa this year. Denard Robinson throws a pass into the endzone. The reciever is interfered with and can't quite bring it in. The yellow flags fly! Pass Interference! There will be one untimed down. Denard takes the shotgun snap and takes two steps towards the line. The defense lunges forward on his motion. Denard pulls up and lobs a short one to a TE that has snuck behind the linebackers. Touchdown! Michigan wins! The season ends as it otherwise did. The final record looks like so.
Western M - Win
Notre Dame - Win
Eastern M - Win
SDSU - WIn
Minnesota - Win
Northwestern - Win
#17 MSU - Loss
Purdue - Win
Iowa - Win
#20 Nebraska - Win
Ohio State - Win
Compare that to some other 1 loss teams:
#2 Alabama - 1 loss to #1 LSU, 3 wins over ranked teams #6 Arkansas, #22 PSU, #25 Auburn
#3 Oklahoma State - 1 loss to Iowa State, 2 wins over #11 KSU, #19 Oklahoma
#4 Stanford - 1 loss to #5 Oregon, no #25 wins
I'm thrilled with our season and the Sugar Bowl, and I'm not going to dwell on an unthrown flag. We still wouldn't have gone to the BIG TEN championship game, by right of head to head versus MSU, and so we still wouldn't make the Rose Bowl. Sugar was certainly as good as we were going to do. I can't help but wonder, though, where would we have been ranked? I slot us in about #4.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:47 PM ^
December 13th, 2011 at 11:48 PM ^
to going to the MNC. Think about it. If not for the blown pass interference calls and slow play in the first 3 quarters of the Iowa game, we easily win. Look at the MSU game. A better game plan and non-tornado weather means we win for sure. Hell, we almost won anyways. Of course, how we'd show against LSU is an entirely different question.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
there's the small matter of Russell Wilson/Montee Ball & Co. in the B1G Championship game
December 14th, 2011 at 12:10 AM ^
Wouldn't state still be in the title game? they beat us head to head
December 14th, 2011 at 2:17 AM ^
In a hypothetical situation where we beat both MSU and Iowa
December 14th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
Well in that case we beat Wisconsin in the B1G CG on a last second hail-mary (classic!) and LSU in the MNC by 65 points and Denard gets 5 passing and 5 rushing TDs. It's fun to imagine.
December 14th, 2011 at 11:34 AM ^
they were hardly any kind of juggernaut this year.
They killed Nebraska at home. We killed Nebraska at home.
They lost a close one at 6-6 Ohio. We lost a close one at 7-5 Iowa.
They lost a close game at MSU. We lost a close game against MSU.
Wisconsin elected not to play an OOC schedule, but did throttle a 9-3 Penn State team at home who beat 0 quality opponents all season. We didn't play Penn State, but did beat an 8-4 Notre Dame in the OOC schedule who beat MSU handily.
It would have been a good game.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:17 AM ^
We were flat-out beat in the MSU game. I don't think we can attribute it entirely to the game plan. The only reason we were in the game at any point is MSU's massive penalty yardage.
Having said that, given all the talent MSU loses after this year, I don't see us losing to them next season.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:24 AM ^
And throw the rest of the time? In a wind storm? With an injured Denard? We should have won that game.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:26 AM ^
Their patchwork O-line also manhandled us up front. Edwin Baker rushed for 167 yards at 6.4 a carry. And Jerel Worthy kept up his ability to jump the snap count.
The playcalling could have been better, but we straight up got beat.
December 14th, 2011 at 11:36 AM ^
because we had a bad gameplan....
Would you say we were flat-out beat in the Ohio game because their normally anemic offense scored 34 points on our defense? No, because we actually played to our offense's strengths that game, scored 40 and won.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:51 PM ^
You can't analyze the Iowa loss without analyzing the Notre Dame win. I like my 10-2 in real time, when 12-0 comes along I will embrace that just the same.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:12 AM ^
The Iowa loss was human eror.
The Notre Dame win was devine intervention.
I'll take that tradeoff.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:20 AM ^
December 14th, 2011 at 1:18 AM ^
This is kind of how I look at it, too. We were in four games that could have gone either way this year: Notre Dame (win), Michigan State (loss), Iowa (loss), and Ohio State (win). Our 10-2 record feels about right.
Last year, we won almost every close game (ND, Indiana, Illinois, maybe UMass) and were crushed in our losses, so I thought our 7-6 record was kind of a fluke.
December 14th, 2011 at 9:44 AM ^
Bingo. As unlucky the Iowa game was you came awfully close to an OSU and ND loss. Playing what ifs will get you from 0-12 to 12-0. No point in it.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:55 PM ^
Counter-hypotheticals:
Denard does gets stuffed on 4th down.
The two-point conversion is no good.
We lose in OT.
The win causes a shift in the cosmic flux that creates college football and we end up losing a different game for some odd, unknown reason.
December 14th, 2011 at 3:05 AM ^
Michigan comes in overconfident as a result of the Iowa win, and Ohio State takes a quick lead (as in the real game). Denard has trouble getting into a rhythm and his footwork suffers. He throws up two interceptions in the red zone, including on the final Michigan possession that resulted in a field goal and meant the Buckeyes had to go for the endzone. Meanwhile, the Bollrus, realizing that he has a real chance to keep his job and a lifetime supply of free fish, opens up Ohio State's playbook on the final drive, calling the tightend screen that hasn't been seen since Nebraska. Although not a touchdown, the Buckeyes kick a field goal to tie the game and send it into overtime. Michigan's players, haunted by the beatdowns of the past three years, fall apart and Boom walks into the endzone to keep the streak alive.
Brionte Dunn realizes he wants to play for Ohio State then and there, and uses the rest of his trip to recruit other Michigan commits. Despite the Buckeyes' victory, Urban Meyer is announced as the new coach. He immediately sets to work recruiting, and between Dunn and Urban, Kyle Kalis comes home.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:56 PM ^
Why do you pick that play anyways? How about two plays prior and have the replay officials do as they are suppose to do and overturn the incorrect call on the field? Or the play right afterwards and have Smith hold onto the damn ball and not drop it?
Either of those were wouldbe touchdowns without a mythical play being called. And we were down 8 so a two point conversion AND OT would've been required to win the game.
Take 10-2 and work towards 11-2. God that would be fantasic.
December 14th, 2011 at 9:39 AM ^
Let it be noted that that was the same crew (and I'm assuming the same replay official) that overturned Fitz's TD against Ohio. Let's hope not to see them next year.
December 14th, 2011 at 4:41 PM ^
but it was not the same crew on the field. You can look it up on the box scores.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:56 PM ^
Roy Roundtree drops TD against ND. 9-3 record. shit.
Braxton Miller doesn't overthrow Posey. 8-4 record. double shit.
This game works both ways, at the end of the day, I can't complain about how the season went. That loss to Iowa was unfortunate and a little questionable, but we lost, that's it.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:59 PM ^
Read the post! I'm not complaining about the damn season or the game or that play. At all! I'm simply asking where people think we'd slot if it went the other way!
December 14th, 2011 at 12:08 AM ^
I read the post and I understand what you're getting at. BUT, I think this what if game really is pointless. I'm sorry for coming across as a dick. But I really just don't like the hypotheticals.
We're #13. Hopefully, we'll be higher in 3 weeks. That's all.
December 14th, 2011 at 10:02 AM ^
If we win, could we crack the Top ten? I don't see Baylor losing. Beating VT would move us up one spot. Wisconsin loses to Oregon could moves us ahead of them. IF Nebraska beats SC, we could jump them (big if). Does Kansas State losing to Arkansas drop them far enough? They may have to lose badly to Arkansas. Best case seems like 9. But it will be tricky to squeeze in.
December 14th, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
I just don't get how Kansas State is five spots ahead of Michigan. Both teams are 10-2 and K-State lost to Oklahoma by 41 points! They have decent (close) wins against Baylor and Texas. Michigan blew out Nebraska.
I'm not saying that Michigan is better....but five spots seems like a lot.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:28 PM ^
K-state's win against Texas was not quality. They had 120 yards of total offense, and won because Texas's offense just sucks. Having watched 6 K-state games this year, and 10 Michigan games, I am saying Michigan is better. And it's really not that close. K-state is the most overrated team in the country.
December 14th, 2011 at 10:44 AM ^
Right, but what's the point of focusing on that one play when there are many others that, if they had gone the other way, probably would have resulted in a loss for us (Roundtree's TD catch against ND and Miller's overthrow of Posey are two great examples)?
December 13th, 2011 at 11:57 PM ^
we still would have to make the 2 point conversion to take the Iowa game to OT.
So I'm not too bitter about that loss.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:04 AM ^
I think we'd make the 2-point conversion. on 4 downs from close to the goal line (don't remember the yard line, close to the 3 where we would go for 2 from), we scored on half of those plays if we didn't get taken to boner city by the refs. We also didn't really have the choice to run it in with Denard due to the time situation. There was a good chance we would have converted, but there's also the chance for us to totally blow it.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:58 PM ^
Hmmm, interesting. Now tell me about the two-point conversion attempt and overtime went. THEN you might be onto something.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:58 PM ^
Ask people hypothetically where you think we'd slot in the polls, explain that you're not complaining and in no way disatisfied with the season and it's just a thought excersize, and nobody bothers to read the damn thing and instead suggests you're just complaining about a season you should be happy about. Geeze...
December 14th, 2011 at 12:32 AM ^
The problem with the exercise is that nothing changes except a number nobody cares about. Except that instead of spending a week making ourselves dizzy over the possible BCS scenarios on championship weekend, we all kick back and have a beer because we're already in.
December 14th, 2011 at 4:43 PM ^
Iowa didn't collapse in the 2nd half. They were up 21-7 but had 80 yards. Their scores came after an int return to the Michigan 1 and a Tim Dwight TD on a kickoff.
All that happened in the 2nd half was Michigan stopped making boneheaded mistakes.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:46 AM ^
Remember Michigan Football in the 1990s? Between the 1991 Rose Bowl loss to Washington and the 45-17 destruction against Tennessee in 2001, I don't think Michigan was legitimately blown-out of any game for that entire decade. Just about every season, you could look back at a few plays that could have swung us from a 10-3 type finish to 12-1, or even undefeated--though many years, there were an equal number of plays that could have made us 6-6. Heck, as great as the '97 team was, they could easily have lost three games (imagine if Woodson doesn't pick Leaf in the end zone, or if ND punches in one our late turnovers for a TD, or if Iowa doesn't collapse in the second half...).
In other words, that's just what college football is like when you have a competetive program. For that one time you go undefeated, you may have to endure multiple seasons where you miss it by a painfully small margin. It's sort of that "game of inches" concept but applied to the whole season.
December 14th, 2011 at 1:35 AM ^
Agree completely. When you start thinking about odds stacked on top of other odds, the chances of an undefeated season occuring in any given year are very small. I mean, beyond LSU this year, or Texas/USC six years ago, how many tiny margins take the teams in between from 13/14-0 to a two-loss team?
Every single one of those things need to happen for a team short of those few-times-a-decade dominant teams (even then, what was the injury status, or taking a chance on a recruit to pan out, ect.).
December 14th, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
I was thinking about this the other day as well. It turns out that the Iowa loss was almost "free". We wound up the same place we would have if we had won.
Had we won, we still would not have made it to the B1G CG. We would also not have made it to the NC game. That's only reserved for SEC teams apparently, even if they don't win their Division much less their conference game. We still would have gone to the Sugar Bowl. If we win that bowl, we will be rated almost as high as if we had won the Iowa game.
About the only difference would have been Saturday, Dec 3rd. We would not have had to so closely watch the Houston-So. Miss, TCU-UNLV, Kansas State-Iowa State, Baylor-Texas, LSU-Alabama, Ok State-Oklahoma, Wisconsin-MSU games to see their impact on our chances at a BCS bowl.
But I had a great time watching all those games and F5'ing MGoBlog to see our latest BCS projections. I never had a vested interest in the outcomes of that many games in one day before. And it all worked out.
Color me happy.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:01 AM ^
I agree, the UTL game could have easily ended up as a curb stomping with the way ND had been scoring. That was one of the most improbable comebacks I've seen... but yet, I always felt like they were going to make a game of it until the end. Michigan State outplayed UM for most of the game, but Michigan had a very small shot to win. I do not think that's a game we win based on how thoroughly they had been dominating.
I don't think many people realize how close we were to losing that OSU game. Miller missed Posey for at least 14, if not 21 points, easy. If you're gonna do hypothetical, it's gotta go both ways.
Still hate that Iowa job though.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:10 AM ^
What would RichRod's record have been had he been coaching here still?
December 14th, 2011 at 12:04 AM ^
I think we score the 2 point conversion on that subsequent try. I also think we're going to beat that Iowa team given the OT chance, based on the respective offenses the teams possess, the stops the D has made this year, and the heart in general this team has displayed this year.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
If the team all wore the road uniforms with piping vs. MSU would we have won the game that day?
December 14th, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
I'll play along. If we win the Iowa game we'd probably be ranked somewhere between 5-7. We were 15 going into that game. No way we ever get ahead of Stanford who is sitting at 4.
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<br>In the end the loss doesn't mean much other than a few spots in rank, although it sure stung when it happened.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:10 AM ^
I wonder how much State's BCS Position would have been boosted if, hypothetically, they were the only team to beat us and we were as highly ranked as people are theorizing. Enough to get them BCS eligible (but still passed over by 11-1 Michigan!)? Probably.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:11 AM ^
In 9 out of 10 alternative realities Notre Dame wins Under The Lights, so you should probably take that into account.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:16 AM ^
We drove 90 yards in 23 seconds for the winning Touchdown. That's not gonna happen every day.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:25 AM ^
80 yards.
That game was one for the ages for sure.
December 14th, 2011 at 10:12 AM ^
Not to mention 311 and 4 TDs in 17:13 seconds total.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:34 AM ^
I think it's a valid hypothetical because it shows how close we came to being ranked among the elite. Personally, i think we came closer to losing UTL and against Ohio, so the prospect of a one-loss season was less likely, in my opinion, than a four-loss season.
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<br>That being said, am I the only one who watched our last pass against Iowa this year and thought of the 1990 UM/MSU game in which we ran the exact same play against the Spartans for (essentially) the win? That year, Desmond was interfered with just like in this year's Iowa game, costing us the game. I wonder if Hoke's play call was made with the MSU game in mind. Am I crazy, or did anyone else notice that?
December 14th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^
Difference being that Desmond still caught that ball and it was ruled incomplete with no flag. One of the all-time jobs.
December 14th, 2011 at 12:44 AM ^
lol the OP can't win.